[7:46] I'm not expecting anything at all at the July meeting.

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[10:18] 76% just north of 76% they don't see a cut in 2026 and just north of 17% think that we'll have exactly one cut. Do you think we'll see a cut at all this year or is that... Well, I don't think the next move is going to be a hike.

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[0:00] I I don't like to get into the numbers game, but you know, I I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people had put out these numbers, OH MY GOD, he's crazy. Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price go of these commodities go up by 7x on average

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[0:00] I I don't like to get into the numbers game, but you know, I I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people had put out these numbers, OH MY GOD, he's crazy. Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price go of these commodities go up by 7x on average

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[9:28] physical supply will ultimately win relative to physical demand in terms of bringing those values up.

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[1:20] There's a lot of value in pure play silver miners. Um, when I say pure play, I mean silver miners that are very close to the silver the itself that don't have to process other types of metals in their deposits. So things like ya gold and silver which is pure play um and even first majestic in Mexico that's been quite depressed.

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[2:29] Future utilities are buying it at 95 100. So therefore it's going to go up to that level.

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[2:35] The miners who mine uranium in the western hemisphere have underperformed the price. So it's one of the few areas where the miners have actually significantly underperformed a very stable to increasingly higher price. That's an opportunity. [...] things like UEC have such good upside potential.

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[2:09] there are tremendous opportunities in copper and in junior copper developers around the world because we are heading into a massive scarcity and supply of copper for not just future demand but current demand.

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[17:04] we targeted oil to go back to the 70 or 80s level a couple months ago, and that's kind of what we're seeing. Can it get to 81 82 if there's continued aggression? Sure. But we're basically in that in that sort of ban.

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[18:17] That's why we're not going to see oil prices come back down to the 60s or even below that that we saw pre the period of this war. That's why I think we stay in that 7080s range.

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[17:20] the inflation numbers that just came out that the Fed was looking at, the headlines were scared about are going to creep down because they're not pricing in what was $110 to $138 oil for that aberration in that quarter. And then going down to 95 110. They're going to start to price in that 70 80 level, that's going to bring numbers down.

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[13:43] there's basically a 5:1 appreciation of gold relative to purchasing power, relative to inflation versus cash. And it's five times to two times versus if you invested in treasury bonds [...] it does continue to have that value [...] it definitely not just keeps up with debasement, it actually outpaces debasement.

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[14:13] if you go down the curve in terms of supply and you get to the major minor and then you get to the developing minors that multiple becomes 15 times for major minors and it becomes 100 times for the appropriate right jurisdiction well-managed junior miners.

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[3:03] I don't want to sugarcoat the fact that I think there's still a lot of negativity ahead on average for the national housing market.

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[10:02] What I think we're going to see even more of in the future is people who bought with these high prices and high payments are going to end up selling in distress.

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[15:29] What I think we're going to see is just more of that pressure build over the next year, especially as more and more of the existing owner population converts to the higher mortgage rates.

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[20:02] I think we could just continue to see this low demand that we've now seen for four years. I think we could see it for another four years. Now, it'll improve a little bit over those four years, but I don't think we're anywhere close to buyers jumping back in.

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[12:39] This is the first time that we're actually really starting to see price points that are 2017, 2018, 2019 price points for sale on the market. And uh this is actually something I did myself two or three months ago as well.

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[38:33] If you see a big downward forecast like in Colorado, 6% in a year at a state level is a huge downward forecast. Washington were minus 6% as well.

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[4:31] we're not going to see sub $50 silver I don't think in our lifetime you know that's maybe sounds like a bold prediction And you know maybe intraday it might break 50. I doubt it. But uh you know we've been basing out here in the mid-50s for the last uh you know couple months now.

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[4:56] the world needs to wake up to the fact that silver's $60 and it's never going backwards.

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[16:13] Don't forget it'll be there again. We're going there.

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[1:05] gold actually sounds like an outstanding investment for the next 6 to 12 months in my view.

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[1:45] producers great place all the the big ones are you know like theos of the world newmonts of the world those are all solid um operators that have multiple assets I don't think you're going to miss much there

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[2:01] silver is in that range a lot of people watching the 50 level I learned the hard way that you don't put a single price and say that's where I buy it because you can miss both ways It can frustrate you if you go to 45. It can frustrate you if it bottoms at 60 and and you missed it. Um, so I would be careful there, but I think we're in a accumulation phase of all these assets.

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[3:15] if you look into even um agricultural commodities today, they're acting like oil was 8 n months ago. Oil was in a consolidation period. Basically charts went sideways for two to three years. If you look at most agricultural commodities as a basket, they've also been behaving that way. I would suspect that we're getting close to a breakout there as well.

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[15:39] Copper that hasn't done that yet. You know copper is kind of sort of like in that where silver was at 40. And I expect copper to go crazy here. So, it's almost like the best analogy I keep using is it's almost like a a beach ball being held up against inside of the water and you know eventually right now we're seeing that some I don't know a little kid just forcing it down but eventually that thing just keeps going

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[8:34] natural gas is another one that very few people talk about and it's right now with the situation in in the Middle East and so forth has been taken away. But if you look at the structural demand coming from data centers and all what are we going to use for source of energy? It's natural gas. There's nothing around it. Like you can't get nuclear quickly. You won't probably get um uh wind, solar. I mean all these things the the only solution in the near term is going to be natural gas.

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[8:15] I would rather be long energy than be short the equity market. I think it's an easier call.

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[2:58] I think we've seen the lows quite honestly we but we need to bounce around you know the market the investors institutional investors need to get used to this kind of new pricing regime that we're in and it may take 6 months it may take 12 months uh you know who knows

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[16:58] I don't know how long it's going going to take to get back to triple digits, but I'm confident it will.

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[31:18] maybe we'll hit 120 gain three times before it breaks through to go to some other level

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[24:15] I think we're two years into a 10-year bull market. I I look at this bull market similar to what I said earlier about the 2002 to 2012 rally. Um and we're in one of those corrections

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[3:37] No, I think it's a breather in the bull market and one of the things that I think is different this time than let's say in the 2011 runup when we had gold moving that was largely driven by speculation... So yes we see these daily volatilities due to the news cycle but long term I think we continue to see that evolution of gold trending higher.

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[15:08] I think again long-term silver is really um looks good when we get around to AI... going forward, we're going to continue to have that industrial use for silver... when I look and say, you know, it's it's it's come from, you know, in the last, you know, couple of decades, it's come from five or $6 to 60. Uh the silver investors longterm have been rewarded.

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[12:47] Yes, I believe so. Well, we've seen you know Equinox and Orla do their moves. So, it's about being product up. As you get these companies which have two or three minds now becoming eight and 10 mines, then we're going to continue to see portfolios move up... I think we're in a space with this gold price... But with the fact that most mining companies are operating with all sustaining costs between that a,000 and 2,000 range at these current gold prices and even what may be projected, there's still good margin in the industry.

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[23:26] we'll have that out in the uh the fourth quarter of this year. that will inform the feasibility study and with that we'll start the permitting process... and our disclosures were targeting uh late 2029 for um production that's only 3 years away which in this business is not is not that far away

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[28:04] my call on that front is that that war will come back after the midterms. It's a finely balanced thing. I can change that view if the evidence changes for the moment. I think there's at least a 50 versus other lower percentage outcomes. Therefore, my base >> Iran after the midterms. >> Iran after the midterms. Yeah, absolutely. I don't believe that's in any way done at all. This isn't sorted.

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[39:04] He dismisses markets pricing 45% chance of normalization before October 1 as too optimistic, noting ships run dark, ship-to-ship transfers hide traffic, and geopolitics will escalate after midterms—Hormuz will never fully normalize as countries build alternatives.

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[19:24] I I think uh, 200 plus was was was rich. Uh, maybe that's been reflected now in the in the stock price pulling back. Uh even buying it though at 150, you know, you're still there's a it's not the ultra bullish end of the right tail of the curve, but you're you're not in the middle. You're not in the fat part of the curve. I'd say you're still, you know, uh in the more optimistic uh grouping. I think I think at 100 bucks, you'd be more in that fat part of the bell curve.

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[8:48] we might stay here for a little bit, but I do believe we're going to get to 6,000 by the end of the year.

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[17:01] Our prediction in the beginning of the year was that silver will get to 120 from where it ended last year. Of course, it got to 121 in January. We're all very happy about that. Um and it has since traded off significantly. We still believe it will get to 120 by the turn of the year.

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[2:52] oil prices went up to 138, you know, in the beginning of the war period, now they're they're down in the mid70s and we had said they'd be in 70 80 bically for the rest of the year and and we're basically in the 70s.

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[6:14] inflation numbers that were just posted in the last one or two prints are going to come down.

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[5:17] I think I I maybe I'm being a contrarian on this, but I don't see rate hikes and I I think you're on the same page with me there... even if that were to happen, which I do not believe

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[11:23] we think it would be healthy if they took a break here, but we still like them as long-term.

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[19:52] I think a lot of the a lot of the move in gold, I think, had become overextended. I think the long-term positive outlook for gold is still there, I think. But the way to manage I think or the way we think about managing our exposure for clients is just making sure that you know we're not too far mispositioned at the wrong time because if you're full weight in gold into the high and you then have to ride it for you know a year or two years like we could be in a multi-year correction now for gold because we had a big run.

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[7:22] Inflation is not going away. But that it's not going to be in that sort of high 3 4% range when we see the next prints.

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[11:05] I think we could even potentially see an easing of rates. I don't think that's going to happen in the next meeting or the next two meetings.

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[14:11] I don't see them going to a QT I don't see them stopping um what what is already in motion which is effectively QE um but not called QE

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[21:56] I can see a situation where four or five years from now they own, you know, basically just a little float of treasuries to maneuver in international markets and the rest is all other currencies, their currency or gold. And I think that's where we're going with some of these banks.

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[2:14] you look at price, you look at value, you look at sentiment, all of those things are just unbelievably lopsided right now, which as a contrarian uh it's difficult to imagine a better setup.

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[3:39] if you looked at gold backing just for the dollar, just for the dollar, we're not talking about the growth in global money supply, but just the growth in the money supply of the dollar for it to for us to have 100% backing, you would be looking at a $21,000 gold price. But you know for 25% back in you're looking at you know 56 5700. So where we are now we are very very under value.

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[5:36] doesn't mean silver won't be higher a year from now, but just a short-term top.

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[1:00] the valuations of the equities are at at very low levels much much closer to the low all-time lows and even to the averages... I would 100% absolutely look for opportunities right now if you're new or underinvested in the is I would absolutely invest now

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[11:30] stocks like Franco and Wheat and and Aigo um selling at on a historical basis uh very very low multiples right now... compared with Franco's historical price to an EV, it is now well under its average. well under its average in the lowest uh lowest 30 percentile on a price of cash flow it's in the lowest 20 percentile so yeah the valuations are very very good I would absolutely start buying now

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[25:10] I think the bull market is is coming now... oil I think is a a good price right now. um at $60 it was just overly overly underpriced.

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[3:41] Obviously, we still had a 5,500 in January. Our prediction at Prince sites was for 6,000 by the end of the year. Before that happened, we we still stand by that.

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[4:56] we expect to be able to selfund our growth. There's no need for external capital, right? And it is a function of the balance sheet strength. We ended the second quarter with $425 million cash on hand, significant cash generation from Siggoia. Mato is expected to become a significant generator of cash flow once we have delivered the expansion in Q4.

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[7:37] that project is on track for first gold pour in Q4 and then a stage progressive ramp up throughout 2027. We expect to be at 4,000 tons per day um at the CIP plant by the first half of next year and then exiting 2027 at 5,000 tons per day.

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[7:55] 2028 would be the first year when the CIP plant runs consistently at 5,000 tons per day which in turn should enable Mamato to produce 500,000 ounces sorry uh 200,000 ounces and then Siggoia and Mamato would be at 500,000 ounces combined

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[9:36] tour Peru is the next one we expect to build the FID expected in Q1 of next year which then obviously follows on the heel of Mamato which we expect to deliver in Q4 of this year

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[13:46] Toro Peru will be construction ready by the end of this year. And from a permitting point of view, we already have the environmental license. The only thing that's required is an amendment of the mining license... we expect to have that project fully permitted by the end of the year and that would then put us in a position to make a construction decision in Q1.

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[16:16] we are fundamentally positive on the outlook for gold given you know the debasement trade like the fiscal uh outlook across the western world is is is not not particularly rosy right and um you also still have an elevated level of geopolitical tensions they don't seem to be abating anytime soon so you know I think all of that is positive for gold as a you know diversifier risk in portfolios as a safe haven asset

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[19:26] mining is still inexpensive trades at a discount to its peers fortunately we have a lot of catalysts ahead of us uh associ with each and every one of our assets that should help us close that gap, right? Uh so we have an exciting 12 months ahead of us.

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[17:02] I think I think we have uh an a problem with underlying inflation. I think underlying inflation is around 3%. I think if anything it's accelerating rather than uh rather than decelerating. Um I think the risk uh of uh an acceleration of underlying inflation is greater than the risk of a deceleration in underlying inflation.

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[26:44] I don't think the Fed is going to hike in 2026. Um, I am I am uh, you know, out of step with uh, with the bond market in that in that view.

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[27:31] My base case is the economy grows above potential in 26. and for the remainder of 2026.

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[5:48] I think there's less pressure on the US Fed to lower interest rates. I think ultimately they will, but I don't think they'll have to in calendar 2026.

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[5:48] I think there's less pressure on the US Fed to lower interest rates. I think ultimately they will, but I don't think they'll have to in calendar two 2026. That means relatively strong US dollar.

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[6:25] I think the economy in the second half of 2026 is going to surprise people for it with its weakness.

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[6:37] I expect as an example the copper quote to be flattened down.

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[17:04] I believe make no mistake that over 10 years the gold price the nominal gold price is going to be markedly higher than it is today.

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[17:22] I think right now that the oil quote and the oil stocks are in freefall and the oil market is a better market than any other natural resource stock. So if I looked at what I'm likely to allocate to the most over the next six months, it's likely to be the oil and gas business.

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[22:06] I believe that both the royalty and the streaming companies have the best 10 years that they've ever had in front of them in terms of allocation.

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[0:00] you're in the fourth turning and it it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. And if it gets worse, then that likely means the dollar goes up and starts destroying and and being more of a problem uh for all these other currencies.

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[34:07] I think the trends are going in the wrong way. Um, and part of the reason is because I think we've had this shiny object called the Middle East for quite some time.

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[34:51] what that means is the market has gone from expecting a Fed rate cut to likely expecting a Fed rate hike in the next who knows in the next couple quarters or something like that.

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[26:29] it's because we have to realize that although we import a lot of stuff into to the United States. We export a lot as well and we're exporting to those countries who are getting decimated by by the dollar going higher and higher and higher. So, at a certain point, the dollar is destroying our trading partners. The dollar is destroying our customers.

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[25:45] And like I said, we're at 162 right now. And that works until you run out of FX reserves. Now you got a problem. Now you got a big problem. You can sell treasuries. You can sell gold. But at a certain point, you might have to take the only asset that's on your balance sheet if you're Japan, and that would be yen. to sell to get those dollars that you have to have and in that case the yen just you go into a death spiral

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[3:42] we think the odds are more likely that the Fed is the next thing the Fed's going to do. We don't know when it's going to be, but we'll likely cut, not hike. And the market right now is expecting a hike.

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[9:17] there's a real probability that the time we finish up this year, we're going to be closer to 1.8 to 2% GDP growth versus 2.3 to 2.6, right?

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[23:17] Yeah that's going to unwind later this year. Is that your thesis? I I I think I think absolutely.

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[30:02] I think oil will start heading higher in about a week's time and I'll explain to you what I mean by that because in a week's time we will be after both July 4th as well as the funeral

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[33:50] Poly market right now is giving only a less than 20% chance that Iran is going to walk away from theou negotiation. I would give before the end of July. I would say the odds are at least double that, if not triple.

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[6:19] you're looking at 5 6 7 8 9% inflation for the next decade.

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[3:46] Let's just say they're on the same page. They're on the same page. And what is the page? The page is it's all you know the whole world revolves around the president now... you've got three spokes or three legs on that stool of needing loose money. Government runaway deficit, um industrial buildout and AI buildout. You you've got to have a printaththon.

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[21:12] it will reach a certain level of which I think is about three and a half thousand, but you know, it's not fate. Now's the time to think about DCAing again... The bottom of this, I believe, will be three and a half thousand, maybe a little lower, but who cares?

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[22:45] over the next 10 years, gold will go on a nice trend because the value of your dollar bills that you put in is going to go that way and the value of your gold in real terms will probably go sideways, but in numerical terms will be going that way.

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[27:01] platinum is ridiculously cheap in my book and padium so why not

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[10:22] So America won't will be relatively strong. Yeah. But the buying power will go down. But the buying power of everything else will go down more.

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[10:41] it looks like um you know, America's going to bomb Iran imminently. Absolutely. Could be this weekend, right? Because you've got all the military stuff going through the roof... we're on a knife edge with Iran. I think oil oil non Middle Eastern oil is kicked up... So that might come up in the next week or two. Could be on the weekend.

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[12:34] my prediction is you'll see stocks down the S&P up to 50% within 3 months and the Nasdaq up to 60% and it'll happen so fast, then you'll panic and sell and then it'll bounce against that to say you're wrong and then it'll crash 80 to 90% in the next 2 years if history has anything to say about this.

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[12:34] my prediction is you'll see stocks down the S&P up to 50% within 3 months and the Nasdaq up to 60% and it'll happen so fast, then you'll panic and sell and then it'll bounce against that to say you're wrong and then it'll crash 80 to 90% in the next 2 years if history has anything to say about this.

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[5:15] we should see the markets go down very strongly into October or late this year. And And that's what I'm looking for now.

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[33:06] we should see a sharp 40-50% crash in stocks by the end of this year. That would be the sign that this bubble's over

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[24:03] Bitcoin is going to crash. I've been predicting it's going to go down to at least 30,000 by the end of this year, maybe lower and then the next stop will probably be 250, then 500.

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[24:14] it's going to be closer to a million dollars 10 to 15 years from now and then it will be big enough to be bigger than gold

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[27:20] If I looked at this chart and had no idea what it was, I'd say this is five perfect waves up and now the next low would be around 800 to 1,100 for gold right back at that 2015-16 bottom on your chart. ... that says gold's going to be down 60-70%.

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[28:21] Gold is not going to be the safe haven. Uh, the Treasury bonds of the US is going to be the safe haven as they were in 2008.

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[28:56] bond yields, I'm telling you, I'm expecting a Treasury bond yield and we've already seen 0.4% so many years ago in the last downturn, 2008-2009. We're going to see Treasury bond yields go down to zero or lower.

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[29:27] when that gets washed out, we're going to see zero inflation for the rest of our lives in the developed world.

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[30:09] Housing's going to go down not as much as the stock market, but 50-60-70% and David, that is what's the worst thing for the economy.

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[30:38] real estate will never be the same when we come out of this downturn, okay? Because real estate lasts forever, unlike stocks and other investments, and and basically is the baby boom dies out, there's going to be not enough investment to keep real estate will actually have negative net demand trends because baby boomers will start selling faster than millennials are buying

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[2:42] we don't we're not at the point where again the stock market is topping right here and now. That's not what I see... I I I think it's going to happen. I mean, it's um there's no indication that the market has stopped at this point.

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[29:13] we can see the Russell 2000 the small cap index has actually not has been outperforming the S&P 500 over the last uh two months I think and it's starting to show that you can see some of these um these uh small cap stocks and whatever starting to perform better and that rotation will go on.

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[29:31] I think there's a good chance we've seen a stock market top in Microsoft for instance and u other stocks as well for in also like that. But you're going to see that they will bounce somewhat into that before they then will continue their bare market decline which I think they're in.

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[30:10] At some point people will realize that inflation is not here. There's no inflation... So there is actually a disinflationary impulse from this... there's no inflation coming. This is completely wrong. Completely wrong.

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[44:56] his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000.

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[43:43] Dollar forecast: DXY to 93–94 short term, then a run toward 120+

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[44:56] his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000.

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[0:00] Yeah, we still think the risk of a 1998 style correction markets is is still pretty high over the next one and two quarters.

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[5:37] we think there is still material risk of the Fed uh tightening monetary policy over the medium-term. Let's call it in the first in the next one to two quarters.

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[10:09] the net result of these five task forces are are are doubbish... if you don't mind I can kind of walk you through what we're thinking in terms of those task forces and why we think the Fed has to be you know more tight now more more hawkish now so that it can ultimately create the scope for that

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[23:24] you're talking about a a 10-year nominal Treasury yield that is a a fair value of about, you know, five and a quarter, somewhere about 5.9 somewhere between five and five and 3/4 to 5.9%... you're talking about a a bond market that could easily reprice to somewhere well north of 5%.

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[4:38] We're currently annualizing at 8% on headline CPI on a three-month annualized basis. That's going to come back down and and we're going to be off, you know, we're, you know, the markets have appropriately priced that that's going to come back down

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[11:25] you know the Federal Reserve will have a serious inflation problem in 2027 if they go from today to tomorrow which is where we think they're going tomorrow which is more easy

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[3:25] it is still pointing to a little bit of a precipitous fall here. This is This is a high momentum move, and based on this chart, it is showing that we could see gold slip 38 3600. It might happen very quick... This chart is pointing to like in the next week or two, we could see gold slip right to 3600.

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[10:23] it is pointing to about $40 per ounce. And And that's why I'm excited cuz I love silver in that way cuz it is extremely volatile... I love it if we can get silver down to these levels. It'll be like back the truck up because it'll be a very short-lived window. It may only tag 40 for minutes or maybe even hours and rebound, right? That's what this chart is kind of pointing to. It's going to be a a couple big red bars, and then it's probably going to bounce right back up into the 60 range.

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[12:22] Based on that, we should see it come to the 618, and if it finds support and bounces, we should see it drop to the 100% measured move, which if we look at that, is about $45,000 for Bitcoin... it actually looks like a pretty straightforward downward trend. It's a bear market. It's bouncing on Fibonacci levels. It's starting to give way today... the odds are it's going lower at this point.

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[14:57] Yeah, I think it does end up positive. It doesn't mean that we can't have a tough couple of months over the summer as it we we're going to have earning season soon. And uh like I said, there's a lot of uh you know, positioning problems within semiconductors as you know, where like everybody's very overweight this space. So, you could see some correction in the the you know, month, a few weeks to a month. But, I think at the over the course of the rest of the year, I think it'll do well because I think this capex spend trend and boom is going to continue into 2027.

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[15:18] So, you could see some correction in the the you know, month, a few weeks to a month.

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[7:34] I don't think the capex to be honest with you is going to stop a slow down anytime soon uh year or next year.

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[15:28] I think this capex spend trend and boom is going to continue into 2027. And when these hyperscalers are announcing earnings, you know, later in July, I think they're all going to really reiterate reiterate their their capex intentions for 2027.

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[35:08] They are forecasting that bond yields have peaked with the inflation number that peak that that came out really hot last month. So, there's they expect that inflation's going to cool off as we go through the rest of year. That's going to bring down bond yields, which is going to be a positive for the underlying economy

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[35:08] They are forecasting that bond yields have peaked with the inflation number that peak that that came out really hot last month. So, there's they expect that inflation's going to cool off as we go through the rest of year.

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[35:40] we're we're very positive on yield sensitive, rate sensitive industries like housing and to some extent financials. And bond yields coming down as inflation sort of cools off through the rest of year, I think it's going to be positive for the broader markets as a whole, not just tech.

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[26:17] I think we're about to see in the next 3 years with Apple, we're going to get really surprised by the pace of innovation by this company, not just in iPhones, but also with AI-related software features that are going to be part of what's going to drive a massive upgrade cycle in iPhones and other devices. And then beyond that, I think Apple is going to be a serious player in home robotics.

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[36:45] the way I see these models progressing over the next years that ultimately they're going to get commoditized because you know, they all the new models as they come out they kind of leapfrog each other.

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[27:15] I think we're headed back to uh an ongoing of the trend that took gold from 1300 to 5,500. There's nothing that made that movement. Listen, maybe it got a little bit ahead of itself on the way up, but there's nothing to me that says this is a long-term retracement here.

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[26:25] I think we're continuing to see uh pressure on uh labor costs in the mining industry, but fundamentally, I think we're still sitting in a place where uh gold mining companies are going to be generating record levels of free cash flow this year. And you know I expect next year and next year I think you know this is a very healthy environment um on for margins in the gold mining business

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[4:44] targeting that being done kind of by the end of the summer, but that's, you know, at the end of the summer, we'd like to be in a position with uh really all of the communities with these long-term uh project agreements in place and the environmental assessment approvals that then really allow us to move on with confidence into finalizing feasibility study, detailed engineering, permitting, and moving towards that construction decision. which we'd be targeting kind of beginning of 2028.

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[12:01] the S&P 500 is up on average about 12% with a 75% hit rate. And the reason for that is the stock market doesn't care about geopolitics. The stock market doesn't care about politics. The stock market cares about earnings and stock prices follow earnings over time.

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[3:16] the hyperscalers and the mag seven guys really struggle this year down into today 174 basis points so red and that's 12% behind the S&P those stocks have probably bombed out sold pulled out, they probably should rally

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[4:37] I think Q2 is going to be going to be pretty good, David. you know Q1 was plus 25% yearonear you know the consensus was plus 12 or 13 so the actual report was 100% better than street you know consensus it was above what we had expected to the estimate for Q2 is north of 20 we're expecting something north of 15 yearon year

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[19:42] our forecast for this year for core PCE is three spot three. Worst just guided us to that exact number two weeks ago.

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[20:16] So right now as we're sitting here two-year yields are about 50 basis points above the effective federal funds rate that suggests the Fed is likely to hike rates right fed fund futures market is pricing a cut sorry a hike in December... Our guess is, this is just our best guess is uh they do nothing here, at least in the near term.

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[24:34] We don't need the Fed to cut rates here, right? Real GDP is probably going to grow two and a half. Economy is strong, consumer resilient, right?

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[29:51] We're up 10% in the first 6 months. Our target range is 7,400 7,800. We're in the middle of that now. That's why I think you don't chase it here and and you buy pullbacks. We'll get some, David, right? It's a midterm year. We'll get some V this summer.

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[23:58] My guess is we have an inline to slightly higher number. And what I'm really interested in, if that's the case, is back to what we just talked about. I want to see what two-year and 10-year yields do coming out of that number tomorrow.

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[6:58] I think it's probably got a couple more years to go. You're right in that, you know, big tech capex spend has driven a lot of of GDP, right? And but but it's been real.

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[29:54] my sense is that we are just going to now from $70 a barrel, maybe we go to 67 or whatever, 65, but I think that from there, we're going to just edge higher. Um, and that's going to continue to be sort of the uh the trend for the next several years.

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[33:50] I I'm still very bullish energy and I think this is a tremendous buying opportunity right here. Um, so I'm probably going to add to my exposure.

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[20:49] we're going to go from an environment where companies were buying back a trillion plus dollars a year in shares um to now being net issuers and uh net borrowers. So there's a tremendous demand for you know there'll be first a supply of equities rather than you know an expanding supply of equities rather than a shrinking supply of equities which has had the double whammy effect of both boosting um the prices but also the earnings per share metric

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[1:20] I remain very very bullish on the precious metals and that's sort of uh where I've been bullish since uh 2018... I'm quite constructive on gold for the next 5 to 10 years and by default silver

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[13:36] The mainstream public are much more likely to buy mining shares and junior mining shares than the central bank of China will. So that'll be the next wave also in terms of the equity markets catching up to the gold prices.

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[16:00] yes I mean this this pullback has created lots of opportunity um it's created opportunity in the junior mining space where I allocate most of my capital but also for investors want to be a little uh less risky let's say that producing gold producers have also had significant pullbacks many of them are pulled back 30 40% off their highs hit in January February of 2026... yes, there's a big opportunity in the in the mid-tier space as well.

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[23:58] yes, you can make 100 200% on the producers or you can buy a company trading at $50 an ounce in the ground today, which I'm doing junior space. have that company double their resource over the next two years of drilling and eventually try to sell for two three $400 an ounce to acquirer which you know can afford to pay that at some point in the future. That's how you make 10 20 30 even 50 times your money which is what I'm looking for in the junior space.

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[21:34] home building activity is going to remain structurally squeezed... it's going to be an area that I think remains uh difficult uh regardless of what happens with energy costs just because of the structural underinvestment that's been going on over the last 20 years and what's likely to persist.

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[13:15] I think 7800 is a very reasonable target I think 7853 off the top of my head uh uh stands out

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[0:21] I am becoming more cautious as to this top being more than just a pullback and a buying opportunity.

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[3:13] we're broadly following the 1920s. So, we're in a big bull market. We're definitely in a big bull market that culminates potentially in 2029

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[33:35] the cycles are fairly bearish for the moment... I think that we're probably going to be soft into round about September this year, September 2026.

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[35:12] it's very bearish the the smart money uh you know so the smart money in Bitcoin is the money that drives the futures and the ETFs and so on. Uh uh it's looking very bearish and I think we're still down for uh several more weeks into autumn into on Bitcoin.

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[2:51] we could have a more prolonged pullback because of what we did but in the longer run we will base out and reassert we expect continuation rather than this being a top. Same goes for silver and platinum.

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[2:51] we could have a more prolonged pullback because of what we did but in the longer run we will base out and reassert we expect continuation rather than this being a top. Same goes for silver and platinum.

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[2:51] we could have a more prolonged pullback because of what we did but in the longer run we will base out and reassert we expect continuation rather than this being a top. Same goes for silver and platinum.

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[7:50] I think between now and October, the sell in May, I think when we last time saw you, we t we said sell in May, go away... overall this is not uh a great time to be leverage long too much.

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[13:23] my overall opinion is that people should sit on their hands now and get ready to get a bit of a discount window that might be offered in the next month. It could be two months, could be three.

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[27:36] Not buying that at all. I can see the dollar softening.

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[28:20] this is why we are short oil because that has to come down if they to have any chance of not uh materializing some of those hikes that half the committee actually are forecasting. Um, and that's why I think we got this poor moves, you know, quick quick sort sorts and we're shorting the oil price. We've uh been short since the '9s and we've got into I think uh the low7s uh and we might have dipped into the 60s now.

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[36:14] I'm very weak on I'm very bearish on the Korean one and I expect the dollar to have a super spike against the Korean one.

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[39:40] you are seeing foreign professional institutional money leaving and you're seeing the taxi drivers at 55 years old getting properly geared up record margin levels getting long. So I think you know sentiment wise how you should be feeling about the shoe shine boy getting in.

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[17:11] The system that the China uh has put in place is a very slow but deadly erosion of dollar dominance and anyone who doesn't see that is not watching the game turn. It's slow motion uh but it's coming each time it's coming you know uh and it's bleeding away on you.

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[25:55] you've got yourself a head and shoulder with a downside break and a little broadening structure. And you've fallen out of that rising wedge again with a downside target. So I'm not seeing dollar strength being omniresent against all nations

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[6:39] I think oil will probably go back to the levels it was before. You know, people say, "Oh, oh, blah, blah." But it will. And so, I think then then you may want to buy more of it there, right?

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[9:45] I think that from a from a valuation perspective, Meta is is not expensive. I think that they've got great core brands, which they continue to be able to grow, and I think that you can see the fact that AI is working within those brands to generate more and more revenue for them on the advertising side. So, I I I like it because of all those things, but and I think like you know, you you're getting a relatively cheap stock.

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[12:47] I think that they will be one of the top top players. They've got a great cloud business that continues to grow. I mean, the cloud is the Azure's growing incredibly fast, 37% in the last quarter. Right? So, so I think that they are there's this kind of weird sense that they're not going to be anywhere and that that because they have a software business that's going to disappear.

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[17:41] It's an eye glass company that's going to grow at 3 to 5% a year. They're they are they dominate the business on especially on lenses.

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[4:32] oil prices have come down which should stabilize inflation more. Uh so you should probably see yields come down.

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[18:53] The dividend is is where it is. It's not maybe not going to go up, but it's not going to go down anymore. So, I think that's what people used to buy the stock for. So, they have more confidence in that. It's a five and a half% yield now, which is not terrible.

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[19:10] I think Telus is slightly more interesting simply because they're getting a new CEO coming in, I think, in on July the 1st. I think he they he may even cut the dividend and do all those sort of things because, you know, but I think that that would be it's a little bit more of an interesting story from that perspective.

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[22:25] Yeah, I think you could add here to the stock. I think you'd be fine adding to the stock. I think it'll do well over the next, you know, couple of years.

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[27:59] I think it it's worth buying here. Um, CE makes flight simulators. So for people, you know, civil and, you know, these plane companies... I think the defense side there's a real, like I said earlier on, like there's a real push around the world on the defense side and Canada's made a big effort to kind of increase defense

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[32:25] Oh, I wouldn't buy Campbell. I mean, I think like look at the numbers, right? They've just been there the numbers over the last uh little while have been horrific, right? And their snack business has been terrible.

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[35:50] I'm not sure why Nike is having all this trouble, right? So, they've got a great brand, a brand that's global in nature. you know, they've they've been able to manage their cost structure over a period of time. I just seems to me that there's something along the way that's been gone wrong for them and I I'm not sure what it is to how to explain it. Like it just seems like to me that every every time they do something, it's it's not the right thing.

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[37:59] I'm a big fan of platinum and palladium because I think they're really badly priced. I think they're very cheap and I think they're very um mispriced... if I pick up gold, I think I will be slapping myself saying, why why wasn't I buying platinum and palladium?

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[37:59] I'm a big fan of platinum and palladium because I think they're really badly priced. I think they're very cheap and I think they're very um mispriced... if I pick up gold, I think I will be slapping myself saying, why why wasn't I buying platinum and palladium?

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[2:13] I believe was on the cards for next year and is now at least postponed and maybe delayed forever.

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[9:06] I don't think a four or a five handle for the year, which is what I was saying previously, but I don't think a four or a five handle for the year is is likely at this point. I I I think probably you're looking at somewhere in the twos. Might you get a three handle? It's possible, but probably a two.

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[23:19] the the component of the producer price index, the PPI, the specific component that includes things like computer chips, memory, uh that has been going parabolic again for several months now. And so anyone who who has familiarity with the supply chains in the technology sector knew that these price hikes for things like laptops was coming and has arrived and is probably going to continue.

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[37:43] Again, we're going to see negative prints on headline CPI. It's I mean, it's just it's it's going to happen.

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[38:18] we're seeing home price declines expand beyond just the sunb belt.

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[38:09] this great rental reinflation that we were going to see in 2026 ain't happening. In fact, we're seeing the opposite of that.

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[5:52] I my my base line case is probably around $85$90 a barrel. That wouldn't surprise me whatsoever.

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[25:42] I I I would I would say that the chances of them lowering that, meaning gooseing in in their eyes is pretty low. Well, as you saw in the chart, I think it's non-existent.

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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.

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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.

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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.

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[4:22] I feel like we're carving a bottom here in Bitcoin. A lot of the good uh analysts that I follow in the the economic or the models that I follow, there's one in particular that's very useful called the power law model, um suggests that, you know, we're close to the bottom, if not at the bottom. So, you know, whether we end here at 59 or 58, or we whip down to 54, I I don't think we're going to see a number that starts with 40.

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[31:31] I'm here to say I don't believe that's going to happen. In fact, I think it's probably the same equivalent chance that between now and the year end, they're going to actually cut rates.

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[3:48] our expectation is that the prices will start rising again in the final four months of this year into 2027 because the macroeconomic and political environment that drives investment demand hasn't gotten better. And our expectation is that while there is there has been some temporary improvement economically and politically, we think that by September things get worse again.

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[3:27] we're looking at lower prices for platinum and platium. We're more uh negative about the price prospects for platinum platium, although we do think that the prices at some point in the next few years could rise sharply.

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[34:48] we think that the price, you know, the price has broken below 4,100 a couple times over the last few weeks. It's down below it today. We think that there's a lot of technical selling pressure with a target around 3,800 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the price spike down to that level.

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[34:29] Gold and silver. Gold and silver I am most bullish on. Again, you know, we think that the prices consolidate over the next few two months uh but then rise in the the final part of this year.

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[3:22] right now, the chart of gold is looking like it wants to go to to about $3,600. That is going to be a sweet spot in terms of if it drops down to this level, to me, it's fair value or it's undervalued.

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[11:28] this is a long way down from where we are. This is $40 silver. But what it does, Jeremy, is it actually goes right back... All of those people who chase returns are chasing performance and trading on emotions. The market loves to try to put them under pressure and try and get them back out before they go.

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[10:54] The chart for the dollar is actually pointing to a rally up to about 109. That's a 9% move in in it, which is going to hurt precious metals.

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[26:15] look at the mega caps they the magnificent 7 they have been going down. Utilities have been going up. Big smart money is they they can't just liquidate because they have to stay actively investing... So they move to slower sectors... we are definitely seeing money looking for safety, smart money, and it's coming out of the Magnificent Seven, which to me is an early warning sign.

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[9:40] Yeah, know I could certainly see that happening certainly with oil prices having come down um in the last month or two already. That's going to be the big swing factor in the headline number which is what these numbers are. Um and and so I think there were some other factors that are probably keeping the CPI up a little bit lately. So I think yeah, we could see a little bit of slowing from the 4.2% rate, which is, you know, pretty high for as these things go um in the next month or two.

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[11:34] my guess is that uh uh we probably won't see $100 barrel on oil again soon. Uh but it may not go back to the 5060 where it was prior to the war.

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[20:57] I think maybe you get at one at most two quarter point rate hikes in the next 6 to 12 months from the Fed. And if if that's really all you're looking at, um, that's just not that big a deal.

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[25:02] my guess is probably not at this point simply because to some degree things like gold are sensitive to rates uh and certainly real rates in particular if those are going to go stay higher, you know, where they are go up, um then gold typically would not benefit from that. you would only see gold uh maybe getting another tailwind if rates were going to go down if the economy really slows down substantially.

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[25:56] I don't think it's going to um have a big boost given that basically all the tech AI stuff has kind of taken the you know the attention and the kind of the speculative money has gone away from those alternative u you know digital assets uh that they used to get you know a few years ago um that now people are more interested in in some of these uh you know tech AI related stuff rather than than Bitcoin and things

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[27:13] Uh yeah, I'd be surprised if there was a recession this year or in the next 12 months.

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[28:14] I think there could be a gradual you know weakening but nothing that would be to the level of a recession in the next 6 to 12 months.

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[23:09] Um, you know, my guess is that, you know, the tech space is still going to be the driver of what happens in the market. Uh, the sort of tech AI, you know, and kind of the adjacent areas and then kind of everything else.

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[24:14] I think the kind of the maybe call it the easy money part of the cycle is passed. Um and you're going to get into the kind of the choppier more volatile part of the uh kind of market cycle coming up in the next 6 to 12 months.

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[17:00] I think inflation is going to stay relatively high and be sort of somewhere close to what wage growth will be. I think right now real uh you know inflation adjusted disposable personal income growth is about zero year-over-year. So there's basically been almost no increase in in real disposable income.

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[33:41] even housing inflation rental you know prices in aggregate have been slowing down quite a bit for a couple years now um and I think that's probably going to continue as well um just from you know less demand from from you know lower immigration and the fact there has been at least some building going on

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[28:10] bonds for an asset class have been dead for 5 years. And I think without a a a meaningful change in fiscal policy and a meaningful change in monetary policies uh in in the western world uh I think bonds stay dead.

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[16:28] I've argued with you in the past and um and I've written a lot of pieces in the past couple of years highlighting that there's a lot you know very exciting changes occurring all across Latin America political change corporate governance changes uh growth of local pension funds all of which argue for a rerating of local assets that are deeply deeply undervalued.

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[27:02] I think the highest odds are, you know, you're going to be in an inflationary boom.

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[35:51] I think I think it's a story for the next 12 months. Yep. I think it's a story for the next 12 months because the the yen is now so cheap and the JGB yields are uh are starting to move higher. More importantly, the BOJ is starting to raise rates uh and starting to sound a little more inflation hawkish.

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[24:06] if you're playing the infrastructure development trade, that's got another year, 18 months to it, maybe two years, but that's going to end. And that whole infrastructure side of the trade is going to go away, and you're going to have to move to the revenue generation side of of the trade.

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[16:55] S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow north of 20% and and you know, that's all fine, but you know, when you take a look at the five hyperscalers, they're talking about spending, I'm looking at my notes real quick, 760 billion this year. They're going to only expense about 211 billion of that. So, the depreciation bill that nobody's paying attention to is coming due over the next couple of years, and that's going to impact earnings growth as well.

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[8:56] Trump may even lower interest rates before the midterm election, which of course will bring down the dollar and bring gold prices up. He's going to do everything he can to pump this up.

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[12:14] We believe there's going to be a bust. They're doing everything artificially to prop this market up.

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[5:48] I believe this is there's no end in sight. There's going to be a false flag event, something that reignites this war.

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[32:26] Bitcoin 30 to 40,000 and it will settle around there. It might go under 30, but I don't think it will.

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[32:32] Gold 3 and 1/2 thousand. It will go in and it will find its level, I believe, around there. It might go a little bit lower. It might shake about a lot. But, when all is said and done, that's where it will be and that I'll be DCA'ing in then.

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[32:55] this particular um storm, which is one of of um month end, quarter end, half year end, year end, all at the same time, which is the end of June, that should rectify itself in July and then we should be off to the races again.

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[25:53] I think there's a great shot that we see 4500 on this next up leg, if not higher. Okay? But I will start to look at 4500 as a place to potentially lighten up my position

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[21:55] I don't think I think oil is going to the mid-50s. I have no interest in buying it. Uh I'm still short. I'm certainly I have a level in which I will cover uh and re and re-short again.

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[26:55] Uh, I think it's got a great chance to go down to 7200. Uh, I think the highs are in. I think the next resistance would be about it would be at 7520 would be where I would be reselling and adding on to my position.

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[18:00] I think we get at least one, maybe two before the year's over. Uh, I think that they're warranted. I think that they're due.

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[5:29] interest rates really if you would just let them trade freely David and let the free market determine what they are the 10ear notes are now just under 5% they were almost at 5% I think they're going to end up near near 6% by the end of the year

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[30:19] I would also look at, you know, the dollar, the Dixie doesn't trade enough for me to want to get involved with it. But if I were going to trade the Dixie, I would sell it here.

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[21:25] we've got midterms coming up, which is termally ter normally between now and midterms, the markets are lower anyways. You throw a rate a rate hike in there, you could see some pretty serious selling.

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[6:05] I'd be long oil at this point. Uh but as volatile as it is, if you want to be long oil, the way to do it is through, I think, oil stocks or by uh doing spreads with um commodity options. And I'm putting that theory into practice myself. I'm long a lot of oil stocks, and uh I actually have bull spreads on for oil at this point. I think they're going to work out well.

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[17:01] I think um what's really cheap is the shares of the companies that produce it. So, I think that's the best way to play it because Look, let's go back to the last peak of the oil or energy boom, which was in 1980. And in 1980 about 20% of the S&P was oil and gas and energy generally, 20%. Today, as we speak, it's 4%. So, uh people don't I mean, the market is just not interested in oil and gas stocks. And as a kind of uh the Catholics would say an outward sign of inward grace is the dividends that they're yielding. I mean, some oil and gas stocks are yielding 10% or more in current dividends, and they're safe dividends. And if uh if I'm right about oil and gas themselves trending higher over the short term, forget about the long-term of history, those dividends are going to go up.

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[23:20] I guess of all these things, and not just because it's used to create urea, uh which is nice. Um I guess I'm most favorably towards natural gas at these current prices, around $3.

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[22:05] I think the play is really to buy the commodities themselves at this point. And particularly corn. I think corn is the cheapest of the commodities relative to its cost of production.

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[26:04] Yeah. I think so, because sulfur is uh largely a byproduct of refining fossil fuels. So, um it would seem that sulfur prices, which have gone up a lot, cuz a lot of it comes from the Middle East, uh are going to descend and the costs involved in creating fertilizers will go down. So, yeah, that's a reasonable play, and I'd be friendly towards these uh fertilizer companies, absolutely. Both of the ones you mentioned.

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[30:49] I'd say that the bull market in gold is still in motion. And this is just another fluctuation along the way. Listen, at the very beginning of the bull market uh in 1976, gold had reached $200 an ounce, up from $35. And then it collapsed down to a I remember well cuz cuz I took it This was the first I mean, it it really treated me well cuz I I took advantage of that collapse. It went down to $103.50. And then subsequently it rose to $800.

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[32:14] so, I've concentrated on the mining stocks, which actually are very underpriced now relative to everything else. Uh gold is not a not a good speculation at this point.

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[37:58] But, but my answer to the question is, they're going higher because from the early 1980s, they were in a long-term bear market. They went from, say, 15% to negative numbers, which, frankly, I thought was metaphysically impossible to have negative interest rates, but it happened because that's that's all controlled and distorted in the economy we're living in today. Well, since 2022, they've been going up. I think they're going to go up much higher because the Federal Reserve is forced at this time to buy most or a lot of, anyway, the US government's debt.

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[7:47] for years uh I've been predicting something I call the greater depression. I think we've already entered upon the greater depression, which I define as a period of time in which most people's standard of living drops significantly.

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[48:04] Uh copper is something that people have been watching. So, I'll say it's $6 right now. Um And And of course, if the world is electrified, which it's going to be, uh uh copper is the way to do it.

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[7:27] I think that Bitcoin is uh not done going down, I'm afraid. And typically these corrections of Bitcoin are in the 75 to 80% range. So if you just take 125 and you go down uh you know 3/4 of that, what does that put you? Somewhere around uh 30 35. So I absolutely expect Bitcoin to be below 50.

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[22:31] I don't think gold is, you know, going to make new highs and I think it will probably be sideways to down over the next year or so.

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[21:10] I think the US dollar is going higher. Uh so especially if you are um comparing gold to the US dollar, right? There are other economies that look at gold in terms of their currencies, but in terms of the US dollar, I think this bet is flatout wrong. And I would be uh intrigued by the opportunity to take the other side of that.

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[22:22] as we head into these more challenging times that gold is going to be preferred, continue to be preferred over Bitcoin.

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[23:48] I think that you know we'll probably be sideways to down for a little bit here but I think by the end of the year in 2027 you know we'll see new highs in equities.

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[0:00] we're going to likely see a major correction until at least the second half of 2027, if not 2028.

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[4:01] I think that we're going to continue to see inflation be sticky, if not a problem, as real world assets get repriced

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[0:43] well-known investor in the gold space, Pierre Lassonde, has said, "Just on the M2 money supply alone, we're talking about $17,000 plus dollars per ounce." And that's his prediction over the next 5 years.

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[15:23] Are we going to get back to anything close to that? I mean, I I apparently before this Singaporean tanker, uh, was hit, you had 70 crossings. So, I mean, could we get to 100, 110? Probably. I'd be surprised if we get all the way back up to 130

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[18:30] I do think you will see a meaningful acceleration of adoption of clean energy technologies. Solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles. Um you we've already seen spiking exports of those goods from China to the rest of the world in the last few months. I think that that's only going to continue.

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[18:45] I think a lot of countries who have been wary of taking Chinese EVs into their country are going to relax that. I know in Canada where you are, you know, Mark Carney had already agreed to allow in about 40,000 or so Chinese EVs in January. I think that's going to be just the tip of the iceberg.

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[17:59] One, they're going to see more infrastructure in the Gulf to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously, the Emirates are building more pipeline capacity to Fujairah. I'm sure you'll see more Saudi capacity. I think you'll see many more pipelines built over the coming years.

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[3:23] Whether or not this is going to, you know, uh break break down the the the ceasefire and the MOU, I don't think so. I think that what caused this deal in the first place, David, is that Iran had successfully weaponized the Strait of Hormuz against the United States, had coerced the United States to back down. And so, I don't think that there's really any political will in Washington right now to to re-re-initiate hostilities with Iran.

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[13:57] we could see it pull back to roughly about 6,000 on the S&P 500 down to about 5,500. And so, that is from, you know, the current price today. That is about 18 to a 24% uh pullback in the equities market.

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[14:39] If we take a look at this one from a a zoomed in perspective, this current leg, it is showing that we could see about to 7100 down to about 7,000. So, if the S&P 500 pulls back here, we got about a 3 and a half to about 6% drop. And that'll be a healthy correction.

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[11:22] The next downside target for Bitcoin is $44. Sorry, $44,000. That will break this low from back in 2024. It will be a big cleanse. It's about another 17, I think, percent haircut

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[24:09] I I would say Bitcoin has the most downside potential. If we if we take a look at the the Bitcoin monthly chart, this chart is pointing to a very significant drop... The downside move, this sell-off, and this bounce is pointing to 16,000, which comes back down to a previous low in 2022. So, I think that has the most percentage- wise from where we are right now. I mean, we're looking at another 72% haircut from where it was.

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[33:05] It is still showing that we're going to see a very precipitous drop in gold, silver, and miners. uh they're they're going to continue to unwind, I think... is saying we could see GDX, for example, come all the way down to 69. It could come all the way down to about uh 58. So, from where it's trading right now, we could see another 20% haircut fairly easily.

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[34:34] I feel like the dollar is putting in, you know, one of these types of bases. It's had an unwinding event. Now we we've put in one of these bases and each time we see a big leg higher. And so I think we are on the verge of seeing the US dollar move up... You can see these moves previously when we came out of this type of pattern. 20% move, 20% move, and 20% move.

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[41:30] they might not have a good summer, but 5 years from now they won't remember this summer.

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[42:00] I think we're coming into a truly spectacular period of time. The difficulty, and you know this, Trey... Uh I I think we're coming into a period like the early part of the decade 2000 to 2010.

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[3:00] when we think about this for the next five or 10 years if you're buying at this price it's not something that's going to do well over the long run. this is not the time to be expanding your um risk assets.

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[6:23] And I think that's what we're going to experience in the coming uh months and quarters.

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[11:02] I I suspect that we'll be shocked at how quickly this cycle rolls over and how much this ends up being a little bit of a mirage in terms of the demand for these things.

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[32:57] what I am petrified about is that we a lot of these stocks have not really reflected that they've assumed that the demand is based upon this three months that was just kind of a stupid aberration like I call it the token mirage. And that there's going to be a huge wakeup call when all of a sudden we realize that we mistook how much demand there was for this.

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[28:28] Gold. Bullish two years.

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[28:37] Silver. Bullish two years.

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[28:40] Copper. Bullish two years.

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[28:44] Oil. Bullish two years.

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[14:41] interestingly enough on the silver side with it breaking down to 58 today the small speculators always lose it's too bad that's the way it happens in the market but the small speculators have been long silver long silver long overall during this drop and I think this week they're starting to puke it out. So, we're going to start to see the small speculators just sell their positions and get out and that might be a sustainable bottom.

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[12:26] I think this tailwind goes into next year for sure. And the reason I say that is Almonty is way behind in terms of getting their you know metal out of the ground.

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[17:40] we want to break back into that channel for silver of of 70 to the 85, right?

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[17:44] We want to see gold break back into that 4,500 plus, you know, price area and and retest 5,000, hopefully within 6 months or so, right?

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[18:00] will we get back there this year? Not the way I see things right now. I think we'll see that probably in Q1 of next year.

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[34:41] And if they win this, which they think they will, they basically get intros to these companies, which again, trading at 16 and 1/2 cents US, like it's a flyer at this price, right? But when you get one big contract, it's not a flyer anymore. Like they're basically going to get their technology vetted by someone, and I think that's going to happen this year or next year.

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[4:30] I stand by the case that um gold and silver will bounce back further for all the same fundamental reason.

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[4:30] I stand by the case that um gold and silver will bounce back further for all the same fundamental reason. I mean I could go to the the whole debt situation, the currency debasement that goes on.

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[5:12] I think we'll be right back to that dollar weakness gold strength silver strength the fundamentals will support the silver story

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[31:50] I think my first move when I decide that I want to get introduce more funds into the precious metal markets, it will be uh some derivation of uh silver stocks. Okay. I think silver stocks will by by far the best... I I think they'll run real fast here.

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[0:55] global liquidity is about to get even tighter still, and it's about to be a wrecking ball for markets to come.

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[14:11] I think perceptions of a much stronger dollar are likely uh a very likely. Uh the Walsh has indicated he wants the markets to tighten, and that really means a stronger dollar and rising yields or a steepening curve, for sure.

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[16:06] We think normal GDP growth is likely set for a clip of between 6-7% going forward. Maybe a tad higher than that, but you know, the economy is on a roll at the moment and inflation clearly is a nagging problem. But that is going to mean that you're looking at something like a target of about 6% on the long on the long bond or the 10-year on the 10-year bond.

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[27:04] my view through this year, I mean rightly or wrongly, uh we're halfway through is that what you'd see from Wall Street in 2026 would broadly speaking be a range-bound market. There'd be volatility, uh but it would really go sideways because the authorities wouldn't be tightening that aggressively. Uh and I think that's still the case. But, I think as we roll the clock on, uh the odds are that liquidity conditions are going to tighten more and more and more. Uh and that that projection uh becomes, you know, maybe challenged by year end or into '27.

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[21:43] Bitcoin is a is a very good barometer of US liquidity conditions. It tends to react very closely to the fact global liquidity, predominantly Fed liquidity. So, if Fed liquidity is slowing down, you'd expect uh Bitcoin to suffer, and it it it is suffering.

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[30:31] Oil is weak near term, sure. I'll come quietly. That was not a great surprise, but it's the medium term that matters. And if you put this into context... I would not discount higher oil prices in the medium term.

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[31:30] I would not discount higher commodity prices in the medium term cuz I think that's the background we're looking at. We're looking at economic strength. And this sort of deglobalization uh process, which is underway... there's got to be a lot more uh investment spending worldwide.

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[19:00] there's an underlying inflation problem... the dotted line is the correct number. It may be coming down, but it's not coming down fast and so underlying inflation pressures are clearly there and therefore the Federal Reserve has got to act.

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[29:28] We think probably Well, I mean, maybe not unreasonably that gold is going to be elevated in the medium term because of all this debasement, either current or future. And therefore, let's take as a minimum $4,000 an ounce of gold.

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[32:59] I think there's probably underlying momentum that may keep uh the US out of recession uh because the underlying trend in the economy be so good.

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[0:23] I don't have a very bullish outlook for equities and clearly as well for bonds.

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[0:23] I don't have a very bullish outlook for equities and clearly as well for bonds.

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[5:17] Countries like Singapore, even China, to me, I would sooner own their equities than our equities now.

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[9:57] there's a very strong chance that the house will revert back to democratic control.

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[10:29] I don't think he makes it through his last 2 years. I think he'll do something what the Biden group did at the end. I think he'll pardon whoever he thinks people may go after after he's gone. And then it part of his leaving is Vance pardons him.

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[27:13] I think they're going to try to work it that hey, 3% isn't so bad. Because it'll be four or five at that point in time.

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[26:37] he's probably going to word out this 2% target. That it's either going to become a number that yet determined or something higher than 2%, and that way it will be more understandable to accept a higher rate of inflation than for 6 years keep missing a number that you don't get close to achieving.

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[15:25] Biden put it out as a trial, and I think within one or two administrations, they're going to bring it back again.

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[3:30] In the very near term, I'm pessimistic as to the gold price.

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[1:19] I think in the very near term that US policy makers are prepared to allow the market to set the tone of US interest rates and that suggests to me that interest rates will go higher in the US.

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[3:08] my suspicion is towards the end of this year, you will see them capitulate uh and both force interest rates down to the extent that they can and uh monetize uh the debt and deficits including the debt uh associated with the recent Iran conflict through quantitative easing.

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[12:53] In the decade of the 70s, according to the office of management and budget, the US dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years, which is what I believe happens over the next 10 years.

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[21:50] I think minimally there will be $50 billion in new transactions in the next 10 years. Minimally. Uh, and by the way... the nominal number will be much higher 70 or 80 billion.

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[38:42] I think that changes in two or three years. Uh I think you have a market right now where the owners of the companies, the shareholders, particularly institutional shareholders are insisting on a very rigid fiscal discipline. uh I think that changes because I think the concern over the next two years will be the ability of companies to maintain or or increase their production

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[41:45] I think over the next five years the prices that are going to be paid for those discoveries uh are going to be surprisingly stiff.

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[36:01] I think uh a characteristic of the upcoming bull market in precious metals uh will be eventually a leadership transition from gold to silver.

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[4:27] I think that'll help with the tenure. I think the 10year's peaked.

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[8:02] I do think I do think we're going to have a little bit of a pullback here, at least for July. I think July is going to be a little tough.

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[28:20] I think it's making lower lows. So, I think you could see this continue to go down. Um I don't know where that number is going to be yet. I mean, I could see 3,800 potentially holding like 3811 is our next fib number.

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[18:01] I think it'll be a while before the miners kind of get that bounce. Like, I think we're going to need gold stabilized first. Same thing with silver. I think you're going to need some stability there before you see the miners start to rebound.

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[4:19] it probably goes to 10k by 2030 or earlier but we just got to use this as a buying opportunity and accept

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[3:21] I still hold out and I still think it has likely further downside to go... your $3,500 call. you're obvious I'm assuming you're sticking to it... Now that we're below 4,000, we're now within $500 of my final target.

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[12:06] I've been saying 54 and then $50 is likely where it's headed. I still think 54 at minimum. I will start nibbling at 54, but I still think there's a highly likely chance that we're headed to that even number of 50 and even piercing 50.

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[18:34] if this breaks and confirms below this 60,000 level, we're headed to 50. That's the next big stop on this this track. So, um you know, I still, and I said this to you before, is even even though we're going to get bounces along the way, I still think Bitcoin is going down to at least 50 or 49. Maybe worst case is like 35.

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[8:25] I don't think so. Um, I do think that we're already seeing a crack in the AI narrative... the Fed is unlikely to hike rates as we will start to see a slowdown later this year.

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[4:16] I I'd be a dip buyer here on that somewhere.

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[4:32] I'd stay away from IGV. That's not a smart index that's going to include everything. I'd be careful on software.

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[4:49] I think the cyber security names, we're going to need more of them, not less.

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[8:03] until memory ceases to be a bottleneck, you know, that's an area I'm going to want to be in... I do think memory is an area you want to be in.

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[11:00] So, our AI thesis going into 2027 is it's still going strong. you know, I don't I don't see this as a March 2000 type of event. I think there are a lot of differences here where, you know, so I I think the dip we've seen over the past couple of days, you ought to be a buyer of it.

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[26:19] Now it's gotten its butt kicked ever since SpaceX has come out. Now's the time I'd be buying it.

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[23:14] we just hedged it by buying ARC puts.

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[24:17] I've got a big put in arc. I've got a big put in SMH semiconductors and then we're longing a bunch of the bottleneck names.

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[35:10] My view is that the interest cycle peaked out in '81. Interest rates dropped until August 2020. And since August 2020, we are in a upward cycle for inflation and interest rates... the trend is upwards. That is my view.

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[36:52] For next 6 months, I think it's going to go down.

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[33:03] personally, I think that gold is in a correction phase as well as silver and that it may last for a while... we could have a correction in gold that lasts until, say, September, October.

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[33:03] personally, I think that gold is in a correction phase as well as silver and that it may last for a while.

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[47:03] my view would be that there is a big disappointment coming. That both home prices will go down and stocks price will go down.

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[47:03] my view would be that there is a big disappointment coming. That both home prices will go down and stocks price will go down. Maybe not so much in nominal terms, but against gold, the market is way down since 2000.

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[9:38] a recipe for investors to make money is to sell short any stock that has to do with a Trump family. That is a recipe, a guaranteed recipe to make money. Because all they all go down. They all go down.

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[29:04] I own it because I know in the end it's going to be much higher based upon a system that there is no way that the dollar can come back to a semblance of strength when we're 200 trillion in debt, when interest rates have nowhere to go but higher.

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[28:03] the price could still go even lower from here, but if I hear you correctly, you're saying, 'I don't think this game's up at all. I think this is a breather' ... Well, it's just I mean cost averaging for sure.

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[29:09] there is no way that the dollar can come back to a semblance of strength when we're 200 trillion in debt, when interest rates have nowhere to go but higher.

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[34:31] I fully expect Bitcoin to be at par with gold, you know, in 15, 20 years, something like that in central bank reserves. And I think it'll be uh more widely held by um individual investors over that time.

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[18:57] it's on the way, I would say. So, if you if you look at that chart and you just sort of get the halfway point of the war, we're kind of at where we were at the beginning of the war.

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[21:43] there is a bulge of inflation that's coming even if things normalize and peace is achieved

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[29:13] fertilizer prices are starting to come back in of course with the rest of the energy complex after the the war you know and theou was signed

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[25:16] I would say that the LG market is actually pretty well behaved. Um, and not signaling a significant crisis. Prices are almost back to pre-war levels without seeing the chart.

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[28:07] No. Um if anything um you know they the tech se the tech sector is going to be the the highest bidder for energy anyway driving up prices for electricity and natural gas as we're already seeing around the world. Um the the the biggest input into tech center that matters is US natural gas and um there's been no blip in US natural gas production. Um and if anything... we we think this is mostly a non-event for big tech.

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[2:31] I think that you know the the the whole uh micro or strategy and uh the preferred I think that whole house of cards is in the process of collapsing you know in real time right right in front of us

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[5:03] I don't believe that Worsh is going to make that choice. I think when it comes down to it and his back is to the wall and he's asked to choose between the lesser of those two evils, he's going to do what everybody else has done and he's going to choose inflation.

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[6:03] bonds are getting ready for another breakdown, meaning another move up in rates, I think that's coming. And so maybe we get the 10ear to break away from 4 and a.5% and then move up towards 5%

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[6:59] the 30-year to move up you know more 5 6%ish up there.

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[9:20] By next year, it's going to be two trillion. And again, it's not going to stop at two trillion. It's going to keep on going up and up

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[42:09] I think gold uh is going to be repriced much higher. I think commodity prices, emerging markets are going to be

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[31:06] if you don't have any gold I you should definitely be buying it you know and if you don't have enough gold you should be buying more. But, you know, I think the pullback that we've had that started around the time that the war started with Iran... it was a buy the rumor, sell the fact

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[33:46] Silver is at $65. They're like, 'Oh, look. It's it was $120 and it it crashed to $65. You see, it's a bad investment.' $65. If somebody told you two years ago that silver would be $65 today, they wouldn't even believe you... uh $200 silver.

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[0:18] I think the US dollar is going to lose a lot of value relative to other currencies. And I I'm just, you know, I'm playing for the endgame.

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[37:09] And that's why the Democrats are going to win in 2028 because the economy will be worse in 2028 than it was in 2024.

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[39:05] I think we've been in a inflationary, you know, depression kind of environment... stagflationary depression is locked in.

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[18:04] the valuation it's at now is crazy... you're going to have to fill in with 10 to 20 years of like perfect, you know, operational activity before, at least in my opinion, before this thing is going to start to have pay you any type of return on the equity that you own in it.

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[19:22] I don't see a path where this company becomes like insanely profitable in the next 5 years. Maybe I'm wrong, but to add this to an index and to go out and buy it at this valuation now is you could very easily make the argument this is a $2 trillion trap door or $2 trillion air pocket.

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[7:39] Unfortunately, I would say we're on on the verge or very close to some type of reckoning. uh and I think we'll likely see it in the credit markets first and that unfortunately may feed through to the broader financial markets.

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[20:33] we don't think it's going to stop. So, you know, we haven't seen if we're thinking about the Canadian market, we haven't seen Meta, we haven't seen Oracle. if I'm those companies, why wouldn't you why wouldn't you go to Canada? Why wouldn't you go to Europe? Uh so and and the capex, you know, that 750 billion for this year is probably 750 if not more for next year. So there's going to be more and more of this debt financing layered on.

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[21:47] the more it becomes, whoa, am I being compensated? Like, why buy it today if they're going to come 6 months from now and I can buy it at a cheaper level? And I think we haven't seen that calculation yet, but it's coming.

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[26:03] assuming they price on Wednesday and the market hasn't changed my suspect is they will have a successful deal from their point of view.

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[35:01] there's a bunch of reasons why inflation isn't going away and for people who just say well the biddles conflict is done or at least dying going down uh and therefore inflation won't be an issue. Uh I think they're missing some of the plot and it's a pretty big plot.

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[4:55] the bullish outlook for them is almost baked in the cake at the moment. You've got um, everyone's going to try and derisk the straight now, the straight moving forward. So, they're going to um their back their order books are going to continue to fill that way

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[11:49] I'm buying Shell um really longdated options. So I'm going right out to um December 2030 cuz the volatility is very cheap. You get big talk to Brent. You get the trading arm as I mentioned before and you get the the um LG sort of portfolio portfolio and that's um obviously doing very well now with elevated LG prices. And so um I I really like that play here. I think um I think the selloff's been overdone.

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[18:06] I'd expect um over the coming weeks quite a significant rebound was my kind of base case

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[26:59] I'd be surprised if we didn't see more disorderly sort of energy prices moving forward to me. It yeah, looks very tight moving forward.

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[36:27] all things equal, we're going to see prices hold up and climb higher and that'll drag um that will drag Newcastle with it. Um Drag sort of higher TTF, higher JKM, and so that should feed through to Shell's earnings. That should feed through to a lot of the the pure play sort of thermal coals

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[42:19] once they're sort of flushed out the system then it'll trade sideways for a while and then it'll start the next leg up and somewhere in there is kind of the nice buying opportunity

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[42:33] I still own a basket of gold um juniors that I've had um for sort of a two years or something and just sit on it. I think they're great value and I'm not really too bothered that they've pulled back. I want to hold it for the longer term.

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[3:05] I think a lot of the sort of emerging market exchanges are going to do very well for the next decade.

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[32:30] I I believe we'll see a lot more of I think it's super bullish for solar, um, nuclear, um, batteries. It's another one. Hybrids.

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[16:13] I think that smackdown is going to come within the next 9 months into Q1. You're going to have a comeuppance here. Maybe driven by the Fed, maybe driven by Trump, maybe driven by war. Who knows? But like things are going to teeter and fall at some point.

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[9:43] Bank of America reiterated 6,000 gold by the end of this year. Goldman Sachs is at 5,400 by the end of this year. Uh, JP Morgan is at 5,50 at the end of this year. These institutions have not typically been friendly to gold over the years... I would agree with that.

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[37:42] at 28 29 cents where you just saw in the chart US I mean we just hit 65 cents before it pulled back so I think we're going to revisit that you know 55 to 65

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[5:15] I think this whole thing is imploding. And once this one goes, it's going to be like domino. You know, the Bitcoin bubble and the crypto bubble, and now, you know, more are going to go.

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[17:40] but overall, I think that the dollar is going to weaken because traders are focused more on nominal rates. The Fed is going to hike rates. They've gone from forecasting rate cuts to now two or three more hikes between now and the end of the year. But, these are quarter point rate hikes. 75 basis point hike is not going to do anything to slow the inflation train.