[0:00] I think there's going to be a lot of volatility in the market. I don't think that you have to be a genius to see that. There's just a lot of stresses. Valuations are high, tensions are high... All of this stuff is hitting at one time and I think investors need to be preparing for volatility... it's going to be, I think, a wild ride.

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[29:19] the best performing sectors were energy, materials, uh consumer staples, utilities and healthcare after that draw down. You can see those have low correlations really to the AI spend. And so I would argue that some of the commodity businesses actually might hold up quite well even though there's volatility um and some of the basic consumer staples and utilities some of the more stable businesses that are more predictable uh would would would do quite well.

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[22:45] we're seeing the same five things. explosive capex spending, sky-high valuations, market concentration amongst players, speculative fever, FOMO investing, and then the fifth is uncertainty in terms of the earnings delivery and the potential overbuild... I think it will be a shock to the market if all of a sudden we realize this isn't developing the valuations of some of these high-flyers which is pretty concentrated would have their wings clipped fairly substantially.

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[12:12] I think you're going to see the 10-year notes reach 6% before the year is over.

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[15:23] I'm expecting 40 to 60%. You said it in the headline. And I'm not expecting it in one day nor tomorrow. But at the end of the day, if you're a true investor and investing money that you can afford, there's really nothing you should do other than learn how to hedge your portfolio or let it sit

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[22:50] I think it's probably got a little bit more room to go to the downside. I would think probably in the mid-50s.

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[4:14] rates are going to start to rise, which is what we talked about a long time ago is that rates are going up. They're not going down.

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[3:07] Prairie Sky did very well up 52%. Still like it here. >> Yeah. Like it a lot. I mean 20 million plus acres in the western Canadian sedimentary basin with just huge long-term optionality run by a really astute management team. Lot of interesting things going on now with different technologies extracting oil and gas. And we're actually starting to see some more visibility around kind of LNG in Canada. So again, 5 10 year outlook. Love the company.

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[10:48] So if you underwrite that business, I think that you're getting the exchange for probably a low at worst fair valuation here. But then there's all of these different call options... So we again look at this as a primary beneficiary of to your point earlier Amber the get-richqu where people want to own these options there's zero day to expiration where it's a single day or a single week to expiry and all of that is really acrewing to bex and they've done a really good job of product innovation and marketplacing to make sure that they're going to be one of the primary beneficiaries of this trend.

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[14:40] So as you can see if you do agree with a thesis of there being long secular market here I think just from the existing corpus of the business which you're paying about 13 to 15 times forward ebata on uh you're going to do fine if not great and again revert back to the business model quality matters um this high of a margin no leverage and the kind of the flywheel around every incremental dollar of invest flows essentially flows down to adjusted IBIDA that allows you to express a view much longer term

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[19:53] I think that business in and of itself is extremely interesting. um it's probably going to grow about 25% a year for the next 2 to 3 years uh at a 90% EBIDA margin and then they're converting about 70% of that into free cash flow.

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[2:35] we still really like the water business and think that there's a decade plus of growth both in price and volume.

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[5:24] I think that we're early in what's going to be a very long, protracted cycle here, and you know, as always, the pattern of these returns is never going to be smooth and linear.

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[7:18] in this type of environment, if we think the true rate of inflation is going to be skewing more 3 to 5 versus the more historical, at least targeted benchmark of two, I think that you should be looking at a minimum hurdle bench rate benchmark rate of return of around 10% in these assets.

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[17:34] I think over the long term, absolutely. Short term, clearly there's something funky going on in the funding market and with correlations and who knows with algorithms and momentum trading. So, but yes.

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[26:33] We do. We think kind of you there's a lot of different frameworks to look at Bitcoin. You can kind of look at the hash rate and the mining economics and the halving cycle, the stock to flow, but I think all of the reasons that you want to own real-world assets also has a very similar thesis that applies to blockchain and Bitcoin.

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[31:51] I like silver a lot. Some people describe it as the higher beta version of gold, but it is hard to see a world where you're constructive on gold and silver doesn't participate because it's a much narrower, less liquid market. So, when there is a buying impulse, you see much larger moves

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[34:41] I think owning it through a royalty gives you that flexibility to extend your time horizon and really kind of look out and say, well, there's a lot of non-producing assets here and so, as those become economic, whether it's at 50, 60, 70, 80 dollar an ounce, ultimately, that's almost a free call option to you as a shareholder.

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[38:47] I think with the appropriate time horizon, but also understanding that there's going to be some volatility around coal and some ambiguity over when and how and at what price the coal assets will trade at, I think it's a very interesting special situation set up, and the price is kind of at a point where it's really difficult to ignore.

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[12:37] particularly with a changing at the Federal Reserve in the United States here with Kevin Warsh coming in, he's actually been fairly explicit that he's looking to redefine exactly what inflation is and redefine a lot of these parameters which ultimately, and I might be getting ahead of myself here, I think it's kind of a way to push through more of this nominal growth visa vis inflation transmission mechanism without necessarily having to explain for it and perhaps having a um cover to maybe be a little bit more dovish whether it's with rates or the Fed balance sheet.

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[3:28] I think you know if if you want to draw an analogy I think the best is um if we compare it you know to climbing a mountain climbing Mount Everest which is uh 8 almost 8,900 m high which is almost exactly our long-term price target.

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[4:43] I think the market usually wants to see like the round number. So, I think that we will test the $4,000. Um, but I think, you know, you really want to be aggressive buyer at those levels.

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[45:05] seasonality. Usually we see like a bottom mid June uh and then um kind of a kind of a bounce and then the lows usually um late July, mid August from a seasonal point of view. Um and this is basically what we already wrote in in in this year's report. Don't expect too much from gold.

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[28:37] I I think so. I mean, with commodity prices so high, particularly with energy prices so high, um I think that's the environment that we're in. Um and so unless something changes really on that front, David, I think we're going to have, you know, inflation numbers that are slightly more elevated than certainly expectations were at the beginning of the year.

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[11:27] I actually think, you know, there's a good some possibility, some nonzero possibility that June rolls around and he cuts 50 bips. Now, watch. Watch. He won't do it. I'll look... I'll look Yeah, I'll look like a complete idiot if that doesn't come true.

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[26:17] I actually think there's a pretty decent chance that it's not a break the glass big print this time around, but that it's more of a run it hot big print. In other words, you know, he cuts the rates, the credit starts to grow again. You know, we get all this AI buildout. Unemployment stays quite low. Um, but we have serious serious inflation and the Fed just says, 'Well, you know, we're not going to deal with that because we've got this industrial policy.'

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[27:53] maybe the stock market continues making new nominal highs. I mean, I, you know, I've kind of given up on being a bear on the stock market.

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[3:45] I published the book in February of 25. And so we're over the book has been out now over a year, almost a year and a half. Uh, and I said at that time frame I thought would happen within two years. I might be proven wrong, but we'll see what happens between now and next February.

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[19:45] in spite of recent price behavior in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, you know, I'm still massively bullish on all three of these things. And, and we're just in kind of one of those periods where they they got ahead of themselves last year.

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[19:45] in spite of recent price behavior in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, you know, I'm still massively bullish on all three of these things. And, and we're just in kind of one of those periods where they they got ahead of themselves last year.

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[19:45] in spite of recent price behavior in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, you know, I'm still massively bullish on all three of these things. And, and we're just in kind of one of those periods where they they got ahead of themselves last year.

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[28:46] a recession in in the relatively near term is highly unlikely as long as the spending that is going on right now continues at this magnitude. So, you know, you referenced the AI capex spending.

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[0:00] Michael Oliver is calling for $300 to $500 silver. He says it could happen on an aggressive timeline, potentially as early as this summer.

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[28:34] And that's what we're focused on right now. And I think that's likely to occur this month.

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[8:50] Right now, we traded down in the 68s today. Okay, I'm going to tell you this. If next week you see it up in the 62 to uh excuse me, 72 to 74 zone and you're short, you better recover. Okay? Uh because you've had your three shots to break this market down into the 50 buck level or wherever you think it's going to go. Um and you failed.

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[29:30] our technical work says that the stock market has been in a topping process for a year, more than a year... our argument is on long-term metrics that right now the thing to watch for is any not a collapse, but any move that gets you back down, let's say by the end of the quarter, especially early next quarter. So, three, four weeks from now, gets you back down to 7,000 or lower, especially getting back below that price ceiling that we had.

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[31:08] we dropped to 60,000, had a rally, we're back to 60,000. That's more than a 50% drop. I think we're going to 30,000.

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[38:44] I think the prime beneficiary will be gold because I know what the Fed's going to do, right? When the government bond market goes lower, higher yields, when certain private credit problems pop up here and there, one here, one there. All it takes is a headline or two. Uh, and then suddenly the Fed underneath the surface, while they won't be talking about it, will be doing something. Print, print, print.

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[20:25] We're going to punch through the yield highs. We're going to go through the price lows. And when you do that, the Fed, it's not one of their mandates. You know, it doesn't say we we're here to defend the government debt. Okay? But that's that's their mandate.

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[38:00] Nvidia is already looking weak to us. We're breaking certain key numbers right now on it that indicate it could provide a negative force. Uh not a collapse. Again, I'm thinking next quarter before you get the collapse effect.

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[1:33] home prices g nationally are starting to roll. There's still some bright spots in the blue cities. So, uh nationally, they're starting to roll over and that's 20% of the economy... So that should should filter in over the next uh 6 to 12 months as construction layoffs continue.

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[4:35] we're we're in the danger zone here in the next couple months. So the AI bubble we believe is going to burst.

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[3:50] semiconductor stocks are up 80% in nine weeks. These are these are blowoff tops. We've seen this before in the dotcom era and there are shortages but shortages lead to glutes and we think this is the last gasp the last the last takeoff in the AI stocks

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[7:55] if you were to like get an inheritance and put your $1 million inheritance in the stock market today, you're likely guaranteed a 0% return including dividends for 10 years, which incl which implies a a tremendous draw down between now and then.

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[18:08] technically, it looks like it wants to go find a new low at the moment. It may rally from here, but uh the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation.

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[21:50] I know when it's done, we're going to see $10,000 gold by 2030, which was I also made that call at the beginning of 2025. So, that call is intact.

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[31:40] the index has as much chance of making money in the next 10 years statistically as the man on the moon. If you go back and look at every time that the index is in the situation it is now, and then look 10 years later, it it it 72 to 82, 99 to09, you lost money. You lost money counting dividends in the index for 10 years. the chance of the index making money over the next 10 years statistically from historical mathematical Schiller cape GDP to stock market value the Buffett indicator I don't care which indicator you they're all telling you the same thing there's no chance for the S&P 500 to do well

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[12:10] the nine people that created AI were named the time person of the year around December 27th just passed and guess what's ready to happen to them? The same thing that happened to Bezos stock. Now was Bezos hugely successful? Yes. Did anybody that buy it before it and own it while it went down 85% did any of them stick around? The answer is no.

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[21:08] the people that think if we settle up with Iran that the price of oil is going to go back to 60 bucks a barrel, they are they are either drinking the wrong thing or smoking the wrong thing.

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[25:14] I actually think it's probably preferable for the the oil companies for it to settle in at 80 to 100 bucks a barrel for an extended period of time

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[26:38] the demand for oil and gas is is is going to probably rise a little bit each year with the population of the world going up

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[22:45] Well, they're very undervalued compared to 90. The market is pricing him at 70 and and President Trump still has dreams of 60. So, so uh uh we ran numbers 6 8 weeks ago and just said okay if a year from now what's if at the price of oil what would the free cash flow be for Apache or what would the free cash flow be for Oxy or what would the free cash flow be for Senovas etc and the the numbers are really outstanding and it it means there's really good value in the stocks here even though they've run up at $70 $20 a barrel.

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[38:39] So we like the home builders. It's you have to buy the home builders when there's no hope. Right. That there's lots of people that don't have a home, but there's no hope. And that means you're getting low prices... we own LAR, we own Horton, and we own NVR. And and and and we we we think they have a bright future.

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[3:12] we're now at the process of going back to normality uh which is interest rates that settle into something closer to the average of the last 40 years and stocks having to be repriced against that more typical interest rate.

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[24:01] the next thing you're going to start seeing the consolidation in the industry right there. We own Apache and Oxy and we don't understand. We We're glad they haven't been bought out yet, but we don't understand why some of the big people aren't buying them because you've got to make sure you've got all the oil you're going to need to provide for the next 10 to 20 years.

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[14:58] I'm more bullish on natural gas longterm than I am even on oil because of the there's just tremendous demand drivers... I think people are going to look back and say, 'What was I thinking? How did I not load up on natural gas at that point?'

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[19:54] US gas is 90% discount to international prices. That's just not going to stay. That's just way too big an arbitrage.

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[22:07] So, I think you're going to see another spike in coal prices coming up.

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[31:04] a lot of people think we will and, you know, could have big losses because you you look at these price charts for these major bond markets around the world, they look sick... we're going from five to six on the long-term Treasury

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[4:02] we've been warning particularly in the last couple of weeks that the US stock market was looking a little precarious, at least on a near-term basis with very poor breadth.

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[23:54] energy is just not in favor. It's it's just like it's like this crisis isn't happening. These things are priced like they were, you know, for the most part over the last few years when it was when energy we had really no really no catalyst. So that's why I think there's such great opportunity.

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[3:20] Yeah, I do. I I I do expect we'll see eventually tech have a very sharp correction.

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[19:21] I think 6,000 is probably a very reasonable level that I think we could see the S&P 500 hit.

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[22:18] it is saying we could potentially work our way up to 8500 which from where that is today that's another you know 11 12%.

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[27:16] I think we're going to see it probably underperform uh gold. I think gold will hold up much better. I do think Bitcoin has room for a very big drop to the downside. And I think we could see uh 45,000

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[15:45] you might see 4,300 before you see 6,300, but the day of reckoning is coming. And so and you're boxed in. If interest rates go up, your interest expense goes up. If interest rates go down up, well, your opportunity cost of owning gold goes down. And so it's all long gold. Just a question of when.

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[16:11] Energy infrastructure's got to be the single biggest theme around AI. There's a quadrillion dollars being spent in AI, but you know what? You got to plug it in. And so anything that affects the plugging it in, you might want to be long. You know, so it's the copper that comes. It's the uranium that's has the small nuclear reactors that people need next to these things.

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[18:26] their margins will get bigger and bigger and that's probably going to prop up the stock market a little bit more because the stock market isn't the stock market. It's just the best companies in the S&P 500.

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[9:28] In my view, private equity and private credit is a major disaster waiting to happen. And it's not just Blackstone that is kind of limiting redemptions.

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[22:00] Say all stocks related to the Trump family will go to zero. That is my prediction with a relatively high confidence.

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[6:54] more money printing is only a question of time. Only a question of time.

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[6:24] if you look at the proportion of the S&P 500 that is trading above 20 times earnings is over 80% over 80% of all the market cap in the S&P 500 has a more than 20 times earnings price tag on it. the last time that happened uh briefly in the zero interest rate environment during the pandemic but before that all the way back to the dotcom boom and so um we are at a period right now uh widespread uh you know broadly in the market where you have overvaluation risk

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[11:09] I think that um when you think about the pension landscape in Canada and some of the things that the pensions might start to do in terms of maybe look at the Canadian market uh a little bit differently than what they have over the last decade or so and maybe increase some of their allocations to Canada. Some of them have said publicly they're looking at uh this is no secret. Um the first stop might be Canadian financials where the liquidity is there and they have enough uh sort of large scale targets to kind of pad their portfolios. Uh and so um I think that should be a bit of a valuation kind of buffer for the sector as a whole.

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[27:11] we think the valuation is is pretty compelling. I think they're trading at around 13 times earnings or so. The dividend at 5% looks very sustainable to us. Um, and we don't think that there's a lot of optimism priced into the stock at that at that range.

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[29:16] as a group as a whole, we see that capex uh sort of ebbing uh towards the lower end uh going forward and that should help their free cash flow generation, should help the sustainability of their dividends, ability to pay down their debt and so we see their financials as a group improving overall here.

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[33:35] the stock still trades at less than 10 times earnings. And so valuation here given the fact that they've been able to grow the business over the last year amazingly um and given the fact that their earnings we believe will continue to grow over the next several years uh valuation is not particularly stretched.

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[36:07] over the short to medium term, I think there's probably upside to oil prices and simply by virtue of the fact that if you got a resolution and you opened up the straight of Hormuz tomorrow. Well, the Kuwaitis and the Iraqis have said that it's going to take them a little bit longer to ramp up production. The Saudis won't even be able to do it right away. And so you're not going to see this 10 to 15 million barrels per day of supply that's been shut in. You're not going to see it snap back overnight... in the meantime, while all that is happening, you'll continue to run down inventories a little bit... certainly we see a little bit more upside rather than downside.

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[0:19:57] a major currency collapse is just around the corner. Throw in the instability around hormuse and the energy side and I and I think we got a real crisis.

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[0:21:57] we're going to have higher inflation and that the knock-on effects of the bottlenecking and the even just slowing it down assuming it starts to move to some degree. Um the increase in costs that is as we mentioned the things like insurance cover shipping and everything else uh is going to have a ripple effect of stagflation um right the way through and that's going to make everybody's living's costs a lot higher.

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[0:29:37] the debt market is going to is losing its value and rates should be expected to go higher for longer, more consistently. And we've called for six major western nations do 6% as part of our October last year predictions for 2026.

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[0:33:22] I do see uh a a reversal to continue in gold ounces so what are we looking at the NASDAQ divided by gold es as strong as these last three months have been you have to look at it in the overall sense of the year... I would argue it hasn't and you will start to get gold being appreciated again.

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[0:35:56] I'd almost bet my bottom dollar that that's the the last swallow of summer uh on that green candle.

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[0:41:49] And I would say the same a little bit for silver... we see a possible risk that the gold silver ratio is going to have a little squeeze up again. So we also here we're in a bit of a flag and we see the possibility that that could go up. So that means a little bit of underperformance from silver as well.

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[0:43:11] Don't forget I'll also point to Bitcoin. We've been short Bitcoin and Ethereum quite a bit and it's been paying incredibly well... The mystique on uh Bitcoin is certainly not very strong at the moment. And it seems to be uh bearing facing quite a bit of a brunt of uh people lightening up on the high beta tech space to get some IPO action.

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[0:00:23] it's going to be platinum, silver, and gold. Those are your winners.

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[0:01] silver was our number Silver was and actually remains our number one pick for the year um before it hit um 120 ounces. um dollars per ounce before before the war when it hit its high. We had suggested it would get to that point which which it did. Um from where it was going into the year and then of course it's fallen back and it stayed in this sort of $75 per ounce range. I think that is a tremendous opportunity. So I I'm not off silver... I'm absolutely still bullish on silver. I still see it getting back to 120 or higher by the end of the year.

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[0:10] we had suggested that copper would be above seven actually by the end of this year dollars per pound. We think that's going to continue already seeing breaks above that.

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[27:02] I think uranium um is is actually undervalued at at at 85 86 right now. Um so so I think that's one that that hasn't quite gotten itself through um through the system yet in terms of how how severe the geopolitical control of enriched uranium is

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[12:26] I believe that's what's going to happen when Kevin Worsh comes in. And I think this is part of the market positioning um that has been evolving in the wake of the Iran war even with the higher spikes we've seen in oil driving higher inflation costs is that we're going to see more bond buying from central banks whether it's called QE whether it's um less runoffs

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[11:54] we've got a $39 trillion um amount of debt outstanding, which is only going to increase. So, if you even look at, you know, let's round that up to 40 by the end of the year.

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[36:05] even if it changes tomorrow you're still going to have at least a month or two of filtering through over 3% inflation. The Fed likes it below 2%. I personally think that's a hard number to to get to

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[29:43] I think we'll have pockets though emerging that for the first time in a long time have real potential food shortages. And I think of parts of Africa in particular that are even more dependent on the ability to import food and parts of um parts of western part of if you divide Asia into eastern Asia, the western part of Eastern Asia, there are some sensitive areas that you could lose food security more quickly than we would in developed countries.

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[17:39] lower prices are likely to persist in the US, not just because of the relationship with China and even if they buy enough soybeans to meet certain obligations under a couple of agreements, the rerouting around the world is very expensive and the seller essentially is paying for that at this point.

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[2:41] The base case to me is uh that we're probably going to see further cuts uh into uh uh into the interest rate uh environment not only the short end but also the long end eventually because the system cannot survive if we see this

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[3:18] I think that that it's on the cards uh for the next 12 to 24 months. And if you think that way uh there's going to be a lot of changes in in how uh a lot of assets that tend to benefit from the suppression of rates uh will will will work through the system.

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[13:54] The margins of gold companies and silver companies is drastically higher today than copper companies. But that's just a function of how much prices of precious metals have run up relative to copper itself. I think I think we're in the process of seeing that shift now where copper companies will also benefit from a better uh profit margin uh which will be historical too in my in my view.

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[18:28] Yes, it's likely to be the case. The repricing would probably be on the upside given the supply constraints.

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[10:12] emerging markets exposure uh to me is is becoming a bigger and bigger pillar of my own portfolio because of this uh of the situation.

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[4:41] I've been in the camp of no, that's not going to happen around the 70 to $80 mark by the end of the year. And I say that because we're already looking at oil prices um in the low 90s now.

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[11:27] So the fact that we only have uranium prices now in the sort of high8s to me is a very very low price point for where uranium will go and where in which uranium processing will go in terms of companies that can do both that actually have processing capabilities and also um uranium supply mines throughout the world

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[23:03] we can see inflation basically keep rates where they are in the short end, but in the long end we can see more bond buying.

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[23:09] it would not surprise me at all. And like I said, I look forward to seeing the language of this um that there's some loosening of language related to QE or some sort of bond buying by the FOMC committee when they um release their statement in two weeks.

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[29:37] we continued to see gold at 6,000 by the end of the year. Um we put that as as a limit um as a level as a level for this year um when we looked at our our January um which we do every year our January sort of forecast for the commodities that we're most looking at. Um, and I I don't see that changing.

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[7:24] this is telling us we should see RSP the equal weighted stock market based on the current price at 208. It should actually run up to about 217. It's about a 4% move.

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[7:51] we've got the NASDAQ breaking out and really starting to run again. If we go back to the NASDAQ, it just broke out from this high and it is showing signs that it wants to keep melting up.

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[2:09] what comes next is probably a more ugly phase. So you're likely to see a sort of turbulent phase where liquidity gets drained more quickly and the direction of markets is more likely down.

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[40:50] Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months

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[38:09] energy stocks to my mind look pretty attractive right now. Uh resource stocks, gold miners probably a decent area to be in.

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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.

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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.

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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.

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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.

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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.

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[18:25] So, this party will end at some point in time, Amber. And I think that's unquestionable. I I don't think that it's in danger of ending in the next year or so.

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[15:10] I am putting fresh dollars to it today... I've made the case, Amber, that you can still invest in Cisco here, that we're not in danger of having reached the top of the parabola.

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[21:56] I do see more gains ahead for Adobe. One more thing and you know it's a consistent theme with me. Adobe is buying back shares and it's buying back its shares at 10 times earnings.

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[26:07] I just can't see mortgage rates really coming down... it's really hard to see the housing market at large picking up with interest rates where they are.

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[26:23] I don't see the 10-year Treasury coming down, not meaningfully, and some of that is the negatives of inflation and debt deficit financing it, but some of it is also just good economic growth.

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[32:23] many of these parabas may face a day of reckoning in the uh coming couple of weeks with SpaceX because there's going to be something like a hundred billion odd dollars of capital, fresh capital that's needed to invest uh in SpaceX. That capital's got to come from somewhere... I think it's the Parabas if you ask me. I think that's where the money is most likely to come from.

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[38:27] I think there is a pretty good chance that Lululemon becomes um a value trap. Uh you uh uh Under Armour is a great example of that in the same space.

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[10:14] We're not bearish on this on the space. uh we just think there's going to be a better opportunity to buy it in the summer or in the fall uh buy the AI trade. We're probably in the fourth or fifth inning of what will be a nine inning to overtime innings game.

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[19:20] I think that over the next 12 months, assuming the war is ended, not ended, but like some type of fugazi deal uh or real deal in the next couple of weeks that gives him the runway by the end of the year to probably do a cut before the end of this year, which is non-consensus. And if you want to, you know, place a a high high return bet on those gambling poly markets or whatever you're referring to, that's probably the one to do. Everyone's betting on a hike. They'll probably wind up with a cut

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[19:54] he'll follow through again probably next year as well. And I don't think he'll have much more room to do a lot more than that regardless of how much uh liquidity he stops up by selling bonds on the open market.

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[29:57] If you take defensive sectors, David, uh they are at a record low waiting in the S&P 500. Uh going all the way back 25 years. What does that mean? It means staples. It means healthcare. Means utilities. It's dropped from 35% waiting in the S&P down to 16%

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[32:10] I think Alibaba is the cheapest way to play AI globally. I think you if you're betting on a weak dollar, you want that emerging markets uh exposure. I think Baba's the way to play it.

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[33:54] We think this could be a $150 stock. The last time they had operating margins like they're targeting in 27 and 28, it was $150 stock. It's still trading at 50 or 60 bucks.

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[36:33] I think in next quarter's earnings call when everyone realized a lot of this earnings power in Q1 was related to paper gains. Uh in Q2, they're going to more carefully assess uh operating gains and and not see any because it's just too early to get that return on investment. I think that's when you're going to get your your break in price.

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[12:40] Now it's back closer to 100, probably going to 60 before it goes back to 200.

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[12:13] I think that's starting to uh create, you know, potentially a pretty bearish brew for sometime um in early 2027.

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[11:27] I think that inflation will prove itself to be far stickier in part because the hormuse crisis is not that existential. In part because consumers can weather 90 to $100 oil.

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[14:13] I think we could even see a hike this year, particularly after the midterm elections. So that creates a context in 27 of global liquidity tightening.

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[24:23] yes, I do think that on the margin, uh, US uh, the attractiveness of US assets is going to decline over the next, you know, 5 2 6 7 8 years.

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[27:28] The problem is that you know tech itself I don't think is going to outperform the other sectors over the next 5 years and that's the irony because we're in the middle of the AI super cycle but tech is not necessarily doing great what's doing great is actually uh either the capex plays that enable cap uh AI to be built out or all the other sectors we're using AI will boost productivity and margins like healthcare or finance.

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[8:09] I think for the next 5 to 10 years um you know I would say probably to air on the side of caution 5 years Taiwan is safe beyond those five years it doesn't Taiwan is going to have to recalibrate its ambitions relative to the reality on the planet earth

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[21:16] I would like somewhere between four and five a day by the end of August. And I think that we will be okay at that point.

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[14:36] in the long run, as I said, gold's going up a lot, but I pay a lot of attention to what's happening to sentiment in the short run... I think I think it'll be a it'll look good in a few years.

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[19:10] I I'll mention to you that, you know, I I definitely think we're in a bubble. Doesn't mean it's going to break for for AI uh in the next 6 months, but it will break. And when it breaks, it'll be it'll be pretty catastrophic for the sector.

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[20:51] this bull market won't be over until silver's, you know, Eric says maybe eight to one. You know, I'd say, you know, 20 to 30 to1, 35 to1, you should be certainly paying attention to, hey, are we are we getting near the end of the bull market? And we're nowhere near those numbers.

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[6:49] you said aluminum may the next commodity squeezed by the Hormuz crisis. Well, uh be because you've got a lot of aluminum production in in in uh the uh in in the Gulf nations. So at at the margin it it makes a big difference.

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[10:52] the inflation genie is out of the bottle in the United States and it's not going to be put back anytime soon. Th this will be with Trump and one of Trump's big Achilles heels throughout uh at least in the foreseeable future. So that means maybe throughout a big chunk of his second term, he he's going to have this inflation problem around his neck.

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[19:01] no recession in the immediate outlook. All the data look okay. The money supply is being gooseed. Everything is being pumped up.

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[19:29] especially after the the the USIsraeli attack on Iran and the closure or functional closure of the straight of Armuse that that is has caused actually in the last few months real weight just adjusted for inflation have have actually gone negative. They're not flat, they're actually negative, they decreased.

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[25:22] I think there'll be revisions downward in the growth projections

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[25:55] I I don't think that's in the cards quite frankly because you you've you've got a a spoiler in the mix and that's Israel. Israel doesn't want does not want the thing to be resolved... So So that's why I'm quite skeptical that there'll be any uh reasonable resolution to the to the war that the US and Israel started.

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[32:49] Y, yeah, yields are going up. Yields are going up anyway because the interest rate is a function of the inflation rate... And I think that I think they'll remain elevated. And that's why you've got the 10year at uh you know, almost 4 and a.5%.

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[17:32] So, so, so we can we can see more of what we've been seeing recently, and that is uh elevated trade deficit numbers, which of course will aggravate Trump to to no end and and uh it probably motivate more threats about tariffs and trade policies from the Trump administration.

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[10:01] we're still going to see much higher inflation this year. Julia, I haven't changed that prognosis. Double digits still. Yeah, I think so because we're going to see shortages in some really important commodities, things like fertilizer for the farm for example, and that cost is going to get passed through consumers.

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[13:49] I think the Fed is inevitably going to have to pick up the pace of purchases of Treasury securities. They're going to let their mortgage book run off. And I still think there's a good chance that Kevin Worsh is going to swap the mortgage securities that he owns with the Treasury to get Treasury securities

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[29:54] I doubt the committee is going to take action as a new chairman is being seated. So I wouldn't expect them to do anything in June. Although I do believe they will remove the language from the statement that alludes to a cut in the future.

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[31:20] I wouldn't be surprised to see a majority of the committee in favor of a rate hike in July.

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[34:58] We could see three, four new M&A deals in housing announced between now and the end of the year. And I mean big deals. Top 10 lenders merging.

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[5:33] we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market. So what this is is this is a Fibonacci retracement. And and if you're not fi familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels... a retracement of you know back to kind of the 50% retracement level which you would kind of expect after such a big advance. Not saying that's got to happen but and that's where the previous breakout high was. So it' be a retracement of the previous breakout. That's about a 7 and a half% decline from here.

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[28:37] the fundamental underpinnings of the market suggest markets will be higher by the end of this year, but you're going to have a correction most likely between now and and then.

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[10:24] This is what's called a parabolic move. This is not sustainable... your first correction point is at $320 a share. You're at 600. You're talking about a 50% correction just to get to your first level of support. and and the 50-month moving average is the long-term running support of this rally... this is about a 75% decline in the markets just to get back to that moving average, which it will most likely do.

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[9:07] As we look forward into the remainder of 2026 and into the start of 2027, the supplies that we're missing that are not there anymore hurts the global SMD. And so who does that put more pressure on? It's the buyer because that manufacturer for the rest of this year and into next year is going to be able to sit there and say supplies are tight. You need the tons. I can afford to sit back and wait for you to step forward and buy my price because I just don't feel that pressure. I feel like I'm in a more powerful position. And that's where you start to get some of these points of view that as a whole these markets are going to be higher priced.

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[25:03] I think this year, if they start coming back and saying, 'Hey, we've done the crop tour. These yields are not looking good.' But I think they are going to be taken a little more seriously because the fear is going to be there that they didn't fertilize. So the yields are going to be impacted and that's going to be the first thing the market gets to see to actually show there's going to be lower yields across the board.

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[2:28] I think it's going to happen again probably longer and deeper.

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[14:53] If you're going to be bullish on anything from a multi-year perspective, I do think emerging markets are the place to be. And I say that from a pure mean reversion perspective, and I've been wrong for a number of years on it, but maybe I'm finally right on this.

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[15:21] At some point that's going to reverse. I don't know when, but it seems like it may be starting and it's one of the most underinvested parts of the globe.

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[6:28] I'd actually argue that tech is about to be regulated like hell. uh we are seeing we are seeing a very interesting societal push back against AI implementation.

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[13:41] Like gold like I I'd argue like treasuries themselves long duration which has been the worst place to be worst bare market in history for treasuries which is actually bullish going forward

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[7:38] technically, the NASDAQ could run about almost about 10% to its first target. That's just saying the current vibrations and the momentum in the market is saying we should see the NASDAQ rally about 10%. The 100% measured move is way up here at 35,400. So, it's showing about a 18% move to the upside.

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[29:37] the downside for silver is pretty dramatic. Like from where we are, as you and I are speaking today, which is uh May 28th, there's a 46% haircut that could come into silver, which is quite substantial.

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[32:35] GDXJ, the juniors here are looking at potentially, you know, about another 25% pullback from where they are.

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[26:16] I think we finished the year at a much higher level from a stock market standpoint than we are today but that doesn't mean we can't have a let's call it 10 to 15% draw down between now and then as a function of central banks reaction function uh getting incrementally hawkish

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[29:29] Yeah. No, I think we could if folks are on your your channel using the R word. Um just tell them to punt it into the ocean at least until late next year. Just take the R word, punt it into the ocean

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[31:01] We've been saying since last April it's at least 3%. And so consensus is about 50% too low on growth relative to our paradigm C theme.

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[21:00] yes yes and yes... we ultimately have to figure out whether or not the Kevin Walsh Federal Reserve is going to look through uh these sticky inflation pressures... The only thing that's negative is sticky inflation. And in our opinion, we think the sticky inflation thing may cause some problems uh once we get uh maybe you know um you know may cause some problems over the next let's call it 3 to six months.

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[1:41] I I believe it is. I I I think what you're seeing in gold uh and also what you're seeing in silver is a digestion and a consolidation of the dramatic rise that we saw last year and the early part of this year. Uh we we know you can't sprint forever. You need to take a breather and I think that's exactly what's happening.

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[12:32] I think circumstances as of right now, the Fed's not going to be cutting. Now, I don't necessarily think that they're going to hike, but the long end of the bond market has already hiked for them.

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[22:15] I I be have I I want to get back in because that supply demand deficit is still very much intact. Uh silver's down obviously dramatically from its peak what for 354% from its highs. So it's had that correction. uh I'm just waiting for things to sort of settle out and that period as I talked about earlier of consolidation digestion after that parabolic move needs to needs to now create a sort of a technical base but from a fundamental standpoint I think the fundamentals are still very much positive for silver

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[39:09] at some point, I do think you're going to see a price response in the big row crops like corn, soybean, and wheat that the farmer desperately needs to be able to afford the big rise in fertilizer prices. Unfortunately, those of us that eat every day, we're not going to be too happy about a big jump in crop prices because that's going to flow through into general food prices. Uh so that's the dynamic I think that you're in. But I do think there's an a bull market ahead of us both in terms of of crop prices and a further rise in fertilizer prices that will benefit the fertilizer producers.

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[36:17] I think right now while it's probably the most boring area of the market, it's certainly the most hated and I think there's potentially an inflection here. uh particularly if the war ends and we get some relief on package on on on polyethylene uh where ethylene prices generally and polyethylene and that ends up in packaging and resonance and and and so on that a lot of these food companies are relying on

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[29:20] I I I see a further clogging up of this private equity, private credit sort of ecosystem that um that that is that that feasted for many years on cheap money and of course money is is is not so cheap anymore.

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[6:49] I disagree with that... Bond markets price in hikes and then they're never delivered. I think we're seeing a repeat of that.

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[33:40] I think it's at the limits personally speaking in 1987 the Japan's uh stock market was 40% before it went into its downturn... you're going to see people move capital or repatriate capital back home to their home countries.

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[35:00] we do kind of expect banks to be US banks especially to become larger buyers of US fixed income especially at these higher rates... we do think that um that there's a a domestication happening of the US bond market away from foreign investors uh and that will be where most of the demand's going to come from going forward.

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[29:01] the average life span of a reserve currency is right at 90 years old. Okay, we're already there. So, if you go back, you know, before us it was Britain and then it was France, Netherlands, Spain, and on and on. So, the average just in the last 5 600 years the average life span, if you do the math, is right at 90. Well, we're over 100.

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[33:19] gold is the stable play here. This is where whatever happens, you're going to be good and you're probably going to increase it. Because that's what history tells us. This is why the central banks are buying gold at these levels.

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[30:04] I think since 2000 to now, so for the last 25 years, the use of the dollar in international trade has dropped 40%.

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[10:09] it's trading 900, it's going to touch a thousand. Uh, you know, there's an old saying in the trading business, if it's trading 90, it's going to 100. We sell all the time. And, uh, what we're finding is if it's tra, the same holds true in the hundreds. If it's trading 900, it will go to a,000. And so I think Micron's going to going to get there potentially this week.

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[23:01] if you look at the uh that XLE the energy the energy sector the S&P 500 um it's still trading around 57 bucks and is really nicely up on the year. Um I think you could see some pressure down to 50 bucks and we get down there I'm going to be um really looking at at what energy stocks to buy.

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[23:40] Hallebertton and and Slumber are going to be I I think in a position to do very well over the next couple of years ser rebuilding and supplying um uh oil output.

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[27:21] the the the problem with high-end is there really there really isn't a high-end anymore. There's Hermes and Chanel. Then there's this group of luxury brands that people like and wear about. Um, those are the areas where demand will drop. Like... that end has gone way up that that the middle the high-end middle market those are the areas where as when the economy is softer that's where you're going to see I think the pain and Dagio falls under that.

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[34:45] the entire software space there are some names that are probably worth worth getting into at this point that have have been sold but like Adobe CRM I I I think there's real risk there.

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[39:57] So I think Mattel at 15 bucks. Um I think that that weekend opening of Masters of Universe is going to be really good... This is going to be the the the thing for the summer... This is going to be the Barbie movie of 2020 of 2026.

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[13:01] you'll you'll be sitting on huge gains in these space stocks. And if you don't sell, you're going to probably regret it because money is going to suck right out of those and right into uh SpaceX

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[18:25] you merge that with the SpaceX at the same time. That's your recipe for a little bit of a pullback. Maybe not a correction but 3 four 5% something along those lines here coming off these all-time highs.

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[23:12] I think you could see some pressure down to 50 bucks and we get down there I'm going to be um really looking at at what energy stocks to buy.

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[21:35] oil WTI is not going back to 65 bucks a barrel anytime soon... I think we're going to land somewhere between 80 and 85 bucks a barrel for WTI

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[28:57] the the high-end middle market those are the areas where as when the economy is softer that's where you're going to see I think the pain and Dagio falls under that.

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[39:57] So, I think Mattel at 15 bucks. Um I think that that weekend opening of Masters of Universe is going to be really good... This is going to be the the the thing for the summer... This is one I'm going to take a shot on.

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[23:40] Hallebertton and and Slumberge are going to be I I think in a position to do very well over the next couple of years ser rebuilding and supplying um uh oil output.

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[34:11] gold and silver for for the decade. And so it it has both offensive and defensive uh components

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[7:43] This is not going to stop. This is going to grow. Uh there's no doubt that, you know, I think Michael Sailor with Bitcoin showed a different an interesting strategy of putting different things on his balance sheets as a healthcare software company. Obviously, he went a step further and took debt out. Um but I see this as a definitely a growing trend.

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[2:51] I don't think we will see but I don't think we'll see the oil price stay down for very long.

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[24:48] I'm expecting this trend to continue not just because not just because of the cycles, although that's where I started the conversation, but if you look at where we are right now, the foreign markets relative to the US market is at a 50-year low.

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[25:33] we're going to see rotation out of the big US growth tech names, tech growth names, and into things that have lagged uh primarily for foreign markets, but also for value stocks, for smaller stocks, and and and so on.

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[29:23] commodity stocks, as you know, are very very close to 100year lows relative to the US equity market. Again, extreme levels of relative underperformance.

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[37:02] we're going to see a I'll say continuation of QE because they really started QE again back in December. the nonQEQ. Um um but I think we're going to see a continuation of that and perhaps you know that will get even more dramatic in terms of size if they feel they can't really lower interest rates

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[2:52] I mean I think that it will actually hit the markets when we see bond yields run up again um particularly at the long end. And um they're breaking out. I mean they're all some of them have already broken out. I mean Germany's for example um France's Japan's they're already breaking out on the upside. The other G7s will follow.

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[11:59] Will gold go up? Of course it will because what's going on is our currencies are going through the floor. And um you know you know just because it pauses it doesn't mean to say it stopped. It's going to continue at an accelerating rate

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[12:12] It's going to continue at an accelerating rate which is why bond yields will rise, equity markets will collapse, sell them in May go away and um precious metals will have the appearance of rising whereas in fact they're just maintaining their value.

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[13:17] copper to me is probably the best set up uh for for every one of the metals... we're sitting here at all-time highs today. That's why projects like Madison are so important

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[18:19] I think gold's telling us something. Um we live in a highly volatile world today. Um so, I mean, if you look back 5 years ago, I think we're sitting at roughly $1,600 gold. Um you know, here we are. It's just under 5,000. Let's call it 4,500 today. Uh but, you know, that's sort of roughly a 160% increase over the last 5 years. Gold is a flight to safety. Um we're in a world that's incredibly volatile. And so, I think that's what we're seeing.

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[46:25] I would be shocked to see it break silver break the 65 level or thereabouts where it was the last collapse that we saw... I don't think it violates it.

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[46:25] I would be shocked if you saw a threehandle on on gold and it would last a matter of seconds as the arbitrage would just gobble it all up.

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[0:00] The US is acting like a bad old emerging market but trading at a huge premium and so we're big believers that over the next several years uh the US premium is going to dissipate and that's across financial assets. So the PE multiple is going to uh shrink the difference between US and rest of the world.

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[12:47] we believe we're in the early innings of a secular leadership change away from the United States to the rest of the world led by emerging market equity.

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[18:20] you definitely want to be underweight bonds and you want to stay underweight bonds to your question because we are in a tripolar world spending super cycle and it's on existential issues like AI like climate like defense in other words people are going to spend they're going to continue to spend they have to spend and so no you definitely don't want to be in developed market sovereign debt uh for years. I I mean I I would imagine we look out at this point we're looking out towards 2030 and uh we think this uh tripolar world spending super cycle is sustainable through that period

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[32:25] the dollar is going to depreciate uh and that's going to continue to provide a tailwind for the rest of the world. Everyone likes to say, well, it hasn't happened yet. The point is that it's happening, but it's it's happening slowly and will just build over time.

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[19:49] what should replace bonds in the traditional 60/40 portfolio? Commodities... we're a big believer that you know the AI age... the digital eats the physical. In other words, you have no AI if you don't have physical commodities.

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[21:35] Copper miners are printing money and are going to continue to print money for years and years. And so we're we we have a big position that's our favorite right now in copper miners.

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[23:57] we're quite bullish Europe. Uh Europe is the big winner from the dual ceasefires. We expect the US Iran deal. So more than a ceasefire, I guess, and a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine.

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[25:44] China is one of the last countries that's going to have to raise interest rates. It's finally defeating deflation which is one of the big themes we've been focused on. Uh and we think that is very bullish for Chinese corporate profits. We think that's very bullish for Chinese domestic investor allocation... we're very long uh the ashare market in China

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[24:02] We expect the US Iran deal. So more than a ceasefire, I guess, and a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine. Uh we think that's way more likely than your prediction markets predict. I think right now that prediction is like 6% by the end of the summer. Uh we think it's much much higher.

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[24:02] We expect the US Iran deal. So more than a ceasefire, I guess, and a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine. Uh we think that's way more likely than your prediction markets predict.

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[0:09] Iran as we call it is the single best advertisement for clean energy that one can imagine. Right? All of a sudden clean energy is not woke. It's not it's not crazy. It's simply clean, secure, available... we're big believers that this environment is very powerful.

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[2:10] I think yields are going a lot higher on the longer end in particular. And eventually the stock market is going to notice that and you're going to start to see some weakness there.

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[2:22] And then I think gold is going to break out of this consolidation because investors have been focusing on the nominal increase in yields as if somehow that is a negative for gold. It's not.

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[3:57] we're going to be looking at a sovereign debt crisis and a US dollar crisis I think before the end of the Trump term.

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[12:02] I think we're going to hit 50 trillion before Trump finishes his term. and and that's going to be because the Fed is going to be back in QE mode, uh, monetizing a lot of this debt that the rest of the world no longer wants to finance.

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[6:59] I think the Trump second term in its entirety is going to uh deliver a bigger increase in the cost of living than the Biden term. So it's going to be a bigger problem inflation in Trump's second term than it was under Biden. uh especially in the last two years. I think that's where it's going to be the worst. Under Biden, inflation was the worst during his first two years, but I think in Trump, it's going to be the back end of his term, the last two years where inflation is going to be uh the worst probably into the double digits.

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[12:58] I think oil's going a lot higher and so are bond yields. Even if the war ends, uh, which, you know, who knows if that's actually going to happen anytime soon, but even if it does, uh, I think that these trends are going to remain in place.

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[17:44] that $125 peak that's not the peak for silver. That's just the first stop on a long road that I think is going to see much much higher prices for silver.

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[17:39] this is going to resolve itself with another big up move. Uh and you know so that $125 peak that's not the peak for silver.

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[20:58] I do think we're we're going to get a big decline in the stock market at some point. you know, we're at nosebleed valuations uh in a in a big AI uh tech bubble uh that's at some point going to burst.

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[29:20] I think you're going to see a lot of these, uh, buyouts, which is why, you know, my our fund is about a third in these juniors. And you know that's been a drag on performance in the last couple of years. But I think ultimately that's going to be what causes us to have substantial outperformance because I think all these stocks are going to get bought out for big premiums.

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[31:56] They may have to double or triple from here before before that happens.

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[9:08] a lot of the crypto investors uh basically throw in the towel on that and realize they kind of got suckered into a into a pyramid Ponzi type scheme and that Bitcoin isn't actually digital gold and so you're going to see a rush uh to get into the real thing.

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[8:35] Are we going to hit $150 oil? No, I don't think so. And here's why. Because both US and Iran want out of this for different reasons.

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[7:30] I was pricing in one to two cuts this year. That's now completely off the table. I'm now thinking on hold for the rest of the year.

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[11:34] we are still playing for more upside. The economy still um is still chugging along. It's not gang busters, but doing well. The corporate profits, as we talked about, are phenomenal right now. We've got technicals still good. So, we're still playing from the long side.

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[16:14] I have been telling my clients for the last year or so that uh where we believe a big rotation out of US and into Canada into the emerging markets is going to unfold. And it's not a six-month investment. We're talking a multi-year thing for this

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[14:05] commodities go in long-term cycles, roughly about six, seven years. Um, and we think we're in a higher inflationary environment. So, we think the next couple years look good for commodities.

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[17:33] we think value, value stocks, those are that have cheaper valuations, cheaper P and cheaper price to book, which have been overlooked, we think value will then outperform and at the same time, if I'm correct, Canada, emerging markets and other areas will start to outperform

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[23:03] we're just kind of bullish on commodities, bullish on oil prices. Yes, they could pull back um uh short-term if there's a u a sessation of activities, but we're still uh uh bullish on oil prices.

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[10:05] gold has not made a higher high yet, although it looks like it's probably going to make a higher low. It doesn't look like it's going to drop below that March low to me. So, I think it's going to make a higher low and the higher high will come during the next daily cycle

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[10:39] they're probably going to try and hold silver below 70. I think it's 78. And if they can push it below 77, they will.

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[11:13] I think we're going to go I think we'll retest the all-time highs during this intermediate cycle. Probably make higher highs.

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[11:34] back in the wall of worry depending on how long we can keep it there. We may have two, three more years. We might even we might even make it into the next eight-year cycle low, which is going to be doing 3030 and then we get our final parabolic move in metals into the top in 32 33.

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[24:06] I think by the time it's all over, I think silver will probably outperform the the mining ETFs. So, but either one of them is going to make good money. Pick a number. Let's say silver goes up 500% from here and GDX goes up 475%.

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[30:30] I do think oil's probably going a lot higher. I I suspect we're going to go above $14 what $7 was the all-time high. I suspect we're going to go above that during this um this bull market for commodities.

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[33:28] I I think we were what were we upper teens or something in the in the late 70s? I I'd be willing to bet we're probably going to go back to that level. I don't think we're going to hyperinflate, but I think we're going to have some pretty bad inflation years ahead.

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[32:06] I think the Fed is probably going to cut here some at some point even though um you know the stock market is is going parabolic.

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[18:38] metals, despite the fact that they're frustrating right now, I think are probably a good play over the next 2 3 months because I I think they will get some momentum here in the not too distant future.

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[5:00] back in October, you introduced this $17,250 price target... let's say that the Dow loses between now and 2030 30%. And then instead of one one, it's going to be 2:1 ratio. That's how you get to $17,250.

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[7:22] So you're going to see inflation by it was 3.8% last month in the US CPI, you're going to see four, you're going to see 4 and a.5%.

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[14:56] in the early phase of a recession, gold doesn't do well. It never does well simply because people have less money to spend. and governments have not started to spend, you know, the money yet to get the economy going. As soon as they start to, you know, print money, then gold does well again. But in the early phase of a recession, it doesn't... So, um I think that they will solve the issue. But in short term, the gold price can go down

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[1:10] He believes that we're on the cusp of a lost decade plus in nominal equity returns and meaningful real losses if investors keep using the same old 40-year buy the dip stayong growth playbook.

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[2:28] we've entered a generational time of populism... deglobalization, and rising structural inflation... This is when you start to see commodity scarcity because if we start splitting up and doing protectionism... inflation through fiscal spending and fiscal dominance ends up slowing things the broad growth and definitely profits down

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[0:38] higher interest rates leads to multiple contraction and profit margin contraction... about 75% of businesses have profit margins collapse as inflation gets going. And yes, revenue increases, but the actual profit margin decreases.

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[21:09] This is what's leading to the boom in precious metals and and and crypto but also those are assets but also to the growth of hedge fund assets structured product options trading. All of these things have an AUM tripled or quadrupled in four years in AUM and are still a tiny fraction of the broader investment universe.

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[8:18] This is when you start to see global conflict. This is when you start to see commodity scarcity because if we start splitting up and doing protectionism, we have plenty of commodities in this world if we all just trade and share. But when commodities are sequestered in certain countries and certain places, commodity cost starts to rise as well.

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[17:22] Spoiler alert. Um there won't be any deal. I promise you there won't be any deal. I wish I wish I could be more optimistic. This is just this is political theater.

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[27:37] my base case is that hormones never returns to normal flows. And there are many reasons for that. The first is political. If if I am Iran and I now control the straight of Hormuz, which gives me it makes me the most powerful country in the world essentially... Why would I ever give that up?

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[49:48] some of that production is never going to come back. Now, I don't know what percentage of that production, but I can tell you where it is. And most of that older production that has been underwater flood, as we call it, is in Iraq. Iraq's a big producer, huge producer. All right. So a lot of that Iraqi and and Iran by the way.

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[5:39] all that means is that there's a lag and and it it's coming to us as well... we're getting very close to running out of our savings account. And once that happens, then we got no money.

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[9:43] I still see growth uh maintaining at above 2% this year very close to the the baseline and and the Fed's baseline

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[10:05] they came into the year with inflation core PCE falling to mid twos or 2.5 or 2.6 at the end of this year and now it looks like it will be closer to three or even higher than slightly higher than 3%.

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[10:25] the Fed will find uh as even under Kevin Wars who who wants to cut will find it very hard to to cut. So um and we so that's the gist of the growth picture just based on growth alone it is not weak enough to justify uh for uh for Kevin Ward to find evidence to cut.

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[11:51] I think Wall Street has very well priced in a peak inflation in for May. So what you have shown here is the May CPI print and if you look at the fixing it's pricing in a declining a disinflating year-over-year. So markets think that May is the peak. We also have have been saying that May is the peak. So inflation will be falling.

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[18:25] when I looked at capex cycle I found that they tend to last about 3 years on the way up and 3 years on the way down and right now we are in the very beginning of a new one. I actually see this hexic cycle having at least another one or two year to to go considering last year is the first year.

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[9:27] I think our baseline for the defense budget is it will increase by another at least 200 billion. And so it will be a 1.1 trillion budget that will add 6 percentage point to growth impulse heading into the new fiscal year after September 2026.

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[6:08] we are uh forecasting that about 100 billion will be dispersed this year. So now that adds .3 percentage point of growth impulse to the economy.

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[7:13] the case Schiller um uh measure of valuation of the S&P 500 is at its second highest level above normal valuations in history. So if you go back 150 years, there's only been one time when the case uh measure of valuation was any higher in relative term. So yes, we are late stage and we are um you know seeing that final uh stages of blowoff in asset markets.

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[21:16] breaking support in terms of the the uh foreign exchange value of the US dollar. That's also uh looks weak. It looks like it's on a precipice. uh it's been testing uh up in the high 90s right now. It's broken through down through a 100.

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[20:38] we're pretty much poised on a precipice of interest rates on long-term government debt breaking out to the upside.

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[46:05] I don't see this really getting um there's no path of this getting better uh for the American household other than those in the top 1% other than those in the top 10%

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[7:54] I think we've seen the pullback in gold. I think we're seeing gold in consolidation. And I think the gold has already anticipated the higher rates. It's already anticipated what was going on. And I think now you're starting to see some new money buyers come in and holding it in consolidation, waiting for the next big move. And I happen to believe the next big move in gold will be higher. I could see new highs this year. In fact, you know, I believe that we're going to get to 6,000 this year in gold.

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[8:43] Silver tried to break out last week, failed a little bit, but I I could see new highs in silver this year as well. I'm expecting to see silver get back over 120

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[10:14] history tells us that it's a lot closer because typically during this midterm election cycle between May and October we have averaged about an 18% selloff in that period of time.

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[2:59] I would wait for a pullback to buy... I do think that to get in initially, you're going to overpay. And I think you're better off waiting for a pullback and a and let it trade for a while to get the real view of where this is going to go. I think that when you look at the overall picture, you'll overpay if you buy it at the beginning

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[25:16] I think uh we will have be having by the end of this year recession nearly everywhere but the real recession will be next year. That's when the recession will get polite. will be deep

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[24:09] on our work by the time we're in 2028 probably going to see us and global inflation in double figures. That means that the bond investors want a return on their money. So bond yields will be even higher and you have debt invested. Well, it's going to crash.

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[25:16] that's when you will have a temporary collapse in long bond yields, governments and central banks throwing everything into the kitty so that you get a resurgence of inflation. Take us into the real collapse some somewhere between 2030 and 2032.

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[26:24] We have copper by 2030 rising, doubling in price, $28,000 by 2030.

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[21:33] it's easy to project gold around whatever it is four five today being in double doubled digit numbers in 5 years time.

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[15:29] This fragile environment is likely to rise over the next couple of years. We will have shortages of... You have shortages of food. You then have civil unrest.

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[15:08] I think the American market is in a bubble now, which is a very risky situation and also a highly profitable one, but you are guaranteed that there'll be a crash. It's just a question of when and I think that's about 2 years away.

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[29:58] I think at the moment it's had it had its moment and and it will that moment is not likely to come again for quite some time... quite some time probably 2 years around the same time you think the stock market's going to crash.

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[31:10] So there will be an aftershock in gold and there will be an aftershock in silver.

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[3:52] you're going to get higher interest rates and inflation is coming for sure it's well it's it's about to land

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[8:21] I can't imagine that May is not going to come in a good bit higher. I'm talking about maybe four and a quarter or higher and then and then you probably go to four and a half or maybe four and three/4ers by the time you get to the fall.

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[7:54] I think the next few few months inflation will go higher, at least the way we see it. So, there's the bonds will probably be under more pressure in our opinion.

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[10:31] Oh, I can't see how they cut rates at all. I mean, they would really they would look they would be looked on poorly if they did that.

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[12:41] we really feel like that when people finally pick up on it, it will be like gold and silver were last year. You know, how they, you know, see how they picked up the last four or five months of the year. We think they'll do be similar in energy because they don't own it.

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[13:44] the semiconductors, you know, they're like, you know, that's that's probably the high you'll see for five years in that group. They're way overpriced.

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[21:54] That doesn't mean we don't like it long term. I think if you if you really want to own it for the next two or three years, you'll make plenty of money.

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[24:14] Doesn't look like it... maybe that's 27 or late 26. Uh, I don't know. I think we'll sort of know when we get there. But uh until that time, I think the speculative nature just pushes pushes pushes

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[5:33] sovereign bonds particularly long-term sovereign bonds have stopped being the reserve asset the safe haven that gave you a cushion of return in an environment of weakness that the 6040 portfolio used to provide. You need to look elsewhere for that 40% uh out of out of equities.

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[13:38] I think we'll get persistently higher yields because as we have seen central banks do cut rates and they have cut rates despite for example in the UK you saw uh inflation was rising and still the bank of England reduce rates but you know what happens is that the bank of England cuts rates and in very little time bond yields are back have completely offset that rate cut

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[12:27] the demolition of the of the purchasing power of the currency is is virtually inevitable. So housing is going to become more more challenging. That's why real assets are soaring in value.

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[16:25] Yeah, I think that that is exactly what what I believe is likely to continue to happen. This this enormous discrepancy between what people perceive about the real economy and what they see in markets. No. uh and and and it's and all and and that means higher markets, higher indices

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[17:50] the companies that are melting up the technology giants they're immune to inflation. they're immune to uh the geopolitical concerns or the or the weakness in manufacturing that may happen in some economies in others not etc. They're in a different league and I think that that is likely to continue.

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[18:10] We are likely to see energy melting up and then melting down very very quickly

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[34:25] I think you need to continue to have gold and silver. Uh I think you need to look at copper... when you think about a pullback in gold prices, think is there a change in the monetary landscape? No. Is there a change in the fiscal landscape? No. Is there a change in the behavior of central banks? Are central banks going to purchase more US uh or euro or Japanese or UK debt or are they going to continue to purchase more gold? Therefore, there is an opportunity in a pullback.

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[32:29] The way I see about precious metals silver and gold particularly is that you need to look at them on a longer term perspective... I think you need to continue to have gold and silver.

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[33:37] Would I be long oil at these levels? Not very not not a lot. I would be very very worried about such level of deep backwardation in the forward curve. But that doesn't mean that oil prices are going to go to $50 a barrel. they would only go to 50 if obviously there is a financial crisis as in 2008 and I don't see that happening

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[34:33] This is not very politically correct. I've been saying it for a while. Look at coal. Everybody is is ignoring coal. But China is is using more coal. Germany is using more coal. Look, we're investors. We're not here to to to to take decisions in our portfolios based on what we would like to happen. But what is likely to happen is that there will be more use of coal

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[27:34] all those things that are macro are are absolutely correct... it is better to have an overweight position in US stocks relative to others that are also interesting but don't and also the units of risk that you need to take in order to generate the same returns that you get in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ in the MSCI world or in the or in the stock 600 uh are much higher.

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[12:31] That's why real assets are soaring in value. It's not that they are soaring in value for no reason. is that the the it's discounting the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency and obviously unfortunately that is going to get worse

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[41:54] I don't think that they're going to get resolved... in the case of the Ukraine Russia war, you have Russia saying that they're winning. You have Ukraine saying that they're winning. No, none of them is winning. It's a very very sad situation.

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[0:00] What I would expect to see sometime in the next three to six months is a healthy 20 to 30% pullback, scary, then a counter trend rally, the Fed starts cutting and then if we're in a bear market that counter trend rally will fail and then we'll go to lower lower lows

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[5:55] I think I think we're going to see the growth scare come and be evident by the end of Q2

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[6:03] I think the Fed is not going to raise rates. I think the Fed will be cutting sometime towards the end of this year.

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[4:43] we're still very bullish on long the long bond. We like cash as the best near-term investment dry powder for picking up bargains on the other side of this

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[3:56] Housing prices are finally starting to give up the ghost. We had some bad home price declines in March, February, and March... home price declines really started in the south near the border... we're starting to see national prices come down

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[5:08] we're going to see layoffs start to accelerate throughout the year as companies cut the factors of production because of the margin squeeze. We're already seeing layoffs. We'll see those accelerate.

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[15:48] if you want to look at a uh barometer for liquidity, keep watching Bitcoin. Bitcoin peaked in October of uh last year. Bitcoin is trying to rally, but it looks like it may have stalled out. So, watch Bit- Bitcoin will lead the any equity correction.

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[14:04] I think I think the stock prices themselves are telling you the end is not in semiconductors at least. Whether that causes a general market problem remains to be seen.

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[29:46] I'm of the opinion CapEx is going to be scaled back as they realize they can't plug into anything.

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[6:32] we're going to see at this next round if we get a higher price and I believe we will think we'll see something similar at the $100 level because a lot of silver investors that have held for a long time washed through the $50 level watched it move up and then saw the January move of 70% in one month saw it go basically from the low 70s to 120.

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[9:51] the Elon Musks of the world can see out, you know, two, three, four, five years and they know what the dynamics are. So, they're very happy to buy silver at 80 because they know it's going to be 160 to two years from now or whatever the price may be, it's almost undoubtedly going to be higher.

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[39:01] historically and the seasonality is that we see a kind of a dull summer for the metals and I think that's going to be the case again. I wrote not in the report I sent you but previous one I expected to see a broad trading range for both gold and silver probably through the summer. I still believe that

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[39:01] historically and the seasonality is that we see a kind of a dull summer for the metals and I think that's going to be the case again. I wrote not in the report I sent you but previous one I expected to see a broad trading range for both gold and silver probably through the summer. I still believe that

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[6:31] our focus is we believe the demand for natural gas is going to continue to rise. There's an opportunity for the producers not not only just in in the US but also in Canada as well.

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[24:42] Last 20 years, no growth in electricity demand. Next 20 years, one and a half to 2% growth every year. When you when you add that up um and you compound that, you're talking about 75% increase in electricity demand between now and 2030.

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[26:19] Will it get regulatory approval? Well, that's okay. So, that's that that that question is a is a great one... will it get it? I I don't know. I more than likely but but boy it's going it's it's going to take a lot a lot long it's going to take a long time to get all those various state approvals and and the federal federal approvals as well.

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[29:58] Targo will continue to see increased volumes uh out of the Peran Basin... we'll continue to see steady growth in volumes coming out of uh Target. that for for us as shareholders that that that means, you know, higher dividends um and growth in dividends

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[33:36] not only is that dividend intact, um, you can go back and look at their history, they're actually going to grow this dividend, and they've announced it and it's going to be a pretty hefty dividend increase. I think they do it once a year. I think it's sometime in maybe October, November or so.

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[12:00] I'm not saying we're going to go to 10% bond yields over the next year. I'm just saying in general it the path for interest rates is higher not lower.

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[12:00] so should deglobalization be get the opposite. So we should expect to see... the path for interest rates is higher not lower. And the same with inflation.

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[15:03] The real TINA isn't stocks. The real TINA is QE in my view.

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[15:03] I know this is just setting a base from which it's gonna have to move up that much higher and I think um this is also true of oil

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[17:49] I have a very hard time imagining that Worsh would raise rates as his first um course of action. Um you know I think that they believe that this oil price situation is is going to be transitory... and that um once they wrap up this Iran thing, oil prices are going to come crashing downward... I I think that's probably what he'll do is he'll he'll expect that uh this is just short-lived and uh give it a minute and he'll have an opportunity to cut.

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[17:49] this idea that um you know the inflation will go away and that if Kevin Worsh just sits aside for a little while and gives it a minute, he'll have an opportunity to cut later is probably incorrect.

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[12:00] I expect we'll probably see more of those pressures, especially if wars actually endeavors to shrink the balance sheet.

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[8:05] We don't have but a couple of more weeks, maybe a month that we could keep doing that before the the cumulative impact of the straight being closed is going to lead to real supply constraints in the oil market.

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[14:06] I personally don't think he believes those anymore and that he'll moderate to a more of a neutral stance. And that's where I think we're going to be for the next several months.

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[13:31] I don't think they're going to hike at that meeting.

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[25:09] I do think rates will continue to move higher. I don't think I'm at the point where I'm going to say that we're at imminent risk of breaking something. That could be later, but not right now.

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[26:30] Will there be a recession? Yes. But where will that recession be? It'll be in the rest of the world. Okay, good. It's not in the US.

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[32:44] I don't necessarily think that the dollar will rally from here. It could actually, you know, continue to turn sideways to lower. That's the way I think it's going to go.

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[38:15] investors are saying yes, but in a year or 18 months, will you be able to say that? And the answer we think as investors is no, you can't. The massive disruption is coming.

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[39:03] So since it is a technological disruption, I'm going to argue no, I don't think it's going to be a systemic problem.

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[2:54] I'm talking about obviously you know 30% or more in some of the indexes from here to say that that can happen by Labor Day may sound crazy but that's what a parabolic is is u you know things move pretty fast pretty far.

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[0:45] my guest today says the consensus is wrong. He argues we're entering the final parabolic meltup of a 44year bull market, a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.

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[10:57] that's how I get to 180 right and I'm not so sure that I'm not too conservative still

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[12:24] silver is very volatile so that could go down you know 50 60 70% gold probably less so maybe 30 or 40% but it could go 50 and this goes 75

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[12:30] gold probably less so maybe 30 or 40% but it could go 50

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[14:23] let's say we get 7,000, you get a 50% correction, takes you back down to, you know, 3500. From there, um, you could see 20,000 in gold by the early 2030s.

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[11:19] I have a long-term forecast of $1,000, but that's out early 2030s.

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[28:41] I think we will see oil back down into the 70s based on oil flowing through the straight.

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[32:39] I think you'll see we'll we'll be back at 4% pretty quick on the quickly on the 10-year. And I'm I'm saying we could be at 3% or below by the end of the year.

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[39:52] I expect the the 10 year to drop to zero the 30-year to drop to a quarter to a half percent.

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[39:52] I expect the the 10 year to drop to zero the 30-year to drop to a quarter to a half percent.

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[30:57] I think we move into recession late this year, early next and into a bust uh for much of next year probably.

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[0:52] a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.

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[41:11] I have said many times in the last several years that I expect the Fed balance sheet to grow by at least 20 trillion.

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[2:55] I'm I'm bullish on gold in the short term and the long term.

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[10:19] inflation is after the last two readings of higher rates is going up. You know, is it going to stop at is it going to get to 10%. I don't have any idea, but it's going to get to six, I would say.

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[9:27] the impact long term for copper is very good. It's, you know, the whole electrification story.

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[1:35] I I do agree with you that overall uh we are in a strong commodities bull market and I see that continuing for quite a while.

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[18:06] I think as a world as a world population grows uh demand is going to steadily increase for pod ash and it's it's takes a long time to bring on new supply and it's relatively constrained and it costs a lot of money. So and and right now prices are historically low.

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[20:29] Yeah, I I mean I I think I think so because those that's probably a temporary problem. I I I think that's a a problem that gets fixed. So, when when a company is trading at 52- week lows or multi-year lows because of a of a permanent problem or a problem that's not fixable, then that it's often not a good buying opportunity. But when when it's trading low on a problem that's only temporary, then yes, that's almost always a good buying opportunity because eventually that problem gets fixed

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[31:57] Royal Gold, for example, one of the top three precious metals, royalty, and streaming companies, I think they have a an extremely attractive riskreward... they're going to see a ton of growth in 2026 and also quite a bit of growth over the next five to seven years... getting introduced into the S&P 500 is inevitable. at at this point their market cap has to increase uh a couple billion dollars I think based on uh today's stock price and it probably has to stay there for a couple of quarters before they'll get introduced into the index but I mean as soon as that happens that's going to create a bunch of automatic fund buying and and that's probably an immediate 10 to 15% reate higher

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[37:56] they're probably going to be improving their jurisdictional profile because I I think they're going to sell their Nicaragua hub and spoke assets. Um, that that's something dragging down the valuation. I I think they're probably going to sell their Los Felos development project... they can be a 1 million ounce producer or more just from their Canadian and US assets.

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[6:11] We spoke last time about the possibility of the yields going to 5% or higher. U, you asked me, do I have more conviction in that view now? Yes, I certainly do.

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[6:49] the leadership, as you know, many of your guests have spoken about has become very narrow. Um, it's been all tech all the time since the end of March. I think that's to me that's unsustainable. It looks like a tremendous blowoff.

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[7:40] Consumer stocks making multi-year relative lows, Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald, Lululemon, just go down the list... I think the consumer stocks have been underperforming. I think they continue to underperform whether we technically get a definition to get a defined um uh recession or not.

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[12:32] I think the gold miners are outstanding right now. They're out of favor. So, the talking heads aren't talking about them, but I think this is a great time to be in the gold miners. So, gold miners, energy, regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil.

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[19:08] god forbid the price of gold goes up which I for expect it will these stocks could double triple without any problem at all... I think I think gold and gold miners go higher.

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[11:25] The yen has continued to weaken. Yeah, it's bounced a little bit the last couple weeks, but in the bigger scheme of things, the yen has been much weaker than virtually anyone anticipated. There's a simple reason for that. Interest rates aren't high enough.

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[21:30] I think this continues to be perhaps the biggest misallocation of uh capital in the history of the world. Right now, the market doesn't care about it broadly speaking... the MAG 7's done well the last few weeks, but prior to that, it did poorly for 5 6 months. It made up that underperformance in a relatively short period of time. And I think we're soon going back to that.

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[23:27] I believe the earnings of Nvidia are in a bubble. People say, 'Well, the PE is not high.' Yeah, I know the PE is not high, but look at where the margins are relative to the past... the problem with Nvidia is not what are they making last quarter, this quarter, it's where it's how sustainable are these earnings and these margins, what they'll be making three or four years from now.

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[30:44] Fresh which I think we talked about previously which Tom Chains nailed at our last conference. Stock went from 80 to 49. I think it's going it's going to 10.

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[37:55] active managers based on the last day at ISaw are killing it now. You know, I think the easiest way to outperform the market... it was so hard to outpour the market for a number of years cuz if you didn't know Mag 7, you were dead.

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[27:40] you're seeing, you know, as some have pointed out, um, the whole kamay thing, it started out with gold. That's moved to energy, food, depending what you're looking at, starting to really pick up like meat prices... it's starting to permeate. And then you look in the sector in the in the service sector inflation is kind of sticky.

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[12:42] regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil. Drill, baby, drill. And, you know, per growth in the Perian has plateaued... I think the service companies look terrific. Uh we've been in the OIH. Um I think land drillers in particular in particular look look very good right now.

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