[2:50] It is pointing to potentially 6 and 1 half yield as the first level all the way up to 8% which uh will wreak havoc, right, and create a financial crisis, a global financial crisis most likely.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:43] I believe we are going to see the dollar push higher. And you and I talked about this a long time ago. I said as the dollar continues to mature, I see it going back up to a $120, way, way up here to these crazy heights

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:34] there's an easy 3, four, 5% move to the upside based on the short-term pattern for equities that by the end of this week, we could actually be up there. This is a high momentum pattern, and we've got panic selling today, meaning tomorrow, we should probably see the market rebound and start to run up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:44] I have the downside move for for gold is about 3,100 uh an ounce if this pattern is to play out. And I I think that's I think that's going to be an amazing opportunity whether you like metals or not being able to pick it up at a discount

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:10] it's got about a 13% move up to 94,500 and if you notice this this level let's just zoom in a little bit more it's hit it's 6 it's 618 level and the way it usually works is if you've gone up and you hit the 618 and it pulls back and pauses you almost always go up to the 100% measured move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:51] we're running at a pace of 35% growth for 2026. Really incredible. That's going to fall by more than half as we get into 27. growth should fall to about 15% is what current consensus is.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:40] Look at this quarter for 3Q. You have semiconductors that are going to grow earnings by 130% is the consensus expectation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:32] Semiconductor earnings are going to grow over 100% this year. Appreciate that the semiconductor margin will expand from 30% to 46% 16 percentage points of margin expansion.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:16] the downtrend in yields that persisted from for 40 years from 1982 to 2022 is over. It is dead. It is over... we are no longer in a world where yields are steadily on the decline... these distinct uptrends remain and it just suggests that that the this world of a higher cost of capital is going to persist.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:13] Short-term the yields are overbought and you can see that in the 10 year, the 30-year, 2-year even. And so we wouldn't be surprised if you saw some consolidation in yields.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:15] we started the year with hyperscalers expecting to grow capex by under 30% and now that number is close to 100% growth for capex for 2026.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:12] anytime you add capacity into any kind of relatively commoditized business, you typically do see downward pressure on prices, which results in lower gross margins, which results in lower operating margins... if you see demand slow even slightly for semiconductors, for memory names, you could actually see a lot of deleveraging uh instead of operating leverage, operating delever.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:53] the stocks are going to peak before the fundamentals and there's going to be a period of cognitive dissonance where the fundamentals actually keep looking better and better on the surface. Now there you know will likely be cracks under the surface but that the stocks will be will be peaking before that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:26] They're going to have to issue even more debt in 2027. Free cash flow numbers are going to go uh even deeper negative.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:02] to start October some of that is snapping back we're starting to see the everything else start to have a bit of a snapback. A lot of those areas got slightly oversold. Seasonality has now turned from being a headwind in September to now a tailwind in October. So, it's possible that at least over the course as we move through this earning season, we could see some of the breadth return to this market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:16] we we looked and said okay over the next 3 years as this asset comes online on an EV performing barrel basis, we probably could make something like a mid- teens return. I think something like 15% compounded over the next 3 years to get to where Black Rod's fully producing these 30,000 barrels.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:09] They are going to do 30,000 barrels with Black Rod first and another 10,000 add-on. They will then rinse and repeat and do another 30,000 barrel project of Black Rod and add another 10,000 barrels. Okay? So they have an 80,000 barrel project in say I don't know 7 years or something like that... They're going to be another Meg.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:07] they're going to go out and produce what looks like low teens and maybe if they run the business more efficiently over time, maybe back to 15% return on equity. Now, if you can run low teens... things like this don't end up trading below book, particularly when you're buying back stock.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:17] At some point in the next 10 years there's going to be a bank that wants to compete with the American banks globally both on a commercial consumer and commercial business but also like a capital markets business... Expect Santandere does something. Expect credit agricult.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:15] I think this is a case where it's a very high return business... for a business that produce over 50% returns on capital, I don't mind paying that multiple at all. Now, to your point, it's 40% cheaper than it used to be.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:10] if we have a nasty bare market cuz the hyperscaling capex game ends. Um, are they going to buy 10 years? They historically do when they get scared. Is that going to help the mortgage market? Yeah. we could actually see a pickup in the US economy while we have a pretty nasty risk asset market comparatively.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:30] Amber, you're telling me we're going to top out these oil stocks. While it's 3% of global indices and they're stomping many investments out there, no one cares, the buy side uh still very much doesn't own it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:00] I I think this won't be longived. Um, you know, we've said pretty publicly that we think, you know, low teens is a more of a normal spread on diffs. Um, but again, this is kind of like a near-term blowout.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:41] the Commerce Bank deal closing with Unicredit might be one of the most kind of like pivotal moments in the history of the ECB because we're going to see a tsunami of deals follow this.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:37] we could be in like the next 6 to 12 months in the turn of the rental cycle for multifamily.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:20] I could see us heading to about 8,000. But the key factors here are is that we saw the PCE data, which is inflation data. It came in a little bit better than expected... And I think that's where we're probably headed by year end. I would even wonder if we could get there by the midterms.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:07] I still think $50 on silver is likely our downside move here, maybe even piercing 50.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:02] I'm actually in the camp that we may have a little bit more upside here, but I'm looking for a bigger pullback to maybe as low as 67,000 where I would be a a big buyer at that point.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:11] prices have come down sharply because rates are higher. And I think that will continue in major centers in a lot of areas.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:23] I think that prices have more downside work to do so that they can recoup with the ability of households to buy and service their a home.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:33] if you're a homeowner in US and Canada um get used to seeing your home value likely decrease over the next couple years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] the fact that rates have come back up means that we're likely to see some more disinflationary pressure, deflation in some things, disinflation in others, and ultimately that will be helpful.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:02] on the equity side, dividend yields should be coming up significantly in this environment.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:07:20] Overall outlook: material equity correction ahead, bonds as a safer ride

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:14] I think by the spring you're going to see even more listings. And we've seen a lot of D-listings right recently where people are taking properties off the market, but that doesn't mean that they're happy to hold them.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:03] these shelter components make up 30 a third to 40% of the CPI depending on whether it's Canada or the US and whether you include utilities but these things coming down will ultimately be disinflationary and that's a very positive thing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:49] we've already seen mortgage defaults double from the O2 low. Now they were at an all-time historic low in O2 because rates money was free so no one had to you know default. They could get more credit all the time. But now that's quite different and we are finally seeing homeowners default.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:14] historically speaking, from October the 1st through December 31st, in a year where the market is up 10% at least through the middle of the year and in years where the first quarter was a negative return and the pos and the second quarter was more than a 10% rate of return, both both of those have been put to have been met. The fourth quarter tends to yield about a 6.6% average rate of return in a midterm election year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:56] your confidence is highest in predicting a strong end of the year in the red line here, which is the equal weighted uh S&P. And I would guess I would say your default expectation is the yellow line should also do okay. Um but but probably m maybe not as strong as the red line. So you're you're shifting more your portfolio from growth to value to try to ride that that sector rotation. Correct. That's that's exactly right.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:35] we get anything that pulls in inflationary pressures back, a drop in oil prices, that should pull yields back, that should all feed into those more interest rate sensitive sectors and at least give you a decent trade. Not necessarily a long-term hold, but at least for now, kind of a decent trade setup.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:53] RAA I still believe believes that bond yields are much more likely to trend downward over the next couple years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:55] in any combination of government. The returns for the S&P over the next 12 months have been positive. Right now, it's shaping up that Democrats will take the House and the Senate, and you'll have a Republican president, which is the lowest expected rate of return out of all the possible combinations.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:16] expected real returns on stocks is going to be somewhere between -2 and 2% over the next decade, right? So I can buy a 10-year Treasury at 5.3 and nearly double my rate of return on stocks for the next decade. That's just what valuations tell you.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:32] I just look out say say to myself 5 years from now is gold going to be higher um well there's no way that the US is going to be able to cut down their deficits I mean Elon Musk tried but it's clear like you have to go after entitlements and which president is going to go after entitlements? It's so deeply unpopular.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:57] something like copper where um we know the US has to invest so much into the grid. Um you know the world wants to move towards electrification. We know they're not building any any more new mines. And while in the short term you're going to see some noise and probably some sensitivity to the economic cycle um 5 years from now you know that market is only going to tighten more.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:57] I worry about the situation where we end up in this overtightening scenario. Um because as I mentioned the broader economy is sort of lukewarm right now and is really only the AI economy that is running red-hot... we're going to run into this situation where an overtightening um causes the the broader lukewarm economy to actually slow. And then if we see any hiccup on the AI side, well, the economy is going to be in a pretty bad place. And I could see a situation where we get that growth scare.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:59] I have a real hard time owning bonds for the long term.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:20] there was a recent Morgan Stanley report that said uh the shortfall for power in the US is um is expected to be 57 gawatts through 2028. And again I think it's a situation where it's like okay... the US is short 10 New York cities of power through 2028. And it's like okay where where is this going to come from?... you have some of these power producers that have come off their highs... you don't necessarily need to see that parabolic move for them to be attractively valued at these levels.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:49] we're also looking at other pockets of value um like senior's homes. So, we talk um obviously I'm sure you've had guests come on talk about the silver tsunami. uh we're getting to an area or um a demographic cliff where we're going to see u more and more boomers age and get to an age where they might be uh have to move into uh care... I still think some of these things can can work.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:27] I believe we are making a major bottom in in the bond market here. major top in rates. Uh I focus on 10 year. Third year's gone obviously broken out and gone above uh levels and and people are projecting higher. I'm not so worried about the 30-year. What really matters what what loans get priced off of, mortgages get priced off of is the 10-year. We keep bumping up against the kind of 530 535 536 level.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:43] I think there's a pretty good chance we're heading um back down and could actually be in the 60s. um before the end of this year and lower from there.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:51] I think inflation has peaked. Again, oil will be a part of that story if I'm wrong and oil spikes the other way. Uh inflation can eat up some more. But really, the you know, we've seen in the recent inflation prints that there is some beginnings of rolling over in inflation... I would argue that inflation is basically going to surprise people on the downside going forward.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:34] My my current S&P target is 10,000. So, I'm not sure where we were last time we spoke, but I'm at 10,000 on the S&P. Um 36,000 on NASDAQ, 70,000 on the Dow, and 4,000 on the Russell. So, if you do the numbers on those, you know, they're basically between 30 and probably the Russell's over 40% now from here. Um, so those are big still big moves up. I think they'll be in a steep rally. So they can happen in the matter of just a few months or it might, you know, might take longer than that. I'm not trying to predict a specific end, but I think we're within 3 to 6 months of a top in the stock market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:08] So, if I'm right on 10,000 on the S&P, I wouldn't be surprised to see that down as much as 80%. Uh, which would take you to 2,000 uh in a bare market that follows this. So, I don't have any precise timing that says, okay, it starts right after the beginning of the year or anything like that. You got to top out first. But from wherever that top is, I believe we're looking at the biggest bare market we've had post 20 post 1929.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:04] I actually think the economy is very mixed... I don't think we're going to see prints in GDP that are going to be concerning. I think if anything, they're going to come in light. Um, and I think we are ultimately in 2027 moving towards a recession and maybe worse than that. I I'm calling for a global bust.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:56] you've got a runup before the global bust, you know, the next three to six months that could take gold to 7. My target is 7,000. Um my target on silver is 200. So you've got that in the near term that I think we're bottoming and we'll run up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:02] My target is 7,000. Um my target on silver is 200. So you've got that in the near term that I think we're bottoming and we'll run up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:34] Then if a global bust if this thing is kind of plays out in this time frame it may get stretched but um if the global bust follows that um I think you'll see very sharp corrections in both gold and silver. Uh gold obviously doesn't isn't as volatile as silver. um you know you might get a 50% backup in gold and more like a 75% backup in silver

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:53] um you know you might get a 50% backup in gold and more like a 75% backup in silver or it might be less but but something you know 40 to 50 on gold and probably 60 to 75% on silver. Um so if silver goes to 200 you may indeed get your $50 from up there not from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:42] I think you're you're looking at gold going to maybe 20,000 um in the early 2030s. So, if you if you go back to say 3500 or 4,000 um from there, you could go uh in the next cycle to 20,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:59] Silver, let's say it backs up to $50, can go to $1,000 next cycle. So, you know, I'd say that's probably 20, 32 or three when you get there.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[41:13] As much as I think oil can go down into the 30s during the global bust. So, you know, get down into the 60s here and then when bust hits, maybe be down into the 30s. From there, I think oil can go, which would be, you know, 2028 and beyond. I think oil can go to $500 a barrel. So, you'll go from, you know, $30 or $40 a barrel to $500 a barrel probably between 2028 and 2034.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:25] next year by the end of next year you could be looking at deflation. That could be our concern.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:02] that's where you create the hyperinflationary environment that shuts down the printing press... and I argue that next time around this time we have deflation next time around because of the response to that deflationary bust we're going to have hyperinflation by the time we get to the early 2030s so that such that you could have 25% inflation in this country maybe worse elsewhere

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:41] My longer term studies actually believe that we could in fact see uh the market bottom at this point and if it does I am looking for prices by let's say the first or second quarter of next year to move and maybe even go to a new high that's what this particular model I've put up on the screen is

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:47] A break below that level could signal much lower prices because then the floor is kind of taken out underneath where investors and traders have been looking at as a level of solid support. In other words, a point in which they'll buy the dip. A break below that could change market sentiment... I personally don't see that happening.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:44] there is almost a certainty right now, according to the Fed Watch tool, that we'll get at least one rate hike by December. And the real possibility that we might even see two. We're not expecting anything in September, but October we might see one.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:34] I think it's going to occur after the somewhere in the next two years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:49] we're going to see the midterm elections. And in those elections, it's likely that uh the Democrats will take the House and possibly the Senate.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:04] when there's a lot of debt there is down the line um a devaluation of money. Debt is money and money is debt... when you're holding that as a dead asset, I don't think it's a good asset. in in this confluence right now of circumstances

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:03] those that are going to be favorably affected by AI which are companies that are going to be transitioned um they'll um either increase their sales or they will cut their costs. I don't think I I think that they're not well priced in.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:24] I think the um supercalers and the um other ones um you know which are you'd say the big AI bets um they're overpriced they're expensive

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:48] I think infl leveraged inflation index bonds is an interesting mix because the returns of cash will be relatively low the real yield on u inflation index bonds is now about 3% pretty good real yield and that I think inflation pressures carries it forward.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:19] I'm very concerned about um the midterm elections causing internal conflict. I think there will be a great conflict um you know impeachment that doesn't mean thrown out of office but there's going to be u a great conflict.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:43] So, do I think if I had to guess, would I say we're between eight and 18 months away from and by the way the music stopping has a lot of things like when when was the guy who won the Nobel Prize for defining a bubble?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:43] I think in my mind that puts somewhat of a cap on long end 10 year let's call it 5.5 just because it's a nice round psychological number.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:43] I believe that yields will get to such a point and is it 5.3 is it 5.4 I before thought it was over four five percent where the Fed all of a sudden starts getting involved in the long end and tries to compress yields... I believe that that is becoming more and more of a distinct possibility.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:29] a brief visit under 4,000 here from this level, which isn't a lot. uh would really psychologically set up I think a really strong bottom that gold needs to go into 2027 to go back to challenge the highs that were made earlier this year and move towards uh record highs in 2028.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:55] shortterm little bearish but anything past a few weeks or uh maybe a month or two I think it's it maintain a very bullish stance towards gold.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:04] What changed my mind in the last 3 days, that's when it's changed for our clients and my readers, is that we're now seeing great deterioration underneath that one group that's doing well... when you see weakness and less and less participation, it's usually a good sign minimally of a serious correction coming or a major change of foot.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:19] I just think it's going to it's going to work its way higher. And the issue that we haven't seen yet... the least resistance still to me in interest rates is up, not down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:02] I don't believe there's going to be a rise in October. I think it it it's political suicide to raise rates there for them. I think they'll wait till after the election, but I have no doubt in my mind that December we will have another rise in interest rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:35] the seven may even come before 2027, but but like I said, it was the strongest of the metals.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:40] agricultural commodities as a group should work higher, not lower because of this and other reasons.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:07] I think what I'm feel is going to happen in the election moves into 2027 and then I think then we'll have a dramatic slowdown.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:14] I think there's an opportunity in the Canadian mining and expiration unlike look any other place.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:07] I like Eli Liy because I think that they've won the diet drug wars and there's no evidence that that's going to change anytime soon.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:50] The issue is that the the software loans don't get refinanced till next year and that's when we'll find out what these things are worth. Until then, it's like academic. You could say whatever you want. So, I wouldn't be buying any of these companies, right?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:39] That's a joke. I mean, China sold treasuries. They certainly did. Did the world end? It did not. Not that I noticed. So, you know, people like to manufacture um these calamities cuz they want to be the ones who predicted that the rest the end of the world.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:20] But yeah, I do think the US banks are safe.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:11] my main thesis is that we're probably going to see suppression of yields alongside with some sort of uh weakening of the dollar. And any thematic investment theme that that falls into the category of uh being favorable uh through those lenses in my view look attractive and mining is one of them and gold is one of them.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:03] gold is is front running a lot of those those uh the inevitable, right? the inevitable of of of that um intervention level that we're about to see.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:54] I suspect it's going to be a gradual with some large steps ups uh uh in prices, but I I suspect this is going to be will take time to get there.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] just the overall mining industry uh is about 1% of the overall global market uh equity market back in other eras used to be 10%. So mining used to be much uh more relevant at what it is today as well. Now we're talking asymmetry here. How much can it go lower relative to how much can it go higher? Can it go lower? Sure. How much higher can it go? Well, it's it's multiples from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:27] I think we're about to see, you know, a shift back to metals again here because metals are have been in this choppy environment for a while now and and they've been consolidating after a big move and some metals are down a lot. Uh and and I do think that we're getting to a point that it could be an inflection point for a lot of these things.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:33] I am extremely uh uh optimistic about this region becoming more and more strategic for the rest of the the global economy and um I I think that the politics is is is is another driver um and opens uh the possibilities in in a very significant way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:55] I think it's fairly fairly clear we're most likely going to have another interest rate hike this this year. Another quarter of a percent.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:33] I'm completely confident that we're only in a mid midcycle correction. Uh I I I mean I may be wrong of course but I'm I'm comp that's one thing I'm completely confident about.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] We believe it's going to go minimally to $150 to $200 a pound during the cycle and probably higher. We think this is going to be a very, very long-term secular bull market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:00] It's 10% of the grid in the state. They have to extend it. And I think they will.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:02] I do think that, uh, as I said, to me, the echoes to 1987, I know that it's not a a perfect parallel. nothing ever is. Um, but it really strikes me that uh the stock market is being far too insientent about the rise in interest rates, especially in so far as the whole AI trade is really contingent on endless supply of credit. Um, and you are starting to see some some tightening of credit conditions as you mentioned with the spreads rising in the CDS and um, so I do think that it will be more of a dramatic event.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:20] I believe the Fed I may end up eating these words, but I think it was one and done. Uh I don't anticipate that they're going to continue to raise rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:39] where they're headed because they're going much higher. This is not the end of this move. Uh we're probably closer to the beginning.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:55] we could be looking at 9% mortgage rates maybe by the first quarter of next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:13] the only thing that's going to enable homes to be purchased will be a dramatic decline in prices, maybe 30 to 50% decline in real estate prices nationwide, which would be as big if not bigger than the drop that we had uh you know in 2007 2008

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:27] We're now 6 years into what I think is now a you major uh bare market, a secular bare market that will last at least half as long as the bull market. So maybe 20 years and we're 6 years into it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:31] I don't think the risk of a default is zero. I don't know exactly how high it is, but I think there's a reasonable probability that the government will default. Now, when I say the US Treasury is going to default, it doesn't mean that you get nothing... it's more more likely to be a restructuring where they say, Okay, you get 50 cents on the dollar.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:05] But they're going to keep on going down. We're we're nowhere near the bottom of the bond market. So, the losses are just going to compound.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:53] People should be buying gold... the metals are still reacting or the traders are reacting to rising bond yields as if this is bearish for gold and silver. It's the most bullish thing that could happen to gold and silver because what these rising bond yields show is that bond prices are collapsing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:01] consumers expect 4% inflation. They're going to get something much higher than that. Uh so, you know, the consumers are more accurate than the Fed in their inflation forecast, but they're still, you know, missing it by by quite a bit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:30] Inflation is going to be rising faster than rates. So real rates are going to be falling the entire time that nominal rates are rising.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:36] What the Fed is going to start doing at some point is ramping up its purchase of longerterm treasuries to prevent precisely what I said will happen from happening. Because as rates really go up, Treasury yields, you know, go to 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, right? Somewhere along there, the the government simply cannot afford to service the debt. They and they can't find buyers for it. So the Fed just steps up, unfortunately, as the buyer of only resort and prints up a bunch of money to buy the bonds that nobody else wants

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:53] I expect the dollar to start losing value faster than a lot of other currencies uh because of the enormous debt that we have and because I do expect the dollar to lose its reserve status

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:53] rates are going to go up. Uh they're going to go a lot higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:55] But in a few years we could be spending three or 4 trillion a year on interest on the national debt. So all of that is going to add to the annual budget deficit. So now that you're talking about 5 $6 trillion a year budget deficits, well that means you know the national debt goes from 50 trillion to 60 trillion in 2 years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:25] I think the current uh estimate of how much benefits would have to be reduced, and I'm sure this is optimistic, they probably have to be reduced more, but I think 30% across the board cut in in in uh in benefits, unless they really raise the taxes.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:34] that's why you're going to get the Republicans losing the House and the Senate. Uh because uh people are going to vote their pocketbooks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:33] all this stuff is going to be a lot more expensive if the stuff that you are buying today costs 10% more or 20% more in a year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:21] I guarantee that there's going to be AAA rated CLOS's that are going to default. And then the question is how can Fitch and Moody's possibly say that's safer than the US government?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[50:52] 12-month predictions: AAA CLO defaults and an insurance shakeout

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[40:58] I think that there's going to be a flight to quality all of a sudden if you don't meet the standard nobody's going to get borrowing. A lot of businesses that are fine are all of a sudden not going to have any access to to credit or capital.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:50] we think this is a business that could grow its earnings to $10 a share in the next couple years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:50] by their projections in 2028 is going to be generating something close to 40 plus dollars of free cash flow per share.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:21] I just finished saying a couple days ago, it looks like we've had a short-term measured move on the on the Treasury yield that it's peaking out. It's most likely going to start a probably a multi-week pullback.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:02] from like where it is as if you and I are talking today October 2nd there's about another 3% move based on this bull flag. Now when we step back and look at the big picture we can look at the big bull flag pattern that has been forming and see where those levels are. And so this is where that I think there's some some real potential in the NASDAQ.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:18] So, I like Bitcoin. I think it's going to rally to about 9500 uh like 9 95,000 which is about a 9% move from where it is. That's based on the bull flag Fibonacci extension targets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:24] gold is still pointing to like dramatically lower pricing. Like we're looking at 3,600 potentially all the way down to 3,100. That's what the charts are saying

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:16] I'm looking for oil to be below 70 before the year is out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:33] I think this week, I think we'll probably see 85 before the week is over.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:14] I think we're going to see a good shot at 6% before year-end. You know, we talked in the summer. I said we get 5% by September and I think we have a real good shot to get to 6% because there's A of demand for money and you're you're you're pushing it out and you've got all these deals out there which is going to raise the cost of money and the cost of interest rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:16] I think the rates are going higher, yes. I I do think I could see a 9% mortgage.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:51] I think we've seen the bear market in in gold certainly. I mean, listen, gold dropped 35% from its highs. So, I think we're now going to start to see that move higher again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:26] I think the dollar's got a chance to see 104 105 if not higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:56] I believe the euro currency has a chance to go below par. It's trading at about 112 right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:29] I still think there's a major meltdown coming. But at the end of the day and I think the interest rates may be the the the crucial thing that pushes them over the top if we do get the 6% but right now you have no participation in these markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:10] Certainly, I if we got the 8,000 S&P, it would not surprise me one bit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:05] I wouldn't be surprised if they hiked once, maybe twice more this year before it's all over. We've got three meetings left, so we'll see how it plays out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:33] I do think we're in a bubble. I think AI is in a bubble. I think we're not accounting for all the debt that's out there in AI. I mean, they've got over a over a billion dollars in off off balance sheets. So, there's a lot of stuff going on that I don't think is very good.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:46] I think right now it's stuck in a range between 80 and 90,000. We could get one more burst out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:41] So, I think in the near term, we're basically there. I am expecting a pullback that's going to be at least bringing us back below 5%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:23] my fear is that we don't see 10% inflation, I don't think that's going to happen, even 7%, but do we stay between 3 and 4% for the foreseeable future, which adds up year-over-year to massive price increases over 5 or 10 years?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:45] anything above 7575 on the S&P, I remain bullish. Um in terms of targets, it's very simple how I come up with this target... we're only about 1 and 1/2, 1.37, 1.75% away. So, we could hit that before the midterms very, very easily. In fact, in the next couple weeks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:42] I do think in the next year it will. I think in the near term it's getting a little overbought. Even though there's a bullish pattern, it might need to pull back. But I do think in the next year, yes, you will hit 100,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:54] long-term I I think it's going to 13,000 is my upside target by 202029 to 2031, few years out, yes.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:23] I'm anticipating further downside by the midterms. We should get down to this $78 per barrel level.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:03] I would say that in the next two to four weeks, you're going to have some kind of a panic oh my god moment. And that will probably be a good opportunity to deploy capital.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:52] my intuition tells me that we may go back down to 5%, maybe even breach below 5%. And then go right back up again. And the reason is is because we are in a higher for longer I think inflationary environment

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:00] we think that KKR for example can earn $7 a share by somewhere in the end of this decade okay so call it 28 29 30 okay well what is that worth maybe that's worth a 15 multiple to plus maybe 16. So maybe that's worth a 100.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:24] And when they're out of the way, I think you'll see interest rates falling pretty sharply.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:34] And then when they have to pull the the plunger on money printing in a few weeks time because either the Fed steps in or you know they get beyond the the midterms and therefore they can pull it without people accusing them of fixing the election then you know you'll find that there will be an inflationary rush or a money supply rush and gold will go flip and then probably and then probably down again. But long term it's only going to go one way and that's it's going to grind up. at worst grind sideways and then grind up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:07] And of course they're going to pull the lever and then we're going to get higher inflation and then gold's going to go that way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:13] So, they're going to make incredible sums because there's going to be incredible reflation and they're going to be the ATM of all this new money to build out this existential conflict... no one's going to make an investment bank to take over the job of distributing all that capital in the next two or three years either. So, they're going to make a ton of money and their share price is going to rocket.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:57] And they wake up to the fact there isn't enough copper. Then they wake up to the fact there's not enough explorers exploring and then they wake up to the fact there's not enough drill bits to drill bit. you know, it's it it's a whole cascade and it's just a matter of finding the areas which people are going to wake up to in the next 90 days so you don't have to hang around for two years waiting for the penny to drop.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:04] if we have not reached peak gold, we probably reached peak gold in this cycle. Just hasn't been enough investment over the last decade in exploration and development to meet the demand right now for metal.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:25] in my career, I don't think I've ever seen a better setup for the metal price than right now. I think we're potentially at the start of a strong bull market in the metal price.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:33] I think you'll see higher oil prices and I do think that you'll see these refined product margins fall a lot just because they are at unsustainably high levels.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:33] I think you'll see higher oil prices and I do think that you'll see these refined product margins fall a lot just because they are at unsustainably high levels.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:52] you should see diesel and gasoline inventory levels start to rise partly offset by crude oil inventories falling.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:32] in the last couple of weeks for the first time in god knows how long I can remember I have started to add some exposure in shorter duration um treasuries so two-year notes specifically

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:52] I don't think Kevin Walsh has as many hikes in his armory um as the short-term interest rate markets expect. Um I think there's so so many parts of um the economy that can't support higher higher frontend rates. Um and I think they'll make themselves heard quite soon.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:05] I'd be really surprised phased if what's being priced in interest rates futures markets, you know, another three three or more cuts over the next 12 to 18 months. I'd be very surprised if that plays out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:21] I think that that that that ultimately bond yields will come down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:57] most pockets of the US equity markets feel very expensive for me and feel um you know especially expensive if we if we are looking at a higher interest rates environment right now. Um, if you think at think about the S&P right now, you know, over half of the index by market cap is trading above 10 times sales, price to sales. You know, over any time frame in history, you know, that is a tough starting point from which you can expect decent positive IRRs over a 3, five, 10 year time spectrum.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:53] I think we would need several years of underperformance versus the rest of the world um before a lot of those dollars would leave your shores. um which leads me to believe that there'll be some some some forced rotation within markets away from those 10 times price to sales players you know into the broader index

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:07] my favorite expression within US equities right now is to be long the equal weight the RSP versus the triple Q's right

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:43] I I still have a core allocation to gold. I see gold much higher under most circumstances over over over the balance of of the decade and beyond. Um but I think that tactically um you know it's a case of more sellers than buyers

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:23] ultimately which is why I think that you know the dip in gold is temporary because ultimately I think people will work out that they can turn gold into energy and and and and you know sovereign resilience commodities probably easier than they can sell a treasury.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:23] energy equities look incredibly attractive over the long term to underwrite because you know capex around exploration can be underwritten if there's an effective high 70s early 80s floor around the crude price... I think that that that that weight's going a lot higher, right? And, you know, I don't own a lot of US equities at the moment in in my portfolio, but over half of them are energy stocks or energy related stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:07] I found one, by the way. I I think that there is a ch back there. You know, it's it's it's it's a it's a stock and and I'm talking about Glenor now, not not financial advice. It's a it's a it's my largest personal position, but it's a stop that I think works in a fragmented geopolitical world. It's a fantastic copper story backed up by a seaborn coal story which I think stands stands the test of time

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:54] if I had a gun to my head, I think we're on a path of economic deglobalization right now that's accelerated in the last two years. And my base case for an underwrite is that that is a trend of reshoring and nearshoring which is by the way extremely inflationary um to my mind

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:51] that would be a great excuse to get very bearish on banks um from here and and and might be a major impediment to owning them for the very long hall. But at the same time banks are pretty important to you know governments and sovereigns around the world um who increasingly you know need to fund their deficits. And you know I I think that we'll see a lot of you know regulation designed to protect the deposit franchises of banks over time

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] 2027 is going to be a very should be a very difficult year for the stock market and in the bond market. There's a small chance that 2027 won't be a disaster, but it's very likely that it's going to be a disaster.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:33] bond yields are going up for all the reasons I mentioned and the fact that the Fed is stepping away from being the enabler, the great enabler of this government and its issuance of debt.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:03] Exactly. Yeah. And even though even though we had let's just go back to 2007 when Bernani started uh blinking... I think they we think when banks start closing down and the money markets freeze and the repo mark you know repo rates go to you know double digits even worse it's like I I got to do something. So so basically like the critics you think the Fed will eventually cave you just think the Fed's caving point is far farther out than what people are assuming right now. Exa Exactly.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:20] the collapse in the bond market, the the fracturing of the bond market is going to bring us to sector 2 and sector one... and at some point next year when you're in sector one

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:35] on the other end of this is going to be what I've coined the term hyper stagflation because I don't think you get much real growth at all, but you get a tremendous amount of inflation when they have to monetize trillions and trillions of dollars a year just to keep the just to keep the lights on in the banking system.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:50] I don't think he's going to come with elacrity and start printing trillions of dollars. He's gonna let this thing really bite first.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:27] I'm not even too keen on my gold position right now... I am surprised that it hasn't gotten woped because real interest rates have spiked violently.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:52] everybody wants one thing they want liquidity and that includes gold and gold stocks which are a leveraged play on the precious metal are really bad investment so again I'm a gold bug I love gold

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:04] the Pavlovian response into the bond market is going to be muted at best... I do not think the next time we have a recession I know there'll be a Pavlovian response to go into the long end of the yield curve once the recession becomes manifest but I don't think it lasts very long.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:14] It's going to go from two trillion 1.2 in interest payments to six trillion. And it happens automatically.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:02] So for gold, for us it's 3,900 has to hold. If it doesn't hold, we'd bring in a test of probably 3,600. Um but you know we're not going to retest 3,300 in our view. That was sort of like that major plateau that was built months ago.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:12] There's no possible way that would happen without a 20 to 30% correction in the NASDAQ and the S&P next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:12] There's no possible way that would happen without a 20 to 30% correction in the NASDAQ and the S&P next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:12] We sold some silver as I told you on the last time, you know, over a hundred bucks. We sold maybe 15 20% of our position in the first two months of this year. And we're going to buy that back at the right price. But the right price to me is like 50 to 55. I want to see if 55 holds here again. We're at 60 and a half 61 as we record this.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:10] I think that stock is gone by this time next year. I don't I don't think it it survives. I mean, it's at 18 cents. They have 3.2 million ounces of gold. They're on their way to 3 and a half to 4 million ounces. And they have senior leadership who, you know, have a great relationship with Agnigo. So, like to me at 18 cents, what what if they get taken out at 35 and it's a double from here?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] We went from March 1st to August 1st and lost 40% on GDX in the HUI. That's shocking, right? That's like double uh double correction. So seeing the bounce in August was very bullish for me because it it did indicate that we're in a bull market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:00] As of June 30th, we had 17% of our money in just tungsten related equities. Um, we had probably a third of our portfolio in critical minerals then and that's gone up as of September 30. We haven't released those numbers yet, but I will tell you that tungsten, you know, is has got to be close to 23 to 25% now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:02] So he started a company called Kazr that owns 70% of Cass Resources. CAS Resources to me is like one of the biggest tungsten deposits globally. And this company KZR owns 70% of it. So you don't have to own 100% of something to make a lot of money. That has a 50-year mine life. I mean this could this could produce 12 to 15% of the world's tungsten. The catch is it's not producing until Q1 of 2030.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:53] These guys are going into production next year. I had a three-hour dinner with them. There's no possible way I see that they wouldn't go into production next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:54] let's say they get their permit Jan one they're producing in Q1 of 2028. I mean and the stocks at 12 cents US.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:35] Western Star is another one that I really like right near them. Um that one I gave your listeners last time. And that what is WSR if in the states and WSR in Canada. I just spent time with Blake at Beaver Creek as well. This guy has three projects in Nevada and New Mexico. Um they're putting out some some good results. Like I think they're going to put out a lot more good results. Um it's it's just a process. You know, you have to wait for these things. They're early stage and you have to be patient as an investor and try to hold these for 1 to three years. and I think you're going to make a lot of money.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:56] FSTTF in the states and FTEL, FTEL in Canada is first. They have a toybased technology for drones and they're making their first drone as we speak. It's not made yet, but I think it will be by this month. Um, and I think they're going to shock people with what this thing can do because I don't know if you saw the news a few days ago on Dragonfly.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:56] I think that's happening in Colombia right now. We we have a new election there. I think about 2 three months ago. This guy's very promining. So we're we're loading up on Colombia stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] This is going to be a crash that is going to mirror 1929. The markets are way overvalued as you point out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:30] we believe a crash is on the new near horizon and there's going to be a.com bust... there's going to be a.com bust. China's going to lead the world in it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:06] I wouldn't sell it all. I'd buy. I'd buy... And again, I even bought it when it hit like 5,300. I thought it would keep going up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:17] So, we're bullish on both. And and as the the again, the high-tech world keeps advancing, more and more silver is going to be used.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:36] Declining economic growth and rising inflation. And the higher inflation goes, the higher gold prices should go.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:34] Gold to me again, we are on also the verge of the death of the dollar. You look at how the world is coming out against the United States.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:57] Yeah, I do think we're this is a new rate height cycle and I and I think it's because when you listen to Worsh um he echoed something that Bill Dudley, former head of the New York Fed, wrote last week, which is um the rationale for tightening has has rarely been so clear-cut as it is today.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:16] the tenure historically um during a rate height cycle rises at least 100 basis points. That's on average. you know, 50 basis points at the low end and 200 plus basis points at the high end through historical rate cycle. So that tells you this this cycle started with the Fed the 10-year rate at 5%. So on average it would it would probably go to six, but I think you could argue that you know it could go to six and a half, seven

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:12] if the Fed is is going to have to, you know, do what what uh what I think they're going to have to do, then value stocks are going to to take over. And that's exactly what happened in 2000 was, you know, when the.com bubble started to burst and the the the the major growth stocks rolled over, value stocks did phenomenally well as a part of a rotation

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:33] I I'm a huge commodities bull. I think we're in the midst of a major commodity super cycle. I don't think we're anywhere near the end of that yet because these super cycles are driven by the capital cycle. So when you start to see companies say we're going to invest massively in bringing on new supplies of oil and gas and copper and these types of things, that will be the beginning of the end. But we haven't even gotten to that point yet

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:08] Oil is actually really un at $100 a barrel, oil, you could argue, is still undervalued. The real price of oil, inflation adjusted price of oil, right? Um, you know, is still about average over the past 40 years or something. We're still at average. So, we really haven't even seen an oil price spike in terms of real the real oil price hitting a level that's problematic. And you don't get there until you get well over $120, $130, $40, $50 a barrel. I still think that risk is on the table.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:20] I think that's why we're seeing a pretty persistent bid for gold. Um is you know people saying what else can I own? You know if I if I don't want to own treasuries, I don't want to own corporate bonds. your really only other choice outside of these kind of financial assets risk, you know, is uh is is real assets is is trying to focus on commodities, precious metals, these types of things.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:48] it wouldn't be surprising to see something like energy go from 3% to 10% of the S&P 500 over time and allocations to gold you know go from 012% and and you know, the average institutional portfolio to 5%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:03] I think they'll probably um have to, you know, raise rates again um in order to keep that equilibrium between um this interbank loan rate and the rate of price inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:10] Yes, I think we are. Um, you know, we're looking to merge onto that highway of hyperinflation and uh with the, you know, and a lot of that relates back to the the power of compound interest. with a large debt. That's symptomatic of all hyperinflations is large debt.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:27] I kind of expect that to continue uh given the conflict in the Persian Gulf area that's exasperating um a uh a uh upturn in oil and energy prices uh that was already starting to form and it's made that much worse. And of course, it's also disrupted the fertilizer and chemical industries greatly, which is going to diminish world food production uh over the next at least several crop cycles. And so, you know, there's not going to be any letup in fuel, energy, and food uh production.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[48:49] if you look at the expected return on the S&P 500 over the next 10 years it's re it's you know it's in it's mathematical uh proposition. This is not something I made up or anybody makes up. The expected return on the S&P 500 is close to zero over the next 10 years because the last 10 years the return has been much much higher than the long run historical average.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[49:23] The opposite is true of commodities, precious metals, oil and energy related stocks. their returns um have been poor um over the last 10 or 20 years relative to stocks as a whole or even their own uh long long uh returns. And um and so you know mathematically speaking all of those things should do better but the policies that we've been discussing with return with respect to government uh spending uh borrowing and printing are going to help those areas of the marketplace.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[50:49] Real assets should outperform um financial assets. and that techreated assets that have been doing so well those are you know widely considered to be cyclical industries again I'm not making anything up here this is standard uh analysis and the standard analysis says that uh tech and that sort of thing is cyclical they go up and down with Fed policy and the business cycle.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:33] So we do think M&A will continue. Uh the latest data from CoStar that we've seen was there's like 300 mill $350 billion of dry powder sitting with the Blackstones and Brookfields and private equity funds fully funded sitting in cash. They got to put that money to work to buy real estate properties or they're going to have to give it back to their investors and they don't want to do that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:08] we think big picture, including BSR, but big picture, the US apartment picture probably looks much better in 2027 as some of that new supply gets rented up because the demand is there and we think you return to much more positive rent growth in 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:33] we think it's trading at a 23% discount um unlike Canada where apartments have suffered from a demand problem uh the the issue in the US has been a supply issue demand is strong and we think we've seen peak supply. So those with a more... For those with a medium-term view, I think BSR is a good choice.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:32] certainly you know we're not in the business of forecasting interest rates. If you force me to guess I think 5% you know rates are going to be higher for longer and I think the market is prepared for that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:13:07] We expect the spot price to breach $200 a pound during this cycle. We think the setup is significantly better than the previous cycle.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:38:36] We believe the uranium price in the term and the spot market is going to be meaningfully higher by the end of the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:36:06] Oh yeah, there's huge value proposition right here. Um the uranium miners are trading terribly. Absolutely terribly... we see huge value uh value propositions across uranium mining space across the nuclear equities as well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:39:03] I believe in the next 12 to 24 months we're going to see a moment where a utility picks up the phone and calls Kamico or calls Kazadrom and says we need 1 or 2 million pounds for delivery starting in 2031 and they're going to say I'm sorry we don't have that for you and that is going to be a significant significant driver of higher prices

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:38:43] next year is going to be there's going to be some rubber hitting the road next year in the physical market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:07:35] could we enter an environment in the next, you know, 18 to 36 months where we see significantly more volumes being done with no ceilings with the primary focus being I need this uranium at any price. Will that moment come to pass? I believe that it will

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:38:06] these SMR equities, some of the picks and shovels like BWX Technologies, um, these these are good companies and and they don't deserve to be trading at these prices... these are overshooting to the downside now. So we see a strong value proposition.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:16] I really did forecast and have been for a long time that bit the Clarity Act is irrelevant to Bitcoin. There was one tiny little thing in it that was actually good for Bitcoin... But that even got struck from the draft that they were voting on. So there was literally nothing in it for Bitcoin and the market kind of knew that

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:41] I don't think there's any logic or evidence to support that just because digital payments will accelerate and are accelerating dramatically uh with a with aentic AI that that means something meaningful in the near term for Bitcoin. I don't think that's the case

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:15] I do think that there's a very good chance we do end up at on a Bitcoin standard as the primary store of value for the West sometime this century. I have I have that kind of pegged for like 2070 to 2090 for kind of full install when it surpasses everything else and is just kind of obvious.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:43] Usually and statistically the the stock markets have a rather difficult time until this election because it creates a lot of uncertainty. We're seeing the bond prices rising. We've seen the yields rising and um precious metals have sold off to the beginning of this week. Uh my thinking is still that probably after the midterm elections things will calm down a little bit and we might get a good end of the year rally in the stock market maybe

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:51] I think maybe it takes another year until this correction is is done. Um so people need to be patient.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:33] starting mid December into the first quarter, it's the best time for the mining stocks. you need to be positioned by the end of the year basically or let's say mid December latest um to catch that typically very strong leg up that you will see in the miners.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:54] The big producers are looking very good. I mean many of them breaking out to new highs. It's a clear trend up. Uh I I for me it's a stronghold at least. I'm not sure if I would add to positions here at these levels. Probably not. But um anybody who's invested should just let uh their winnings run. You know, that's uh it's it's an uptrend. I don't see how they going to turn this around anytime soon. Um so yeah, I think uh there's more upside for the oil stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:30] I don't think that this trend is over anytime soon uh because we had 40 42 years of uh falling yields and now we are in the six years of rising yields. So even if it would be just a retracement on that 40 year uh downtrend uh uh this could easily take uh 10 years maybe 12 to 15 years even. So, I think we're still right in there, and I think we're going to see double digit uh yields at some point down the road.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:46] I don't think gold and silver are going to make a lower low than they did in in June. U so that's a statement and it says something to me that money is starting to move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:46] I don't think gold and silver are going to make a lower low than they did in in June. U so that's a statement and it says something to me that money is starting to move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:32] You've now broken out above that. You did it in August. You broke out above that massive range, meaning by miners less than gold. Miners are going to beat gold now and likely they're going to return to some normality of prior valuation to an ounce of gold.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:09] And so the pullback this year is far as I'm concerned is exhausted uh you better not see if you're a bear and there so many people are bearish or totally skeptical especially about silver... I think what's about to occur is far more meteoric and vertical than what we anybody expects.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:02] I think that's where we are now. And our technical work argues we're that last low in the summer is probably the low. This is going to be probably a higher low than that one.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:09] But once that drop was over, silver went from like uh 11 12 bucks to 50 again. You old high 50 back in 1980. So in 2011 it reached 50 again. It's like a quintupling. Okay. Whereas gold tripled... I think that's where we are now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:21] If we went eightfold we merely matched what they' done before price before. Gold would be between 8 and 9,000. Yeah. Now I don't think it's going to stop there because we have a debt crisis.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:12] Five bucks to 50 is what? Tfold. Okay. What's tfold? That's $500 silver just to match the dimension of the range. Uh so now I'm not predicting 500. Frankly, I don't think it'll stop it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:43] the financial sector something's going on there guys and technically we're in a position on so many of the major banks right now talking of momentum now long-term momentum that if you're trading where you are right now with a day left in the quarter and you next quarter you're stay at these same price levels. You do not want to close a month around where you are right now. You better get out of here. And if you don't, you're going to blow momentum structure that says, 'I'm in a vacuum to the downside.'

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:37] inflation will I expect to continue and maybe get worse in 2027. So, you're always slightly behind the curve.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:24] At the October meeting, they're going to stamp pat. They're not going to raise rates. They got that behind them at the September meeting.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:14] So I think we've put in peaks this year in gold and silver that might last years and if history's a guide, decades.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:20] I fully expect when you see diesel up 160% on a one-year basis, by this time next year, it could easily be down 40%. Easily. That's just a normal cycle from that high.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:25] I fully think it is overdoing it. Just the fact right now, Maggie, we are priced there 70% chance that um on October 28th that the chairman of the Federal Reserve who was hired by Mr. Trump to cut rates that they might hike rates a week before the u midterms is a shocker. I think I think what's going to happen is the the next big moves from the Fed will be a series of cuts

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:38] you you said, "Is inflation still worrying me?" And the answer to that is yes, it still is worrying me. And if you look at the consumer price index, it's 3.4% 4% year-over-year, but the sixmonth annualized rates 5.1%. So it it's the the underlying trend is one of acceleration in the CPI.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[42:16] I I think it's the the secular bull is intact and and it'll continue to go up and and my I haven't changed my mind. I think it's going to end up at the at the top of the market will be like $6,000 $7,000 an ounce.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:36] the money supply is accelerating. Its rate of growth is accelerating. And I do like to look at the broader measures like Devisia. The the latest Devisia just came out two days ago and it's M4 Devisia is growing at 7.4%. Uh a year ago was growing at 5.6% per year. So it's definitely accelerating

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I both long bonds and short stocks is because I do expect higher interest rates for longer, a hiking cycle to start at least cooling some of the expectations. And with that, you'd see those positions work out pretty quickly.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:51] I don't think so. I don't think we're in a period where we're going to see policy makers be able and willing to offset this spike in interest rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[43:42] betting that inflation is going to be brought back to target. Uh, and uh, is not has not been a good bet.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:39] I think they've never been this vulnerable right now to to a bit. And I think this resource is really attractive um to anyone looking at more than the next 12 18 months

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:02] our call is this resource is mispriced it's really mispriced relative to what's going on and I think there's multiple ways to win on that over time

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:35] you got it same stuff different jurisdiction and it kind of ties to these are the big boys doing multi-year deals on a contracted brave basis with the utilities with the power guys with the Amazons the Metas the Nvidias like these are the guys that are investment grade that are going to be positioning um for a multi-year thematic there

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:07] I've never felt like there's a higher probability for something to happen today given that whole multiple things happening across the cash and the debt and the pools of capital and the Strath Konas and all these players that are kind of in our backyard and they're cashed up and they're in good spots and the pipelines are opening up

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:44] I look at their ass and I want to own it for the next 5 10 years just myself in the world of resource scarcity because they have some of the best plays but that longevity of the resource is really mispriced. The market and analysts are focused on well this trades at seven times and the peer group trades at six. I think that's really wrong because of that multi-year thematic of they have 50 to 70 years of resource versus other guys have 10 to 20. So I think that that ARB will get closed over time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:56] Go pull a relative performance of SLB versus the S&P. The party hasn't started. And that's where if we are at the start of the spending cycle and you start thinking through how an energy manager maneuvers through that, you start up cap and then you start moving to other subsectors and other areas like intermediates over the cycle. So services could have their day in the sun where they really benefit you um on a multi-year basis as you kind of ride that wave up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:29] I think all of that in a mixer is going to be a tailwind for service from this juncture. I think for energy in general, yes, energy is up, but on a relative basis, how is it done? And we haven't had our day in the sun yet.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:41] as we go into 2027 budgets versus 2026, I think we're biased to just say the budgets are going to be up to some degree.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:17] we're kind of six years into a 15ear cycle. And what I would say to you is if I just tried to take a step back and I'm an energy guy looking at the major themes on the year, there's massive geopolitical risk going on... And the other major theme that I see lasting quarters and years is energy demand tied to AI and technology... energy is 3.8% of the S&P 500 as a waiting. So it's still quite low and we haven't had our multi-year thematic day in the sun.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:49] I think we're near the start of that optimism wave like not the start like we are in the start of the optimism wave.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:49] Canada's been outperforming the US for four or five years, Canadian energy equities relative to the US. And so people have continued to be negative Canada, but I've been on the road going the stocks are actually doing okay. And in fact, the stocks are actually outperforming.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:40] We are teeing up for more M&A. It's coming. And the divergence of performance is setting that up... I think M&A as a theme is going to be very thematic as we play out the next 1 2 3 4 5 months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:31] The natural gas resource for the big boys is massively priced in the hole relative to what's going on... So we are putting chips in big boy natural gas resource. That's where the super majors are going to go. That's where the big contracts are.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:32] Oh my god. I think they've never been this vulnerable right now. Two of them... He explains why he thinks North American natural gas resources are mispriced, why Tourmaline could be vulnerable to a bid

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:44] The Tamarack's going to be through $10 billion here. So again, when you think about there was 30 companies in Canada over $2 billion at the end of the last cycle. Today there's under 15 and you start thinking about flow of funds that haven't got your trade yet. Um these are areas that can really benefit through the cycle over time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:50] I don't think it turns on a dime. I don't think shareholder returns go to zero, but I think they go down. M&A picks up, spending goes up. I think some combination of those three things are how we're looking at it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:56] buying power names down 25 to 35% on the year, buying long life natural gas resource that's really pricing the hole as global super majors are pivoting back

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:57] We're still expecting a recession at some point. We've become much more cautious about it. Obviously, the recession hasn't emerged as soon as we thought it would. Uh and what our view is now is that yes, we probably will have a recession sometime between now and 2028. So possibly emerging in 2027, but I'll get back to that timing in a second.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:56] We think that the Fed will raise interest rates at least one more time, maybe two more times, but it's going to be wholly dependent on what's happening in the economy.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:29] All of those cuts in the big beautiful bill were geared to come into being in the fourth quarter of 2026 and early 2027 after the congressional elections. Now, you're starting to see some of those cutbacks now, but over the next six to nine months, you're going to see a massive reduction in government spending in the United States. That's going to have a major negative impact on economic activity in the United States.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:08] I think that they will be more active buyers at 4,100 like we have today, or if it goes down to 4,000 or if it goes down even further. I think there will be more active buyers at these levels than they were at 4,500, 4,700.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:10] I'm not going to be, you know, smart enough to say 525 is the high. Uh, but we're getting close enough that I would and actually am starting to look towards getting long the bond market. And I've been short the market and been badmouthing bonds since 2020. And now at these levels, I'm actually kind of coming around to that there's some real value there.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:04] the 5-year inflation rate. What is the inflation rate going to be between now in 2031? And that one is almost 1% higher than it was precoid. So yes, the tips market is pricing in more inflation for the next 5 years. We've had elevated inflation since 2021. So, it's been 5 years. It's saying for another 5 years, we're going to have elevated inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:25] I think that cycle ended in 2020. And so, I just don't know how we're going to get that goods inflation down... the probability of that happening, whether we have a Republican or Democrat, is effectively zero.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:36] we're going to be at a much higher interest rate world going forward. So the Fed could go back to something like a zero funds rate. Well, again, we're at a much higher inflation rate right now and we're going to be at a much higher interest rate world going forward.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:38] 5% on yields now is actually very normal. And that was one of the things we argued about in in the podcast is uh that history of 2010 to 2020 might never be repeated again unless you were to get microscopically low inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:34] my base case is that is that we're back in in somewhat of a consolidation for a while. And you know, the last one that lasted years, I mean, I thought it might last a year or two. It ended up lasting longer than that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:38] I think they can keep interest rates high and that's kind of what we've been seeing. I mean, interest rates have been somewhat elevated for a while. Inflation's been elevated for a while and this can just last a lot longer than people will think.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:35] Well, on average, I I think it'll it'll it'll the fiscal side will win. Meaning that and that's kind of one of the definitions of fiscal dominance, which is that um Congress is not going to change uh their policies realistically based on what the Fed's doing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:58] when Bitcoin 2025,000 and treasury companies are trading at three times, you know, their their their like net asset value, I'm a little bit cautious. Um, but, you know, when Bitcoin is dead is back in the headlines. Um, you know, I'm a little bit more bullish on that asset. Um, you know, we got kind of monthly momentum indicators turning up on Bitcoin for the first time since something like late 2022.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:04] I think given what I just said, the chances are for a slowdown in consumption, a slowdown in GDP growth, and a slowdown in earnings per share growth are very high for 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:33] the correction that has to happen just to bring prices back to you know equilibrium is about is over 50% on equity prices and about 25 to 30% at a minimum in the real estate market

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:33] the correction that has to happen just to bring prices back to you know equilibrium is about is over 50% on equity prices and about 25 to 30% at a minimum in the real estate market

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:13] I think they're going to go three times. I think they might skip October. they will go December and one more in January.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:11] if the economy breaks, he's going to be cutting from wherever he is at the time, four, four and a quarter% back down to 1% eventually. That's where I think he's going, one or even zero.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:02] So you have to own precious metals there. That would be the that would be the the most important thing I would own in the portfolio. Also energy related. Um so base metals, agriculture, precious metals, and energy. That's that would be where you that's your best bet to get um ahead of you know a real return on your investments.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:27] at the very least, even if they don't spike under this massive trillions and trillions of money printing, they will not fall in the same fashion as it did before. that that that much I can I'm very confident in.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:50] the most dangerous thing right now is the active is the um passively managed 6040 portfolio. I that's going to that's going to that's going to perform even worse than it did in 2022

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:53] If you give me five years uh not merely higher but substantially higher understand that a five-year question does not presuppose a six-month answer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:53] in the very near term uh rising US interest rates irrespective of whether it occurs as a consequence of the Fed or the market is bearish for gold in the near term.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:04] There I think will come a time uh in the next 10 years where the deterioration of the purchasing power of the US dollar will cause the nominal price of gold when I say nominal I mean the US dollar quoted price of gold to escalate fairly rapidly and if that happens I'm tempted to say when but let's say if that happens uh I would expect that the gold narrative catches the attention attention of the generalist investors in saver.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:00] I think we're going to see uh a continuation and in fact a step up in mergers and acquisition activity.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:30] I believe that you'll see a continuation of the circumstance that you see now where the Fed is able to maintain control over the 2-year because they're such predominant players in the 2-year, but they lose control of the rate on the 10-year and the 20-year and the 30-year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:11] the chance of the S&P being higher 10 years from now than it is right now is almost zero from a mathematical probability standpoint. and and you can use almost any valuation you want to use and it's all going to bring you to the same exact conclusion.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:09] these interest rates are going to go up until the fever breaks. And the two places the two things that'll happen is they will go get money from where it is and that is the 20 largest stocks in the S&P 500 which will ruin the S&P index trade and it will ruin the trade in those stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:17] they will go get money from where it is and that is the 20 largest stocks in the S&P 500 which will ruin the S&P index trade and it will ruin the trade in those stocks. A and then the people that do that selling will turn around and buy interestbearing securities probably at the shorter end 0 to 5 years and that will begin to bring rates down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] They cut rates 200 basis points. That's what will happen. That's what will happen when the mania breaks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:31] A bare market. It's not a question of whether there will be. The question is when. But the longer we go without it, what's the magnitude going to be?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:44] We very possibly will never again see $55 to $60 oil, but the companies we own organize themselves so they could still be very profitable at $60 a barrel. But just think of how much free cash flow they're going to have the next 10 years at oil anywhere from say 70 to $120.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:23] Uh, that is delusional... we're in a bull market. We've got people by the throat.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:35] we're in a 15 to 30year outperformance era for commodities relative to stocks because stocks are the most expensive they've ever been. And in 2020, commodities were the cheapest they've ever been.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[44:29] our companies might make six years worth of income in the next two years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[44:22] It's going to take two or three years to establish normal inventory.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:26] what's going to happen is mortgage rates are going to go down. And when mortgage rates go down and people are losing money on stocks, they'd much rather own a house than own a stock.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[45:39] we won't even be close to a top in the oil stocks until they consolidate the industry. That'll be that'll be and we we haven't even started yet.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:51] The only times when we see that take place are periods just before recession or just before the Federal Reserve turns around and cuts rates... when you see the 2-year 10-year spread get this flat and head down toward even lower levels, it usually precedes a recession.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:26] The Fed is likely to continue hiking rates, but inevitably the Federal Reserve will continue going until it can't go anymore. And when it doesn't go anymore, it's usually because the economy has fallen off and the Fed has finally figured out there wasn't a resilient situation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:05] Energy costs go up, something has to give. Consumer spending pulls back. You've got weaker marginal companies that have to cut back because they're getting a margin squeeze. Input costs go up. Can't pass those costs on customers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:38] The market is saying yes you should be worried about gasoline and fuel but the ultimate outcome is not that gasoline and fuel prices spill over into services costs or some other categories... the increase in gasoline and fuel prices in the short run lead to businesses cutting back employers or cutting back on employees and labor market and income

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:03] if long-term interest rates are the three components, we've already eliminated inflation. The second part is growth and which we just talked about with a flat yield curve. The flat yield curve is an indication the market is not looking at a reflationary environment... that leaves us just the expected path of short-term interest rates... It's not that rates can't go up, it's why rates are going up. And therefore, does that tell us that there's maybe a ceiling on how far rates can go

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:39] I don't think there's actually going to be anything other than just extending the deadlines because there's really no appetite to tackle the issues either way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:23] every single disruptive technology that leads to a capital expenditure cycle ends the same way at least in the short run you have this tremendous impulse at the start and then the collapse and then you know the more gentle slope to broader adoption. We're on the upswing in the initial phase and so there's a downswing there and with so much depending upon AI not just macroeconomically but also financially it's a really tough situation

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:20] I don't again I don't think in the end I don't think that that'll last over the next year or two.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:38] It just doesn't look like that's going to happen the next few quarters.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:41] if you look at at what's uh likely to happen in 2027 uh they're likely to move to a sub20 multiple um and or at least sometime in 27 which with their growth rates is pretty amazing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:57] So what I would tell your audience right now is that oil is going to climb. Now, how high will it go? That depends on how destructive the future is.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:20] And if anybody thinks that gold might not be a great investment at this point is insane because this could easily destroy our fiat currency system.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:29] I don't see any evidence that the central banks are going to stop buying it. Uh they're they're stocking up. They continue to stock up on it. That's going to continue into the future. So, whatever else happens, the demand for gold is going to rise dramatically.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:51] copper is one of the things that lubricates uh modern technological civilization can't get along without it. If you go down through the precious metals not just gold but but look at all of them then you have to to look at the source... it too is going to rise dramatically in value

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:41] the petro dollar system is now dead. It is expired... So maybe we're looking at a new currency entirely in the United States at some point.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:58] I think President Trump could end up in a position far, far worse than Nixon and be compelled to resign. That could happen in January. It could happen in the spring of next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:33] In the long term, we're going to go into a terrible, terrible energy crisis. There's nothing there's nothing that can stop this. We can postpone it and that's what we've been doing for months, but we can't stop it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:21] There's no evidence whatsoever that we're prepared to accept anything less than the capitulation of Iran to our demands. And the Iranians recognize their survival depends upon their ability to resist that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:53] He's going to have to raise again. And so, you and I talked about this in our last interview, and I said he's going to have to follow the yield curve, uh, the two-year bond yield, and likely it's going to go up. And there you go. He went up 25 basis points. So, they're likely going to do it again uh whenever their next meeting is, October, November, do another 25 basis points uh hike.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:59] And when they put their next rate hike in, it may have a slight effect again, but be very temporary, just like the last time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:18] we're we're in this narrow channel right now for both gold and silver going up and down in a trading range. Um, and then we have to wait until we either break above or break below the support or the resistance levels and that then we'll have an idea of where we're going, but right now it's going to be an up and down chop until something major happens.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:58] a lot of experts are talking about, you know, an imminent market collapse, uh, stock market crash, you know, by or no later than mid-October.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:02] 2027 is 2022, but potentially a lot worse because we have a lot more bubbles and the Fed's going to make a major policy mistake, invert the yield curve, and then have to cut interest rates. I expect parts of the market to be crashing before you get a full-blown one like 2022.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] Q2 of next year is going to be nasty. That's going to be the big GDP slowdown and that's the one that you want to be watching.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:18] yes, I think the Fed's going to raise rates. They're going to raise them too many times as they always do at the end of a cycle.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:24] I think they're gonna have a panic attack and have panic rate cuts. It might be like 08 where you know the Bernank and the whole nine yards.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:37] I think the 2-year yield is going to keep going up faster than the 10-year yield. So, I think the curve the the Fed is eventually going to invert the yield curve, which is a huge risk going into 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:33] there's a lot more upside in the 10-year yield, by the way, and the 2-year yield.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:45] today it says Brent oil the highest it can go at least in the next three weeks is 112.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:10] we're probably going to buy gold again at some point next year right before the Fed stops hiking and goes into panic rate cut mode.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:04] I am short of Canadian dollars uh versus the US dollar. And um you know, this is this this ruffles some feather... it's a short until he stops with this stuff.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:14] the rate of change of GDP growth is going to get cut in half next year. If we're right, it wouldn't be hard to do because we're going to print three and a half to four. So, you know, divide that by two and that's where we're essentially at for the second quarter uh of 2027 on our model.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:47] it looks like consumer discretionary is going to start to crash as well. XLY we're short that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:38] it's up 27 basis points versus the 3.40% headline CPI year-over-year that was just reported. So, that's the next number they're going to get.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:32] My best guess is that this might be a oneanddone type thing with the Fed. They raise 0.25%. Maybe in the next couple months we get some kind of market top. We think we might get a blowoff top in the market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:24] rates go down to maybe three on the 10-year in the next year or two. So there's a really good in in our opinion opportunity to buy high quality bonds here and then trade out of them in the next couple years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:24] the dollar basket is is very strong here recently it's above 100 the DXY I think the old high is closer to 120 I think that we probably hit a new high in the early days of a crisis that come maybe we see 120 plus but then ultimately I wouldn't be surprised if we settled at 60 to 80 you know 30 to 40% below where we are

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:08] some kind of market top in the next, who knows, six months in stocks, some kind of big draw down or drop. The Fed comes in, does more QE or at least signals it, and rates go down to maybe three on the 10-year in the next year or two.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:11] I think interest rates going to go up. I think oil prices are going to continue to go up until the stock market breaks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:15] I think oil prices are going to continue to go up until the stock market breaks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:58] It wouldn't surprise me if the 10 year is at six. Right now, we're at five.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:32] this idea that inflation is somehow going to go down to 2%. To me, it's just unfathomable.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:06] inflation is is three and change and heading up, not down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:12] we're nearing top of the cycle. Earnings are very volatile and when the economy slows and we go into a recession, I think you're going to see earnings really take a header, especially because of what I see going on with AI and technology.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:02] I'm passionately bearish on consumer stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:02] I'm passionately bearish on consumer stocks. Uh but I'm wildly bullish on gold and energy stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:02] I'm passionately bearish on consumer stocks. Uh but I'm wildly bullish on gold and energy stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:58] Housing great location. Houses in a world of hurt now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:32] what will cause a slowdown as I said I think rates and oil will continue to go up until until we get a until the market breaks and we will get a recession

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:39] I think you're looking at best case stagflation and it may be a stagflationary recession

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:49] interest rates are not going to come down meaningfully unless we get a big recession. And even then, we might not get rates coming down a whole lot for the reasons I just said.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:09] I just think the upside in markets is very limited and the downside is potentially quite significant.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:11] if the AI thing stops which I believe it will and goes into reverse I think you will see a recession and probably a very nasty one at that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:40] let's say the Democrats do sweep. All right. What's that going to do to the market? I suspect they're not going to like it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:06] So the question is, you know, 5% is the level where the US tenure has tended to peak out and then come back down. Do you think this time we go past five? I think it's possible um in the in the near term.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:27] I will be very happy to repurchase at 12 or even lower and ride that defer that capital gain when it comes out the other side for a very long period of time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:22] We've seen both those dividends cut, but we will see them again, I think, reinccreased as the cash flow and the balance sheet gets repaired. When do you think we'll see dividend increases out of Telus? Oh, probably it'll probably be 5 years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:27] A merger, we'll see. I I wouldn't I would not bet on it. Um certainly in the next 5 years, but things are changing dramatically.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:52] we're still getting actually a better growth rate, I think, coming out of this with the major... we think we have a better growth rate coming out of this and we've still got, you know, 4 to 6% dividend yields with growth kind of pushing the portfolio ahead.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:17] the index trade uh has been a great trade but that just means it's getting long on the tooth and there's an inordinate number of companies relatively small number of companies I should say that are carrying the um high valuations that are influencing these indexes. So you want to be very careful what you're buying.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:35] there's going to be overspending and there's going to be overinvestment and that means there's going to be some writeoffs and there's going to be some damage. And if you're doing that in the midst of interest rates going up and inflation running hotter, that just puts more pressure on the whole system.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:39] If inflation is going to remain a little higher that means price earnings ratio should actually come down. that puts pressure on valuations. And so if you're an investor, you're saying, I want to be careful what I'm paying for valuations because if uh if inflation is going up, that means interest rates have to be going up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:15] social security is 22% of the of the US budget. And so now you're gonna have interest maybe in another year or two actually surpass social security.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:52] there's going to have to be financial repression of some sort there's going to have to be pressure on our currencies are going to have to continue to have inflation. Um otherwise we're not going to get out of the situation... I want to own a monetary substitute

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.