Louis Gave Predictions

Founder and CEO of Gavekal

Track Louis Gave's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

5 forecasts 5 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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5 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Louis Gave Treasury Market Government bonds will continue to underperform and remain a poor asset class without meaningful changes in fiscal and monetary policy
See quote
[28:10] bonds for an asset class have been dead for 5 years. And I think without a a a meaningful change in fiscal policy and a meaningful change in monetary policies uh in in the western world uh I think bonds stay dead.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-28 2028-06-28 pending
Louis Gave Emerging Markets Latin American stocks will re-rate higher due to political changes, corporate governance improvements, and growth of local pension funds
See quote
[16:28] I've argued with you in the past and um and I've written a lot of pieces in the past couple of years highlighting that there's a lot you know very exciting changes occurring all across Latin America political change corporate governance changes uh growth of local pension funds all of which argue for a rerating of local assets that are deeply deeply undervalued.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-28 2028-06-28 pending
Louis Gave Inflation Rate The global economy will remain in an inflationary boom scenario, driven by continued large fiscal deficits and absence of an oil price spike to $100-120
See quote
[27:02] I think the highest odds are, you know, you're going to be in an inflationary boom.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-28 2027-06-28 pending
Louis Gave Japanese Capital Repatriation Japan will begin significant repatriation of foreign capital within the next 12 months, driven by rising JGB yields and BOJ rate hikes
See quote
[35:51] I think I think it's a story for the next 12 months. Yep. I think it's a story for the next 12 months because the the yen is now so cheap and the JGB yields are uh are starting to move higher. More importantly, the BOJ is starting to raise rates uh and starting to sound a little more inflation hawkish.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-28 2027-06-28 pending
Louis Gave US Dollar The current US Dollar strength will not last
See quote
[6:16] I have been a US dollar bear and um I acknowledge that right now the US dollar is going up of course but I don't think this lasts.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-03-12 2026-12-31 pending