Matthew Piepenburg Predictions
Partner at von Greer's AG
Track Matthew Piepenburg's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[1:45] I think we're still very much in the first chapters of a gold bull market. And as we've said many times, those those bull markets have shakeouts and they have volatility. They have intervention. They have politics, geopolitics, and flatout price fixing. But the the secular direction north and up and to the right for gold and silver, uh, our opinion hasn't changed at all. I think we're still very much in the early stages of an epic run, a generational run.
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[9:02] I mean, this is generational wealth will be made in the right mining sector, in the right mining names and the right mining plays.
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[10:51] the multiples in equities will be far higher than the multiples in just the gold spot price.
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[33:03] there's so much more room for downside risk in this overvalued market than there is upside risk
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[16:35] The the US dollar, which is such a key part of US hedgeimonyy geopolitically uh and financially and militarily, all of those things are changing. Again, it's not the end of Rome or the end of the Dutch or the end of the British empires, but in terms of they still exist, but they're no longer hegemonic. And the same is going to happen to the US. It's happening right now
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[35:20] All are screaming indicators that gold is going to play a much bigger role three two five 10 years from now. I don't know the day or the week that gold spikes to an all-time high. I don't have to know that. just know its direction is north
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[30:20] gold is objectively replacing the US Treasury as a global reserve collateral as a as a central bank asset and and as a better net trade settlement among countries that don't trust each other's currencies but do like to trust gold.
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[26:45] our inflation rate to be to be generous, to be conservative, is at least 10% a year. That means anyone listening to this, whatever their wealth, whatever their sophistication, whatever their view on gold, you're losing 10% to the invisible theft of inflation as you're sitting here every year.
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[8:27] the price direction of the next 3 to 5 to 10 years where gold is going to 15 20,000 easily.
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[11:25] the central banks and the Fed in particular are going to have to expand the balance sheets, become dovish at some point to save the bond market because the government runs on those IUs and they'll sacrifice the currency to do that. Whether that happens this month, next month, or the end of the year is irrelevant to me. That's the endgame. That's the direction.
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[10:46] I still see stagflation coming because no matter what uh happens on Main Street with demand and it's embarrassing... that combination of a very, very accommodative central bank to save the bond market at the expense of the currency will mean stagflation, recessionary forces on Main Street, currency debasement from DC.
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[23:54] gold has now made a fool out of the dollar and it's it's going to make more of a fool of the dollar... We certainly didn't reach peak gold in 2025. We're in the very first innings because the fundamentals just haven't changed.
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[36:11] I'm not here to time it. Many in the silver space are far more bullish than I am. But I'm easily at $200 silver.
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[36:26] Silver will move in a beta trade to gold in a bull market. Gold's bull market is just beginning.
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[28:34] since 1971 right after I was born US dollar versus commodities the dollar has fallen 99% versus gold 96% versus oil 89% versus copper... Paper money is failing... we're going to see more liquidity, more money printing, it's going to continue.
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[33:51] But if we're looking at the price of gold secularly or the price of silver secularly, the miners are going to rip. But again, know your entry, know your exit.
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[2:54] I think we're just in chapter 2. And I've been saying that for years because there's so much more to come.
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[14:44] the longer term implications and direction for this price as trusted store of value is way past the dollar debate or the Bitcoin debate. It's really gold is emerging as central to the new system.
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[10:06] That doesn't mean gold goes to 10,000 on July 24th, but you have to follow the direction of the puck. China, love them or hate them, are playing the long game.
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The prediction is bullish on gold with no specific price target, and gold rose 24.7% by the target date and reached a period high of $5586.2 (a ~67.6% gain) during the window, clearly confirming the bullish directional call; however, the specific mechanism claimed (China establishing a physical gold settlement exchange with less paper manipulation) is not directly verifiable from price data alone.
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[20:17] we are debasing our dollar and we are debasing our currency to sustain our bond market to buy bonds and keep those yields fictionally lower or controlled.
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The prediction claims the US dollar will be debased (decline in value), but the DX-Y.NYB rose 3.5% from $97.48 to $100.85 by the target date, and even the period low of $95.55 represents only a ~2% decline from the prediction date price, which does not constitute meaningful 'debasement'; the dollar actually strengthened over the period.
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[14:11] Fed isn't hawkish. It's totally dovish. It has no choice. The ECB is going to be dovish. It has no choice. The Bank of Japan has no choice. They're going to debase the currencies.
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The prediction was wrong on all three central banks: the ECB raised rates by 25 bps in June 2026, the Bank of Japan hiked to 1.0% as part of its tightening cycle, and the Fed held steady with growing hawkish dissents and a new hawkish chair — none pursued the dovish/debasement policies claimed. (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html)
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[25:27] he's hawkish talk with liquidity through the back door and again trillions through the repo markets the TGA accounts. There's always ways to keep those banks liquid... At some point, all the nonQE QE like we saw at the end of December becomes just outright QE to monetize the debt
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[5:52] Gold is the new trusted collateral... the new collateral isn't sovereign bonds in general or 10-year US treasuries in particular, the new collateral is gold
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[18:15] if you're looking conservatively at 10% inflation compounding per year, I think it's closer to 12. Some say it's could be as low as eight, but if you're being generous and we have a 10% actual inflation, not the Misfit Island of Misfit toys at the BLS telling us it's 4.2.
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Official BLS data shows US inflation was approximately 2.7% for full-year 2025 (December-to-December) and 4.2% for the 12 months ending May 2026 — nowhere near the claimed 10-12%. No credible alternative measure supports 10-12% inflation; even ShadowStats' most aggressive 1980s-methodology estimate for a ~3.67% official reading was around 12%, but that methodology is widely criticized by economists as implausibly high. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)
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[34:17] If you're coming in now looking at these markets, you're chasing tops. That doesn't mean they can't go for two more years. If the Fed is supportive or if there's liquidity at the banks or if there's backdoor QE that keeps these bond markets and these yields compressed, they don't get above 5%. It's risk on.
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[34:51] I know if you think stagflation is the future and that's what I see. There will be deflationary forces. A market mean reversion is deflationary. A recession is deflationary. But the debasement trade necessary to fill the gap
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