Edward Dowd Predictions
Founder, Phinance Technologies
Track Edward Dowd's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[1:33] I I I would be cautious on gold here a little bit, but longterm we still think it's 10,000. uh when we're in the teeth of this uh global slowdown, which we we we've forecasted that's coming, uh there'll be there'll be uh policy responses from the Fed and and and fiscal policy responses, but that that's out in the future and that will uh set up the the next leg of the goal move into 2030 for 10,000.
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[10:30] at these valuations, we've done the work, other people have done the work. We're not the only ones saying this. At these valuations, your 10-year forward returns are projected to be uh zero, including dividends, which implies a big draw down between now and then.
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[31:51] I think it's in the last gasps and uh in in a 40 to 50% draw down. Uh that's when the investment math works the the other way. 50% draw down, you need to go up 100% to get back to break even.
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[5:43] Home prices are about 30% overvalued. That's 20% of our economy. The real estate market is essentially frozen... They need to reset. And they will eventually.
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[23:04] watch the US dollar uh in a global slowdown. uh the US dollar will strengthen because uh there'll be a scramble for dollar liquidity and I think the dollar put in a very important cycle low in January and it broke out above its uh it went to a new 52- week high about a month ago. It back tested that breakout and now it's rising again
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[25:11] Our core inflation is lower out 12 months. And uh we think the Fed is jawbony that they're going to hike, but we ultimately believe they're going to end up cutting rates once the global slowdown starts to manifest.
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[30:43] Silver long-term is fine. It, you know, it will go up, but it's very volatile. And I also want to warn people that is an industrial metal. So, in in an economic slowdown, it'll get sold probably. It'll do a lot worse than gold.
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[12:26] there's these three things kind of conspiring all at once to basically I think hit the pause button on the capex and then throw in the other uh fourth factor. The power just isn't there to plug these data centers into. And so that's going to pause capex naturally because there's just not enough power to turn these things on.
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[28:16] I suspect the mainstream media will start to figure this out sometime in the fall, uh, early winter.
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[0:00] What I would expect to see sometime in the next three to six months is a healthy 20 to 30% pullback, scary, then a counter trend rally, the Fed starts cutting and then if we're in a bear market that counter trend rally will fail and then we'll go to lower lower lows
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[5:55] I think I think we're going to see the growth scare come and be evident by the end of Q2
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claims a 'growth scare' would be evident in the S&P 500 by end of Q2 2026, which is a qualitative/vague claim rather than a specific percentage drop; the market only declined about 2.8% from the prediction date to the period low ($7445.72 to $7237.85) and ended up 0.7% higher by the target date, which is a modest dip that doesn't clearly constitute a 'growth scare,' but interpreting what qualifies as a 'growth scare' requires judgment.
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[6:03] I think the Fed is not going to raise rates. I think the Fed will be cutting sometime towards the end of this year.
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[4:43] we're still very bullish on long the long bond. We like cash as the best near-term investment dry powder for picking up bargains on the other side of this
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[3:56] Housing prices are finally starting to give up the ghost. We had some bad home price declines in March, February, and March... home price declines really started in the south near the border... we're starting to see national prices come down
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[5:08] we're going to see layoffs start to accelerate throughout the year as companies cut the factors of production because of the margin squeeze. We're already seeing layoffs. We'll see those accelerate.
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[15:48] if you want to look at a uh barometer for liquidity, keep watching Bitcoin. Bitcoin peaked in October of uh last year. Bitcoin is trying to rally, but it looks like it may have stalled out. So, watch Bit- Bitcoin will lead the any equity correction.
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[14:04] I think I think the stock prices themselves are telling you the end is not in semiconductors at least. Whether that causes a general market problem remains to be seen.
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[29:46] I'm of the opinion CapEx is going to be scaled back as they realize they can't plug into anything.
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