Melody Wright Predictions
Housing Analyst
Track Melody Wright's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[0:07] we're going to round the corner to Q4 and we're going to have a lot more distressed sales than we've seen uh previously.
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[1:39] Yes, I still believe that because there's no buyers. um there's no buyers and so the general state of the housing market right now is that the selling season was an extreme disappointment for everyone... I do believe that this will be likely worse than what we went through because of our demographics and because the institutional investors, you know, kind of bailed us out last time by buying up those homes to do long-term rental.
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[13:57] we are going to see an increase and a significant one by Q1 of foreclosure sales.
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[9:28] already K. Schiller has seen in 41 of the largest 100 markets in the country year-over-year price declines. And so, like, let's take my series. Last year, there were 23 year-over-year in June. This, you know, there's 32 this year. So this thing is just it's moving Adam is just moving very very slowly
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[27:36] I think the first wave will be you know significant wave probably the first 10 to 12% will happen over the next couple of years.
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[18:22] what that means is likely about a 35 to 50% correction depending on where you are... I think at this point it's very likely... this is going to take a very long time to happen.
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[29:54] we are going to start to see foreclosure sales go up significantly by the end of this year.
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[20:42] we're starting to see our first prime weakness now. So, FHA had been the driver... But now, what you're starting to see is the Prime books. That's Fanny and Freddy, and this should be pristine credit. And now, what they've done over the past several years... now you're seeing it on in the agency books. Um like it's happening.
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[36:52] and then by Q4 uh you are going to have a material population as those people that called in November um are basically uh cuz those three months they didn't pay their trial payments they're al they're going that would have to go into the forbearance. So, right around Q4 after the election is when you're going to start to see uh and I'm not laughing about this, it's just the data just got really interesting and and so but you're you're going to start to see a real material buildup of sales.
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[20:57] Again, you still think nationally prices could go down somewhere in the 35% range. And nationally, we're still what I mean, are we even down more than a%? We're not even negative yet.
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[21:43] Um, but when I saw that Freddy Mack home price index, um, I I I think it was yesterday or two days ago, I was like, 'Oh, no.' like this this actually could we could for the first time in many many many years not peak out completely in June.
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[18:05] so it's we're going to see that correction and it could actually happen a little bit faster in the Midwest because I think their realization will come faster.
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[20:20] I don't think we've hit the bottom. I think a lot of people are saying we've hit the bottom in San Francisco. Um I think if we have any sort of correction and uh any of these stocks like Nvidia like the B we haven't even begun there. So I think we're again at this sort of turning point. Um but no I don't think Austin is dawn. I really don't.
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