Chris Galipeau Predictions
Head Market Strategist, Franklin Templeton
Track Chris Galipeau's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[5:17] the S&P is about 1% from its all-time high. So, money's rotating. That's good.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[11:03] Specifically, small cap in the US and EM equities. ... That will probably continue. So, in the US, small and mid have the pole position with large value.
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[14:44] Our guess is the Fed does nothing this year.
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[2:22] what you'll see is the earnings power for this year and next year is very broad and it's very robust.
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[13:20] I would expect through the rest of earning season, through the next 6 weeks, we are going to hear that on every single earning call, every call.
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[12:01] the S&P 500 is up on average about 12% with a 75% hit rate. And the reason for that is the stock market doesn't care about geopolitics. The stock market doesn't care about politics. The stock market cares about earnings and stock prices follow earnings over time.
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[3:16] the hyperscalers and the mag seven guys really struggle this year down into today 174 basis points so red and that's 12% behind the S&P those stocks have probably bombed out sold pulled out, they probably should rally
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[4:37] I think Q2 is going to be going to be pretty good, David. you know Q1 was plus 25% yearonear you know the consensus was plus 12 or 13 so the actual report was 100% better than street you know consensus it was above what we had expected to the estimate for Q2 is north of 20 we're expecting something north of 15 yearon year
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Q2 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth came in far above both the predicted range and the consensus. FactSet reported a blended earnings growth rate of ~50% (or ~32% excluding Alphabet and Amazon), while other sources peg it at 24–42% YoY — all well above the predicted 'north of 15% but below 20%+' range. (https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026)
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[19:42] our forecast for this year for core PCE is three spot three. Worst just guided us to that exact number two weeks ago.
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[20:16] So right now as we're sitting here two-year yields are about 50 basis points above the effective federal funds rate that suggests the Fed is likely to hike rates right fed fund futures market is pricing a cut sorry a hike in December... Our guess is, this is just our best guess is uh they do nothing here, at least in the near term.
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[24:34] We don't need the Fed to cut rates here, right? Real GDP is probably going to grow two and a half. Economy is strong, consumer resilient, right?
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[29:51] We're up 10% in the first 6 months. Our target range is 7,400 7,800. We're in the middle of that now. That's why I think you don't chase it here and and you buy pullbacks. We'll get some, David, right? It's a midterm year. We'll get some V this summer.
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[23:58] My guess is we have an inline to slightly higher number. And what I'm really interested in, if that's the case, is back to what we just talked about. I want to see what two-year and 10-year yields do coming out of that number tomorrow.
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The June 2026 jobs report came in at only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, well below the consensus forecast of ~115,000 (Dow Jones) or ~110,000 (Reuters). The prediction of 'inline to slightly higher' relative to the ~115,000 consensus was clearly wrong — the actual number missed by roughly 58,000 jobs. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html)
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[6:58] I think it's probably got a couple more years to go. You're right in that, you know, big tech capex spend has driven a lot of of GDP, right? And but but it's been real.
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