Mark Skousen Predictions

Professor of Economics at Chapman University

Track Mark Skousen's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

19 forecasts 33% accuracy 2 correct 4 wrong 13 pending
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19 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Mark Skousen Republican Party Republicans will lose control of the House in the November midterm elections due to the affordability/inflation crisis.
See quote
[6:04] The affordability crisis is the one issue that I think will derail the Republican Trump MAGA movement in November, uh, where they will be on their heels and they will lose control of the house mainly because the Federal Reserve has been too active in printing money since, uh, since 2020

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-13 2026-11-04 pending
Mark Skousen Inflation Rate Inflation will not exceed 3-4% due to Fed Chair Warsh's semi-monetarist approach.
See quote
[16:44] I don't think it's going up beyond 3 or 4% because you have Warsh who's now uh a semi-monetarist. I think you'll see the money supply, maybe he'll bring the money supply growth rate down uh to that two two to three for maybe four five percent at the most.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-13 2027-08-13 pending
Mark Skousen Bull Market / Technology Stocks The current technology bull market has further to run and has not yet peaked, with a major bubble and eventual NASDAQ-style crash of up to 70% to come later.
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[14:28] I think we're only halfway there and yes, at the end it's probably going to be a pretty big bubble when it's all through and we could get similar to the the 2000-2003 era where the NASDAQ fell 70%... but I don't think we're there yet.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-13 2030-12-31 pending
Mark Skousen Bull Market The current bull market could last until 2029 or 2030.
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[28:47] I think we're halfway through this bull market. It could last until uh, 2029, 2030, uh, I think is a real possibility.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-13 2030-12-31 pending
Mark Skousen July Ai/Tech Correction The July 2026 tech/AI correction has bottomed and the sector is moving higher again in August 2026.
See quote
[28:02] No, no, that's that's not a that's not a serious bear market. Didn't even fall 20%... So, I think that was a minor correction. Don't think it was really that serious uh and it's it's clearly bottomed out and starting to move higher again in in August

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-13 2026-08-31 pending
Mark Skousen Gross Output Gross output growing faster than GDP signals continued economic growth ahead.
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[43:35] right now uh gross output is starting to grow faster than GDP, and this is a very positive sign for the economy growing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-13 2026-12-31 pending
Mark Skousen Inflation Rate Inflation will remain permanently elevated as the Fed cuts rates before reaching its 2% target, ensuring ongoing inflationary pressure
See quote
[10:04] We are entering an era of permanent inflation. The the Federal Reserve doesn't even wait for the uh the rates the inflation rate to come down to that 2% target before they start cutting rates. They're so anxious to cut rates. So that means more inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

ITM Trading 2026-06-15 2028-06-15 pending
Mark Skousen S&P 500 The stock market will have a sluggish and difficult year in 2026, unlikely to move substantially higher
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[17:51] the second year of the presidential cycle tends to be very iffy in the stock market. We had a very good year the first year uh under Trump, but the second year with these midterms coming up and so on, there's a great deal of uncertainty. I'd just be surprised to see the stock market uh move substantially higher one way or another. I think it's just going to be a sluggish and difficult year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

ITM Trading 2026-06-15 2026-12-31 pending
Mark Skousen Interest Rates Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will not cut interest rates, as bond market rates are rising and a cut would be untenable
See quote
[16:50] Kevin refused to cut interest rates. He's not cutting interest rates, right? ... Well, the mar the bond market tells you where interest rates are headed, right? And what is that? What are what are interest rates doing? They're going up, folks. They're going up. So, how can the Fed cut interest rates? They only can cut short-term rates anyway. He's going to look like an idiot if he cuts interest rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

ITM Trading 2026-06-15 2026-12-31 pending
Mark Skousen Gold Gold has not topped out and will not remain down
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[13:50] it's premature to say gold is topped out and is is going to stay down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

ITM Trading 2026-06-15 2027-06-15 pending
Mark Skousen Silver Silver will not reach $300, with such a target being unrealistic
See quote
[15:57] But didn't you think I mean, there's experts that are calling for $300 silver. Yeah, that's crazy. That's crazy. That kind of reminds me when people were predicting $200 oil and of course it moved in the opposite direction.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

ITM Trading 2026-06-15 2028-06-15 pending
Mark Skousen Silver Silver will reach $100 and never go back under $50
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[11:26] And now my prediction is that it's back over $50 headed to 100 again. It's never going to go back under 50 because of all the inflation that we've seen in the past.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-04-01 2027-04-01 pending
Mark Skousen Uranium Uranium has more room to grow from $85 toward its previous high of $120 per pound
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[9:59] and uranium is not reached its previous high of $120 a pound. Uh I think it's around $85 a pound. So, there's more room to grow with the uranium stocks as well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-04-01 2027-04-01 pending
Mark Skousen Inflation Rate March CPI will be substantially higher
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[13:35] Plus, we'll probably see that with the March CPI coming out that'll be I think substantially higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-04-01 2026-04-10

March 2026 CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% annual rate — the highest since May 2024 and above economist expectations, confirming the prediction of a 'substantially higher' reading. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm)
Mark Skousen Tech Stocks Technology stocks could fall in half
See quote
[3:41] certain areas of the stock market could fall in half. I mean the technology stocks could fall in half and they'd still be overvalued, wouldn't they?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-07 2025-12-31 wrong
Mark Skousen Stagflation The economy is entering an area of stagflation due to rising costs from tariffs
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[7:16] So I am not surprised that we're entering an area of stagflation of rising prices due to the rising costs of these tariffs that are being imposed by Trump.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-07 2025-12-31

The U.S. economy did not enter stagflation by year-end 2025. Real GDP grew 2.1% for the full year, with strong Q2 (3.8%) and Q3 (4.4%) growth, and core PCE inflation remained at ~2.8% — elevated but not 'stagflationary.' While Q1 contracted and tariffs did raise prices modestly, the economy proved resilient, contradicting the stagflation claim. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025)
Mark Skousen US Dollar The dollar has been losing value and will continue to face pressure
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[13:38] The dollar has been losing value for the last 6 months. This is a very dangerous uh uh a a a separation or gap if you will between what is normally a a a cons consensus a a a movement together that you often see but you're not seeing it now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-07 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed the dollar 'will continue to face pressure,' which is a bearish claim of ongoing weakness. The period low of $96.22 (2.7% decline from prediction date price of $98.94) confirms the dollar did face downward pressure during the period, and the closing price of $98.28 (-0.7%) also shows net weakness by the target date, validating the bearish prediction.
Mark Skousen Gold Gold has made its big move and will struggle from here for a while
See quote
[20:11] No, I think there's more opportunity in the mining companies now than than in gold. So, I'm stressing uh my investments in in mining companies uh over gold. I think gold has made its big move and I think it's going to struggle from here for for a while.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-07 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed gold would 'struggle from here for a while' (bearish outlook), but gold actually increased 29.8% by the target date and reached a period high of $4556.3 (36.7% above the prediction date price), demonstrating sustained strength rather than struggle.
Mark Skousen Recession A business recession is still in place and tariffs will exacerbate the situation
See quote
[35:22] it sounds like it's still a re a business recession is still in place and I think the tariffs is is just going to exacerbate that situation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-07 2025-12-31 wrong