Ed Dowd Predictions
Former BlackRock Portfolio Manager, Founder of Finance Technologies
Track Ed Dowd's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[1:33] home prices g nationally are starting to roll. There's still some bright spots in the blue cities. So, uh nationally, they're starting to roll over and that's 20% of the economy... So that should should filter in over the next uh 6 to 12 months as construction layoffs continue.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[4:35] we're we're in the danger zone here in the next couple months. So the AI bubble we believe is going to burst.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claims the AI bubble will 'burst' within the next couple of months, implying a significant crash. The NDX only fell to a period low of $27176.03, representing a decline of about 6.2% from the prediction date price of $28957.6, which is a modest pullback rather than a bubble burst, and by the target date the index was up 1.8%.
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[3:50] semiconductor stocks are up 80% in nine weeks. These are these are blowoff tops. We've seen this before in the dotcom era and there are shortages but shortages lead to glutes and we think this is the last gasp the last the last takeoff in the AI stocks
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed semiconductor stocks were at a blowoff top and near their peak, implying a significant reversal. From the prediction date price of $569.69, the period high was $671.83 (up ~18%) before the period low of $503.63 (down ~11.6%), and the final price was nearly flat at -0.5%. The stock actually rallied significantly higher before pulling back, meaning the prediction of being 'near their peak' was partially correct (there was a reversal from the high), but the claim of a major reversal/crash typical of 'blowoff tops' and 'last gasp' language implies a substantial sustained decline, which didn't materialize as the price ended nearly flat at the target date.
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[7:55] if you were to like get an inheritance and put your $1 million inheritance in the stock market today, you're likely guaranteed a 0% return including dividends for 10 years, which incl which implies a a tremendous draw down between now and then.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[18:08] technically, it looks like it wants to go find a new low at the moment. It may rally from here, but uh the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed Bitcoin would find a new low in the near term. The period low was $57,747.77 on trading day 26, which is below the prediction date price of $60,922.67, representing a ~5.2% decline - so Bitcoin did make a new low (lower than the prediction date price) during the period, which technically satisfies the 'new low' claim.
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[21:50] I know when it's done, we're going to see $10,000 gold by 2030, which was I also made that call at the beginning of 2025. So, that call is intact.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.