New Predictions
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[15:58] This is why I still only expect one hike uh this year.
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[3:45] There are 400 billion worth of stablecoin dollars right now. There's going to be many, many trillions. And the Treasury Secretary himself has said there's going to be many trillions.
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[14:13] the dollar is breaking you know, and I I put out a post on X recently that confidence is slowly eroded and then it just collapses.
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[0:07] I do think that 10-year bond yields at 5%. Is potentially a line in the sand for both the economy, the stock market, and definitely the Treasury, and possibly the Fed. We're pretty close to 5% at this point. In the short run, that may be our maximum upside in yield.
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[0:13] I wouldn't think that the uh NAFTA going away is very likely.
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[3:49] this is going to be a major potential sweep against Republicans... And what does it mean for markets? Bottom line, that's always what it means for markets. For me, as neutral as possible. And my thought is this is going to be very contentious midterm election year. last two midterm election years, markets were down 2018 2022 in mid um in um S&P 500 total return.
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[2:02] I'm I'm still very constructive for the next 12 months, but there's speed bumps ahead.
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[14:12] I'm still not on that gold bullish camp. I'm still worried it's going to go lower, but all metals like even copper starting to break down.
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[5:24] we still think Christmas by Christmas Day for example you'll be finishing 60% odds in the range just higher up somewhere below 5,600 gold uh below $121 silver but above the lows of the falling wedge.
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[25:24] What I'm saying about the Bitcoin is I'm like you will understand and the price will be higher.
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[28:23] one of the best leading indicators for everything I've used for the last decade or so is Bitcoin and it's just broke up to a decent resistance level and I think it's heading back downward. So I'm looking that as a decent leading indicator. If it stays below 80, which was key resistance, and just goes back down to the trend, it might be what led everything up is leading everything back down.
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Recently Settled
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[27:44] I'm waiting to see what happens after tomorrow, after the 21st, if that 3-day typical kind of emotional stampede into an asset class runs out of steam and we start to see it roll over next week or if it's going to hold its ground and and push up.
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The prediction claimed gold would 'roll over' (decline) the week after August 21, but instead gold rose from $4516.3 to a period high of $4670.9 on August 24 and closed at $4627.6 on the target date, a 2.5% gain with no significant rollover occurring.
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[4:46] if they do that, that's bullish oil and that's bearish for the stock market. I think that's probably for me that's a that's a that's a big focus for this week anyway.
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The prediction is conditional ('if they do that') and claims oil will be bullish this week. The period high was $94.81 on day 3 (a +4.2% rise from $91.02), suggesting some bullish movement mid-week, but the target date close was $86.01 (-5.5%), and the period ended at the low of $85.85. The prediction doesn't specify a magnitude, just 'bullish,' and while there was a brief rally to $94.81, the overall week was bearish. However, the grade depends on whether 'bullish this week' means any upward move occurred or whether the week ended higher — the period high did show a meaningful rally, but the overall trend was down.
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[28:02] No, no, that's that's not a that's not a serious bear market. Didn't even fall 20%... So, I think that was a minor correction. Don't think it was really that serious uh and it's it's clearly bottomed out and starting to move higher again in in August
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The prediction claimed the tech/AI sector had bottomed and was moving higher in August 2026, but the NDX fell from $30084.5 on the prediction date to a period low of $28875.96 on August 24 (a -3.99% decline) and closed at $29456.97 on the target date (-2.1%), clearly not moving higher but continuing lower.
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[22:05] I think we're going to wake up at some point, maybe this week or next week, I don't know, and we're going to find out that it has begun again.
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As of August 18, 2026, the US had not resumed strikes on Iran for 19 consecutive nights since the cancellation of the threatened campaign on August 1. The pause held through the entire prediction window (Aug 6–19), with no CENTCOM-confirmed US strikes inside Iran restarting. (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm)
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[0:40] I'm expecting no rate hike, although I think they should. And I'm expecting several dissents and a rockus meeting that we won't know about. that there could be as many as five or six descents that it could be a 75 or 66 vote in order to not raise rates.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% as predicted, but there were only 3 dissents (a 9-3 vote), not the 'five or six' dissents claimed. The prediction of no rate hike was correct, but the prediction of 5-6 dissents was significantly off. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html)
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[14:13] the dollar is breaking you know, and I I put out a post on X recently that confidence is slowly eroded and then it just collapses.
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[4:42] this is where the dollar really is going to pay the dues for all these years of easy access. So, uh, I think it's big news. I think it's going to be further big news and I think he comes out on the short end of the stick.
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[7:44] likely uh in September, we're 11 days into September. That is going to translate to more than 5% increase in gasoline prices which will add uh roughly uh 0.2 percentage point on headline CPI. So in September uh the headline CPI is going to be probably at least 0.4%.
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[28:49] Abs. Absolutely. Um delayed, extended, and it'll be more extreme now. So, it's similar to 2008. We've had this unusual spike in crude oil and energy because of the decision of one man to invade Iran... That's created pretty severe inflation, but it's short-term.
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[24:10] I I think we're in for a generation of tougher times. Let's understand that we've been living beyond our means for decades here in the US.
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[10:44] We may enter into distress because of the high interest rate policy, and that would create a catastrophic slowdown in economic activity that the Fed would then be forced to respond to by rapidly lowering interest rates.
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