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[2:50] It is pointing to potentially 6 and 1 half yield as the first level all the way up to 8% which uh will wreak havoc, right, and create a financial crisis, a global financial crisis most likely.
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[4:20] We believe we're towards the end of the correction. We're now looking for some sort of rebasing and stabilization. We believe most of the damage is done.
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[31:18] the market is pricing in a near zero chance of a hike this week. Um I was surprised that after his September press conference, um there was a a hike priced in at all for October. I always thought that was a remote possibility. ... I think that the odds of an October rate hike were always very, very slim.
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The Fed held rates steady at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote. The prediction that the Fed would hold (not hike) was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html)
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[7:09] expected inflation bottoms out in February of this year. No coincidence. That's the last month before the Iran war starts. And then it's just it we're just off to the races after that.
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[18:21] So, we expect by the end of Q1 we'll be able to make our first drawdown uh from the DFC.
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[21:29] I I think we're stuck in a trading range. Um you have tech at such a a you know an extreme in terms of its waiting... in my view, I think we go sideways.
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[36:55] I think it may will fade out next year, which means that the stock market ultimately catches up with what everything else is doing.
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[25:44] I have the downside move for for gold is about 3,100 uh an ounce if this pattern is to play out. And I I think that's I think that's going to be an amazing opportunity whether you like metals or not being able to pick it up at a discount
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[23:02] I would say what we're looking at today because we don't have the same kind of radical change we did going from 19 to 20. You're at least in the forecast I'm seeing, I'm not seeing the same kind of radical change from 26 to 27. So that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to see a big spike in gold like you did previously. But I think there is a strong argument to be made again because the trajectory is wrong that you see over time an increase in gold even if it's erratic, right? You can dollar cost average that sucker and know it's going to go up over time.
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[31:10] it's got about a 13% move up to 94,500 and if you notice this this level let's just zoom in a little bit more it's hit it's 6 it's 618 level and the way it usually works is if you've gone up and you hit the 618 and it pulls back and pauses you almost always go up to the 100% measured move.
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[31:02] I'm actually in the camp that we may have a little bit more upside here, but I'm looking for a bigger pullback to maybe as low as 67,000 where I would be a a big buyer at that point.
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Recently Settled
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[31:18] the market is pricing in a near zero chance of a hike this week. Um I was surprised that after his September press conference, um there was a a hike priced in at all for October. I always thought that was a remote possibility. ... I think that the odds of an October rate hike were always very, very slim.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote. The prediction that the Fed would hold (not hike) was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html)
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[27:36] So that's my take is that they won't do it in October. And last but not least, um you know, there's an election like 5 days after they meet. And so unless there's a compelling reason for them to hike, um I I think they're going to say, you know what? We don't need to.
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The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 on October 28, 2026 to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4%, confirming the prediction that the Fed would not hike at the October meeting. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html)
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[7:11] We should find yields, put a bottom in over the next few sessions or the next week, and then they can go and head up to much higher pricing.
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The prediction claimed yields would bottom within a week and then head 'significantly higher,' but yields fell from $5.098 on the prediction date to a period low of $4.939 on trading day 4 and closed at $4.989 on the target date, representing a -2.1% decline with no significant upward move materializing during the window.
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[17:04] I fear that greatly. I I would say the odds are 60 to 70%... you're going to see some really dangerous things happening between now and the 27th of the month. It It's an exceptionally dangerous period of time.
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The period between October 16–27, 2026 saw clear escalation in the Middle East: Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports intensified, Saudi-led coalition launched retaliatory strikes on Yemen, oil tanker attacks continued in the Strait of Hormuz, and Netanyahu reportedly planned a military offensive against Iran ahead of the October 27 Israeli election. The prediction of 'really dangerous things happening' was borne out by events. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war)
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[19:00] I wouldn't be surprised if they hike. But I saw yesterday that John Williams, he's the president of the New York Fed, he said he does expect maybe a couple of rate hikes this year still, but none next year.
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The Fed held rates steady at the October 28 meeting (as widely expected, ~90% probability), having already hiked in September. The prediction claimed a hike 'at or before' October 28 — the September hike satisfies that technically, but the October meeting was a hold. More critically, the claim that 'no further hikes next year' is wrong: a December 2026 hike was expected by all 100 economists surveyed by Reuters, and markets priced in further 2027 hikes as well. (https://www.ebc.com/forex/fed-october-2026-rate-decision)
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[11:43] I believe we are going to see the dollar push higher. And you and I talked about this a long time ago. I said as the dollar continues to mature, I see it going back up to a $120, way, way up here to these crazy heights
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[19:19] That's when I talk about that next big print coming. That is where anyone who's holding dollars or dollar denominated assets, right? They are going to have their purchasing power reduced significantly, significantly, far more than what we just looked at.
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[7:09] expected inflation bottoms out in February of this year. No coincidence. That's the last month before the Iran war starts. And then it's just it we're just off to the races after that.
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[35:09] I think they're going to fail as well because you've got a backdrop when monetary inflation is running about 8%. And monetary inflation is a big input into mainstream inflation.
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[8:32] we're in a situation where worship could tighten and slam the economy, not slide into a recession, slam the economy into a recession like hit a wall.
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[10:10] if we have a nasty bare market cuz the hyperscaling capex game ends. Um, are they going to buy 10 years? They historically do when they get scared. Is that going to help the mortgage market? Yeah. we could actually see a pickup in the US economy while we have a pretty nasty risk asset market comparatively.
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