New Predictions
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[1:08] I I think the magnitude of the concentration risk that you're getting out of tech um may may end up coming short of expectations. And I I think it's it's very important to realize that everything everyone sold to get into the tech trade is now outperforming for the last, you know, four to five weeks.
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[33:28] I'm using $80 for the whole year I think we're going to be 80 on average in Q4 even if there is peace talks uh and get you know ongoing which could take months to res you know to get all the issues resolved.
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[13:13] when you see declines of this magnitude, you typically see GDP revised negative in time.
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[0:40] I'm expecting no rate hike, although I think they should. And I'm expecting several dissents and a rockus meeting that we won't know about. that there could be as many as five or six descents that it could be a 75 or 66 vote in order to not raise rates.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% as predicted, but there were only 3 dissents (a 9-3 vote), not the 'five or six' dissents claimed. The prediction of no rate hike was correct, but the prediction of 5-6 dissents was significantly off. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html)
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[31:49] the inflation rate which for a long time was between 1 and 1/2 to 2 and 1/2 is now gradually moving upward. And we're going to see it move up over time into a 3 and 1/2 to 4 and 1/2% range.
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[8:09] 40% of the US uh S&P 500 is concentrated in 10 names, and those 10 names are all more or less indexed to the AI trade, uh which is convulsing to an extent uh post-Google earnings, and the market didn't like uh what they saw from a CapEx perspective. So, there's even question marks around uh equity markets.
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[23:38] You can look forward to the next 3 to four months of higher volatility. Um that's that's the trade I'm I'm I'm anticipating for second half of this year.
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[34:14] right now gold is at an interesting uh area. In March, I I indicated that gold uh the 200 day was at 4,100. I think we hit 4103 that day. um it reversed, had a substantial move up and not to new highs, but came back and we're sitting at that horizontal support level right around the 4,100 level. So, I'm watching that, you know, um with enthusiasm because I I think if the dollar were to weaken here, we're going to we're going to see some move in the precious metal... we may be building a bottom there from what I see.
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[18:53] I take a step back, and as a long-term investor with our clients, looking out 5 years from now, um again, let's think about this big picture, and there's no way the US or the rest of the G7 are going to balance their uh books. So, um and on top of that you see these countries and geopolitical tension servicing and the world order fracturing and I think that's just another bull case for for gold.
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[30:18] I'll still make the call that I don't think Bitcoin's going to bottom till around $10,000. It's still has already flunked the test. And when the stock market goes down, particularly we'll see that test in probably the second half of the year, let's say S&P drops 10 to 20%, what's Bitcoin going to do? I fully expect it's continue to go lower.
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[15:04] look how all of a sudden in the last few weeks Bitcoin has started to trade much better. Yeah, right. They they've kind of given up on it here. And suddenly it trades much better. Suddenly the things that were theoretically narrative-wise making it go down are no longer making it go down because everyone's giving up on it.
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Recently Settled
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[0:40] I'm expecting no rate hike, although I think they should. And I'm expecting several dissents and a rockus meeting that we won't know about. that there could be as many as five or six descents that it could be a 75 or 66 vote in order to not raise rates.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% as predicted, but there were only 3 dissents (a 9-3 vote), not the 'five or six' dissents claimed. The prediction of no rate hike was correct, but the prediction of 5-6 dissents was significantly off. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html)
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[10:49] PCE coming out I think it's in two weeks towards the very end of this month is supposed to fall from 4.1 to 3.7 with a core going to I think 32 or 33.
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The BEA's July 30, 2026 release confirmed headline PCE fell from 4.1% to 3.7% and core PCE came in at 3.3%, matching the prediction precisely on all counts. (https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/30/economy/us-pce-inflation-consumer-spending-june)
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[32:38] I think that Argentina is going to do it again.
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Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in extra time in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026, with Ferran Torres scoring the decisive goal. Argentina did not win the tournament, making the prediction wrong. (https://www.npr.org/2026/07/19/nx-s1-5899071/2026-world-cup-fifa-argentina-spain-final-championship)
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[15:04] Oracle to me, everyone's so bearish on it and it's into technical support. Two trend lines converging. This to me could bounce back to 150 within days um on the charts as well.
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The prediction claimed Oracle could bounce back to $150 within days, but the period high was only $132.4 on the last trading day, well short of the $150 target (which would require a ~18.7% gain from $126.41).
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[19:46] But now I think that they've been thrown out to the point where they're dirt cheap with generous uh dividend yields and I do think a stabilization in their businesses that I think are be will be reflected when we see uh earnings coming uh over the next couple weeks.
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The prediction claimed business stabilization in consumer staples would be reflected in earnings over the next couple weeks, and XLP rose 1.9% to close at $85.05 by target date, with a period high of $88.78 (6.3% gain), suggesting the market did respond positively to earnings stabilization, consistent with the bullish stabilization thesis.
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[17:49] the dollar is breaking an uptrend. We just fell through some support levels right at the 100 101 level. So I I would want to see us retake that.
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[16:17] the dollar continues, not fastly, but slowly, to be more and more sold and not bought, uh irregardless of how the dollar index may rebound. We're still seeing less usages of the dollar as world currency
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[8:44] Inflation simplistically has probably peaked. I'm going to put that in my headline for my my August outlook for commodities. I think inflation's peaked at 4.2%. That's CPI.
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[16:51] I think we're moving here into a stackflation scenario. uh persistent inflation especially due to um these these high oil prices the ongoing war the high level of uncertainty the the the international war for commodities which the European zone doesn't have too much of and at the same time continuing the the to expand the money supply yeah that's creating stackflation
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[6:05] if the US is running a 6 to 7% deficit, I just don't even know how a recession is possible. And I feel like bearish investors have really just gotten burned because there's so many bearish signs.
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[31:06] I think we're headed towards something I call the greater depression. It's been inevitable for years. I mean, you could see this coming since the I'd say since the 1960s. But, uh it it's going to result in a significantly lower standard of living for the average American and Canadian.
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