Ed Yardeni Predictions

Economist

Track Ed Yardeni's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

31 forecasts 1 correct 2 wrong 28 pending

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31 forecasts

Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome

Ed Yardeni S&P 500 The S&P 500 will reach 8,400 by the middle of 2027 (pushed back from end of 2026 target)

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[0:00] We're moving the 8,400 uh for the S&P 500 at the end of this year into the middle of next year. Just think it's going to take us a bit longer here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2027-06-30 pending

Ed Yardeni Oil Oil prices will remain higher for longer due to ongoing Middle East geopolitical escalation

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[2:29] I think uh we're going to be in this for for a while and I think that'll continue to create u problems in the oil market. So I'm looking at higher for longer oil prices as a result of that

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2027-09-20 pending

Ed Yardeni Inflation Rate Inflationary pressures from oil will seep into core inflation (ex-energy) through transportation and agricultural costs

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[2:44] that inflationary pressures from the oil market will have more time to seep into the uh inflation uh rate excluding energy. uh you know like diesel prices as energy but that gets into transportation costs and gets into agricultural costs and so on.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2027-03-15 pending

Ed Yardeni Fed Funds Rate The Federal Reserve will deliver two more rate hikes by end of 2026

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[3:10] that in turn has caused the Fed to go uh uh and uh into a tightening cycle. It's uh I think everybody has concluded it's not going to be one and done but there could be two more rate hikes this uh this year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2026-12-31 pending

Ed Yardeni Bank Of Japan Interest Rates The Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate by at least 25 basis points in the near term

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[4:12] they will be raising uh the rate by at least a quarter point.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2026-12-31 pending

Ed Yardeni Japanese Yen The Japanese Yen is bottoming out and may strengthen from current levels

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[4:17] The yen also needs to be weak for the yen carry trade to be to be working and looks as though the yen may be actually bottoming out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2027-03-20 pending

Ed Yardeni Treasury Yields US Treasury yields will remain in the 4-5% range, though the 5% level may not hold

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[6:33] I've been thinking four to 5% is uh where we'll be for a while. Uh, now we're right smack dab on top of that 5% level. And the sus suspense is killing me. Uh, you know, I I hope 5% holds, but uh it's it certainly might not.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2027-09-20 pending

Ed Yardeni S&P 500 The S&P 500 bull market (Roaring 2020s scenario) continues with 70% probability, while a bearish scenario including a debt crisis has risen to 30% probability

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[16:36] my my my roaring 2020 scenario had been 80% subjective probability. Now it's 70%. Uh the bucket that the other scenario where everything that can can go wrong is in there, including a debt crisis, I went from 20 to 30%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2027-09-20 pending

Ed Yardeni AI Stocks AI-related capital expenditure and demand for compute will not slow down materially in the near term

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[36:57] I don't think that the demand for compute is going to suddenly slow down and I think there still the global competition every you know Saudi Arabia wants data centers Chinese are building them in wants data centers. Um so I I don't see that that's really that capital spending is is is going to slow down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-20 2027-09-20 pending

Ed Yardeni S&P 500 The stock market will continue its earnings-driven bull market run (melt up) driven by strong earnings momentum rather than valuation expansion

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[14:39] it's really been uh an earnings driven uh bull market. Which is uh I'd rather have an earnings led melt up than a uh valuation led melt up. Valuation is what uh we call FOMO. And uh earnings led, especially what we have now, is fabulous earnings momentum

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-17 2027-08-17 pending

Ed Yardeni US Economy A US recession will not materialize in the near term, continuing the pattern of resilience despite widespread fears

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[12:17] we've had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that just isn't happening. Now, maybe one of these days something will finally do it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-17 2027-07-30 pending

Ed Yardeni Corporate Earnings Corporate earnings will continue to beat expectations and profit margins will remain strong, supporting elevated stock valuations

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[11:23] The earnings uh picture is very solid. Stocks are actually very cheap if you believe the earnings. investors have are kind of worrying that is now instead of irrational exuberance and valuation multiples... What we now have is irrational exuberance in earnings that analysts are way too optimistic about earnings, but analysts are optimistic because companies keep beating expectations. Profit margins keep being higher than had been expected.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-17 2027-08-17 pending

Ed Yardeni Cybersecurity Stocks Cybersecurity stocks will continue to perform well as AI sophistication increases cyber threats and drives demand

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[15:49] I think that we'll find that the the um the software companies will do fine, especially the cyber security. Cuz the problem with AI is it's uh the more sophisticated it gets, the more it can uh create havoc in terms of cyber security issues. So, those stocks have done very well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-17 2027-08-17 pending

Ed Yardeni AI Stocks Companies that benefit from and use AI (including insurance, financials, healthcare) will outperform as AI drives productivity and profit gains

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[15:30] I would say that on balance you you you bet on the people and companies that benefit from AI. Insurance companies I'm understanding are using it very effectively to do what they do and reduce their their their costs.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-17 2027-08-17 pending

Ed Yardeni Inflation Rate Wage inflation will moderate as AI boosts productivity, keeping the inflation environment benign

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[7:06] wage inflation moderates, but you know, inflation-adjusted wages are directly tied to productivity. So much depends on the productivity story. um uh Fed chair Kevin Warsh believes that AI is already and will continue to boost productivity. I'm I'm in that camp

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-17 2027-02-14 pending

Ed Yardeni Emerging Markets Emerging markets will deliver positive investment returns as growing middle classes drive increased consumption

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[14:04] looking to maybe invest uh not just in the US, but but globally with an emerging markets fund cuz uh these emerging markets are emerging. They're getting bigger middle classes and more more consumers, so that's that's something that one can invest in.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-17 2027-08-17 pending

Ed Yardeni US Economy The U.S. economy will remain resilient through the end of the decade with no recession.

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[1:21] I conclude that the economy is going to remain resilient through the end of the decade. I don't think we're going to have a recession and I think um earnings will continue to surprise to the upside and that'll continue to drive the market higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-11 2029-12-31 pending

Ed Yardeni Inflation Rate Core CPI will remain closer to 3% in the next CPI report, creating a credibility problem for the Fed.

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[24:28] if the next CPI number remains closer to 3%, especially when you take out food and energy, um, then he's got an explaining to do.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-08-11 2026-09-15

Ed Yardeni S&P 500 The S&P 500 will reach 8,250 by the end of 2026

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[18:00] I'm shooting for 8,250 on the S&P 500 by the end of the year and 10,000 by the end of the decade. And uh those have been my targets for a while and so far so good.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-06 2026-12-31 pending

Ed Yardeni Treasury Yields US Treasury bond yields will remain in the 4-5% range for the foreseeable future

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[17:19] I don't think bond yields are rising. I got it. I got them at four to 5% for as far as the I can see. I think we're going to kind of going to stay at normal.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-06 2027-08-06 pending

Ed Yardeni Inflation Rate Inflation will moderate in the near term

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[17:27] I think we have a short-term inflation problem that will in fact moderate.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-06 2027-02-15 pending

Ed Yardeni Labor Market Real wages will trend higher as AI boosts productivity and current inflationary pressures subside

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[28:59] I think that after the um some of this turmoil we have with the tariffs and the war, I think once that's behind us and once AI really kicks in uh more on the productivity side... I'm not concerned about the trend of real wages. I think it's going higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-06 2028-08-06 pending

Ed Yardeni Fed Funds Rate The Fed will raise interest rates in September 2026

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[10:09] now everybody's kind of expecting that it'll happen in September. The problem for him is he's getting kind of close to the midterm elections and the president President Trump's not going to be too happy uh if the Fed raises interest rates u between now and and the midterm elections.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-06 2026-09-30

Ed Yardeni Financial Sector Financials sector will outperform as a beneficiary of AI-related spending

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[33:05] we uh maintained our overweight on financials and industrials as the sectors most likely to benefit from all this spending.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-06 2028-08-06 pending

Ed Yardeni Industrials Sector Industrials sector will outperform as a beneficiary of AI-related spending

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[33:05] we uh maintained our overweight on financials and industrials as the sectors most likely to benefit from all this spending.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-06 2028-08-06 pending

Ed Yardeni Healthcare Sector Healthcare sector will benefit significantly from AI-driven productivity improvements

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[33:12] then we added healthcare as a I think we all know when you walk into a doctor or doctor's office or a hospital how bad how bad the productivity is and AI could really make a big difference there.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-08-06 2028-08-06 pending

Ed Yardeni Gold Gold will trend higher

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[23:37] I think the trend is still higher for gold.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-04-13 2027-04-13 pending

Ed Yardeni Treasury Yields Treasury yields will reach 4.75%

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[22:32] I still think there'll be enough of an inflation shock up ahead here and concerns that it's it's spreading that we will see four and 3/4%. But I would view that as a a tremendous buying opportunity.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-04-13 2027-04-13 pending

Ed Yardeni S&P 500 The S&P 500 correction will be 10-15% total and will bottom out within the next two weeks

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[0:00] And I still think this will turn out to be a 10 to 15% correction. And we're halfway through that and that it it could could happen in this week or or next week.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-04-01 2026-04-14

Ed Yardeni S&P 500 The S&P 500 will reach 7700 by end of 2026

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[17:59] and uh uh you know I'm I'm still using 7700 uh by by the end of u of the of the year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-04-01 2026-12-31 pending

Ed Yardeni International Stocks Emerging markets, Europe, Japan, and Korea will outperform with lower valuations as markets look past the war

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[7:47] I I think the markets are already looking past the war and I yeah I I would think that the emerging markets uh uh Europe, Japan, Korea, you know there's there's still lots of opportunities there with low lower valuation. m multiples. So I I would stick stick with a go global.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-03-25 2027-03-25 pending