Ed Yardeni Predictions
Economist
Track Ed Yardeni's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[14:39] it's really been uh an earnings driven uh bull market. Which is uh I'd rather have an earnings led melt up than a uh valuation led melt up. Valuation is what uh we call FOMO. And uh earnings led, especially what we have now, is fabulous earnings momentum
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[12:17] we've had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that just isn't happening. Now, maybe one of these days something will finally do it.
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[11:23] The earnings uh picture is very solid. Stocks are actually very cheap if you believe the earnings. investors have are kind of worrying that is now instead of irrational exuberance and valuation multiples... What we now have is irrational exuberance in earnings that analysts are way too optimistic about earnings, but analysts are optimistic because companies keep beating expectations. Profit margins keep being higher than had been expected.
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[15:49] I think that we'll find that the the um the software companies will do fine, especially the cyber security. Cuz the problem with AI is it's uh the more sophisticated it gets, the more it can uh create havoc in terms of cyber security issues. So, those stocks have done very well.
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[15:30] I would say that on balance you you you bet on the people and companies that benefit from AI. Insurance companies I'm understanding are using it very effectively to do what they do and reduce their their their costs.
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[7:06] wage inflation moderates, but you know, inflation-adjusted wages are directly tied to productivity. So much depends on the productivity story. um uh Fed chair Kevin Warsh believes that AI is already and will continue to boost productivity. I'm I'm in that camp
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[14:04] looking to maybe invest uh not just in the US, but but globally with an emerging markets fund cuz uh these emerging markets are emerging. They're getting bigger middle classes and more more consumers, so that's that's something that one can invest in.
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[1:21] I conclude that the economy is going to remain resilient through the end of the decade. I don't think we're going to have a recession and I think um earnings will continue to surprise to the upside and that'll continue to drive the market higher.
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[24:28] if the next CPI number remains closer to 3%, especially when you take out food and energy, um, then he's got an explaining to do.
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[18:00] I'm shooting for 8,250 on the S&P 500 by the end of the year and 10,000 by the end of the decade. And uh those have been my targets for a while and so far so good.
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[17:19] I don't think bond yields are rising. I got it. I got them at four to 5% for as far as the I can see. I think we're going to kind of going to stay at normal.
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[17:27] I think we have a short-term inflation problem that will in fact moderate.
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[28:59] I think that after the um some of this turmoil we have with the tariffs and the war, I think once that's behind us and once AI really kicks in uh more on the productivity side... I'm not concerned about the trend of real wages. I think it's going higher.
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[10:09] now everybody's kind of expecting that it'll happen in September. The problem for him is he's getting kind of close to the midterm elections and the president President Trump's not going to be too happy uh if the Fed raises interest rates u between now and and the midterm elections.
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[33:05] we uh maintained our overweight on financials and industrials as the sectors most likely to benefit from all this spending.
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[33:05] we uh maintained our overweight on financials and industrials as the sectors most likely to benefit from all this spending.
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[33:12] then we added healthcare as a I think we all know when you walk into a doctor or doctor's office or a hospital how bad how bad the productivity is and AI could really make a big difference there.
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[23:37] I think the trend is still higher for gold.
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[22:32] I still think there'll be enough of an inflation shock up ahead here and concerns that it's it's spreading that we will see four and 3/4%. But I would view that as a a tremendous buying opportunity.
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[0:00] And I still think this will turn out to be a 10 to 15% correction. And we're halfway through that and that it it could could happen in this week or or next week.
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The prediction claimed a 10-15% correction that would bottom out within two weeks, but the period low of $6474.94 represents only a 1.53% decline from the prediction date price of $6575.32, falling far short of the claimed 10-15% magnitude.
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[17:59] and uh uh you know I'm I'm still using 7700 uh by by the end of u of the of the year
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[7:47] I I think the markets are already looking past the war and I yeah I I would think that the emerging markets uh uh Europe, Japan, Korea, you know there's there's still lots of opportunities there with low lower valuation. m multiples. So I I would stick stick with a go global.
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