Keith McCullough Predictions
CEO and founder of Hedge Eye
Track Keith McCullough's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[0:02] 2027 is 2022, but potentially a lot worse because we have a lot more bubbles and the Fed's going to make a major policy mistake, invert the yield curve, and then have to cut interest rates. I expect parts of the market to be crashing before you get a full-blown one like 2022.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[0:00] Q2 of next year is going to be nasty. That's going to be the big GDP slowdown and that's the one that you want to be watching.
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[10:18] yes, I think the Fed's going to raise rates. They're going to raise them too many times as they always do at the end of a cycle.
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[23:24] I think they're gonna have a panic attack and have panic rate cuts. It might be like 08 where you know the Bernank and the whole nine yards.
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[8:37] I think the 2-year yield is going to keep going up faster than the 10-year yield. So, I think the curve the the Fed is eventually going to invert the yield curve, which is a huge risk going into 2027.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[8:33] there's a lot more upside in the 10-year yield, by the way, and the 2-year yield.
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[13:45] today it says Brent oil the highest it can go at least in the next three weeks is 112.
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[26:10] we're probably going to buy gold again at some point next year right before the Fed stops hiking and goes into panic rate cut mode.
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[19:04] I am short of Canadian dollars uh versus the US dollar. And um you know, this is this this ruffles some feather... it's a short until he stops with this stuff.
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[31:14] the rate of change of GDP growth is going to get cut in half next year. If we're right, it wouldn't be hard to do because we're going to print three and a half to four. So, you know, divide that by two and that's where we're essentially at for the second quarter uh of 2027 on our model.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[22:47] it looks like consumer discretionary is going to start to crash as well. XLY we're short that.
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[9:38] it's up 27 basis points versus the 3.40% headline CPI year-over-year that was just reported. So, that's the next number they're going to get.
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[13:16] And in the first half of the year, we have inflation dropping towards 2.25%. the street's still at like three, you know, for the second quarter. That's way too high.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction that inflation would drop towards 2.25% in H1 2026 was clearly wrong. According to the BLS, the annual CPI inflation rate was 3.5% in June 2026 (the end of H1), down from a peak of 4.2% in May, far above the predicted ~2.25% level. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
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[15:24] we're higher than Wall Street on real GDP growth. You know we're at 3% for year-over-year for the upcoming quarter. That's another acceleration.
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The BEA's advance estimate released April 30, 2026 showed real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026 (year-over-year rate of ~2.66%), well below the predicted 3% year-over-year figure. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-1st-quarter-2026)
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[37:05] is our biggest uh incremental US equity allocation last in December to get set up for this year was the Russell 2000. So we like the Russell 2000. We also like micro caps. IWC is the ticker for that. We much prefer that than the S&P.
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