Michael Pento Predictions
Money Manager
Track Michael Pento's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[22:38] we have not repealed the business cycle. A recession is going to happen in our future. We are going to have a credit crisis.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[18:57] So either scenario, higher rates then. Yes. And then unpack the implications of that.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[35:44] That's the epicenter of the credit bubble. the private credit market...Now it's $2 trillion dollars in private credit. The entire subprime mortgage market was 1.3 trillion. So we're way ahead of it. I mean that alone is enough to to to start to crater banks and crater the re the um the money markets to freeze the repo market to to fracture. That's where it's going to happen.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[36:53] stay tuned. I think if we had this interview in six months from now, I think we'd have a totally different conversation. We don't have to wait that long. And we still have to see like, you know, what the June redemptions are going to look like with some of these credit funds.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[28:47] That's the environment we're in. I I expect it to intensify greatly as we go through time
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[8:07] I think it stays around $100 a barrel, maybe even higher depending on how much of the infrastructure they destroy in Iran in these next three weeks.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed oil would stay around $100 or higher over the three-week window, but the period low hit $80.56 on April 17, dropping well below $100 (a ~28% decline from the prediction date price), meaning oil did not stay around $100 or higher throughout the period.
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[7:41] my base case scenario is that the war goes on for another three or four weeks. President Trump declares victory. He leaves.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
While Trump did declare victory shortly after the prediction (April 7, 2026 ceasefire), the US has not left Iran. As of May 4, 2026, US forces remain heavily engaged with a blockade, Trump announced US Central Command will guide ships through Strait of Hormuz with 15,000 service members, and Trump explicitly said 'we're not leaving right now.' A definitive end to the war is nowhere in sight. (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/03/world/live-news/iran-war-news)
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[23:53] I can confidently predict with with great sorrow and dismay that the returns going forward will not be any clo anywhere close to 7% in real terms.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.