Mike McGlone Predictions

[12:14] So I think we've put in peaks this year in gold and silver that might last years and if history's a guide, decades.

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[19:20] I fully expect when you see diesel up 160% on a one-year basis, by this time next year, it could easily be down 40%. Easily. That's just a normal cycle from that high.

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[24:25] I fully think it is overdoing it. Just the fact right now, Maggie, we are priced there 70% chance that um on October 28th that the chairman of the Federal Reserve who was hired by Mr. Trump to cut rates that they might hike rates a week before the u midterms is a shocker. I think I think what's going to happen is the the next big moves from the Fed will be a series of cuts

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[14:12] I'm still not on that gold bullish camp. I'm still worried it's going to go lower, but all metals like even copper starting to break down.

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[11:21] I think gold is tilted over to a bare market on the back of what Bitcoin did last year. Remember how bullish everybody was a year ago in Bitcoin? Same thing in gold. And like I mentioned, it's reached a pretty significant apex in my view.

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[14:39] I've been calling copper an accident waiting to happen. The question is is the accident starting?

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[20:27] copper breaking down usually coincides with the stock market breaking down... it breaks down always means S&P 500's going down too.

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[16:43] I think it will come down sharply. To me, it's not an if. Everybody gets that. It's a question because if it stays up and continues to go up, it breaks stuff.

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[18:45] I don't really know how high crude is going to go. I think 100 in the US is a decent peak.

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[3:49] this is going to be a major potential sweep against Republicans... And what does it mean for markets? Bottom line, that's always what it means for markets. For me, as neutral as possible. And my thought is this is going to be very contentious midterm election year. last two midterm election years, markets were down 2018 2022 in mid um in um S&P 500 total return.

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[27:23] I see a scenario like that um happening and that's why I'm completely worried I would say very worried about touching the stock market and I just look at that 5% bond treasuries is a place to be.

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[32:12] this might all pan out by the end of the year and midterms can be a good trigger.

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[28:23] one of the best leading indicators for everything I've used for the last decade or so is Bitcoin and it's just broke up to a decent resistance level and I think it's heading back downward. So I'm looking that as a decent leading indicator. If it stays below 80, which was key resistance, and just goes back down to the trend, it might be what led everything up is leading everything back down.

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[28:49] Abs. Absolutely. Um delayed, extended, and it'll be more extreme now. So, it's similar to 2008. We've had this unusual spike in crude oil and energy because of the decision of one man to invade Iran... That's created pretty severe inflation, but it's short-term.

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[23:54] This is where I tilt over to T-bonds at right now 5.34%. I've been wrong in that for a while... And to me, that's the next big trade.

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[18:19] I fully expect they're going to double their production in a year they're already up 30% from a year ago

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[14:18] If it gets back to a normal long-term moving average, it's going to $3,000 an ounce. That's just the way it is. To get to 5,000 take something very profound would be very worrisome. So that's why look, it's hovering at 4,000.

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[22:54] crude oil going back to its normal mean 70 or lower. Trump fix figures it out and we have a normal bit normal volatility pickup and a normal correction in the stock market that always happens, not always, but almost is very common in midterm election years. That's a post-inflation deflation trade.

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[30:18] I'll still make the call that I don't think Bitcoin's going to bottom till around $10,000. It's still has already flunked the test. And when the stock market goes down, particularly we'll see that test in probably the second half of the year, let's say S&P drops 10 to 20%, what's Bitcoin going to do? I fully expect it's continue to go lower.

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[23:38] You can look forward to the next 3 to four months of higher volatility. Um that's that's the trade I'm I'm I'm anticipating for second half of this year.

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[16:54] the next trade for copper best next big risk is it mean reverts pops down to five and maybe even four. But can it sustain above 650? That would be wonderful if it does because it means the whole system is elevated.

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[11:36] I'm worried that you just get a little bit of volatility in the stock market and we're going to look back and say, 'Yeah, it was like 1980 and 2011. Those were the highs.' Yeah,

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[1:46] I think the next move from the Fed will be a series of 50 basis point cuts and a normal reversion cycle in the stock market, which means recession.

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[13:04] I fully expect crude oil to gravitate towards 70. 70 has been the absolute high value price for 20 years. So it's basically the the apex of the bell curve and then do a normal rotation back down towards 40.

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[23:13] if we start ticking down the stock market, which is normal in this type of cycle, that's a big trade. And Treasuries are the place to be the place to start. And that's where I think we're seeing warnings from things like Bitcoin going down and gold failing and even the Cosby blowing over is um it's only July. And we haven't got through August yet. Just wait till we get through to closer to the midterms.

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[31:37] The main thing I think is mispriced is long bonds at 5.2%. I think by the end of the year they'll be much lower.

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[28:51] 4,100 is nothing. Like I said, it's got to get at least above 4,500 just to show potential. It's not a bear market.

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[30:48] January natural gas peaked at 565 when in in in March after the US attack on Iran and after the coldest winter in 2 years, right? 10 years, but the second coldest winter. Right now, it just got in the four. So, I look at this, okay, that's an opportunity... Four in January natural gas and Jan matters cuz it's the apex of the bell curve... I fully expect that to pop up near five.

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[0:00] soybeans near twelve are probably going lower

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[23:42] Bitcoin's broken down. Uh silver's broken down. Gold's broken down after three key rallies... I think it's already happened in cryptos. I think it's already happened in precious metals.

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[8:44] Inflation simplistically has probably peaked. I'm going to put that in my headline for my my August outlook for commodities. I think inflation's peaked at 4.2%. That's CPI.

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[1:49] I think ultimately the bottom doesn't really come in the 3500. I think it's stuck in a range for years if history is a guide.

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[9:18] I think by the end of the year it's going to just be a big red candle in stock market following what's guiding us in cryptos following the lessons of volatility and massive speculation with all this, you know, all these IPOs and things.

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[15:38] That 4.2% will probably be a peak. David I remember well it was almost it was July of 2008 inflation's CPI peaked at 5.6%... The key thing I like to point out is since that bottom in crude oil and so in CPI in 2009 at minus 2% we've bottomed around that level or zero three times. I think we're going to do it again by this time next year.

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[19:53] I fully expect that December crude oil contract which is the top and open interest will be front month um around midterms is around $80 a barrel right now to be closer to 50.

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[24:38] I think the next key supports around 50,000. I doubt it stays above 80. I think it's going to 10. That's Bitcoin.

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[25:24] It flip-ins Ethereum and to me it's a matter I think it'll be this year. I think it's a matter of time that trend continues and it flippins Bitcoin to become the number one crypto

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[31:39] copper probably easily towards $4 a pound if this normal happens. This is the normal reversion.

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[31:43] Silver below 50 normal reversion. I mean, it was just still well above where it was a year or two ago.

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[23:28] Best I think the final my focus remains. US Treasuries might grab alpha this year. haven't been right yet, but that 5% long bond I think is going to just we're going to look back and say yeah was your last chance.

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[22:15] my prediction is by the end of the year, everything will be down following Bitcoin, following precious metals, bond yields lower

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[25:24] do you think gold, it sounds like you think gold has peaked? Yeah. And if it does, are we in in more of a fluid situation where we'll see it move up and down or is this sort of peaked and we're going to face another one of these decades long period where we're sideways? Exactly. You you nailed it. The ladder is exactly way to do it. So, typically the way it works in gold and silver, we should expect years of bad performance after a period like this of way of outperformance.

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[17:00] one of my my key theme at the beginning of the year is stock market volatility is just too low compared to the volatility spiking we're seeing in crude oil and gold. We've never had gold like I mentioned earlier volatility run at two times that of the S&P 500 for long. Usually stock market volatility picks up.

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[27:57] metals look very much like cryptos last year. Now if you mentioned something the crypto bearish the crypto people last year they looked at me like three heads and since you know Bitcoin's dropped what almost 50% from the peak um not just one now that's just how things work

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[11:16] So copper is on my above six you showed right there is on my potentially prudent short list because it is stuck.

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[25:54] I think gold is likely to trade between 3,000 and 6,000 for a decade.

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[30:29] The 10-year Treasury yield 4.3%. Uh, what's more likely? 4% or 5%. 3.9.

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[30:46] Inflation at 3.5 by the end of the year or three? Uh, two.

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[0:11] I think this is the year I finally get to my $40 barrel call in crude oil.

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[0:15] I'm not a fan of gold. I think initially goes to 4,000. That I haven't said that in decades. I fully expect silver to go back to near 50 and gold initially to buy to drop down to 4,000.

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[0:18] I fully expect silver to go back to near 50 and gold initially to buy to drop down to 4,000.

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[0:06] Like this is the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since 2000.

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[17:19] I fully expect this number to be close to to zero by this year, if not next year.

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[0:01] I think Bitcoin the first stop is around 50,000. It would drop a zero. The first stop was around 50,000. I think it's going to 10,000.

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[1:26] I think it's about time we're going to get a pretty significant reversion next year in stock market bond yields to go lower

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[15:28] I think next year is going to be a down year for the total return. I don't know how much maybe reverting towards 5,000 S&P 500.

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[16:05] I think we're going to head towards that 10 note yield in China which is 1.85%. Currently in US is about 4.15%.

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[4:41] it can either drop easily back a third which would be around 3500 and to go from here to 5,000 anytime soon is um would be you know I'm already pointing out how historically stretched it is now would just be um unprecedented.

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[0:19] I think Bitcoin's at risk of losing a zero, dropping 90%, the whole rest of the space dropping 95, mostly maybe 99%.

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[10:16] So I think that ratio is going back to 100 because I see gold heading to 4,000.

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[10:32] And I think crude oil is going back to 40.

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[21:09] well here's my base case I started out the year I think this is going to be a down year for the stock market in the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since the start of um since 2000.

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[13:50] I think we're in a bare market in US stock market. It's early days. I think it'd be we'd be delightful if we end this this year not down 20% or more.

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[8:56] we do expect to be 4.2%. Anowong expect to be 5% next year. The bottom line is you look at that chart looks like a bull flag. It looks like it's heading to 6%. Historically it's always gone to 6% after bonding is low as it was last year around 3.2 or so.

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[11:27] looked like crude oil to me was going to head to $40 a barrel. Now we have a good reason to do that.

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[31:21] So g back down to 10,000 is still I think the major risk potential for Bitcoin if it can stay above these levels for just a couple more weeks. I might have to kill that view.

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