Michael Howell Predictions
Managing Director of GL Indexes
Track Michael Howell's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[0:55] global liquidity is about to get even tighter still, and it's about to be a wrecking ball for markets to come.
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[14:11] I think perceptions of a much stronger dollar are likely uh a very likely. Uh the Walsh has indicated he wants the markets to tighten, and that really means a stronger dollar and rising yields or a steepening curve, for sure.
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[16:06] We think normal GDP growth is likely set for a clip of between 6-7% going forward. Maybe a tad higher than that, but you know, the economy is on a roll at the moment and inflation clearly is a nagging problem. But that is going to mean that you're looking at something like a target of about 6% on the long on the long bond or the 10-year on the 10-year bond.
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[27:04] my view through this year, I mean rightly or wrongly, uh we're halfway through is that what you'd see from Wall Street in 2026 would broadly speaking be a range-bound market. There'd be volatility, uh but it would really go sideways because the authorities wouldn't be tightening that aggressively. Uh and I think that's still the case. But, I think as we roll the clock on, uh the odds are that liquidity conditions are going to tighten more and more and more. Uh and that that projection uh becomes, you know, maybe challenged by year end or into '27.
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[21:43] Bitcoin is a is a very good barometer of US liquidity conditions. It tends to react very closely to the fact global liquidity, predominantly Fed liquidity. So, if Fed liquidity is slowing down, you'd expect uh Bitcoin to suffer, and it it it is suffering.
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[30:31] Oil is weak near term, sure. I'll come quietly. That was not a great surprise, but it's the medium term that matters. And if you put this into context... I would not discount higher oil prices in the medium term.
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[31:30] I would not discount higher commodity prices in the medium term cuz I think that's the background we're looking at. We're looking at economic strength. And this sort of deglobalization uh process, which is underway... there's got to be a lot more uh investment spending worldwide.
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[19:00] there's an underlying inflation problem... the dotted line is the correct number. It may be coming down, but it's not coming down fast and so underlying inflation pressures are clearly there and therefore the Federal Reserve has got to act.
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[29:28] We think probably Well, I mean, maybe not unreasonably that gold is going to be elevated in the medium term because of all this debasement, either current or future. And therefore, let's take as a minimum $4,000 an ounce of gold.
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[32:59] I think there's probably underlying momentum that may keep uh the US out of recession uh because the underlying trend in the economy be so good.
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[2:09] what comes next is probably a more ugly phase. So you're likely to see a sort of turbulent phase where liquidity gets drained more quickly and the direction of markets is more likely down.
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[40:50] Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months
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[38:09] energy stocks to my mind look pretty attractive right now. Uh resource stocks, gold miners probably a decent area to be in.
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[26:19] as recently as probably mid to late January, the consensus trade right across markets was that ye uh yield curves were going to steepen throughout 2026. Our view has been that they would begin to flatten from about mid year and okay, they're poised now. We could be wrong, but it looks as if you're getting that turn and that turn is all about the liquidity cycle.
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[3:57] Euro zone the in the uh the basic prediction is that rates will be uh or on an incline now. uh there's more likely to be tightening in the Euro zone.
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[20:13] So what that's telling us is that 2026 should be a good year for the economy.
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[22:54] we're talking at 4% inflation
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[36:56] my view, which I've been saying for some months now, is that 2026 is likely at best to be a rangebound market for the S&P
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