Thomas Hayes Predictions

[4:14] we're we're moving down the spectrum towards where I where I'd expected we'd be towards the end of the year, which is more more likely a cut. Uh certainly no hikes and uh and whether it's in uh at the you know before the calendar turns or in the first quarter is kind of immaterial.

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[10:08] I would continue to play despite the short-term counter trend move. I would continue to play weaker dollar over the coming couple of years and stronger yen.

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[9:55] the yen will either naturally or through some intervention stabilize and or actually appreciate relative to the US dollar over the next couple of years.

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[0:00] I would be a seller of this move. It's a dead cat bounce. And that's why you see these waterfalls like you saw in 2000, like you saw in 2022 where retail keeps buying the dip based on recency bias. And these these waterfalls tend to persist for more than just a few weeks.

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[13:46] I think you're going to see into, you know, maybe the third, four week uh third, fourth week, week of August, uh this deadcat bounce. But retail investors are now chasing this short covering move off the lows 20 30% on stocks that had fallen, you know, in the month of July alone, 30 to some in some cases 55 60%.

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[21:02] I think not only do you want to bet on defensives like consumer staples, I also believe you want to bet on defensives like consumer discretionary because consumer confidence is finally starting to bounce off multi-decade and in some cases all-time lows that were reached just a few months ago.

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[21:43] consumer discretionary because the consumer has been counted out and you never want to bet against the US consumer when they have a job and with 4% unemployment rate even though job growth is slowing they do have jobs and their consumer confidence is turning up

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[13:31] I think as we what people are mistaken for a rally in semiconductors in memory number one none of them have made new highs by the way most of them if you look at the charts which I sent you about 50 of them uh it's a dead cat bounce And I think what you're going to see, this is normal seasonality.

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[33:17] I'm of the camp that the answer will be yes. But it will take another 18 to 24 months. And there will be a point in time during that period where people stop believing that the return will come before the bill comes due and that will be the time to buy the AI trade

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[44:28] You cannot make the case if I lend on a 2026 vintage Nvidia GPU that in seven years it's going to be worth more than it's worth today and I'm going to get my money back. Like, you can't, you know, you cannot, they're going to sell that story, but but it ain't going to be true. I can tell you that 100%. Bet the bank on it.

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[10:14] We're not bearish on this on the space. uh we just think there's going to be a better opportunity to buy it in the summer or in the fall uh buy the AI trade. We're probably in the fourth or fifth inning of what will be a nine inning to overtime innings game.

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[19:20] I think that over the next 12 months, assuming the war is ended, not ended, but like some type of fugazi deal uh or real deal in the next couple of weeks that gives him the runway by the end of the year to probably do a cut before the end of this year, which is non-consensus. And if you want to, you know, place a a high high return bet on those gambling poly markets or whatever you're referring to, that's probably the one to do. Everyone's betting on a hike. They'll probably wind up with a cut

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[19:54] he'll follow through again probably next year as well. And I don't think he'll have much more room to do a lot more than that regardless of how much uh liquidity he stops up by selling bonds on the open market.

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[29:57] If you take defensive sectors, David, uh they are at a record low waiting in the S&P 500. Uh going all the way back 25 years. What does that mean? It means staples. It means healthcare. Means utilities. It's dropped from 35% waiting in the S&P down to 16%

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[32:10] I think Alibaba is the cheapest way to play AI globally. I think you if you're betting on a weak dollar, you want that emerging markets uh exposure. I think Baba's the way to play it.

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[33:54] We think this could be a $150 stock. The last time they had operating margins like they're targeting in 27 and 28, it was $150 stock. It's still trading at 50 or 60 bucks.

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[36:33] I think in next quarter's earnings call when everyone realized a lot of this earnings power in Q1 was related to paper gains. Uh in Q2, they're going to more carefully assess uh operating gains and and not see any because it's just too early to get that return on investment. I think that's when you're going to get your your break in price.

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[12:40] Now it's back closer to 100, probably going to 60 before it goes back to 200.

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[8:05] MAG 7 would underperform as the carry trade unwound.

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[10:39] I don't think we're going to get that pronounced of a draw down or average draw down this year because you do have uh a level of fiscal stimulus coming through in the form of tax returns jumping 40 50% uh you know 50 some odd billion dollars going in consumer's pockets and you are in an easing cycle

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[20:54] the weak dollar is going to be a theme for the next two years.

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[24:11] sometime between now and then, um, you're going to have an opportunity to buy these businesses at better prices, much better prices. We think probably towards the fall of this year

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[24:26] We're strong through April, very weak into the election, recovery year end.

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[17:28] when I bought it at 135, I underwrote it for $300 based on free cash flow and deliveries over the next five years.

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[0:03] Now everyone wants it at $39. And I think it's going to make the taxpayer a tremendous amount of money over the next five years.

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[8:14] That's just getting started. Alibaba is going to continue to press higher.

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[9:25] So uh they got two tailwinds. One is advanced chip development uh at their fabs uh uh GPUs and three their uh two their legacy CPU business has started to recover aggressively. So that's already up double uh plus from the lows and uh I think it could double again over the next few years

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[11:12] BABA tripling off almost tripling off the lows, we think that can double again.

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[11:21] com stock resources uh, double off the lows, we think that can double again.

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[10:45] I think we've got to go at least two. And I think that's all we're going to get. Uh we should probably do 75 to 100 basis points.

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[25:43] One of the names that we have around 78 bucks is Comtock Resources. Uh Jerry Jones owns the majority of the stock, 70 plus% of the stock. We're co-investors with him. Somewhere around $8 a share. It went up to $30 a share. It's now at $17. We're in the market buying more. it's going to 50 over the next two to three years.

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[26:11] GenerRack has been a huge hit for us. Um uh started buying that thing below 100, shot up to 190, corrected, now it's back uh knocking on the door of 200. That probably goes to 250 300 plus.

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[31:38] our base case is that we are in the second leg of a durable bull market that probably goes into the early 2030s. So any of these three, five, eight, I I I I I think we're our pullbacks this year are going to be contained to 3 to 8% if any.

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[0:07] I think it'll not only outperform for the second half of the year, I think it'll outperform for the second half of the decade.

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[15:11] I think on that basis and they've they've anticipated 30 to 70 basis points reduction in the 10-year yield once that's implemented that should be implemented sometime late this summer. uh that would bring the 10-year yield down to 350, 370

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[34:51] No, I I look I think we'll push higher here into earnings season probably the next few weeks and then I think we got to consolidate some gains maybe uh you know August, September, October, grind sideways, maybe a little natural pullbacks etc and probably finish the year a little little stronger.

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