Thomas Hayes Predictions

Managing Member of Great Hill Capital

Track Thomas Hayes's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

26 forecasts 80% accuracy 4 correct 1 wrong 21 pending
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26 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Thomas Hayes AI Stocks There will be a better opportunity to buy AI stocks in the summer or fall of 2026 at lower prices
See quote
[10:14] We're not bearish on this on the space. uh we just think there's going to be a better opportunity to buy it in the summer or in the fall uh buy the AI trade. We're probably in the fourth or fifth inning of what will be a nine inning to overtime innings game.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-02 2026-11-30 pending
Thomas Hayes Fed Funds Rate The Fed will cut interest rates before the end of 2026, contrary to market consensus which expects a hike
See quote
[19:20] I think that over the next 12 months, assuming the war is ended, not ended, but like some type of fugazi deal uh or real deal in the next couple of weeks that gives him the runway by the end of the year to probably do a cut before the end of this year, which is non-consensus. And if you want to, you know, place a a high high return bet on those gambling poly markets or whatever you're referring to, that's probably the one to do. Everyone's betting on a hike. They'll probably wind up with a cut

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-02 2026-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes Fed Funds Rate The Fed will follow through with another rate cut in 2027, but will have limited room for further cuts
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[19:54] he'll follow through again probably next year as well. And I don't think he'll have much more room to do a lot more than that regardless of how much uh liquidity he stops up by selling bonds on the open market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-02 2027-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes Defensive Stocks Defensive sectors (staples, healthcare, utilities) will outperform as they recover from record-low S&P weightings
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[29:57] If you take defensive sectors, David, uh they are at a record low waiting in the S&P 500. Uh going all the way back 25 years. What does that mean? It means staples. It means healthcare. Means utilities. It's dropped from 35% waiting in the S&P down to 16%

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-02 2027-06-02 pending
Thomas Hayes Alibaba Alibaba will outperform as the cheapest way to play AI globally and benefit from a weak dollar
See quote
[32:10] I think Alibaba is the cheapest way to play AI globally. I think you if you're betting on a weak dollar, you want that emerging markets uh exposure. I think Baba's the way to play it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-02 2027-06-02 pending
Thomas Hayes Advanced Auto Parts Advanced Auto Parts will reach $150 per share, roughly tripling from its current price of $50-60
See quote
[33:54] We think this could be a $150 stock. The last time they had operating margins like they're targeting in 27 and 28, it was $150 stock. It's still trading at 50 or 60 bucks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-02 2028-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes Magnificent Seven Mag 7 / hyperscaler stocks will break lower after Q2 earnings when investors realize earnings gains were paper mark-to-market gains rather than operating improvement
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[36:33] I think in next quarter's earnings call when everyone realized a lot of this earnings power in Q1 was related to paper gains. Uh in Q2, they're going to more carefully assess uh operating gains and and not see any because it's just too early to get that return on investment. I think that's when you're going to get your your break in price.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-02 2026-09-30 pending
Thomas Hayes Intel Intel stock will fall to around $60 before eventually recovering to $200
See quote
[12:40] Now it's back closer to 100, probably going to 60 before it goes back to 200.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-02 2027-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes Magnificent Seven MAG 7 will underperform as the carry trade unwinds in 2025
See quote
[8:05] MAG 7 would underperform as the carry trade unwound.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-22 2026-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes S&P 500 S&P 500 will not experience the typical 18.3% drawdown seen in midterm election years due to fiscal stimulus and easing cycle
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[10:39] I don't think we're going to get that pronounced of a draw down or average draw down this year because you do have uh a level of fiscal stimulus coming through in the form of tax returns jumping 40 50% uh you know 50 some odd billion dollars going in consumer's pockets and you are in an easing cycle

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-22 2026-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes US Dollar The US Dollar will weaken over the next two years
See quote
[20:54] the weak dollar is going to be a theme for the next two years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-22 2028-01-22 pending
Thomas Hayes Magnificent Seven MAG 7 stocks will reach much better buying prices by fall 2026
See quote
[24:11] sometime between now and then, um, you're going to have an opportunity to buy these businesses at better prices, much better prices. We think probably towards the fall of this year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-22 2026-09-22 pending
Thomas Hayes S&P 500 S&P 500 will be strong through April 2026, very weak into the election, then recover by year end
See quote
[24:26] We're strong through April, very weak into the election, recovery year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-22 2026-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes Boeing Boeing will reach $300 per share over the next five years
See quote
[17:28] when I bought it at 135, I underwrote it for $300 based on free cash flow and deliveries over the next five years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-22 2031-01-22 pending
Thomas Hayes Intel Intel will make the taxpayer a tremendous amount of money over the next five years
See quote
[0:03] Now everyone wants it at $39. And I think it's going to make the taxpayer a tremendous amount of money over the next five years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-27 2030-10-27

The prediction claimed Intel would make taxpayers 'a tremendous amount of money' over five years, which is a bullish claim requiring substantial gains; while the period high of $54.60 represents a 38.1% gain from the $39.54 prediction price (exceeding any reasonable interpretation of 'tremendous'), the prediction's vague qualitative language ('tremendous amount') cannot be objectively verified against specific numerical targets, but the 38.1% peak gain and 11.3% target date close both support a bullish outcome that aligns with the prediction's direction and spirit.
Thomas Hayes Alibaba Alibaba is going to continue to press higher
See quote
[8:14] That's just getting started. Alibaba is going to continue to press higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-27 2026-10-27 pending
Thomas Hayes Intel Intel could double again over the next few years
See quote
[9:25] So uh they got two tailwinds. One is advanced chip development uh at their fabs uh uh GPUs and three their uh two their legacy CPU business has started to recover aggressively. So that's already up double uh plus from the lows and uh I think it could double again over the next few years

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-27 2027-10-27 pending
Thomas Hayes Alibaba Alibaba can double again
See quote
[11:12] BABA tripling off almost tripling off the lows, we think that can double again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-27 2027-10-27 pending
Thomas Hayes Comstock Resources Comstock Resources can double again
See quote
[11:21] com stock resources uh, double off the lows, we think that can double again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-27 2027-10-27 pending
Thomas Hayes Fed Funds Rate The Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points (two 25 basis point cuts) for the rest of 2025, with an optimal range of 75-100 basis points total.
See quote
[10:45] I think we've got to go at least two. And I think that's all we're going to get. Uh we should probably do 75 to 100 basis points.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-08-06 2025-12-31

The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 (September, November, December), each by 25 basis points, totaling 75 basis points. This satisfies the prediction's minimum of 'at least two cuts' (50 bps) and lands squarely within the stated optimal range of 75–100 bps. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
Thomas Hayes Comstock Resources Comstock Resources will reach $50 per share over the next two to three years.
See quote
[25:43] One of the names that we have around 78 bucks is Comtock Resources. Uh Jerry Jones owns the majority of the stock, 70 plus% of the stock. We're co-investors with him. Somewhere around $8 a share. It went up to $30 a share. It's now at $17. We're in the market buying more. it's going to 50 over the next two to three years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-08-06 2028-08-06 pending
Thomas Hayes Generac Generac will reach $250-300+ per share.
See quote
[26:11] GenerRack has been a huge hit for us. Um uh started buying that thing below 100, shot up to 190, corrected, now it's back uh knocking on the door of 200. That probably goes to 250 300 plus.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-08-06 2026-08-06

The prediction claimed GNRC would reach $250-300+, and the period high of $269.58 on 2026-05-07 exceeded the lower bound of $250, confirming the target was reached during the prediction window.
Thomas Hayes S&P 500 The S&P 500 bull market will continue into the early 2030s with any pullbacks in 2025 contained to 3-8%.
See quote
[31:38] our base case is that we are in the second leg of a durable bull market that probably goes into the early 2030s. So any of these three, five, eight, I I I I I think we're our pullbacks this year are going to be contained to 3 to 8% if any.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-08-06 2032-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes Russell 2000 The Russell 2000 will outperform for the second half of 2025 and the second half of the decade (through 2030).
See quote
[0:07] I think it'll not only outperform for the second half of the year, I think it'll outperform for the second half of the decade.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-07-02 2030-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes 10-Year Treasury Yield The 10-year Treasury yield will decline to 3.50%-3.70% by late summer 2025.
See quote
[15:11] I think on that basis and they've they've anticipated 30 to 70 basis points reduction in the 10-year yield once that's implemented that should be implemented sometime late this summer. uh that would bring the 10-year yield down to 350, 370

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-07-02 2025-09-21

The prediction claimed the 10-year yield would decline to 3.50%-3.70% (a 59-70 basis point drop from 4.29%), and the period low of 3.99% on 2025-09-17 represents a 30 basis point decline, falling short of the claimed 3.50%-3.70% target range.
Thomas Hayes S&P 500 The S&P 500 will push higher through earnings season in the next few weeks, then consolidate gains through August-October, and finish the year stronger.
See quote
[34:51] No, I I look I think we'll push higher here into earnings season probably the next few weeks and then I think we got to consolidate some gains maybe uh you know August, September, October, grind sideways, maybe a little natural pullbacks etc and probably finish the year a little little stronger.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-07-02 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'push higher through earnings season' (achieved with period high of $6945.77, up 11.5% from prediction price of $6227.42), then 'consolidate gains through August-October' (the index did consolidate and grind sideways during this period), and 'finish the year stronger' (closed at $6845.5 on 12/31, up 9.9% from prediction date), so all three specific claims were validated by the price action.