Peter Schiff Predictions

[1:39] where they're headed because they're going much higher. This is not the end of this move. Uh we're probably closer to the beginning.

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[3:55] we could be looking at 9% mortgage rates maybe by the first quarter of next year.

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[4:13] the only thing that's going to enable homes to be purchased will be a dramatic decline in prices, maybe 30 to 50% decline in real estate prices nationwide, which would be as big if not bigger than the drop that we had uh you know in 2007 2008

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[3:27] We're now 6 years into what I think is now a you major uh bare market, a secular bare market that will last at least half as long as the bull market. So maybe 20 years and we're 6 years into it.

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[11:31] I don't think the risk of a default is zero. I don't know exactly how high it is, but I think there's a reasonable probability that the government will default. Now, when I say the US Treasury is going to default, it doesn't mean that you get nothing... it's more more likely to be a restructuring where they say, Okay, you get 50 cents on the dollar.

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[14:05] But they're going to keep on going down. We're we're nowhere near the bottom of the bond market. So, the losses are just going to compound.

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[16:53] People should be buying gold... the metals are still reacting or the traders are reacting to rising bond yields as if this is bearish for gold and silver. It's the most bullish thing that could happen to gold and silver because what these rising bond yields show is that bond prices are collapsing.

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[25:01] consumers expect 4% inflation. They're going to get something much higher than that. Uh so, you know, the consumers are more accurate than the Fed in their inflation forecast, but they're still, you know, missing it by by quite a bit.

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[35:30] Inflation is going to be rising faster than rates. So real rates are going to be falling the entire time that nominal rates are rising.

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[27:36] What the Fed is going to start doing at some point is ramping up its purchase of longerterm treasuries to prevent precisely what I said will happen from happening. Because as rates really go up, Treasury yields, you know, go to 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, right? Somewhere along there, the the government simply cannot afford to service the debt. They and they can't find buyers for it. So the Fed just steps up, unfortunately, as the buyer of only resort and prints up a bunch of money to buy the bonds that nobody else wants

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[33:53] I expect the dollar to start losing value faster than a lot of other currencies uh because of the enormous debt that we have and because I do expect the dollar to lose its reserve status

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[32:53] rates are going to go up. Uh they're going to go a lot higher.

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[18:55] But in a few years we could be spending three or 4 trillion a year on interest on the national debt. So all of that is going to add to the annual budget deficit. So now that you're talking about 5 $6 trillion a year budget deficits, well that means you know the national debt goes from 50 trillion to 60 trillion in 2 years.

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[22:25] I think the current uh estimate of how much benefits would have to be reduced, and I'm sure this is optimistic, they probably have to be reduced more, but I think 30% across the board cut in in in uh in benefits, unless they really raise the taxes.

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[9:34] that's why you're going to get the Republicans losing the House and the Senate. Uh because uh people are going to vote their pocketbooks.

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[25:33] all this stuff is going to be a lot more expensive if the stuff that you are buying today costs 10% more or 20% more in a year.

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[0:12] eventually the dollar is going to collapse under its own weight.

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[2:06] What will eventually work to strengthen the yen is going to be higher rates in Japan and um and and a weaker dollar.

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[25:02] So if it took 40 years from the for the yields to get from 16% to 0%, it could probably take 10 years to go from 0% back up to 16%. And we're already 6 years into it. So, there may not be that many more. We the bottom could drop out of the bond market. We could have a crash in the bond market. Yields could just go through the roof.

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[23:55] inflation is going to keep getting worse. It's not it's not going to go down

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[30:09] I think that the Republicans are going to lose for sure they're going to lose the House. Uh but, you know, they're they could easily lose the Senate, too.

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[32:31] Well, I think that the spending is really going to go up and we're going to have even bigger deficits

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[39:28] Last year, China had a record trade surplus, and this year, they're going to beat that record.

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[2:31] I think that you know the the the whole uh micro or strategy and uh the preferred I think that whole house of cards is in the process of collapsing you know in real time right right in front of us

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[5:03] I don't believe that Worsh is going to make that choice. I think when it comes down to it and his back is to the wall and he's asked to choose between the lesser of those two evils, he's going to do what everybody else has done and he's going to choose inflation.

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[6:03] bonds are getting ready for another breakdown, meaning another move up in rates, I think that's coming. And so maybe we get the 10ear to break away from 4 and a.5% and then move up towards 5%

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[6:59] the 30-year to move up you know more 5 6%ish up there.

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[9:20] By next year, it's going to be two trillion. And again, it's not going to stop at two trillion. It's going to keep on going up and up

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[42:09] I think gold uh is going to be repriced much higher. I think commodity prices, emerging markets are going to be

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[31:06] if you don't have any gold I you should definitely be buying it you know and if you don't have enough gold you should be buying more. But, you know, I think the pullback that we've had that started around the time that the war started with Iran... it was a buy the rumor, sell the fact

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[33:46] Silver is at $65. They're like, 'Oh, look. It's it was $120 and it it crashed to $65. You see, it's a bad investment.' $65. If somebody told you two years ago that silver would be $65 today, they wouldn't even believe you... uh $200 silver.

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[0:18] I think the US dollar is going to lose a lot of value relative to other currencies. And I I'm just, you know, I'm playing for the endgame.

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[37:09] And that's why the Democrats are going to win in 2028 because the economy will be worse in 2028 than it was in 2024.

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[39:05] I think we've been in a inflationary, you know, depression kind of environment... stagflationary depression is locked in.

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[5:15] I think this whole thing is imploding. And once this one goes, it's going to be like domino. You know, the Bitcoin bubble and the crypto bubble, and now, you know, more are going to go.

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[17:40] but overall, I think that the dollar is going to weaken because traders are focused more on nominal rates. The Fed is going to hike rates. They've gone from forecasting rate cuts to now two or three more hikes between now and the end of the year. But, these are quarter point rate hikes. 75 basis point hike is not going to do anything to slow the inflation train.

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[14:08] we're going to have inflation because that's how we pay for government. And the Fed is going to enable it under Walsh just the way it's enabled it under his predecessors. Uh, the gold market, the silver market don't get that yet. They will.

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[25:17] No, he can't shrink the balance sheet. He's going to expand the balance sheet. In fact, it expanded last week. If he wants to shrink it, why isn't he shrinking it right now?

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[37:42] I think they're going to end up beating the S&P on the year. I think they'll end up beating the Nasdaq on the year, too. So, we'll see how you know, how the rest of the year plays out.

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[2:10] I think yields are going a lot higher on the longer end in particular. And eventually the stock market is going to notice that and you're going to start to see some weakness there.

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[2:22] And then I think gold is going to break out of this consolidation because investors have been focusing on the nominal increase in yields as if somehow that is a negative for gold. It's not.

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[3:57] we're going to be looking at a sovereign debt crisis and a US dollar crisis I think before the end of the Trump term.

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[12:02] I think we're going to hit 50 trillion before Trump finishes his term. and and that's going to be because the Fed is going to be back in QE mode, uh, monetizing a lot of this debt that the rest of the world no longer wants to finance.

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[6:59] I think the Trump second term in its entirety is going to uh deliver a bigger increase in the cost of living than the Biden term. So it's going to be a bigger problem inflation in Trump's second term than it was under Biden. uh especially in the last two years. I think that's where it's going to be the worst. Under Biden, inflation was the worst during his first two years, but I think in Trump, it's going to be the back end of his term, the last two years where inflation is going to be uh the worst probably into the double digits.

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[12:58] I think oil's going a lot higher and so are bond yields. Even if the war ends, uh, which, you know, who knows if that's actually going to happen anytime soon, but even if it does, uh, I think that these trends are going to remain in place.

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[20:58] I do think we're we're going to get a big decline in the stock market at some point. you know, we're at nosebleed valuations uh in a in a big AI uh tech bubble uh that's at some point going to burst.

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[29:20] I think you're going to see a lot of these, uh, buyouts, which is why, you know, my our fund is about a third in these juniors. And you know that's been a drag on performance in the last couple of years. But I think ultimately that's going to be what causes us to have substantial outperformance because I think all these stocks are going to get bought out for big premiums.

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[9:08] a lot of the crypto investors uh basically throw in the towel on that and realize they kind of got suckered into a into a pyramid Ponzi type scheme and that Bitcoin isn't actually digital gold and so you're going to see a rush uh to get into the real thing.

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[0:00] So inflation is going to continue to accelerate. Inflation is going to go into the double digits and who knows it may even go into the triple digits.

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[1:49] I think we might actually hit 50 trillion before Trump finishes his term. So that'd be about 11 trillion more in debt over the next 3 years.

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[2:03] I think we could be on the cusps of, an official recession

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[8:00] Unemployment is going to spike and inflation is going to spike even more.

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[12:35] I think it's going to be a US dollar crisis, a sovereign debt crisis.

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[14:52] I think the Dow could go down to less than two ounces of gold in, you know, in le in the next 5 to 10 years

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[36:58] I don't think gold's going to stay under 5,000 for long.

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[9:23] And then when Trump loses in 2028 and we get a Democrat in 2029

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[4:50] So a year from now, gold is going to be more expensive than it is right now. The same thing for silver.

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[5:27] Gold and silver breaking out is a similar warning that the sovereign debt and dollar crisis are going to hit and they might hit even this year, but I would say either this year or or next year.

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[23:19] I'm very bullish on energy right now and agricultural commodities. I think they're going to move. I think gold and silver are just leading the way.

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[23:19] I'm very bullish on energy right now and agricultural commodities. I think they're going to move. I think gold and silver are just leading the way.

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[23:26] But it's, you know, it's it's not just precious metals. It's industrial metals, right? It it's this is going to be a commodity boom.

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[23:36] I think the emerging markets are going to be the big winners. The brick countries are going to be a lot more uh prosperous when they no longer, you know, have the burden of supporting the US.

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[27:36] I think people are going to start throwing in the towel on Bitcoin this year. I think you're going to see an onslaught of selling coming out of the ETFs.

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[0:00] 4,000 is really the new 3,000 for gold. So 4,000 is kind of the support. This is not, you know, the end of this. It's gold's going a lot higher.

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[0:07] Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down, that bonds are going to go down.

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