Danielle DiMartino Booth Predictions
CEO of QI Research
Track Danielle DiMartino Booth's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[20:14] And there's every anticipation that it's going to continue to come down. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has announced that portfolio management fees, which I've been complaining about forever as being this huge input to the core PCE is I'm like, 'Okay, wait. We're saying that assets under management because the stock market is going up, should be reflected as consumer demand in the PPI and flow through to the PCE. That doesn't make any sense. The BEA is correcting for that.'
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[13:51] I just I cannot foresee a backdrop in which this economy can withstand much higher interest rates, whether you're a US household or a US small business.
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[28:41] uh given the actual hard economic analysis that we've done, I think the greatest risk right now is that we've seen peak AI in terms of investment. In terms of investment to grow the US economy. Um if that's the case, we could see the other side of the AI boom much more quickly than anybody's anticipating.
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[30:37] But as long as the market continues to go along, we could, you know, we could see stocks continue to move higher. But it's not real. It's not real. So in that sense the E in the price to earnings ratio the earnings and the price to earnings ratio is very much at risk.
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[25:31] I think he's chasing after inflation that's or at least core inflation that's not going to stop coming down. It's on that path.
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[16:21] I dare say that Scott Besson's not quite finished with some of the things that he can do for the bond market.
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[9:27] the percentage of unemployed Americans now who've been out of work for 27 weeks or more, that surpassed the number of job levers in the August report. Meaning we are already in recessionary territory when you look at the scarring that's occurred in the job market. Normally when permanent job losses surpass that of individuals switching to get a different job, you are in the teeth of a recession.
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While long-term unemployed (1.9M) did exceed job leavers (914K) in the August 2026 BLS report, the broader economy showed 162,000 jobs added in August, a stable 4.1% unemployment rate, positive GDP growth, and a Sahm Rule reading of -0.07 — with Polymarket placing a 91.5% probability on the US avoiding recession in 2026. No official recession was declared. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
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[21:28] right now, you know, S&P announced uh just a few days ago that in in May and June and July that they had north of 70 bankruptcy filings for companies with 2 million or more in liabilities for three months running, something they haven't seen like in the history of the series. So, and a lot of these are, you know, I'm going to kick the can down the road... and now they're coming through and ultimately filing chapter 11. And we're seeing more chapter 11 segue to being chapter 7 liquidations because they can't find the funding that they need while in the reorganization process.
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[23:48] But when the top of the K is supporting the percentage of consumption that it is, then you you you're in the soup. If those individuals at the top of the K stop spending as much as they have been... it will manifest as job losses for everybody.
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[16:36] I think this is probably something of a quick reaction. Bear in mind, when stocks fall, sometimes there those those margin calls hit and sometimes you sell what you've got the closest to you.
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[14:52] We're already seeing that. We've seen more than 200 companies close on any given month for 5 months running now. We are seeing slow small businesses close. We are seeing hours being cut, and I think we're going to see continuation of that.
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[1:48] we anticipate that that is going to stay hotter than what certainly well above the 2% inflation target.
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[18:36] I listen to the New York Fed uh saying that Americans' perceptions of the job market have deteriorated markedly. I don't look at Republican or Democratic responses to the University of Michigan, but I sure do look at those of independents who see higher unemployment expectations increasing as a factor of time.
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[17:58] The seasonal adjustments going on right now at the Bureau of Labor Statistics are clearly broken. It's not what we're seeing from job postings. It's not what we're seeing from paychecks. Uh with with 2 months in a row of declining small business openings, it's not what the National Federation of Independent Business is suggesting. It's not what ADP is communicating either. So, if there's a standout, if there's an outlier, that outlier tends to get corrected.
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[21:23] I don't think we're going to see any governor's descent given the direction of the actual inflation data that have been reported because Kevin Worse would say, "Please justify for me given we have disinflationary winds blowing. Please explain to me why we should be tightening."
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The FOMC voted unanimously 12-0 to hike rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4% on Sept 16, 2026, with Chair Warsh citing inflation as 'too high for too long.' The prediction's premise of disinflationary winds making a hike unjustifiable was wrong — the whole committee agreed on tightening. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[34:32] I think a it's it's a shoein to say that the House of Representatives is going to change hands, but you could have a lot of economic turmoil emanating from political turmoil if there is a full-blown blue wave on election day in 2026.
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[27:21] in the medium-term, David, in the medium-term, we know that the reason companies are pursuing it is to have fewer employees and have the employees that they do have be more efficient in approaching their work. And fewer employees, as you just said, there's a difference between not having a job and being worried about inflation.
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[13:13] when you see declines of this magnitude, you typically see GDP revised negative in time.
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[13:21] The GDP report that we've got coming out tomorrow morning, it's supposed to print at 1.3%. Wee. It's I mean, that's a rounding error. So, um, I'm I'm I'd be interested to see outside of AI. And that's one of the few things that he did mention was in in the same sense of trying to parse out the effect of shocks on core inflation. He did also mention you know how's the US economy doing absent this AI explosion of investment and um I mean the answer to that is terribly. It's awful without AI we we'd be printing negative numbers.
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[14:19] You've got year-over-year wages, according to Indeed, at 2.32%. I I mean 2.3%'s a wage inflation is the the most important gauge of inflation of all is wage inflation. It it's the clearest prism into the true supply demand dynamic in the economy. And you're talking about 2.32%. It doesn't seem like he's going to have to wait very long for that to get to two.
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[7:44] markets have got, you know, a hike priced in. Um and markets have got a high enough probability of a hike in September that that he would be defying kind of precedent Fed president in not hiking in September. But but Julia, I don't think he cares.
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The Fed under Warsh raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% at the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting in a unanimous 12-0 vote, directly contradicting the prediction that Warsh would not hike. The move aligned with — rather than defied — market expectations of a hike. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[31:43] the last thing that the US economy needs right now is for the top of the K to stutter. Well, absolutely because it's a domino thing. If the top of the K is stuttering, it's because the the air is coming out of the AI bubble. So, the implications are twofold. One on consumption and another on the AI investment bubble.
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[5:56] I think the most likely path going forward is that we're going to see the Fed do a whole lot of nothing for some time to come.
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[27:07] I think the market starts betting that the Fed's at least going to go on the sidelines, which would take the 2-year Treasury down. So, I would say the shorter shorter tenure 10 ten years from here because they've blown out so much would be a good place to be.
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[30:17] I did say a few weeks ago publicly that I thought that um that we were definitely coming to the end of the consolidation era where a lot of the many of the tourists had been washed out of the trade and gotten to the point where it was feasible that uh that this was time for fundamental players in the space to come to come tiptoeing back in.
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[7:46] I'm not expecting anything at all at the July meeting.
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The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at its July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, voting 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, exactly as predicted. Three regional presidents dissented in favor of a hike, but no rate change was made. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html)
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[10:18] 76% just north of 76% they don't see a cut in 2026 and just north of 17% think that we'll have exactly one cut. Do you think we'll see a cut at all this year or is that... Well, I don't think the next move is going to be a hike.
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[37:43] Again, we're going to see negative prints on headline CPI. It's I mean, it's just it's it's going to happen.
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[38:18] we're seeing home price declines expand beyond just the sunb belt.
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[38:09] this great rental reinflation that we were going to see in 2026 ain't happening. In fact, we're seeing the opposite of that.
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[8:56] I think the market should be paying very close attention to the volatility in the Treasury market right now. Um things are going to be very bumpy
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[21:21] I think we're going to see a cliff dive in manufacturing and a realization this summer that we've gone right back into an industrial recession.
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US manufacturing expanded consistently through summer 2026, with the ISM PMI at 53.3% in June and the S&P Global PMI at 53.9 in August — both well above the 50 expansion threshold. Axios reported in June 2026 that 'the manufacturing recession is over' after five straight months of expansion, the opposite of an industrial recession. (https://www.axios.com/2026/06/02/manufacturing-ism-trump-iran)
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[9:06] I think we're going to see more large write downs. I think we're we're not going to see a cessation in high redemption requests from these funds.
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[27:35] But I this being said, we're so close to the midterms. I I will boldly predict that there's going to be another postponement of forcing people onto harsher repayment plans for their student loans.
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[15:16] I understand that oil prices, in fact, I don't think the market is properly pricing in how persistently high interest rates are going to oil prices are going to stay, meaning put upward pressure on goods inflation. I don't think the market is fully priced in the destruction to the infrastructure in the Middle East and how long it's going to take to get energy prices back down.
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[30:28] He'll be confirmed by the Senate the same way, straight down party lines. But for now, the GOP controls the Senate. He will be confirmed.
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[4:15] And now it's I think it's 51% Democrats take the Senate, 49% take the House.
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[17:00] and everybody wants to wish away this private credit thing, but it doesn't appear to be going anywhere... what we publish almost every day is that as a factor of time, the policy error just keeps growing.
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[28:40] Fed meeting coming up end of April... What do you think? Do you think cuts are on the table or no or hope? No.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, making no cut. This was the third consecutive pause, with markets pricing in a 100% chance of no change. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm)
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[6:06] This is going to go down as one of the biggest policy errors in the history of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is going to ignore what's staring them in the face and keep monetary policy overly tight into recession.
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[3:12] every day that goes by. I'm I'm convinced that J Pal's going to be at the podium for the rest of the year. David,
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[19:45] it would shock me that if Christopher Waller, given the weakening in the labor market and given the shock to US household paychecks because of this oil supply shock, it would shock me if Waller did not descent at the April meeting.
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Christopher Waller did NOT dissent at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting. According to the Fed's official statement, Waller voted with the majority to hold rates steady. The four dissenters were Stephen Miran (wanting a cut) and regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan (opposing the easing bias). (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm)
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[14:14] Well, it looks like precious metals have found their floor, doesn't it? And that's something that we discussed as being um maybe in its infancy after this big sell-off. Uh but it certainly looks like people are finding a hiding place whether they're concerned about a a credit event which is increasingly the odds are are increasing that that's going to happen because again we're still in a higher for longer regime.
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[21:01] So basically what you're saying is more layoffs will happen before this gets better unless something dramatic changes because again we're not seeing the benefits that we were supposed to be seeing at this point from one big beautiful bill.
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[33:09] So I would expect that we would have at a bare minimum a year from now a six handle on the unemployment rate.
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[27:31] I think the I think the labor market recession continues
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[28:28] I think that the recession that we're currently in might not be acknowledged for a few years, but
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[10:41] I think that that could be a good way for him to um for worse to come into office if indeed Powell does stand pat uh through the end of his term.
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At the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting — Kevin Warsh's first as Fed chair — the committee voted unanimously to hold rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, not cut them by 50 basis points. In fact, nine of 18 FOMC members signaled a rate hike may be needed later in 2026 due to elevated inflation. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.
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[6:18] potential chair WH if he's confirmed um will not necessarily be battling inflation, but battling its its evil stepsister, disinflation.
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[25:06] In other words, we could easily be looking at sliding right below the Fed's 2% target going into the new year with this gauge that I follow.
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Inflation did not slide below the Fed's 2% target going into 2026. CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in January 2026, and December 2025 CPI was 2.7%—both well above the 2% threshold. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)
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[28:02] I think that a lot of the names in healthcare have been beaten up and I don't think that the aging of America is going to come to a screeching halt.
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[14:50] I would say that that investors should be very cautious about um about some of the froth coming out of the recent moves in gold and that they could see a continued consolidation there.
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The prediction claimed 'continued consolidation' (a bearish claim of sideways/downward movement with caution about froth), but gold instead rallied 33.5% to reach a period high of $5586.2, representing a 40.3% gain from the prediction date price of $3983.7, which directly contradicts the consolidation thesis.
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[17:54] we're going to see home prices decline.
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[8:06] we will start to see the unemployment rate tick up.
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[12:11] So again, you know, we're we're at a 4.2% uh unemployment rate. That's about the cycle high. I would expect that that's going to continue rising.
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The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in May 2025 to a high of ~4.5-4.6% by November 2025, before edging down slightly to 4.4% in December 2025 — confirming the prediction that it would continue rising over the course of 2025. (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate)
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[12:39] That is why we're expecting to see negative payroll prints starting with the next report.
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[26:18] I think the Fed's going to be forced to lower rates this summer
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The Fed held rates steady throughout summer 2025 (June–August) and only cut at the September 16-17, 2025 FOMC meeting (effective September 18), which is at the very end of summer/start of fall — not 'summer' in the conventional June–August sense. The prediction of a summer rate cut was not literally fulfilled. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20250917.htm)