Danielle DiMartino Booth Predictions
CEO of QI Research
Track Danielle DiMartino Booth's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
- Submit corrections
See quote
[21:21] I think we're going to see a cliff dive in manufacturing and a realization this summer that we've gone right back into an industrial recession.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[9:06] I think we're going to see more large write downs. I think we're we're not going to see a cessation in high redemption requests from these funds.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:35] But I this being said, we're so close to the midterms. I I will boldly predict that there's going to be another postponement of forcing people onto harsher repayment plans for their student loans.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[15:16] I understand that oil prices, in fact, I don't think the market is properly pricing in how persistently high interest rates are going to oil prices are going to stay, meaning put upward pressure on goods inflation. I don't think the market is fully priced in the destruction to the infrastructure in the Middle East and how long it's going to take to get energy prices back down.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[30:28] He'll be confirmed by the Senate the same way, straight down party lines. But for now, the GOP controls the Senate. He will be confirmed.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[4:15] And now it's I think it's 51% Democrats take the Senate, 49% take the House.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[17:00] and everybody wants to wish away this private credit thing, but it doesn't appear to be going anywhere... what we publish almost every day is that as a factor of time, the policy error just keeps growing.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[28:40] Fed meeting coming up end of April... What do you think? Do you think cuts are on the table or no or hope? No.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, making no cut. This was the third consecutive pause, with markets pricing in a 100% chance of no change. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm)
See quote
[6:06] This is going to go down as one of the biggest policy errors in the history of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is going to ignore what's staring them in the face and keep monetary policy overly tight into recession.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[3:12] every day that goes by. I'm I'm convinced that J Pal's going to be at the podium for the rest of the year. David,
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:45] it would shock me that if Christopher Waller, given the weakening in the labor market and given the shock to US household paychecks because of this oil supply shock, it would shock me if Waller did not descent at the April meeting.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Christopher Waller did NOT dissent at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting. According to the Fed's official statement, Waller voted with the majority to hold rates steady. The four dissenters were Stephen Miran (wanting a cut) and regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan (opposing the easing bias). (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm)
See quote
[14:14] Well, it looks like precious metals have found their floor, doesn't it? And that's something that we discussed as being um maybe in its infancy after this big sell-off. Uh but it certainly looks like people are finding a hiding place whether they're concerned about a a credit event which is increasingly the odds are are increasing that that's going to happen because again we're still in a higher for longer regime.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[21:01] So basically what you're saying is more layoffs will happen before this gets better unless something dramatic changes because again we're not seeing the benefits that we were supposed to be seeing at this point from one big beautiful bill.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[33:09] So I would expect that we would have at a bare minimum a year from now a six handle on the unemployment rate.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:31] I think the I think the labor market recession continues
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[28:28] I think that the recession that we're currently in might not be acknowledged for a few years, but
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[10:41] I think that that could be a good way for him to um for worse to come into office if indeed Powell does stand pat uh through the end of his term.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[6:18] potential chair WH if he's confirmed um will not necessarily be battling inflation, but battling its its evil stepsister, disinflation.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[25:06] In other words, we could easily be looking at sliding right below the Fed's 2% target going into the new year with this gauge that I follow.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Inflation did not slide below the Fed's 2% target going into 2026. CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in January 2026, and December 2025 CPI was 2.7%—both well above the 2% threshold. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)
See quote
[28:02] I think that a lot of the names in healthcare have been beaten up and I don't think that the aging of America is going to come to a screeching halt.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[14:50] I would say that that investors should be very cautious about um about some of the froth coming out of the recent moves in gold and that they could see a continued consolidation there.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed 'continued consolidation' (a bearish claim of sideways/downward movement with caution about froth), but gold instead rallied 33.5% to reach a period high of $5586.2, representing a 40.3% gain from the prediction date price of $3983.7, which directly contradicts the consolidation thesis.
See quote
[17:54] we're going to see home prices decline.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[8:06] we will start to see the unemployment rate tick up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[12:11] So again, you know, we're we're at a 4.2% uh unemployment rate. That's about the cycle high. I would expect that that's going to continue rising.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in May 2025 to a high of ~4.5-4.6% by November 2025, before edging down slightly to 4.4% in December 2025 — confirming the prediction that it would continue rising over the course of 2025. (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate)
See quote
[12:39] That is why we're expecting to see negative payroll prints starting with the next report.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[26:18] I think the Fed's going to be forced to lower rates this summer
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady throughout summer 2025 (June–August) and only cut at the September 16-17, 2025 FOMC meeting (effective September 18), which is at the very end of summer/start of fall — not 'summer' in the conventional June–August sense. The prediction of a summer rate cut was not literally fulfilled. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20250917.htm)