Tech Stocks Predictions

[20:32] Google's depreciation expenses are going to rise from uh what was 17% up to up to 35% by 2028. So they're going to see the depreciation expenses double. Um so this is the problem is that you have a gigantic uh uh market cap that's being fed by these uh the mag seven hyperscalers. Uh and yet uh it doesn't look like right now the way things are trending that they're going to get the cash flows that they thought they were going to get.

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[6:58] I think it's probably got a couple more years to go. You're right in that, you know, big tech capex spend has driven a lot of of GDP, right? And but but it's been real.

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[23:09] Um, you know, my guess is that, you know, the tech space is still going to be the driver of what happens in the market. Uh, the sort of tech AI, you know, and kind of the adjacent areas and then kind of everything else.

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[4:32] I'd stay away from IGV. That's not a smart index that's going to include everything. I'd be careful on software.

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[23:14] we just hedged it by buying ARC puts.

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[28:07] No. Um if anything um you know they the tech se the tech sector is going to be the the highest bidder for energy anyway driving up prices for electricity and natural gas as we're already seeing around the world. Um the the the biggest input into tech center that matters is US natural gas and um there's been no blip in US natural gas production. Um and if anything... we we think this is mostly a non-event for big tech.

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[26:59] every valuation metric you look on it tells you that it's probably over the most important one I think that's overlooked is these tech guys now look like commodity guys. They produce AI compute... They're putting steel in the ground. These guys don't get People who put steel in the ground don't get 30-plus multiples. They get like 10 to 12.

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[11:34] the technology companies can become and forced to become more vertically integrated. I think that's what you're going to see. I've been saying it I I called it probably way too early... they're going to invest in order to um in order to have offtake, right?

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[37:09] it seems as though we're due for rotation out of the big tech growth stocks in the US and into defensive stocks in the US, value stocks in the US, uh, global stocks, uh, value stocks internationally, emerging markets, you know, and so on.

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[3:20] Yeah, I do. I I I do expect we'll see eventually tech have a very sharp correction.

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[27:28] The problem is that you know tech itself I don't think is going to outperform the other sectors over the next 5 years and that's the irony because we're in the middle of the AI super cycle but tech is not necessarily doing great what's doing great is actually uh either the capex plays that enable cap uh AI to be built out or all the other sectors we're using AI will boost productivity and margins like healthcare or finance.

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[6:28] I'd actually argue that tech is about to be regulated like hell. uh we are seeing we are seeing a very interesting societal push back against AI implementation.

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[17:50] the companies that are melting up the technology giants they're immune to inflation. they're immune to uh the geopolitical concerns or the or the weakness in manufacturing that may happen in some economies in others not etc. They're in a different league and I think that that is likely to continue.

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[6:49] the leadership, as you know, many of your guests have spoken about has become very narrow. Um, it's been all tech all the time since the end of March. I think that's to me that's unsustainable. It looks like a tremendous blowoff.

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[3:33] I think we've seen the peak in that area. I think we're seeing some of these signals now. We've just seen one of the foremost experts uh who made an absolute killing in AI and has now actually gone short the semiconductor stocks. We're seeing a lot of layoffs increasing uh in the tech market and that's all the early signs when a market has peaked.

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[10:43] I would stay away from tech, just as I mentioned last time. Software, we said stay away from it's too hard. I'd still stay away from that.

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[21:32] we're going to reach a point in time where the spending is going to have to slow and the depreciation charges are going to start to surge. And that's where you're going to see uh earnings for these big companies start to do kind of what free cash flow has been doing already, which is which is plummeting.

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[20:08] I think within 5 years maybe 3 years uh the agencies whether or not it's S&P or Russell or Morgan Stanley Msei they're going to split the tech sector into two.

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[29:32] we see a.com bust. Way overinvested. way overinvested in these dotcom company country companies

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[3:41] certain areas of the stock market could fall in half. I mean the technology stocks could fall in half and they'd still be overvalued, wouldn't they?

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