Doomberg Predictions

[0:16:44] while we have been dubious of the sort of hyperbull analysis of oil should go to 150 and that the markets are being manipulated because it hasn't yet. One of the reasons why it hadn't yet is because of the free flow of crude oil out of the Red Sea. You turn that spigot off and then even we are in the camp of okay like now we're in a we're in a meaningful crisis like all bets are off

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[0:33:46] I would be shocked if we didn't see beginning tonight or tomorrow um sort of a what Demi at Military Summary would call a mega strike uh where the target is, you know, electricity, heat, water, and so on. I hope it doesn't happen, but that looks like it's it's it's teed up.

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[25:07] $30 a barrel nominal is just as likely as 150 from here.

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[4:08] you know, oil supplies to kind of just you know creep creep higher over the coming decades and oil prices to remain contained you know maybe even trend a little bit lower over coming decades... >> Oh, it's it's firmly our opinion and if anything, these events only accelerate that

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[35:43] if you ask me, could we get to 2 million barrels in two years, you know, from 1.1 today? So an extra 900,000 I would say that's probably a reasonable overunder where you'd split the market um just spitballing

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[23:03] all this extra supply is coming online, lo and behold, peace in Ukraine will will evolve. Peace in the Middle East will evolve... it's going to come out terrible for everybody because there's going to be way too much supply. All shortages are followed by guts.

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[16:14] It's going to be an inflationary pulse on the economy. So, what why do I say Trump is taking a bit of a gamble? He at any time can toggle US exports of diesel to prioritize the domestic market. He has chosen not. He has chosen not to. He is hoping to get through the midterms and not have international diesel prices spike to the point where Iran gets excess economic and geopolitical leverage over him.

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[18:25] generally speaking, midterms are challenging for incumbents. The Republicans are in control, at least in theory, of the House and the Senate and the White House. And broadly speaking, when that happens, the midterms don't go well for the incumbent party. The Iran war has gone very poorly for Trump.

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[21:10] I do think when this is done, Iran will be reintegrated into the global economy. Another long shot uh prediction for you, but um this this is all temporary. This two shall pass.

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[19:32] It could go much higher from here. For example, when you run a refinery at 98 99% capacity across the industry, they blow up sometimes. And you know, we are one major explosion, accident, sabotage, pick your favorite theory, cyber attack. We're one major explosion at a large American, European, Asian refinery away from a real problem.

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[18:37] Of course. Look, um the same numbers that cause this to be a problem um prove just how solvable a problem it is. Um so if there's 7 million barrels a day of competitive seaborn barrels of diesel and the global refining capacity is 100 million barrels, every percent shift to diesel overall solves 15% of your problem. Um and so yes u refineries will invest to become more flexible... This will of course collapse the price of diesel.

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[10:33] Once everybody learns that Trump could control domestic prices simply by limiting exports, putting a tax on exports, signaling to the refiners that they should be taking care of the domestic markets first. Um, he hasn't done that yet. And the moment people realize that he can, that's been an option he's had since the war started, um, he'll almost be forced to politically, we think.

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[5:48] if the escalation ladder, you know, escapes the control of the main actors and people start firing missiles into critical assets that get knocked offline for years, um, then you could see a real super spike in oil.

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[30:14] high oil prices is bearish for US debt. Um because if the US debt, the treasuries, treasury bonds and bills are reserve assets and they are still, you know, um uh alongside gold, the largest things people buy with their extra money. And when you have extra money and you need energy, you happily trade that money for energy... people sell treasuries to buy oil

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[28:03] everywhere you see a choke point, um, you're going to see potential um, flare-ups... if the US military is on the decline, if the US Navy can no longer police these choke points, um, then all bets are off and we're going to see a return to piracy, a return to might is right, and that's that's inflationary.

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[26:08] one of the things that could be causing the price of oil to go up that we saw over the weekend as China's re-entering the market aggressively. maybe it wants to drive higher oil prices to spook Trump ahead of the of the midterms. So, one of the signs of this that we saw over the weekend is that, you know, um Shanghai crude is selling at a premium, which means that China is getting back in.

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[18:57] it's on the way, I would say. So, if you if you look at that chart and you just sort of get the halfway point of the war, we're kind of at where we were at the beginning of the war.

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[21:43] there is a bulge of inflation that's coming even if things normalize and peace is achieved

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[29:13] fertilizer prices are starting to come back in of course with the rest of the energy complex after the the war you know and theou was signed

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[25:16] I would say that the LG market is actually pretty well behaved. Um, and not signaling a significant crisis. Prices are almost back to pre-war levels without seeing the chart.

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[28:07] No. Um if anything um you know they the tech se the tech sector is going to be the the highest bidder for energy anyway driving up prices for electricity and natural gas as we're already seeing around the world. Um the the the biggest input into tech center that matters is US natural gas and um there's been no blip in US natural gas production. Um and if anything... we we think this is mostly a non-event for big tech.

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[27:02] Look, I think the direction of travel for oil is lower... do I want to be long the price of oil in 12 months or short it from today? Of course, I'd want to be shorted.

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[36:30] I don't think that OPEC breaking up is the death of the petro dollar. I think it's the death of OPEC. Something we have been calling for and others have been calling for for a long time.

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[37:33] I say it's going to come online faster than skeptics think, but it still will take a long time. Um I think the first half a million barrels a day will be easier than most people realize to bring online.

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[19:54] I honestly think um the war is going to go on for a very long time and I hope that I'm wrong.

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[32:12] The long-term real price of oil will be lower from here. um especially if the top is already in.

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[26:44] We think the energy markets will probably split in two um with a western hemisphere and an Asian hemisphere.

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[27:43] more pressure downwards. Um there's nothing no bullish catalyst on the horizon that we see. there's just so much of it, David.

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[20:13] the war in Ukraine will be settled, um, militarily and 6 to9 months things are going to look, um, very different than they do today.

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[16:49] perhaps it's a mix of analysis and advocacy, but we think the likely outcome is this sort of peters out in the next week.

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[12:13] Oil's going to 50 bucks. Like you just pulled it off. I don't know who's buying oil at 61, but they don't like money.

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[10:34] there's going to be a recession. I think Trump is gambling on a V-shaped recession. We're on the back end of it before the midterms.

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