Treasury Market Predictions
Browse Treasury Market market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[23:19] I I I I think we're in a bond bear market. I've been saying that for years. We're in a bond bear market. It is global and it follows the epic possibly the greatest financial bubble in the history of bubbles in terms of dollars when we had $18 trillion of negative yielding bonds. This is the flip side of that and I think it continues in the years to come.
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[28:10] bonds for an asset class have been dead for 5 years. And I think without a a a meaningful change in fiscal policy and a meaningful change in monetary policies uh in in the western world uh I think bonds stay dead.
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[0:23] I don't have a very bullish outlook for equities and clearly as well for bonds.
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[8:56] I think the market should be paying very close attention to the volatility in the Treasury market right now. Um things are going to be very bumpy
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[23:28] Best I think the final my focus remains. US Treasuries might grab alpha this year. haven't been right yet, but that 5% long bond I think is going to just we're going to look back and say yeah was your last chance.
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[30:07] It's hard to say if it breaks the market rally. It It makes me more bullish on bonds than most other people because I think all the concerns about fiscal policy are going to be redressed. Um because I think the fiscal large is going to be I think we're going to have fiscal inertia.
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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.
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[13:41] Like gold like I I'd argue like treasuries themselves long duration which has been the worst place to be worst bare market in history for treasuries which is actually bullish going forward
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[35:00] we do kind of expect banks to be US banks especially to become larger buyers of US fixed income especially at these higher rates... we do think that um that there's a a domestication happening of the US bond market away from foreign investors uh and that will be where most of the demand's going to come from going forward.
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[7:54] I think the next few few months inflation will go higher, at least the way we see it. So, there's the bonds will probably be under more pressure in our opinion.
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[5:33] sovereign bonds particularly long-term sovereign bonds have stopped being the reserve asset the safe haven that gave you a cushion of return in an environment of weakness that the 6040 portfolio used to provide. You need to look elsewhere for that 40% uh out of out of equities.
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[19:21] I think bonds will be a good place to be. You're not going to make a killing, but I think that uh you'll do fine.
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[28:29] Now since since that chart we've dropped down to 112 area. you get down around 111 in price, which is that upper chart there. You can see it's probed down to 10750 back in 2023, but then there were two lows down just in the 111 since then that almost got to 110. You go back down to the 111 again, you're not going to hold. Okay? And I think you could get a mini panic.
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[14:56] So I would say bonds would are more likely to suffer than any other asset class out there.
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[35:52] The risk you should be concerned about right now is not recession, depression, interest rates going down. Owning bonds, having 40% of your portfolio in bonds does not hedge you against that risk.
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[24:12] We see one of the largest ever short positioning in TLT in history. Well, I'd be long fixed income.
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[32:34] And I think that you're going to find that the much maligned, ignored, despised treasury market is going to be the one market that is going to be delivering equity-like returns over the next 12 months.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed 'equity-like returns' (typically 8-10%+ annually) over 12 months, but TLT only reached a period high of $89.51 (a ~9.4% gain from $81.84), which could arguably qualify as equity-like, but the final return was only 3.2% by the target date; however, using the period high rule for a rally prediction, the ~9.4% peak gain during the period could be considered equity-like returns, making this prediction correct.
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[16:08] I think the only area to really be in you know likely is the area which everybody hates which again is treasuries and probably more on the long duration side. Everyone suddenly forgot that the pristine asset long duration treasuries tends to act like the best place to be when everything falls apart.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed long duration treasuries (TLT) would be 'the best performing asset class' during market stress, but TLT declined 2.3% over the period and hit a low of $80.30, failing to demonstrate outperformance as a 'pristine asset' that 'tends to act like the best place to be when everything falls apart'—the specific claim was not met.