Douglas Macgregor Predictions
Former Advisor to US Secretary of Defense
Track Douglas Macgregor's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[27:27] most people have concluded that certainly by 2031, uh you could you're going to see gold at 13,000 to 15,000 dollars an ounce.
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[39:23] I still do have money in oil. And I think that that will go through the roof. I think it'll hit it'll skyrocket in the in the months ahead for the reasons I've outlined. I simply see no evidence that this war is over.
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[34:32] I think we're going to witness bank runs in in months ahead. I think we're on the on the precipitous edge of a major depression. Some people think, 'Oh, well, it's going to be a bad recession.' Everybody's pretty much resigned to that. That's baked in. Not too many people really believe we could have a depression. I do.
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[22:05] I think we're going to wake up at some point, maybe this week or next week, I don't know, and we're going to find out that it has begun again.
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As of August 18, 2026, the US had not resumed strikes on Iran for 19 consecutive nights since the cancellation of the threatened campaign on August 1. The pause held through the entire prediction window (Aug 6–19), with no CENTCOM-confirmed US strikes inside Iran restarting. (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm)
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[4:06] The pressure on President Trump to re-engage in support of Israel will be overwhelming. He will be pressured to re-engage. Will he re-engage? Yes, I think he will. He'll probably say, 'Okay, we're going to go in here. We're going to try and help the Israelis.' Uh but then he's probably going to say, 'We can't stay in this.'
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[26:28] you're going to go back up over $100 for oil. I don't know if it'll go to 140, 150, or even higher. It all depends on how violent this next episode turns out to be.
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[20:56] We're drawing that down, and we're going to get to the point where we cannot draw it down any further by the fall. Now, that could come earlier. It could come at the beginning of August or end of August.
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[37:47] Listen, we're going to see it hit 10,000. You know, I My point is gold is going to become the currency once again of the realm.
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[39:37] Gold is effectively the reserve currency. That's clear. Uh we still call the dollar the reserve currency and it will at least in the popular imagination remain that for a while simply because there's so many dollars out there. So much is denominated in dollars and so much business still carries on in dollars, but ultimately it's gold will become the reserve currency.
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[2:28] What about AI? I said, AI is a bubble.
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[18:24] I think we're now on a sort of decline financially and economically, but we're going to hit a point where the decline then becomes a sudden drop. And I think we're going to find ourselves into something akin to a depression.
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[36:23] I don't think the Fed is in control anymore. And I don't think you can artificially suppress interest rates in perpetuity. And the bond yields continue to rise.
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[26:59] And we're looking at $200 a barrel before we're through. I think I think we'll be at 150 before the summer's end and probably by the end of the year close to 200, maybe more.
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[19:08] I think they're both going to happen. We're going to exhaust ourselves and we're going to have a terrible financial crisis, much worse than 2008. That much I can say with certainty.
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[22:50] I also also personally think the Chinese stock market is a much better place to invest right now for a whole range of reasons and Americans are beginning to discover that
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[4:08] If you look at the price increases in your grocery stores in the months ahead, it will be worse than it is now. Uh but these rising prices will arise or arrive quietly and mercilessly.
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[25:32] wait for the stock market to crash because if this takes off the way I think it will, that market will eventually catch up with reality.
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[22:05] I think you'll see a global recession that could rapidly become a depression.
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[15:08] I think what's next is a massive air and missile campaign that begins sometime on Monday that is designed to destroy the Iranian state and cause the disintegration of the Iranian society.
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No massive air and missile campaign against Iran began on Monday, April 20, 2026. Instead, the US-Iran ceasefire (in effect since April 7-8) continued, with Trump stating it would end 'Wednesday evening Washington time' and VP Vance traveling to Pakistan for further negotiations. While tensions escalated with a US seizure of an Iranian ship, no new massive bombing campaign was launched that Monday. (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/20/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel)
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[6:18] And eventually I predict that we will ration it here at home. There will be a decision much like the Chinese have made to stop exporting it.
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