Peter Grandich Predictions

[2:29] a brief visit under 4,000 here from this level, which isn't a lot. uh would really psychologically set up I think a really strong bottom that gold needs to go into 2027 to go back to challenge the highs that were made earlier this year and move towards uh record highs in 2028.

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[2:55] shortterm little bearish but anything past a few weeks or uh maybe a month or two I think it's it maintain a very bullish stance towards gold.

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[10:04] What changed my mind in the last 3 days, that's when it's changed for our clients and my readers, is that we're now seeing great deterioration underneath that one group that's doing well... when you see weakness and less and less participation, it's usually a good sign minimally of a serious correction coming or a major change of foot.

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[23:19] I just think it's going to it's going to work its way higher. And the issue that we haven't seen yet... the least resistance still to me in interest rates is up, not down.

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[25:02] I don't believe there's going to be a rise in October. I think it it it's political suicide to raise rates there for them. I think they'll wait till after the election, but I have no doubt in my mind that December we will have another rise in interest rates.

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[35:35] the seven may even come before 2027, but but like I said, it was the strongest of the metals.

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[29:40] agricultural commodities as a group should work higher, not lower because of this and other reasons.

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[21:07] I think what I'm feel is going to happen in the election moves into 2027 and then I think then we'll have a dramatic slowdown.

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[18:14] I think there's an opportunity in the Canadian mining and expiration unlike look any other place.

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[24:10] I I think we're in for a generation of tougher times. Let's understand that we've been living beyond our means for decades here in the US.

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[15:08] you called staying out of treasury bonds one of the best calls of your career. You said those losses will continue. Why is that?

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[15:08] I made a very the most important decision I think uh you know we have a planning group of close to 2 billion under management and the end of 2021 I felt that the only thing that can happen with interest rates is to go up and go up a lot meaning that that would be losses for treasury bonds and that gold would outperform both stocks and bonds. Uh which it has. Gold has even with the correction and all has doubled the performance since then of what the stock market has done.

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[31:11] you'll start to see the financial media a year or so from now talking about mining in the way they started talking about technology a few years ago because it's an absolute necessity.

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[38:09] I think there's no escalation until people going to wait to see what the election results are now... I think it will peak uh between now and the election, and thankfully after the election, we'll get something back. Not like it used to be completely as before, but better than it is now.

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[9:18] Trump has a much bigger problem than that and that is the loss of the House and even potentially the Senate which will then in my opinion not give him six months lasting as president.

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[12:24] since those what those numbers have been taken from since then inflation's even become stronger because we've had such a big bump up in key things like oil, gas, diesel, and all. So the next month's numbers could be even worse than that.

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[4:42] this is where the dollar really is going to pay the dues for all these years of easy access. So, uh, I think it's big news. I think it's going to be further big news and I think he comes out on the short end of the stick.

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[27:10] I've told you for for over a year, I believe the EU is beginning of the end of it.

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[19:28] I'm in the camp that doesn't own any US equities. I think that's enough bearishness to begin with. Rolling over and not performing well for several years is another matter and that's the advice that I've given in our planning group, why I don't want to have any US exposure to general equities.

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[18:41] we might have just before Labor Day here in the USA uh to see some still supporting the market, but after that I think things are going to get very tough in our market as the political stuff moves to the forefront and they can't keep covering up all the excesses that this stock market has you know, taken well advantage of.

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[21:01] I think what's happened here is in many of the metals, not just gold, not just silver, but copper and base metals, the argument that we had 6 months ago when everybody was running to buy them has only gotten better. We're going to continue to have an ever-increasing shortages of key metals, including critical metals.

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[25:02] I think most of it is behind us, and I think that's the area where capital gains in metals, base metals, critical minerals, and otherwise are areas that to go to.

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[26:43] I think gold is going up cuz that's where the world is need to go to remonetize everything, and China is leading the way. And that's why they just continue to buy it.

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[25:17] my favorite metal just works higher. It's never had a serious enough correction that you could have sold it and got back in. And that's copper. And all thing all things related to copper now, uh tremendous supply and demand story. Uh even owning copper stocks at this point in time, I would rather own than any technology stock.

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[24:00] I think short-term meaning months to a year or two, rates can work higher and even test or get above 5% on the 10-year.

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[12:40] There's not a chance in heck that there's going to be a cut. And quite frankly, not cutting interest rates here can do more damage to the I'm sorry, not raising interest rates here can do more damage to the bond market than if they raised it.

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[2:37] there's a real good chance a lot of polls polls aren't always right, obviously, but a lot of polls feel at least the house will be lost by the Republicans and even possibly the Senate.

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[16:17] the dollar continues, not fastly, but slowly, to be more and more sold and not bought, uh irregardless of how the dollar index may rebound. We're still seeing less usages of the dollar as world currency

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[4:50] if you look past the next few weeks and get in towards the end of the year into next year, this war is going to have a net negative on the United States and its markets.

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[0:23] I don't have a very bullish outlook for equities and clearly as well for bonds.

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[0:23] I don't have a very bullish outlook for equities and clearly as well for bonds.

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[5:17] Countries like Singapore, even China, to me, I would sooner own their equities than our equities now.

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[9:57] there's a very strong chance that the house will revert back to democratic control.

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[10:29] I don't think he makes it through his last 2 years. I think he'll do something what the Biden group did at the end. I think he'll pardon whoever he thinks people may go after after he's gone. And then it part of his leaving is Vance pardons him.

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[27:13] I think they're going to try to work it that hey, 3% isn't so bad. Because it'll be four or five at that point in time.

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[26:37] he's probably going to word out this 2% target. That it's either going to become a number that yet determined or something higher than 2%, and that way it will be more understandable to accept a higher rate of inflation than for 6 years keep missing a number that you don't get close to achieving.

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[15:25] Biden put it out as a trial, and I think within one or two administrations, they're going to bring it back again.

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[1:43] the movement not only in inflation up until this point as well as some of the Fed governors zero chance of a of a cut which many people thought a few months ago would happen uh also I think fairly zero chance of a raise

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[2:00] did they take the wording out which previously has suggested there could be a cut in the future that I think is a strong chance likely as well. But to keep the guy who helped get him in off his back maybe the first few weeks, he might try to leave it in some way in.

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[2:21] I don't expect anything out of the Fed to have dramatic movements in the stock market immediately after.

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[3:58] we're not going to get the 30 or $40 oil which if you remember before the Iranian war even was a possibility in most people's mind there were people looking for oil to fall that low again one of the things I think this created is and people realized how close we Kate to a worldwide energy crisis we're not going to get cheap oil as might have been in the past.

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[5:21] I now think the bottom is in. And what caused the bottom for me to be in is not the common persons that are always saying goals going up or always going down from Main Street Wall Street. But the sentiment from just January and February when it was all rocket ships, we're going to 10,000 tomorrow. Silver's going to be 300. Flipped basically 180

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[10:43] I think it's going to go up, I think it's going to go to a new high. I think the talks up much higher and eventually someday being 10,000 or more legitimate.

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[10:56] the money to be made in it from a capital appreciation reason only is owning the mining shares, not the physical gold. And that's why my focus is now more emphasis on the shares and even going down the food chain into the more risk development type companies

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[15:05] I'm certain all those people who are all multi multi-millionaires that are going to be looking to get out of their stock as early as August, uh, if you're not in by now, I think it's far too late and eventually there's going to be a sharp correction in it.

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[18:54] I do think there's going to be people like me that support it for one reason or another, voted for him, and are going to question that or actually flip and look to go against him. And if I'm right about that and somehow the Democrats get hold of at least the House, the quagmire that will happen for the remaining part of his term will make his first term look like a walk in the park.

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[13:18] The United States economically, socially and politically is in far worse shape than any time other than the major declines 2000 n 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929... it's time to maybe short the US stock market.

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[14:53] 5% on the 10-year the 10year gets above 5% and the market hasn't at least corrected hard then don't don't ever listen to Peter Granwich again

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[27:26] I believe there's a more likely chance of a raise rate than a decline... interest rates to me can only work higher over time. They're not going back to one two or 3%.

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[30:57] Silver has finished its correction in my opinion... I do believe silver and copper have already bottom

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[11:27] I do believe silver and copper have already bottom... Its fundamentals have never gotten better than it is now.

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[3:33] I think we've seen the peak in that area. I think we're seeing some of these signals now. We've just seen one of the foremost experts uh who made an absolute killing in AI and has now actually gone short the semiconductor stocks. We're seeing a lot of layoffs increasing uh in the tech market and that's all the early signs when a market has peaked.

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[5:09] I'm still in the camp that I was a year ago that it's going to end up much higher than even it got in January.

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[5:26] I think the profitability and the leverage will come more from the share side than it did in the physical.

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[18:08] I don't think people have come to conclusion how much AI is going to impact the employment picture on a negative standpoint. I think that's a topic 6 to 12 months from now the financial world will be talking a lot more not about all the stocks in 25 that were going up and people making money but how much AI has gotten to the point where it's actually causing serious drop in employment

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[16:56] I can't imagine that Democrats get control of the house again which I think is a very real possibility now versus say this time last year

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[6:15] my advice has been, and it's been on record, that we were going to potentially ek slightly over 50,000. There'd be a celebration by the don't worry happy crowd on Wall Street. Little did I know that the attorney general would create a new stock sale signal for the next generation with her Dow 50,000 comment. But you're right, it's rolling over. I believe the major top has been put in and I believe we're going to go into a more consolidated sideways to down movement for the rest of the year in the stock market.

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[13:12] That's why I believe there's still a retest of those lows that were made in the high 60s in silver and around 44 4500 on gold.

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[13:12] That's why I believe there's still a retest of those lows that were made in the high 60s in silver and around 44 4500 on gold.

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[3:00] I really believe that $5,000 now is only a question of when, not if.

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[0:02] We are going to have a huge huge problem meeting the needs of the expectations that the market has built in these AI stocks. And the moment when people realize it's not happening or certainly close, that's when it will cave.

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[11:31] going into 2026. I think it's going to be a totally different story.

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[37:36] the biggest mistake anybody could have at this point in time is owning Bitcoin.

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[32:30] I think you'll be talking about it within two to three years tops. And that is the implosion of the European Union.

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[32:13] I'll see it in my lifetime if I live another five to 10 years of China becoming the the number one economic power.

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[31:36] Copper was my favorite metal. It remains it. I think it's slow but steady higher.

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[1:35] I was looking by year end to be somewhere between five and 525

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[9:48] It's due for a bounce, but eventually I think the dollar goes even lower

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[18:27] I now believe and three months ago chose that silver now is in the same ballpark in gold. In fact, I think it's preparing to outperform gold for the next several months

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[23:42] I still think they will do as well, if not better, than the stock market, at least for the balance of this year and into 2026

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[34:10] Social Security as we know it will not exist in the manner that we know it now in ne 10 years from now

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[7:04] I think the dollar eventually breaks that support and on the dollar index it gets down to the 89.990 area. So there's still another 10% or more decline in my eyes for the US dollar sometime later in the year.

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[8:34] it can correct 10 or 20% from its high, but nevertheless, I still think eventually it'll be a lot higher than the ultimate high that it had just the other day.

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[16:46] I think it has all the ingredients to take out that key resistance in the 3536 area. And I think we're going to see a much higher silver price later this year

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[14:04] I think longer term uh the GDX and even the GDXJ have a lot higher price levels to reach before there's any really consideration to any meaningful top.

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[22:28] I think we have it. I think we're going to see in the coming weeks how weaker the economy has become here in the US. Yet, the inflation numbers are not going to be dropping that dramatic to support that. And I think that's a word stagflation that's going to be used quite a bit in the coming weeks and months.

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[35:25] I think it's going through a major topping formation and it's not a place where I suggest to any of my clients to have any real assets in.

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