Lobo Tiggre Predictions
Founder of Independent Speculator
Track Lobo Tiggre's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[20:34] near-term, yes. It could be a headwind for gold. That might be what's happening today. Longer term, no, I think that that leads us to a stagflationary path and ultimately not not ultimately, not someday, not 10 years from now, more like what happened after the COVID lockdowns. You know, the coming inflation turned out to be good for gold after all and I I think the setup here is actually quite constructive for gold.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[16:39] they oughtn't to be worried about gold. They should be looking at equities, risk assets. If the so-called risk-free premium spikes, you know, the the case for buying risk assets really goes away. That's that's the bigger trade here. I mean, I'm I'm not dissing gold, but you know, the gold the entire gold sector is a tiny fraction of tech stocks or or anything else of the overall marketplace. So, uh you know, people if people want to worry about this, I think I really think they should be worrying about the stock market rally and and how long it can go on in the face of higher rates.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[29:27] the data is telling us that oil is likely to stay higher for longer, even if percent is right. And I doubt that he is. And that has economic and investment implications that we should take seriously.
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[28:10] let's say for the rest of this year, oil remains in the range that it is now, that's a huge problem. Oil doesn't even have to go higher. It just stays where it is now and the knock-on effects economically are huge.
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[17:51] this is also, I think, you know, it substantiates what I've been saying about stagflation being my outlook here. We've got weakening labor um weak or weakening labor conditions not just in the US, but in many countries. Um you know, who who knows about Chinese data, but that the growth in China has recently sparked concern. There's There's plenty of economic weakness out there, and the war certainly doesn't help. You know, the oil squeeze doesn't help, and you've got stubbornly high inflation at the same time. So, sure looks like stagflation to me.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[5:30] Give me 20 years I have no doubt we'll see much higher gold and silver prices.
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[32:51] Longer term, I'm I'm I'm very very bullish. Objectively, things are, you know, things have recovered significantly from the lows just a couple weeks ago. They're still relatively on sale, but I want to buy low and sell high.
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[36:45] I've been bullish on copper for for actually a couple years now it's been my my highest confidence call has been in the copper space but but the opportunity to buy the stocks again the metal is one thing the stocks are another the opportunity to buy the stocks low just hasn't been there in a big way
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[38:23] I love this pair trade idea of copper versus gold for 2026. My one concern is that the supply side has actually gotten even shakier than usual.
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[4:35] My base case right now is actually a period of correction, consolidation, and the next big move will be higher. That is my expectation. Not my prediction. I don't know the future, but that's what I think is the most likely thing. But if that's true, correction and consolidation, you know, last time in 2020 when we first hit 2000, it lasted 3 years.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[13:06] I do have a very bullish thesis on oil sort of medium to long term, but I think in the near term, the odds favor a shopping opportunity.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[17:01] Right now, Spot has been below uh the long-term contract price pretty much all year... That never lasts. The spot will, you know, it's more volatile. It'll go, it'll shoot higher and lower, but it always comes back to the long-term price over in time. And right now it's been below long-term contract for months. So I think there's potential for a snap move up in spot which does tend to move the stocks.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[18:14] I would say I'm more bullish on an oil rebound. It may go lower before it goes up, but if we're talking second half of 2026, I think we see oil uh come higher, significantly higher from where we are now, and certainly from where I think we might go lower.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[4:53] I have a feeling that even if oil itself carves out a bottom here, that won't stop the stocks from going lower on the narrative. And the narrative right now is there's people talking about an oil glut... So, um I think there's potential for oil to go lower and even if it doesn't, I think there's potential for the stocks to keep going lower as we speak.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[20:20] The spot price kind of it's like a rubber band that shoots above and below the long-term contract price, but it never goes too far for too long and then it snaps back and it has been consistently below the long-term contract price for months. So I think spot has a has another snapback coming which would be upward and that will be good for the stock.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[4:27] It is reasonable to expect um an a bias towards easy money whether the circumstances merit it or not.
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[3:24] The uptick or rather the bottom was before the war. So both CPI and PCE already started to rebound before the war and they're just going higher. So I don't think, you know, I don't think it holds any water to say, oh, it's just transitory. Oh, it's just war.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[5:49] I think the big thing that's coming is a significant unwind of the AI trade. And whether that's actually the AI bubble popping and a and a waterfall event in the markets or something a little less harmful, I'm not sure.
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[4:32] I expect silver to consolidate again at some point here. Maybe it goes up the the technical guys tell me it goes up to 68 something like that just below 70 and then maybe corrects for a while.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed silver would reach 'around $68, just below $70' and then possibly correct. While the price on the target date was $68.47 (meeting the $68 level), the period high reached $121.3, which contradicts the bearish 'consolidation and correction' claim by showing instead a massive 83% rally well beyond the predicted $70 ceiling before any meaningful correction occurred.
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[19:02] why is copper again my most my my top pick for 2026? It's not because I necessarily think copper will go up more than gold or silver or uranium. It's because I have the highest confidence that it will and that I think it will be substantial.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[28:08] there is a significant chance that both correct and consolidate for a while, possibly even all of 2026.
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[10:00] The Fed's tools are completely inadequate to a stagflationary environment. It's they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't. So what do they do? I I can't tell you what they will do. Uh I'm guessing that they will probably heir on the side of throwing the dollar under the bus. that meaning loosen make easy money easier to support the labor market.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed cut rates three times in late 2025 (totaling 175 bps since peak), resumed quantitative easing with $40B/month Treasury purchases, and the dollar (DXY) fell ~11% in H1 2025 to multi-year lows near 96-97 — broadly consistent with 'throwing the dollar under the bus' to support the labor market, even as inflation remained above target. (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)
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[15:14] My best guess is that the stag part will be fleeting and we probably go quickly into a more reflationary boom. And maybe then the Fed says, "Oh, you know, we need to fight inflation again." But by then it's too late. By then, Powell's hopes of being remembered as a vulker are out the window and he's going to be remembered as another Arthur Burns.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Rather than quickly transitioning to a reflationary boom, the US economy remained in 'stagflation lite' through mid-2026, with Q1 2026 GDP at 2.1% and Q2 at 1.5% annualized while PCE inflation ran at 3.7–5.1% — no boom, just persistent sluggish growth with elevated inflation. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0585)
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[28:26] somebody doesn't, you know, they missed it. They don't have any gold. They haven't bought any gold stocks. I am right now, my guidance is yes, I would buy at these levels because I I think we have a floor here. I I see relatively little downside.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a 'floor at current levels around $3,400 with relatively little downside,' meaning the predictor expected minimal decline from $3,473.7; however, the period low of $3,426.6 represents only a 1.4% decline from the prediction date price, which is minimal and supports the floor thesis, while the subsequent rise to $4,325.6 (+24.5%) by year-end confirms the bullish stance was correct.
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[32:28] I see more upside in silver than gold right now.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed silver has more upside potential than gold. Silver returned 74.8% while gold returned 28% over the one-year period, meaning silver significantly outperformed gold, making the prediction correct.
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[10:25] I do think that inflation from this is coming. But I understand the technical reason why Powell dismisses it. [...] So, I do think we're going to see this higher inflation or this bout of inflation near-term. I think that's coming
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
By the target date of September 18, 2025, US CPI inflation had risen to 3.0% annually (September) from around 2.7% in June/July, with the August reading at 2.9% — a clear near-term increase attributable in part to tariffs. The prediction that tariffs would cause a near-term inflation increase was correct. (https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/consumer-prices-up-3-0-percent-from-september-2024-to-september-2025.htm)
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[15:55] Are we suggesting that this regime is going to be perpetually bullish for gold in the next 2 3 years until at least Trump leaves office? Can we make that assessment? I think so. I think so.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[26:10] They're expecting two cuts this this year. Is that is that reasonable for you? I think there's a good chance we get no cuts.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction that the Fed would make no rate cuts in 2025 was wrong. The Fed actually made three consecutive quarter-point cuts starting in September 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)