10-Year Treasury Yield Predictions

[17:17] When we think about the 10-year Treasury, for example, we think it's probably going to hold uh in this four and a quarter to four and three/4er percent range. We're kind of at the high end of that range right now. Uh if the Fed hikes or it looks like they're going to hike, maybe there's some upside, but we think 5%'s probably kind of the cap there

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[3:43] I would not be surprised within the next 6 weeks if we hit over 5% in the 10-year notes because of this intervention.

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[18:06] It could easily hit 5%. You know, could be for 20 minutes, it could be for 20 days.

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[13:08] Going to see a steeper yield curve for quite a period. I think it's going to be difficult to get 10 years below four and a half%. I don't think they go crazy above 5%. So, I think 10 years to me are fairly rangebound, four and a half to 5%. Unless something changes in the economy.

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[3:03] I think we've hit a a temporary peak in the 10-year yield. And you know, the 10-year yield is inversely correlated with speculative names. It's also inversely correlated with tech stocks. And as a result, um now that the market um you know, tends to feel that the 10-year um has peaked which has been my view for the last few weeks although we finally got it now.

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[29:07] we're still about 100 110 basis points below uh uh the long run mean of term premia prior to the GFC. So if you just added that back to the bond the 10-year Treasury yield, we'd be 5.7% right now. That's fair value for 10-year treasuries.

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[4:02] there are a lot of those kind of technical indicators that have suggested that the tenure yield is too low is going to break out to the upside for quite some time now.

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[22:08] I think that the 10-years are going to see close to 6% before the year's over.

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[3:52] I expect to see the tenure notes get upwards north of 6% maybe this year.

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[24:00] I think short-term meaning months to a year or two, rates can work higher and even test or get above 5% on the 10-year.

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[18:17] I sold the 10-year notes at at 114. They're down to 109 or 108 now. So, that's a pretty big move and I expect them to go even lower.

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[32:10] I don't expect it to go much higher. And I think again with the economy potentially weakening later this year, it's very likely we could start heading down on yields over the next, let's say, 3 to 6 months.

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[23:11] I I I I mean I still think we inevitably retest 5%. Which is where we we got to in the in 2023.

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[16:06] We think normal GDP growth is likely set for a clip of between 6-7% going forward. Maybe a tad higher than that, but you know, the economy is on a roll at the moment and inflation clearly is a nagging problem. But that is going to mean that you're looking at something like a target of about 6% on the long on the long bond or the 10-year on the 10-year bond.

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[4:27] I think that'll help with the tenure. I think the 10year's peaked.

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[6:03] bonds are getting ready for another breakdown, meaning another move up in rates, I think that's coming. And so maybe we get the 10ear to break away from 4 and a.5% and then move up towards 5%

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[3:19] I think that we're probably going to see the 10-year yield, which is around a little under 450 right now, around 442 or so. It's probably going to trend towards 5%, I think, by the end of the year.

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[31:12] I think the 10year notes are going to 6% before the year. Okay. So, again, I think interest rates are going a lot higher.

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[37:29] The 10-year yield should go to could go to 6% over the next 6 to 12 months.

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[26:23] I don't see the 10-year Treasury coming down, not meaningfully, and some of that is the negatives of inflation and debt deficit financing it, but some of it is also just good economic growth.

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[32:39] I think you'll see we'll we'll be back at 4% pretty quick on the quickly on the 10-year. And I'm I'm saying we could be at 3% or below by the end of the year.

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[39:52] I expect the the 10 year to drop to zero the 30-year to drop to a quarter to a half percent.

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[14:53] 5% on the 10-year the 10year gets above 5% and the market hasn't at least corrected hard then don't don't ever listen to Peter Granwich again

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[30:29] The 10-year Treasury yield 4.3%. Uh, what's more likely? 4% or 5%. 3.9.

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[4:42] Watch the 10-year Treasury. We believe the 10-year Treasury is going to be is settling in in this 350 to 450 range and that's been our call now for a couple years. We think that's going to continue for the next 2 to 3 years.

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[6:56] it wouldn't surprise me if you see yields north of 5% um or more.

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[16:05] I think we're going to head towards that 10 note yield in China which is 1.85%. Currently in US is about 4.15%.

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[20:19] Yeah, but you could break 5% for a moment in time. Sure. Could be a panic.

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[15:11] I think on that basis and they've they've anticipated 30 to 70 basis points reduction in the 10-year yield once that's implemented that should be implemented sometime late this summer. uh that would bring the 10-year yield down to 350, 370

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[5:36] The 10 year and 30-year, I think they'll punch through 5%. That's my expectation, but not maybe by the end of the summer.

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[30:37] I would be a buyer of bonds, meaning I think yields are going to go lower... this is resistance, and it's going to reject price and price is going to fall. And in this case, it's the 10-year yield.

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[32:15] So I think 3.75% is a gimme. I think we're going to blow below that in the next 12 months. I wouldn't be surprised if we get into call it a a three to three and a half% range between now and this point next year.

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[21:09] eventually, this is my target on the 10-year yield. That's at 3.47, 3.45% on the 10 years.

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[22:26] I think you'll have one more turn in here where the where that 10year will go below four or somewhere in there

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