Anna Wong Predictions
Chief U.S. Economist, Bloomberg Economics
Track Anna Wong's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[9:43] I still see growth uh maintaining at above 2% this year very close to the the baseline and and the Fed's baseline
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[10:05] they came into the year with inflation core PCE falling to mid twos or 2.5 or 2.6 at the end of this year and now it looks like it will be closer to three or even higher than slightly higher than 3%.
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[10:25] the Fed will find uh as even under Kevin Wars who who wants to cut will find it very hard to to cut. So um and we so that's the gist of the growth picture just based on growth alone it is not weak enough to justify uh for uh for Kevin Ward to find evidence to cut.
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[11:51] I think Wall Street has very well priced in a peak inflation in for May. So what you have shown here is the May CPI print and if you look at the fixing it's pricing in a declining a disinflating year-over-year. So markets think that May is the peak. We also have have been saying that May is the peak. So inflation will be falling.
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[18:25] when I looked at capex cycle I found that they tend to last about 3 years on the way up and 3 years on the way down and right now we are in the very beginning of a new one. I actually see this hexic cycle having at least another one or two year to to go considering last year is the first year.
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[9:27] I think our baseline for the defense budget is it will increase by another at least 200 billion. And so it will be a 1.1 trillion budget that will add 6 percentage point to growth impulse heading into the new fiscal year after September 2026.
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[6:08] we are uh forecasting that about 100 billion will be dispersed this year. So now that adds .3 percentage point of growth impulse to the economy.
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