Michael Oliver Predictions

Technical Analyst and Author, Founder of Momentum Structural Analysis

Track Michael Oliver's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

43 forecasts 17% accuracy 2 correct 10 wrong 31 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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43 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Michael Oliver Gold Gold will not make a lower low than the June 2026 low
See quote
[6:46] I don't think gold and silver are going to make a lower low than they did in in June. U so that's a statement and it says something to me that money is starting to move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will not make a lower low than the June 2026 low
See quote
[6:46] I don't think gold and silver are going to make a lower low than they did in in June. U so that's a statement and it says something to me that money is starting to move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver Gold Miners Gold miners will outperform gold bullion, with their relative value potentially doubling versus gold to reach historical valuation norms
See quote
[5:32] You've now broken out above that. You did it in August. You broke out above that massive range, meaning by miners less than gold. Miners are going to beat gold now and likely they're going to return to some normality of prior valuation to an ounce of gold.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2028-09-30 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver's pullback is over and a dramatic, meteoric upside move is about to begin
See quote
[8:09] And so the pullback this year is far as I'm concerned is exhausted uh you better not see if you're a bear and there so many people are bearish or totally skeptical especially about silver... I think what's about to occur is far more meteoric and vertical than what we anybody expects.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2027-09-30 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver's September/Q3 2026 low will be a higher low than the summer low, marking the end of the correction
See quote
[10:02] I think that's where we are now. And our technical work argues we're that last low in the summer is probably the low. This is going to be probably a higher low than that one.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will dramatically outperform gold in the coming years, similar to its quintupling versus gold's tripling after the 2008 correction
See quote
[9:09] But once that drop was over, silver went from like uh 11 12 bucks to 50 again. You old high 50 back in 1980. So in 2011 it reached 50 again. It's like a quintupling. Okay. Whereas gold tripled... I think that's where we are now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2029-09-30 pending
Michael Oliver Gold Gold will reach $8,000–$9,000 in the current bull market cycle, and likely exceed that level
See quote
[26:21] If we went eightfold we merely matched what they' done before price before. Gold would be between 8 and 9,000. Yeah. Now I don't think it's going to stop there because we have a debt crisis.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2030-09-30 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will reach at least $500 in the current bull market cycle, with potential to exceed that level
See quote
[27:12] Five bucks to 50 is what? Tfold. Okay. What's tfold? That's $500 silver just to match the dimension of the range. Uh so now I'm not predicting 500. Frankly, I don't think it'll stop it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2030-09-30 pending
Michael Oliver Financial Sector Major bank stocks are at risk of a significant downside breakdown, with momentum structure pointing to a vacuum to the downside if prices remain at current levels into next quarter
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[27:43] the financial sector something's going on there guys and technically we're in a position on so many of the major banks right now talking of momentum now long-term momentum that if you're trading where you are right now with a day left in the quarter and you next quarter you're stay at these same price levels. You do not want to close a month around where you are right now. You better get out of here. And if you don't, you're going to blow momentum structure that says, 'I'm in a vacuum to the downside.'

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-09-30 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver Gold Miners Gold miners will rapidly appreciate in valuation versus gold, at minimum doubling the current GDX-to-gold spread ratio, as the spread breaks out above its 13-year resistance range
See quote
[5:44] we're going to see a rapid appreciation in the valuation of gold miners and silver miners versus gold. A catch-up back to old reality. And even if this rally only carries to the bottom end of what might have been what was the prior range that existed 1980, 1990, 2008, that period. Then you're going to double or more where this spread is right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2027-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Gold Miners Gold miners will outperform gold by approximately 2x during the current breakout move
See quote
[6:32] Gold goes up X amount, they go up 2X, okay? But there's another implication here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2027-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Gold Gold is about to have a dramatic price advance imminently, concurrent with the GDX-to-gold spread breakout
See quote
[7:23] it's also telling you you're about to have a dramatic price advance in the monetary metals themselves, with the miners vastly outperforming, of course.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2027-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Gold Gold will reach at least $8,000 to $9,000 if it matches prior bull market magnitudes, with potential to reach $10,000 to $20,000 given current macro conditions
See quote
[24:44] So, if gold you merely match the prior bull markets, it'd be 8,000 to 9,000. Merely matching those bull markets. With these conditions out there, it wouldn't have shocked me to see gold at 10,000 to 20,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2029-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver could rise to approximately $500, making it the most explosive market in terms of upside potential
See quote
[0:19] silver could go up to 500 bucks or so, you know, it wouldn't shock me. Silver is the most explosive market I can think of right now in terms of upside potential.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2029-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver AI Stocks AI stocks and semiconductors will lead the market downside, inverting from their recent leadership role
See quote
[13:28] While everybody's preoccupied with the semiconductors and AI stocks as the be-all and end-all. And ultimately, they'll lead the downside at some point because they were leaders in the last several years on the upside. They will invert and go the other way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2027-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver AI Stocks AI stocks and semiconductors have already seen their price high
See quote
[9:44] the semiconductors and AI stocks as the be-all and end-all. Uh I think they've seen their high, by the way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2027-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Financial Sector The financial sector ETFs (XLF and KBE) will break down below key momentum support levels this week, signaling an intermediate decline
See quote
[13:59] Technically, they are at levels this week that if we close out today about where we are now, they break through some intermediate momentum structures... You're well below that right now. They're going to break it this week, the banks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2026-08-28 pending
Michael Oliver S&P 500 If the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 drop 8-10% from their recent levels, a long-term bear market will commence as annual momentum trend structures break down
See quote
[16:22] The S&P and the NASDAQ 100 cannot afford basically about an 8 to 10% drop from where they closed last week. If they do, they will be blowing annual momentum trend structures. Very long-term momentum trends... You break that floor, it's over. Bear market commences.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2027-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Treasury Yields US government bonds are in a bear market, though central bank intervention will attempt to suppress yields
See quote
[12:36] I'm bearish on US government bonds, but I know that they'll come in with all the fire hoses they've got to save that beast.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2027-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Commodities Gold and silver will deliver jaw-dropping returns over the next several quarters
See quote
[38:38] I think it's a place to be. The stock sectors related to the commodities that we see in the complex. Uh but, I would emphasize right now on a shorter-term basis, meaning over the next several quarters, I think gold and silver will make you drop your jaw.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2027-05-21 pending
Michael Oliver Oil Oil will reprice significantly higher over at least the next couple of years as part of a broad commodity asset class repricing
See quote
[37:44] I don't think it's a short-term thing. I think it's something you should think in terms of a couple years at least. Uh it's a repricing of an asset category.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2028-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Commodities Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index) will be a strong-performing asset class over the next one to two years
See quote
[34:47] broadly speaking, I think it's a place to be over the next year or two, especially.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2028-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will experience a slingshot-effect outperformance due to its decades of underperformance relative to gold and money supply growth
See quote
[40:02] Silver has vastly underperformed. And, that's one of the reasons I think you're going to see the slingshot effect in silver. And, the miners as well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-08-22 2028-08-21 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will reach $300 to $500, potentially as early as summer 2026
See quote
[0:00] Michael Oliver is calling for $300 to $500 silver. He says it could happen on an aggressive timeline, potentially as early as this summer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-06-05 2026-09-30

The prediction claimed silver would reach $300-$500, but the period high was only $72.73 on the prediction date itself, and silver actually fell to a low of $55.01 during the period - nowhere near the $300-$500 target.
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will break out of its congestion zone in June 2026
See quote
[28:34] And that's what we're focused on right now. And I think that's likely to occur this month.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-06-05 2026-06-30

The prediction was bullish, claiming Silver would 'break out' of its congestion zone (upward breakout implied by bullish sentiment), but the price fell from $68.94 to a period low of $57.03, a decline of -17.3%, with the period high of $72.73 only occurring on the prediction date itself (day 0), showing no upside breakout occurred during the prediction window.
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will recover to the $72 to $74 zone within the next week (from June 5, 2026)
See quote
[8:50] Right now, we traded down in the 68s today. Okay, I'm going to tell you this. If next week you see it up in the 62 to uh excuse me, 72 to 74 zone and you're short, you better recover. Okay? Uh because you've had your three shots to break this market down into the 50 buck level or wherever you think it's going to go. Um and you failed.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-06-05 2026-06-12

Silver (SI=F) never reached the $72-74 zone during the prediction window (June 6-12). The lone $72.73 print was an intraday high on the prediction date itself (June 5, close $68.94), before any recovery. Over the following week silver fell instead — to a $63.74 low — and closed at $67.86 on the June 12 deadline. The forward-looking call (recover to $72-74) did not occur.
Michael Oliver S&P 500 The S&P 500 will pull back to 7,000 or lower by end of Q3 2026 or early Q4 2026
See quote
[29:30] our technical work says that the stock market has been in a topping process for a year, more than a year... our argument is on long-term metrics that right now the thing to watch for is any not a collapse, but any move that gets you back down, let's say by the end of the quarter, especially early next quarter. So, three, four weeks from now, gets you back down to 7,000 or lower, especially getting back below that price ceiling that we had.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-06-05 2026-09-30

The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would pull back to 7,000 or lower by end of Q3 2026 or early Q4 2026. The period low was $7,237.85 on 2026-06-09, which never reached 7,000 or lower, falling short of the specific price target claimed.
Michael Oliver Bitcoin Bitcoin will fall to $30,000
See quote
[31:08] we dropped to 60,000, had a rally, we're back to 60,000. That's more than a 50% drop. I think we're going to 30,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-06-05 2027-06-05 pending
Michael Oliver Gold Gold will be the primary beneficiary of a stock market decline and bond market crisis as the Fed is forced to print money
See quote
[38:44] I think the prime beneficiary will be gold because I know what the Fed's going to do, right? When the government bond market goes lower, higher yields, when certain private credit problems pop up here and there, one here, one there. All it takes is a headline or two. Uh, and then suddenly the Fed underneath the surface, while they won't be talking about it, will be doing something. Print, print, print.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-06-05 2027-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver Treasury Yields US Treasury bond yields will break above prior highs (prices will break below prior lows) in the near term
See quote
[20:25] We're going to punch through the yield highs. We're going to go through the price lows. And when you do that, the Fed, it's not one of their mandates. You know, it doesn't say we we're here to defend the government debt. Okay? But that's that's their mandate.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-06-05 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver Nvidia Nvidia will decline and provide a negative drag on the market, with a more significant collapse possible next quarter (Q3 2026)
See quote
[38:00] Nvidia is already looking weak to us. We're breaking certain key numbers right now on it that indicate it could provide a negative force. Uh not a collapse. Again, I'm thinking next quarter before you get the collapse effect.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-06-05 2026-09-30

The prediction claimed Nvidia would decline and provide a negative drag on the market, but NVDA rose 11.7% by the target date, and even the period low of $189.59 (on trading day 15) represents only a ~7.5% decline from $204.87 before recovering strongly to end up 11.7% higher—the bearish prediction of decline/collapse was not realized over the target window.
Michael Oliver 30-Year Treasury Yield The T-Bond market will break through price lows (yield highs), triggering a government bond market panic in the near term
See quote
[6:05] Our assessment is it's not going to hold this time that we're actually going to slip through and have a a bond market panic, but this time government bonds, biggest market in the world

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-05-16 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver S&P 500 The S&P 500 could implode through a critical momentum floor later in summer 2026
See quote
[17:51] when you open next quarter, one or two of our major long-term metrics, particularly quarterly momentum, will be sitting on a floor that you cannot see on a price chart, but on a momentum chart, if you saw that chart, you'd say, 'Good grief, you better not break that floor.' Because if you do, you're going to implode. And that could be an event that happens later this summer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-05-16 2026-09-30

The prediction claimed the S&P 500 could 'implode' through a critical momentum floor later in summer 2026, a strongly bearish claim. The period low was only 2.2% below the prediction date price ($7237.85 vs $7403.05), and by the target date the index was up 3.6%, with a period high of $7816.7 — no implosion occurred.
Michael Oliver Gold Gold will break out of its current congestion zone and move significantly higher, with much of the move visible by end of summer 2026
See quote
[11:00] gold will already be out of this congestion zone and silver will be well out of this congestion zone into the next massive multiple which we think is coming and largely might be seen fully or largely by the end of this summer. It's a very rapid event.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-05-16 2026-09-30

The prediction claimed gold would break out of its congestion zone and move 'significantly higher' by end of summer 2026. The period high was $4755.0 (a ~4.3% gain from $4558.0), which is a modest move upward but the period ended with a -7.6% decline to $4211.2, and the period low was $3955.4 (-13.2%). The prediction requires interpreting 'significantly higher' and 'out of congestion zone,' but even at the period high the move was only ~4.3% which is modest, and by target date gold was well below the prediction date price, making the bullish breakout claim wrong.
Michael Oliver Commodities Broad commodities (oil, grains, sugar, cotton) will advance in a major way over the next couple of years
See quote
[14:38] oil prices, grain prices, sugar prices, cotton prices, they're all in technical positions to advance in a major way over the next couple years because they're vastly undervalued.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-05-16 2028-05-14 pending
Michael Oliver Oil Oil will pull back into the $80s after its war-driven spike, but remains in a longer-term bull trend
See quote
[25:20] we turned bullish on oil at $65 in January based on momentum... oil is in a bull trend and it occurred before that war started. So when oil drops back down, let's say into the 80s and everybody applauds and says, 'Oh boy, happy time again.'

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Palisade Radio 2026-05-16 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver S&P 500 The S&P 500 may make higher highs in May 2026 than in April 2026
See quote
[5:42] The new highs we just saw, I think, are transient. I think it we we we thought it would occur and we thought that probably it would extend into this month and i suspect you may even make higher highs this month than you did last.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-05 2026-05-31

The prediction claimed higher highs in May 2026 than April 2026 (ATH reference $7272.52 on 2026-05-01); the period high reached $7599.38 on 2026-05-29, which exceeds the April high, confirming the prediction.
Michael Oliver S&P 500 The S&P 500 will enter a multi-year bear market lasting 2.5 to 3 years with at least a 50% decline
See quote
[13:03] multi-year bare trend? Sorry, multi-year bare trend. Yeah. But the question is what does it what is goes with it? What other assets go with it? Where will it how much down will it go? I don't know that I can say that most of the bare markets in US history of the last 100 years last two and a half to three years the dimension of the decline varies. Usually they're at least 50%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-05 2029-05-05 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will get back above $80 per ounce
See quote
[36:29] We think getting back over 80 again in silver is a table pounder.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-05 2026-08-31

The prediction claimed silver would get back above $80/oz, and the period high was $88.89 on trading day 6 (May 13, 2026), which clearly exceeded the $80 target during the prediction window.
Michael Oliver Gold Gold will get back above $4,800 per ounce
See quote
[36:38] gold get up you get you get above 4,800 again and I'd say you know wipe your brow if you've been panicked

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-05 2026-08-31

The prediction required gold to get above $4,800, but the period high was only $4,765.2 on trading day 5, which fell short of the $4,800 target.
Michael Oliver Treasury Market T-Bond prices will fall to 111 level and below, causing a mini panic in the bond market
See quote
[28:29] Now since since that chart we've dropped down to 112 area. you get down around 111 in price, which is that upper chart there. You can see it's probed down to 10750 back in 2023, but then there were two lows down just in the 111 since then that almost got to 110. You go back down to the 111 again, you're not going to hold. Okay? And I think you could get a mini panic.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-05 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver Silver Silver will reach as high as $500 by summer 2026
See quote
[0:00] Our assessment of this move in silver in particular is that it's going to a new reality. I think silver's going into several hundred dollar, may even go as high as 500. And I think it will do it by summer this year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-01-29 2026-08-31

The prediction claimed silver would reach as high as $500 by summer 2026, but the period high was only $121.30 on the prediction date itself, and silver actually fell 40.8% to $67.47 by the target date, never remotely approaching $500.
Michael Oliver S&P 500 The S&P 500 will peak in February 2026 and then enter a massive bear market
See quote
[32:52] Last three months we've been arguing it's got to continue up though. Get above 7,000 which it did today but probably even more probably at least get into February before it decides to roll over again. But we think it's a broad topping process of major proportions. is going into a massive bare market

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-01-29 2026-06-29

The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would peak in February 2026 and then enter a massive bear market, but the period high of $7620.90 occurred on June 2, 2026 (trading day 85), well after February, and the period low of $6316.91 represents only a ~9.4% decline from the prediction date price before recovering to close up 6.8% by the target date — not a 'massive bear market' by any standard definition (typically 20%+ decline).