Michael Oliver Predictions

[5:44] we're going to see a rapid appreciation in the valuation of gold miners and silver miners versus gold. A catch-up back to old reality. And even if this rally only carries to the bottom end of what might have been what was the prior range that existed 1980, 1990, 2008, that period. Then you're going to double or more where this spread is right now.

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[6:32] Gold goes up X amount, they go up 2X, okay? But there's another implication here.

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[7:23] it's also telling you you're about to have a dramatic price advance in the monetary metals themselves, with the miners vastly outperforming, of course.

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[24:44] So, if gold you merely match the prior bull markets, it'd be 8,000 to 9,000. Merely matching those bull markets. With these conditions out there, it wouldn't have shocked me to see gold at 10,000 to 20,000.

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[0:19] silver could go up to 500 bucks or so, you know, it wouldn't shock me. Silver is the most explosive market I can think of right now in terms of upside potential.

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[13:28] While everybody's preoccupied with the semiconductors and AI stocks as the be-all and end-all. And ultimately, they'll lead the downside at some point because they were leaders in the last several years on the upside. They will invert and go the other way.

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[9:44] the semiconductors and AI stocks as the be-all and end-all. Uh I think they've seen their high, by the way.

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[13:59] Technically, they are at levels this week that if we close out today about where we are now, they break through some intermediate momentum structures... You're well below that right now. They're going to break it this week, the banks.

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[16:22] The S&P and the NASDAQ 100 cannot afford basically about an 8 to 10% drop from where they closed last week. If they do, they will be blowing annual momentum trend structures. Very long-term momentum trends... You break that floor, it's over. Bear market commences.

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[12:36] I'm bearish on US government bonds, but I know that they'll come in with all the fire hoses they've got to save that beast.

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[38:38] I think it's a place to be. The stock sectors related to the commodities that we see in the complex. Uh but, I would emphasize right now on a shorter-term basis, meaning over the next several quarters, I think gold and silver will make you drop your jaw.

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[37:44] I don't think it's a short-term thing. I think it's something you should think in terms of a couple years at least. Uh it's a repricing of an asset category.

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[34:47] broadly speaking, I think it's a place to be over the next year or two, especially.

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[40:02] Silver has vastly underperformed. And, that's one of the reasons I think you're going to see the slingshot effect in silver. And, the miners as well.

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[0:00] Michael Oliver is calling for $300 to $500 silver. He says it could happen on an aggressive timeline, potentially as early as this summer.

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[28:34] And that's what we're focused on right now. And I think that's likely to occur this month.

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[8:50] Right now, we traded down in the 68s today. Okay, I'm going to tell you this. If next week you see it up in the 62 to uh excuse me, 72 to 74 zone and you're short, you better recover. Okay? Uh because you've had your three shots to break this market down into the 50 buck level or wherever you think it's going to go. Um and you failed.

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[29:30] our technical work says that the stock market has been in a topping process for a year, more than a year... our argument is on long-term metrics that right now the thing to watch for is any not a collapse, but any move that gets you back down, let's say by the end of the quarter, especially early next quarter. So, three, four weeks from now, gets you back down to 7,000 or lower, especially getting back below that price ceiling that we had.

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[31:08] we dropped to 60,000, had a rally, we're back to 60,000. That's more than a 50% drop. I think we're going to 30,000.

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[38:44] I think the prime beneficiary will be gold because I know what the Fed's going to do, right? When the government bond market goes lower, higher yields, when certain private credit problems pop up here and there, one here, one there. All it takes is a headline or two. Uh, and then suddenly the Fed underneath the surface, while they won't be talking about it, will be doing something. Print, print, print.

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[20:25] We're going to punch through the yield highs. We're going to go through the price lows. And when you do that, the Fed, it's not one of their mandates. You know, it doesn't say we we're here to defend the government debt. Okay? But that's that's their mandate.

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[38:00] Nvidia is already looking weak to us. We're breaking certain key numbers right now on it that indicate it could provide a negative force. Uh not a collapse. Again, I'm thinking next quarter before you get the collapse effect.

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[6:05] Our assessment is it's not going to hold this time that we're actually going to slip through and have a a bond market panic, but this time government bonds, biggest market in the world

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[17:51] when you open next quarter, one or two of our major long-term metrics, particularly quarterly momentum, will be sitting on a floor that you cannot see on a price chart, but on a momentum chart, if you saw that chart, you'd say, 'Good grief, you better not break that floor.' Because if you do, you're going to implode. And that could be an event that happens later this summer.

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[11:00] gold will already be out of this congestion zone and silver will be well out of this congestion zone into the next massive multiple which we think is coming and largely might be seen fully or largely by the end of this summer. It's a very rapid event.

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[14:38] oil prices, grain prices, sugar prices, cotton prices, they're all in technical positions to advance in a major way over the next couple years because they're vastly undervalued.

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[25:20] we turned bullish on oil at $65 in January based on momentum... oil is in a bull trend and it occurred before that war started. So when oil drops back down, let's say into the 80s and everybody applauds and says, 'Oh boy, happy time again.'

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[5:42] The new highs we just saw, I think, are transient. I think it we we we thought it would occur and we thought that probably it would extend into this month and i suspect you may even make higher highs this month than you did last.

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[13:03] multi-year bare trend? Sorry, multi-year bare trend. Yeah. But the question is what does it what is goes with it? What other assets go with it? Where will it how much down will it go? I don't know that I can say that most of the bare markets in US history of the last 100 years last two and a half to three years the dimension of the decline varies. Usually they're at least 50%.

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[36:29] We think getting back over 80 again in silver is a table pounder.

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[36:38] gold get up you get you get above 4,800 again and I'd say you know wipe your brow if you've been panicked

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[28:29] Now since since that chart we've dropped down to 112 area. you get down around 111 in price, which is that upper chart there. You can see it's probed down to 10750 back in 2023, but then there were two lows down just in the 111 since then that almost got to 110. You go back down to the 111 again, you're not going to hold. Okay? And I think you could get a mini panic.

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[0:00] Our assessment of this move in silver in particular is that it's going to a new reality. I think silver's going into several hundred dollar, may even go as high as 500. And I think it will do it by summer this year.

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[32:52] Last three months we've been arguing it's got to continue up though. Get above 7,000 which it did today but probably even more probably at least get into February before it decides to roll over again. But we think it's a broad topping process of major proportions. is going into a massive bare market

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