Oil Predictions

[19:53] I fully expect that December crude oil contract which is the top and open interest will be front month um around midterms is around $80 a barrel right now to be closer to 50.

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[36:07] the fundamentals of the the energy um sector of the, you know, crude oil suggest crude oil should probably be trading $150 a barrel right now... it's pretty obvious that we we're going to see much you know in in the months ahead uh a further breakout in the oil price

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[6:04] I think latest latest by late summer, early autumn, we will get uh a severe oil price shock where the shortages are really so uh uh uh intense that that uh people who need the physical oil are willing to pay much higher prices.

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[11:04] I think over the next few days weeks latest let's say two 3 months maybe I think we're going to see another oil spike spike. Yes.

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[33:46] I think oil's going back down to $60.

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[21:08] the people that think if we settle up with Iran that the price of oil is going to go back to 60 bucks a barrel, they are they are either drinking the wrong thing or smoking the wrong thing.

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[25:14] I actually think it's probably preferable for the the oil companies for it to settle in at 80 to 100 bucks a barrel for an extended period of time

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[26:38] the demand for oil and gas is is is going to probably rise a little bit each year with the population of the world going up

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[36:07] over the short to medium term, I think there's probably upside to oil prices and simply by virtue of the fact that if you got a resolution and you opened up the straight of Hormuz tomorrow. Well, the Kuwaitis and the Iraqis have said that it's going to take them a little bit longer to ramp up production. The Saudis won't even be able to do it right away. And so you're not going to see this 10 to 15 million barrels per day of supply that's been shut in. You're not going to see it snap back overnight... in the meantime, while all that is happening, you'll continue to run down inventories a little bit... certainly we see a little bit more upside rather than downside.

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[4:41] I've been in the camp of no, that's not going to happen around the 70 to $80 mark by the end of the year. And I say that because we're already looking at oil prices um in the low 90s now.

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[21:35] oil WTI is not going back to 65 bucks a barrel anytime soon... I think we're going to land somewhere between 80 and 85 bucks a barrel for WTI

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[2:51] I don't think we will see but I don't think we'll see the oil price stay down for very long.

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[12:58] I think oil's going a lot higher and so are bond yields. Even if the war ends, uh, which, you know, who knows if that's actually going to happen anytime soon, but even if it does, uh, I think that these trends are going to remain in place.

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[8:35] Are we going to hit $150 oil? No, I don't think so. And here's why. Because both US and Iran want out of this for different reasons.

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[23:03] we're just kind of bullish on commodities, bullish on oil prices. Yes, they could pull back um uh short-term if there's a u a sessation of activities, but we're still uh uh bullish on oil prices.

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[30:30] I do think oil's probably going a lot higher. I I suspect we're going to go above $14 what $7 was the all-time high. I suspect we're going to go above that during this um this bull market for commodities.

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[27:37] my base case is that hormones never returns to normal flows. And there are many reasons for that. The first is political. If if I am Iran and I now control the straight of Hormuz, which gives me it makes me the most powerful country in the world essentially... Why would I ever give that up?

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[5:39] all that means is that there's a lag and and it it's coming to us as well... we're getting very close to running out of our savings account. And once that happens, then we got no money.

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[33:37] Would I be long oil at these levels? Not very not not a lot. I would be very very worried about such level of deep backwardation in the forward curve. But that doesn't mean that oil prices are going to go to $50 a barrel. they would only go to 50 if obviously there is a financial crisis as in 2008 and I don't see that happening

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[8:05] We don't have but a couple of more weeks, maybe a month that we could keep doing that before the the cumulative impact of the straight being closed is going to lead to real supply constraints in the oil market.

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[28:41] I think we will see oil back down into the 70s based on oil flowing through the straight.

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[17:40] once they realize that in the next three or six months, I think you get another leg up on oil because they'll finally figure out that hey, and maybe the straits never go back like they were.

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[25:20] we turned bullish on oil at $65 in January based on momentum... oil is in a bull trend and it occurred before that war started. So when oil drops back down, let's say into the 80s and everybody applauds and says, 'Oh boy, happy time again.'

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[25:55] I think I think oil at $150 is much more likely than $60. I think we might not see oil at $60 again until the next very bad recession. So I think I think 150 is in the cards. Frankly, in between now and year end, we could see oil at, like we said, 200, 250.

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[10:29] To be clear, the 250 call is not directly from the Strait of Hormuz. Like that may be the trigger. It's more of a cyclical call that cyclicals tend to go to an all-time high inflation-adjusted price at the top of each major cycle and we've been near the bottom of the oil cycle. Maybe the bottom for was 2020 where prices went negative and so after setting up with a unrealistically negative price, I think we're set up for a potentially unrealistically high oil price, 250 or higher.

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[19:42] gasoline prices may actually come down a little bit here even as oil rises because we're in turnaround season right now for refiners... you're going to see the gasoline market loosen, and you should see prices fall materially, at least relative to the price of oil, to the extent that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

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[24:17] the rig count that we're showing is inflecting. And so, it's rising and it's about to rise quite rapidly, uh, perhaps more rapidly than it fell in early and mid 2025.

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[20:48] Our our view personally is I think we're going to have, you know, $100 oil on average for the rest of this year.

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[27:49] I believe over the next 10 to 15 years if the oil price goes up with you know inflation and and goes up nominally 3 to 5% a year the oil price can be in the low triple digits

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[27:02] Look, I think the direction of travel for oil is lower... do I want to be long the price of oil in 12 months or short it from today? Of course, I'd want to be shorted.

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[36:30] I don't think that OPEC breaking up is the death of the petro dollar. I think it's the death of OPEC. Something we have been calling for and others have been calling for for a long time.

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[12:37] even if there's no resumed finding, you're going to see basically this war taking a big knock on the global economy to the extent that oil prices will probably be sharply higher. So, this is the this is why actually, ironically, you know what?

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Kempfer gives his contrarian 6-month forecast for the Strait of Hormuz and explains why investors should actually be preparing for a dramatic drop in oil prices.

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[4:28] I think, uh, you know, oil prices were looking at higher for longer. If we use the sports phrase, if we look at the overunder, I'll take the over.

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[14:05] It's going to go from 100 to 150, 180, 200 in a very short period of time. When is that? I don't know. Uh uh 2 months, 3 months, 1 month.

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[3:07] yes the front end of oil is coming down. I think we're below 90 or right around 90 um on Thursday on WTI. But I think some of the other longer term contracts are still fairly elevated. So I think we're going to be kind of dealing with this higher for longer. It's going to take a lot of time for the Middle East to rebuild their energy production.

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[14:00] UAE has announced its departure from OPEC. So oil is just going to come onto the market and flood the market um really quickly. So the prices then in six months time should be a reflection and we should be seeing deflation in the gas prices again.

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[17:19] the thought that the oil price is going to stay at record lows relative to M2, relative to gold, relative to anything else and basically stay undervalued persist dramatically undervalued persistently and definitely into the future is probably wishful thinking at best.

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[9:51] I would expect to see oil if everything works out properly I would expect to see oil back in the 60s before the year is out. Okay, that's what shows up in the chart. That's what shows up in the in in the formation going out to because in in December oil is under $70 a barrel right now.

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[26:59] And we're looking at $200 a barrel before we're through. I think I think we'll be at 150 before the summer's end and probably by the end of the year close to 200, maybe more.

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[24:35] I think oil is going to stay elevated for a while. I think it's going to stay, you know, probably above 88 and and you know, 120.

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[15:16] I understand that oil prices, in fact, I don't think the market is properly pricing in how persistently high interest rates are going to oil prices are going to stay, meaning put upward pressure on goods inflation. I don't think the market is fully priced in the destruction to the infrastructure in the Middle East and how long it's going to take to get energy prices back down.

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[19:09] So So what it means is lower oil prices at at some point. Not not right now, by the way. Not right now. Right. Right now, you want to be long because there'll be more spikes as the straight remains shut.

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[24:02] you want to be long in the short and intermediate run because we we have had the the straight shut off but what's going on is pretty simple economics we've we've had a loss of about 14.5 million barrels a day that that don't that are not coming through, but the demand destruction due to the fact that the price has gone up is has not been that great. And the and the reason that the demand destruction isn't that great is that the price elasticity, the sensitivity of the demand, the quantity demanded of oil to prices is is is pretty sticky. It isn't very sensitive. Price goes up and demand goes down a little bit because of the price movement. You destroy a little demand but not very much. And as a result the you can see this by the way because the inventory drawd down is is about 11 to 12 million barrels a day. So in for in fact the demand destruction because of the price increase has only been about 2 and a half to three and a half million barrels a day. And and and to reach equilibrium they have to be about 14 12. It's it's only about two and a half to three and a half. So what's going to happen? We we're drawing down in price goes up that destroys a little demand and we live off declining inventories. We suck down inventory. Suck down in what happens when the inventories go up. The price jumps up. So we're going to see some price spikes coming. That's why you want to be long oil because because of the inventory draw down.

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[10:40] I have a picture of my I think then 5-year-old daughter in front of minus $38 oil and I said show this to your grandkids when you're paying $1,000 a barrel for it.

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[14:54] there'll be probably $5 or $10 of premium embedded in price. So as I said 27 oil today is $73. That's a great price. I don't really think it goes much lower

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[23:47] they're they're looking at $130 uh per barrel probably by May and you know, the end of May. Um, and you know, probably by the um by the second half of this year, early into the second half of this year, um you're probably looking at 150 bucks a barrel.

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[37:16] base case right now um I had you know I haven't updated my uh probability I I'd have to redo my uh priors. I've been waiting for for new data on on oil supply. Uh but um right now we're at like a hundred bucks a barrel uh for the rest of the year on average uh for frontline uh Brent.

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[0:20] we do see this um standoff between Iran and the US persist into the second half of the year. um and prices really start moving higher to destroy demand.

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[10:00] it seems to me that oil is underpriced uh right now at $90 a barrel. If you look at the futures markets, both Brent and uh uh WTI, uh they're in backwardation. In other words, you look at oil several months ahead, it's a lot cheaper than it is on the on on the front month, which seems to be saying that the market thinks that uh oil itself is going to get cheaper. That 6 months from now it's going to be $80 or $70 a barrel, something like that. I don't think so. I think that it's actually going to go much higher

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[25:44] They don't believe high oil prices are sustainable long term because the market will correct as it always does. these geopolitical events always correct themselves

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[27:18] we think the futures prices are going to have to rise. So we think the average oil company is discounting something like 65 or 70 today and they probably should discount something like 80

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[1:42] I suggested to you that the oil price could easily be $90 a barrel in 2029.

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[12:50] oil settles $70 a barrel

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[11:16] I don't think we are not going back to $60 to $65 a barrel which a lot of these stocks were priced for

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[24:10] I think in another week or so I think our prices will will naturally grow up go up. I think initially the shortages hit uh uh Asia first.

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[4:38] I think what you're going to get, David, is it's going to be higher for longer than people expect that it is. [...] we think that oil will continue to be a good something you should look at

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[4:27] looking further out for reasons that you and I discussed as much as a year ago, namely the deferral of a billion dollars a day in sustaining capital, the prices that you see today will likely be present in 2029

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[33:00] when you start to see the year-over-year change in oil turn negative, which it's probably going to within the next few quarters

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[29:18] I'm inclined to up and the reason is uh these physical shortages they're not going to be resolved... So, the answer is up.

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[2:43] all things being equal i would think oil will be back in the 60s before the third quarter.

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[8:07] I think it stays around $100 a barrel, maybe even higher depending on how much of the infrastructure they destroy in Iran in these next three weeks.

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[14:48] Even if the war ends, we know that a lot of uh countries are going to be looking to increase their stockpiles of oil. So, they'll still be buying for that uh reason. It'll probably still be a geopolitical risk premium associated with oil. So prices could fall enough to help us avoid a recession, but they're not going back to where they were in February.

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[7:24] So, I do think that oil prices are not going back to the 60 $65 range uh where it was before the war. I think 8085 is the new 6065.

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[37:33] I say it's going to come online faster than skeptics think, but it still will take a long time. Um I think the first half a million barrels a day will be easier than most people realize to bring online.

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[11:43] Based on the chart pattern right now, the first major level is 140.

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[6:49] I do think that oil number comes down significantly within a week or two. I do think there will be a resolution here.

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[26:34] I think that you probably will see at some point over the next month or so oil prices coming back down.

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[6:47] in the longer run over the course of this year, I think oil is going

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[32:12] The long-term real price of oil will be lower from here. um especially if the top is already in.

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[6:09] what markets are expecting, this will be a fairly short-lived event and then we're going to get back to business of growing the economy.

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[0:11] I think this is the year I finally get to my $40 barrel call in crude oil.

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[3:43] I would expect a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel.

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[12:03] which means we continue to price this in as a shock rather than a structural change.

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[3:01] a year from now, oil is trading at $69.

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[22:29] So, I think that the high for oil is going to be in for at least for a couple months. And I I I can say that with a lot of conviction because we we study capitulation moments um scientifically and the move today is is um very very unusual. So yeah, I think the highs for for the year are probably in

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[27:39] We've already said that the price of gasoline has gone up about 50 cents on average in the United States in the last few weeks and and it will go up. It'll continue to go up because as you just said, we had a West Texas Intermediate crude hit a hit a 52- week high today.

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[3:36] At this point, I kind of think that's what's going to happen. And I think we'll fall back down into this range.

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[20:40] And then a year or so's time after that, it'll be oil and oil's going to go ballistic. Not soon, I don't think. But it will go ballistic at some point

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[8:30] We could be in a year or two, even if the economy slides into recession. Oil could be $100 per barrel. That would not shock me one bit.

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[34:12] if we talk again a couple of years from now, I would imagine that we're seeing uh oil trading at least up into the 80s, perhaps in the '90s.

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[31:32] we expected oil to bottom in Q1.

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[5:56] I think oil prices are headed up.

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[31:34] And then in I 18 months, two years, oil's going to go mental.

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[25:54] this to me is like likely going to be a continued big rally here to the upside. But great breakout on oil. I'm a big bull on oil

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[23:38] I think the oil price is going to 85 or 90.

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[20:01] My favorite commodity for 2026 though is oil. I think at $56 a barrel for WTI, it's probably one of the cheapest assets in the world and finding it a very attractive place to invest right now

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[21:10] I would suggest to you David that peak oil demand doesn't occur in my lifetime and probably not in yours.

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[34:44] I think that oil crude oil prices are probably going to be still struggle to go up. I think they're going to continue to maybe be sideways to down. I think the supply demand in crude oil is still still kind of weak.

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[27:43] more pressure downwards. Um there's nothing no bullish catalyst on the horizon that we see. there's just so much of it, David.

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[32:35] it could be significantly higher in the next three to five years but let's just say it's higher a hundred dollars a barrel maybe$1und whatever

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[10:32] And I think crude oil is going back to 40.

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[0:00] I think there's really only one way this resolves from a price perspective. And I think it's just a matter of time before we get into an environment where we hit multiple all-time highs.

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[16:00] I think there is geopolitical risk. I think it's not priced in. And like we were saying, I think even just modestly better energy and trade policy by the US could give us back, you know, 10 or $15 of price even in a situation where you have OPEC bringing back on supply. So I think there's some real nice asymmetry here. And again, I don't think that oil should necessarily be $100 here with the current supply demand dynamic, but I think the path towards marginal sanctions enforcement on Iran and sort of normalization, uh, I think there's a decent shot at sort of a $75 plus oil price through the end of the year.

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[30:38] I think we're probably going to see oil back down at 56 $57.

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[21:03] we feel like that that's the next that's the next move you'll get from oil over the next 12 months it'll perk up.

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[11:27] looked like crude oil to me was going to head to $40 a barrel. Now we have a good reason to do that.

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[12:13] Oil's going to 50 bucks. Like you just pulled it off. I don't know who's buying oil at 61, but they don't like money.

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[27:13] There's a very critical line in the sand around the $65 per barrel area, which I believe it's going to break at some point... So I believe we're going to see oil break down.

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