Cameron Dawson Predictions
Chief Investment Officer, NewEdge Wealth
Track Cameron Dawson's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[3:51] we're running at a pace of 35% growth for 2026. Really incredible. That's going to fall by more than half as we get into 27. growth should fall to about 15% is what current consensus is.
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[3:40] Look at this quarter for 3Q. You have semiconductors that are going to grow earnings by 130% is the consensus expectation.
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[16:32] Semiconductor earnings are going to grow over 100% this year. Appreciate that the semiconductor margin will expand from 30% to 46% 16 percentage points of margin expansion.
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[30:16] the downtrend in yields that persisted from for 40 years from 1982 to 2022 is over. It is dead. It is over... we are no longer in a world where yields are steadily on the decline... these distinct uptrends remain and it just suggests that that the this world of a higher cost of capital is going to persist.
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[29:13] Short-term the yields are overbought and you can see that in the 10 year, the 30-year, 2-year even. And so we wouldn't be surprised if you saw some consolidation in yields.
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[16:15] we started the year with hyperscalers expecting to grow capex by under 30% and now that number is close to 100% growth for capex for 2026.
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[17:12] anytime you add capacity into any kind of relatively commoditized business, you typically do see downward pressure on prices, which results in lower gross margins, which results in lower operating margins... if you see demand slow even slightly for semiconductors, for memory names, you could actually see a lot of deleveraging uh instead of operating leverage, operating delever.
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[25:53] the stocks are going to peak before the fundamentals and there's going to be a period of cognitive dissonance where the fundamentals actually keep looking better and better on the surface. Now there you know will likely be cracks under the surface but that the stocks will be will be peaking before that.
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[8:26] They're going to have to issue even more debt in 2027. Free cash flow numbers are going to go uh even deeper negative.
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[3:02] to start October some of that is snapping back we're starting to see the everything else start to have a bit of a snapback. A lot of those areas got slightly oversold. Seasonality has now turned from being a headwind in September to now a tailwind in October. So, it's possible that at least over the course as we move through this earning season, we could see some of the breadth return to this market.
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[16:33] don't be surprised if we either retest the March low or retest the 200 day moving average because there's just that heaviness in the trading where you haven't, you know, the the the buyers haven't been able to to get the price back over to the 50-day to, you know, get it into that short-term uptrend, which just suggests that you're in that digestion period after a really powerful parabolic move
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[33:59] we've actually now tipped into negative real wage growth uh based on the on the recent employment data uh as well as the recent inflation data. And so that that would suggest that consumers um you are getting to a point where they could potentially start to actually pull back on spending in a more meaningful way.
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[38:17] I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I'm just saying there's so many tailwinds right now. It's it's a it's dangerous to just stand in front of that juggernaut until at least you see evidence that things are starting to deteriorate in the big numbers.
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[38:17] you know like okay we you know we got OBBB tax you know refunds um now we're going to be doing tariff refunds the deficit's going to get worse so you know it's it's harder for you know if you dip into a recession and you're already doing that much fiscal um boy oh boy like that's a that would be quite a feat
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