Recession Predictions
Browse Recession market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[25:16] I think uh we will have be having by the end of this year recession nearly everywhere but the real recession will be next year. That's when the recession will get polite. will be deep
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[24:14] Doesn't look like it... maybe that's 27 or late 26. Uh, I don't know. I think we'll sort of know when we get there. But uh until that time, I think the speculative nature just pushes pushes pushes
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[26:30] Will there be a recession? Yes. But where will that recession be? It'll be in the rest of the world. Okay, good. It's not in the US.
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[30:57] I think we move into recession late this year, early next and into a bust uh for much of next year probably.
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[18:16] I think that recession risks are higher than most people priced it. And I think the inflation that people are all freaking out about, including the Fed, is going to hit the wall in the labor market.
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[38:17] you know like okay we you know we got OBBB tax you know refunds um now we're going to be doing tariff refunds the deficit's going to get worse so you know it's it's harder for you know if you dip into a recession and you're already doing that much fiscal um boy oh boy like that's a that would be quite a feat
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[22:38] we have not repealed the business cycle. A recession is going to happen in our future. We are going to have a credit crisis.
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[5:35] And I'll tell you right now that a recession is probably off the table uh for the next several quarters uh just from all these spending commitments alone.
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[14:40] then all of a sudden recession risk rises sharply this year and the Fed's going to have to cut.
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[10:44] I think you know to see a global recession uh can all of a sudden becomes quite probable
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[38:37] I think we're looking at um you know a longer cycle and a more painful cycle than we did in '08.
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[19:07] Well I I the damn six months for I doubt it the next six months.
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[28:28] I think that the recession that we're currently in might not be acknowledged for a few years, but
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[35:22] it sounds like it's still a re a business recession is still in place and I think the tariffs is is just going to exacerbate that situation.
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[18:39] What does the surprise look like in your in your view? surprise looks like u an outright recession. The recession that didn't come in 2022 2023.
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The US did not experience a recession in 2025. Real GDP grew 2.2% for the full year, with strong Q2 (+3.8%) and Q3 (+4.4%) growth, and Q4 slowing to just 0.7% annualized. No NBER recession was declared. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025)
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[1:15] I believe that as things are set up now, I don't see an out a way out of not having a recession. All of these steps are taking us to that point.
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