Recession Predictions

[27:20] the collapse in the bond market, the the fracturing of the bond market is going to bring us to sector 2 and sector one... and at some point next year when you're in sector one

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[3:57] We're still expecting a recession at some point. We've become much more cautious about it. Obviously, the recession hasn't emerged as soon as we thought it would. Uh and what our view is now is that yes, we probably will have a recession sometime between now and 2028. So possibly emerging in 2027, but I'll get back to that timing in a second.

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[10:51] The only times when we see that take place are periods just before recession or just before the Federal Reserve turns around and cuts rates... when you see the 2-year 10-year spread get this flat and head down toward even lower levels, it usually precedes a recession.

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[32:38] I think it could last with the capex from AI maybe to 2030. But at some point you have a crash and we know that's a crash off drugs or the patient dies which is the worst scenario.

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[27:35] if we do get a breakout that that's something that that I don't think people are are expecting... you could get a situation where interest rates go up and it brings forward recession risk... that's the supernova effect... You go from a supernova sun to a really a burnout and a recession comes in fast because of hot inflation because of high interest rates

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[22:33] In my view it's already in recession but it doesn't show up in the stock market yet.

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[37:02] he's focused on the current two trillion deficit that we have right now and he says when we go into recession next that's going to be like a six trillion deficit, right?... I would totally agree long story short with Mike Pento's point that uh that deficit number in the next recession is going to be enormous.

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[28:01] we're in a very steep um global recession area which will pick up after 26 into 28. That will be probably the bottom.

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[29:27] you could have recessions from time to time. And and it's going to be more difficult to to avoid them, I believe, than during the favorable in the during the period of globalization.

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[18:25] the next recession is going to quickly, in my opinion, manifest or metastasize into a depression given how elevated asset prices are relative to normal levels. So, I I've coined the phrase a triumvirate of bubbles. We've got a massive credit bubble. We've got a massive real estate bubble. And we have a massive equity bubble bubble all existing concurrently for the first time in history. So, when we have a recession, number one, it's going it's going to be very trenchant, very deep, very acute, could be a depression.

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[28:16] I suspect the mainstream media will start to figure this out sometime in the fall, uh, early winter.

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[27:13] Uh yeah, I'd be surprised if there was a recession this year or in the next 12 months.

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[32:59] I think there's probably underlying momentum that may keep uh the US out of recession uh because the underlying trend in the economy be so good.

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[21:09] I think he's absolutely right when he says that uh Bet and Powell is way way way too late. And I actually think that the regime that he has been carrying along with him, Pal, is going to be changed.

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[28:46] a recession in in the relatively near term is highly unlikely as long as the spending that is going on right now continues at this magnitude. So, you know, you referenced the AI capex spending.

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[29:29] Yeah. No, I think we could if folks are on your your channel using the R word. Um just tell them to punt it into the ocean at least until late next year. Just take the R word, punt it into the ocean

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[25:16] I think uh we will have be having by the end of this year recession nearly everywhere but the real recession will be next year. That's when the recession will get polite. will be deep

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[24:14] Doesn't look like it... maybe that's 27 or late 26. Uh, I don't know. I think we'll sort of know when we get there. But uh until that time, I think the speculative nature just pushes pushes pushes

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[26:30] Will there be a recession? Yes. But where will that recession be? It'll be in the rest of the world. Okay, good. It's not in the US.

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[30:57] I think we move into recession late this year, early next and into a bust uh for much of next year probably.

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[18:16] I think that recession risks are higher than most people priced it. And I think the inflation that people are all freaking out about, including the Fed, is going to hit the wall in the labor market.

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[38:17] you know like okay we you know we got OBBB tax you know refunds um now we're going to be doing tariff refunds the deficit's going to get worse so you know it's it's harder for you know if you dip into a recession and you're already doing that much fiscal um boy oh boy like that's a that would be quite a feat

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[22:38] we have not repealed the business cycle. A recession is going to happen in our future. We are going to have a credit crisis.

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[5:35] And I'll tell you right now that a recession is probably off the table uh for the next several quarters uh just from all these spending commitments alone.

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[14:40] then all of a sudden recession risk rises sharply this year and the Fed's going to have to cut.

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[10:44] I think you know to see a global recession uh can all of a sudden becomes quite probable

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[38:37] I think we're looking at um you know a longer cycle and a more painful cycle than we did in '08.

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[19:07] Well I I the damn six months for I doubt it the next six months.

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[28:28] I think that the recession that we're currently in might not be acknowledged for a few years, but

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[35:22] it sounds like it's still a re a business recession is still in place and I think the tariffs is is just going to exacerbate that situation.

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[18:39] What does the surprise look like in your in your view? surprise looks like u an outright recession. The recession that didn't come in 2022 2023.

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[1:15] I believe that as things are set up now, I don't see an out a way out of not having a recession. All of these steps are taking us to that point.

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