US Economy Predictions

[10:10] if we have a nasty bare market cuz the hyperscaling capex game ends. Um, are they going to buy 10 years? They historically do when they get scared. Is that going to help the mortgage market? Yeah. we could actually see a pickup in the US economy while we have a pretty nasty risk asset market comparatively.

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[1:57] I worry about the situation where we end up in this overtightening scenario. Um because as I mentioned the broader economy is sort of lukewarm right now and is really only the AI economy that is running red-hot... we're going to run into this situation where an overtightening um causes the the broader lukewarm economy to actually slow. And then if we see any hiccup on the AI side, well, the economy is going to be in a pretty bad place. And I could see a situation where we get that growth scare.

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[21:07] I think what I'm feel is going to happen in the election moves into 2027 and then I think then we'll have a dramatic slowdown.

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[35:29] All of those cuts in the big beautiful bill were geared to come into being in the fourth quarter of 2026 and early 2027 after the congressional elections. Now, you're starting to see some of those cutbacks now, but over the next six to nine months, you're going to see a massive reduction in government spending in the United States. That's going to have a major negative impact on economic activity in the United States.

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[0:00] Q2 of next year is going to be nasty. That's going to be the big GDP slowdown and that's the one that you want to be watching.

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[26:32] what will cause a slowdown as I said I think rates and oil will continue to go up until until we get a until the market breaks and we will get a recession

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[27:39] I think you're looking at best case stagflation and it may be a stagflationary recession

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[16:21] I dare say that Scott Besson's not quite finished with some of the things that he can do for the bond market.

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[9:27] the percentage of unemployed Americans now who've been out of work for 27 weeks or more, that surpassed the number of job levers in the August report. Meaning we are already in recessionary territory when you look at the scarring that's occurred in the job market. Normally when permanent job losses surpass that of individuals switching to get a different job, you are in the teeth of a recession.

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[1:20] I think we are close. I think that the uh worldwide economy is uh suffering from financial distress throughout the economy.

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[33:46] we're going to reach a breaking point and they but they're probably want that breaking point to occur after the election.

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[21:21] I think that we are going to be slowing down precipitously.

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[24:10] I I think we're in for a generation of tougher times. Let's understand that we've been living beyond our means for decades here in the US.

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[10:44] We may enter into distress because of the high interest rate policy, and that would create a catastrophic slowdown in economic activity that the Fed would then be forced to respond to by rapidly lowering interest rates.

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[19:30] 80% of the time the economy slows down... after midterms when the party in power loses control of the legislative process and the executive branch

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[6:31] you're pumping twice as much money into the economy. you're obviously very much concerned about economic weakness over the next few months going into the midterm election.

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[38:46] the potential growth rate is not going to stay at three and a half. It's going to gravitate down toward two or two and a half.

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[12:17] we've had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that just isn't happening. Now, maybe one of these days something will finally do it.

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[1:21] I conclude that the economy is going to remain resilient through the end of the decade. I don't think we're going to have a recession and I think um earnings will continue to surprise to the upside and that'll continue to drive the market higher.

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[7:50] I do believe the next iteration is going to be a deflationary depression after how however long this this sojourn into chaos lasts and reflation and disinflation that that carnival ride whenever it ends I think it ends in disinflation then deflation and depression and I said D and I meant it it's depression not recession

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[6:05] if the US is running a 6 to 7% deficit, I just don't even know how a recession is possible. And I feel like bearish investors have really just gotten burned because there's so many bearish signs.

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[31:06] I think we're headed towards something I call the greater depression. It's been inevitable for years. I mean, you could see this coming since the I'd say since the 1960s. But, uh it it's going to result in a significantly lower standard of living for the average American and Canadian.

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[6:11] Economy should weaken by year end.

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[6:25] I think the economy in the second half of 2026 is going to surprise people for it with its weakness.

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[7:47] for years uh I've been predicting something I call the greater depression. I think we've already entered upon the greater depression, which I define as a period of time in which most people's standard of living drops significantly.

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[39:05] I think we've been in a inflationary, you know, depression kind of environment... stagflationary depression is locked in.

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[18:24] I think we're now on a sort of decline financially and economically, but we're going to hit a point where the decline then becomes a sudden drop. And I think we're going to find ourselves into something akin to a depression.

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[24:58] I think the economy is going to be far weaker in the second half of the year. The fiscal fund and games uh underpinning the consumer. uh the stepped up income tax refunds, that's in the review mirror. The stimulus from the World Cup, that's in the review mirror. You're going to find the second half of the year in the United States, there's going to be a spending vacuum.

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[5:34] understand that we we are going to see hyperinflation and hyper deflation or stagflation, whatever you want to call it, at the same time. Meaning your your cost of of living, your your the cost of the things we need will be rising rapidly. At the same time, the value or the prices of the things we already have, the assets that we have are going to be dropping at the same time.

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[5:17] it really looks like we have a stagflationary scenario building. We had the small business NFIB survey come out this week and showed small businesses are raising prices and dramatically reducing plans to hire people. So you know that that is a good leading indicator of rising unemployment and rising prices which is the definition of stagflation. So we have these stagflationary dynamics

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[19:01] no recession in the immediate outlook. All the data look okay. The money supply is being gooseed. Everything is being pumped up.

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[9:43] I still see growth uh maintaining at above 2% this year very close to the the baseline and and the Fed's baseline

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[46:05] I don't see this really getting um there's no path of this getting better uh for the American household other than those in the top 1% other than those in the top 10%

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[0:40] And now he's calling for a deep recession to hit in 2026.

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[25:18] I just don't see it happening until after. Now what I worry about to be honest with you Adam is once you get through this next year comes and we have all this uh strong asset appreciation this very strong uh uh pressure into the market to to expand and then the debt continues to grow. Uh it's hard then to avoid inflation getting uh further out of control which forces the hand of the Fed as it did when it got to 9% inflation in 2022 to raise rates and then you have this this very significant pullback with a larger bubble... That's what I worry about. 20 20 late 20 mid 27 into 28 I'm more uh concerned about in terms of the economy's vibrancy.

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[19:08] I think they're both going to happen. We're going to exhaust ourselves and we're going to have a terrible financial crisis, much worse than 2008. That much I can say with certainty.

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[27:35] But I this being said, we're so close to the midterms. I I will boldly predict that there's going to be another postponement of forcing people onto harsher repayment plans for their student loans.

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[0:00] you're in this very short-term period here where we're cycling through uh the tariff announcement from a year ago where it feels like we've got higher year-over-year economic growth, but we would expect that to turn back to a growth deceleration uh within a couple of months and you're back to this sort of stagflationary type environment for the next couple of quarters.

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[40:42] I think the the US continues to deteriorate and I and I I think it will continue to it's been deteriorating for some time and I think it will continue to deteriorate.

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[14:01] I believe that the economy is slowing down, especially in the US... I suspect that the same thing is occurring when it comes to the economic cycle. And the idea that we're no longer going to have an economic cycle. I'm going to call BS on that. I think... So recession and it's just and one of the things that I worry about right now is that we did have this spike in in uh energy prices. And if you look through the two previous um non-COVID economic cycles, right, because let's just put CO aside because we went and shut down the economy for a global pandemic. So, it really wasn't a traditional business cycle by any by any means. Um, but if we look at 2008 and we look at 2000 and I have a couple charts on this, you'll see that both times running up into that period, we had oil rising.

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[3:59] Certainly before we get foreign exchange controls, which I also think are on the way, that'll make it impossible for you to diversify even if you're able to.

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[5:41] I think tax rates will go up. And almost all the hands went up... I think the Roth is a good bet. But that you back to your question, what's the number one mistake people make that affects them long-term? Shortsightedness, not seeing the big picture, where you want to end up that may require you paying some taxes if you can get it now while rates are low.

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[2:03] I think we could be on the cusps of, an official recession

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[6:53] M&A is going to be a big big theme next year. People say it's heated up, but it has nowhere near run its course.

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[0:00] We are headed toward a weaker economy. That suggests that the stock market could actually suffer because of earnings weaknesses.

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[0:11] we're on the edge of a massive depression. The most basic reason for it is the debasement of the dollar.

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[0:15] We're going to go into a massive economic boom. We're at the beginning of a massive massive economic boom. It's going to be quite inflationary but it's going to be a massive economic boom and you really really really got to embrace that otherwise you'll miss out on it.

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[12:15] What I'll tell you is data back to 1948 that in an employment slowdown, when non-farm payrolls get to 0.6% year-over-year, you are in a recession 100% of the time. 11 for 11... you could build the assumption that a recession is probably already starting

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[17:58] And my expectation is you you are moving toward a recession in 2026.

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[20:13] So what that's telling us is that 2026 should be a good year for the economy.

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[7:43] I do believe there is a massive tailwind that deregulation plays into the bullish narrative. Okay, that's why I launched the free markets ETF, FMKT. I believe that deregulation is a big big driver, has all kinds of implications on sector rotation, new leadership. Um, and that should be ultimately positive for equities

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[0:03] For a major recession. Like, we're going to I think this what I think what's coming is going to be far worse than 089. When this happens, whether it's in a year or two or whenever once the Margo round stops and the music stops, this is going to be far worse, folks. This is going to be the worst thing since the drops in 2000 and probably even going back closing in on 1929.

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[6:12] construction is running at about 7% of GDP. We could see double of that amount.

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[4:28] I think the growth rate of the US economy will be much slower than it would have been otherwise

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[24:08] So I am I'm currently in the camp that views gradually decelerating US economic situation. Uh we don't have great seasonality uh coming up uh especially by September in the stock market. Uh so I do think that at least this two-month window is a time for you know potential caution until we have uh you know maybe a little bit more clarity on what tariffs are going to look like going forward.

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[34:51] I know if you think stagflation is the future and that's what I see. There will be deflationary forces. A market mean reversion is deflationary. A recession is deflationary. But the debasement trade necessary to fill the gap

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[0:15] What we're seeing is the onset of a slowdown that will eventually lead to a recession late in the year.

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[6:44] Frankly, I think Trump's gonna take it out on them because he's realized he's been embarrassed and he's gonna fire Scotty and maybe Howard by Christmas time?

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[3:55] I'd say yes and yes. I mean again I think the first quarter was flattered and the fact that it was import surging. I mean we're hearing these stats I'm sure you are too of ships that are you know leaving China 50 60% empty and that there's a very real possibility of almost co-like supply chain glitches and dislocations coming up.

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[9:27] I think at this point it favors a recession. Now things are obviously very fluid and we've got a president who's extremely mercurial and who knows what he's going to say tomorrow. I think the problem that he's got is he's created tremendous uncertainty. And when businesses and individuals are uncertain about the future, when they're uh when they're confused, what do they tend to do? They tend to sit on their hands. They don't spend as much.

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[10:08] we see the economy heading into a technical recession. Uh a technical recession is a just a mere collection of of negative quarters where you're having negative growth.

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[6:48] you're going to have a deep recession. You're going to have higher inflation. You're going to have lower growth. you're going to have further deterioration in the United States stature both domestically and on an international basis.

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[10:34] there's going to be a recession. I think Trump is gambling on a V-shaped recession. We're on the back end of it before the midterms.

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[13:55] recession is the most likely answer here later this year.

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