Gold Predictions

[4:03] Well, possibly before the end of the year, but sooner than later, meaning if it's it could very well be before the end of the year, but if it's mid-2027, it doesn't matter that much. It's coming soon. It's not a 5-year forecast in other words. I mean, gold always goes up. So, if you have a long enough timeline, you can get it right. But, this is something I expect in a relatively short period of time. So, yeah, possibly before the end of the year, but but early next year if not.

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[23:00] the strong move um of gold from 2,000 to over 5,000 tells me that investors are starting to begin to understand that gold needs to be revalued. Gold needs to be reintroduced into the system.

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[20:12] we do expect to see investors continuing to buy historically large amounts of gold not just for the next 2 years, but uh we we we take our projections about 10 years. We for the foreseeable future, we see investors and central banks adding to their gold reserves.

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[1:45] I think we're still very much in the first chapters of a gold bull market. And as we've said many times, those those bull markets have shakeouts and they have volatility. They have intervention. They have politics, geopolitics, and flatout price fixing. But the the secular direction north and up and to the right for gold and silver, uh, our opinion hasn't changed at all. I think we're still very much in the early stages of an epic run, a generational run.

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[35:20] All are screaming indicators that gold is going to play a much bigger role three two five 10 years from now. I don't know the day or the week that gold spikes to an all-time high. I don't have to know that. just know its direction is north

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[30:20] gold is objectively replacing the US Treasury as a global reserve collateral as a as a central bank asset and and as a better net trade settlement among countries that don't trust each other's currencies but do like to trust gold.

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[1:19] Our expectation was that the gold price would be in the 4,800 to 5,000 range by the end of this year. So our expectation has been that the gold price would be rising from from the end of August into the end of uh of 2026.

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[2:30] we think that there could be a pullback in early September

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[2:50] if you look at gold at 4,600, it's still nine You know, it's still basically 900, almost a thousand dollars down from the high. So, uh if you want to look at it that way, it's still 18 or 20% off the high in January. And I think if they'll think about it long the You have to think about gold long term. If you'll think about it over the next uh say 1 and 1/2 or 2 years, you know, and let's say you got an objective of gold of 7 or 8,000, then it doesn't doesn't feel very high.

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[5:01] personally, I'm bullish on these metals, doesn't mean you should be because what I'm saying, and I mean this very seriously, it depends on on your situation.

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[6:47] And that was all investors needed to hear to bid the gold price up from $4,000 to $4,800.

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[15:50] in my life, whenever I see a momentum-driven chart, uh and I'm beginning to see it in gold now, I get concerned uh for the very very near very near term.

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[5:34] I think that they're going to continue to go higher. I wouldn't jump to chase here. If I wasn't in, I'd wait. There'll be a pullback.

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[23:36] Gold I I would still remain long-term bullish on. If you do get a little pop up in the dollar in the short term, it might lead to risk assets like Bitcoin and gold and stock market to get a pullback. But for gold, you know, I think there would be a really strong case to be made for a higher low rather than a lower low

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[7:23] it's also telling you you're about to have a dramatic price advance in the monetary metals themselves, with the miners vastly outperforming, of course.

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[24:44] So, if gold you merely match the prior bull markets, it'd be 8,000 to 9,000. Merely matching those bull markets. With these conditions out there, it wouldn't have shocked me to see gold at 10,000 to 20,000.

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[8:27] the price direction of the next 3 to 5 to 10 years where gold is going to 15 20,000 easily.

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[37:45] It actually looks like we could see a price of a around you know 25,000 easily $30,000 per per ounce when we are at the bottom of this crisis

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[37:28] the gold is going to outperform over the next many uh not say decades but many years at least

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[5:06] gold is rallying up into resistance. It's had a very nice move this week, but it was based on news. And that is that always scares me when you have a strong bounce and everybody becomes very bullish and excited. We're seeing people pile into gold miners like like it's going out of style. Everybody's jumping into the leverage plays around here thinking things have turned around and maybe they have, but right now to me gold is is if it has put in a bottom, it still has more work to do.

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[27:44] I'm waiting to see what happens after tomorrow, after the 21st, if that 3-day typical kind of emotional stampede into an asset class runs out of steam and we start to see it roll over next week or if it's going to hold its ground and and push up.

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[0:00] I do believe that we are in the midst of what will be seen to be a very very very long wave in gold and silver that we will see new highs uh in both and ultimately I can see gold going to 30 40 $50,000 without a problem.

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[23:06] seeing gold go up another 10fold from here it to me is not uh not just um likely but inevitable.

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[26:32] when gold goes over 5500 will say ah yes but the fundamentals are better now than it was the last time.

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[40:25] When people say gold prices should be much higher, right? It it they absolutely should. Prices are suppressed. When people again tell me, oh, you know, are you concerned about the price going down? I'm not because I know the fundamentals and I know where we're going next.

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[21:55] Basically, then there's very little chance gold is going to retrace below 3,000 in today's environment is the underlying assumption that you should be making. Correct. You you you would have to assume that from what I just said.

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[8:58] So I'm expecting uh Canada all of a sudden start to stop selling their gold uh that they're manufactur that they're they're producing from gold... What happens when Colombia starts that? They say, "We're not going to we're going to we're buying your gold now and we sell it." The central bank in Colombia, what happens? They say, "We're going to buy it and bank it." ... and so we're going to see a couple of the countries that are in a sweet position like Canada to do that

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[34:52] Gold's only heading down and overvalued at 5,600 top... for gold just to go back to its last low, even closer in 2016, it would be down 60%.

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[7:17] there are a lot of people especially non-Americans who think that this is a moment to sell the crap out of the US dollar because they think that you know that this strategic defeat is inevitable and that this is going to be bullish gold and very bearish for the US dollar and then you know it's difficult to disagree with

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[31:17] which basically leaves I would say uh the the the the road open for a revisit of 5,000 before year end and then a potentially new record next year because I think the the the move towards gold the the the reason why investors have have been buying into gold for the last last few years has not gone away.

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[31:17] and then a potentially new record next year because I think the the the move towards gold the the the reason why investors have have been buying into gold for the last last few years has not gone away.

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[15:58] we think, you know, two or three years out, you're looking at 6 or 7,000.

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[26:13] I think that continues. I don't think I don't I think they look at the US like you know what there's a lot of things we don't like about this situation... So, I think that's why they're buying the gold. And to me, that they probably will continue to buy it.

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[20:34] near-term, yes. It could be a headwind for gold. That might be what's happening today. Longer term, no, I think that that leads us to a stagflationary path and ultimately not not ultimately, not someday, not 10 years from now, more like what happened after the COVID lockdowns. You know, the coming inflation turned out to be good for gold after all and I I think the setup here is actually quite constructive for gold.

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[16:18] I think that we are switching into the capital wastage phase of this particular buildup and so gold and bitcoin should start to perform as more and more money needs to be funneled into this this game to keep the players afloat.

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[2:26] what I'm looking at is if I look at the all-time record highs 5,500 5400 in that area I think that 5,000 of 5100 on the high side is what we could get out of this year

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[17:26] Major support 4200 short-term support 4357 with gold about to if it continues to move higher challenge $4,500 once again.

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[15:53] nothing has changed about this story in the last 6 to 7 months. We've been bullish gold and critical minerals for months at Phoenix Capital Research, and we thought this breakout was coming sooner, but it looks as though it's finally here.

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[13:34] And and it's also a headwind for precious metals which which incidentally look like go gold gold is has you know finished its consolidation and it's going up.

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[13:50] the secular bull market in gold that we talked about many times on the program and I happened to be on on board with the secular bull story in gold and I indicated I think the first time I ever did it in public you twisted my arm so hard that I had to confess that I I thought it would peak I peak out at $6,000 an ounce which I'm still holding to

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[21:10] I do think you are going to get a retrace here. We're probably going to come back towards 4,000, maybe even 39 3,900.

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[21:31] I do have it pens penciled out based on a calculator and and calculations that I've done is that by 2029 2031, we'll be at 13,000 on gold.

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[6:30] I think that that the gold trade silver trade are going to come back into vogue again and it will do just quite well if you're patient you have to be patient

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[0:46] there is a resistance level that we're supposed to be hitting right around now. it's around 4500 that you may see uh gold not punch through that and get rejected and then pull back a little bit.

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[5:36] I think from a chart perspective, we are going to have um a meandering down over the next few weeks um to where we were and people should be nibbling on all that stuff on the way down

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[11:37] I don't think people will be able to buy gold and silver 10 and 20 years from now.

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[35:25] That's also why I'm buying gold because I think real rates have temporarily peaked.

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[24:04] I still I feel very comfortable with my $10,000 announce call, which I made on your show and uh earlier, but uh that um we were not looking at peak gold or a meltdown. We were looking at these kinds of draw downs that do happen and now we've hit the bottom and we're going to uh going much higher from here.

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[19:04] it fell over 20%, a lot more than 20%. Um, and then the talk was, "Oh, okay. Is this the end of the gold bull market? Is this a bubble? Is it heading down?" A lot of people say, "Yeah, it's it's peaked. It's heading down, you know, etc." Um, but I did an analysis... I said the bottom will be uh at or above 3600. It could go as low as 3600. It actually went to 3,900 which is not exactly 36 but same order of magnitude. And I said, "From there, it's going to bottom, and it's going to go a lot higher very quickly." And that's what happened.

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[14:45] if you want to hear me say it's going to go to 6 half,000 by Christmas, I think that's extremely unlikely. I I I think it's more likely to curve over and then drop off again.

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[8:49] if you were to draw a line from the top peak in the middle and underneath at parallel, what you see there is a a falling wedge pattern, right? That's very bullish if it breaks out. As you can see right there, it has broken out of that wedge program or that falling wedge pattern. And that is very very bullish in terms of technical patterns. And you'll see the same thing with silver. I believe that they have indeed.

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[36:08] gold has nowhere to go but higher. So yeah, I think that there's smart money realizing this and and front running the the reality that that rates want to go higher

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[37:08] I think you can still buy it 4,300. I I think gold is is going to do well in the last half of the year

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[0:09] I'd certainly be buying gold silver on weakness. I think you need monetary inflation hedges and I'd be selective in terms of my exposure to Wall Street.

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[25:28] I think it's going to go up because they look as if they're printing money again. And this chart, which is, you know, I'm not going to win the Nobel Prize for economics or whatever, or any maths prize for this, but this is basically showing uh the relationship between uh the gold price, which is shown in uh in orange there in terms of a 6-week change, and a 6-week change in PBOC liquidity pushed forward by 9 weeks... It shows why the gold market should be picking up now. And reassuringly, it is.

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[3:33] You told uh BM Bloomberg that uh yeah S&P going to 10,000 gold is going to 9,000.

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[41:13] Gold's probably a double from here.

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[0:40:04] We might we might have we might not move hugely in the next month or two, but if you ask me, if you want to take a two-year, one year, two-year prognosis, you're looking at significantly higher numbers.

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[0:00:21] You want to buy the weakness. This may be the last look you get at the weakness. So, you better think about getting your buying boots on now rather than waiting for us to cross 5,500 again.

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[16:53] I like gold here. Um, some of the major miners like and Nikico Ego and Pneumont were some of the weakest like signals in in our whole database for a couple months earlier like the spring like after May in the summer and I think gold has some room to run here.

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[27:52] I think we're getting close to a near-term high in gold. We'll see a pullback and then I think we're going to see another thrust that takes us up to the higher targets.

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[27:04] this is a retracement rally with gold uh that this isn't the beginning of the move above 6,000. It's a retracement move within wave 4... there'll be a Cwave that takes gold below 3945.

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[32:48] I do believe actually gold could drift up to about 4500 and 4,500 to me is kind of this this overall range kind of like right in in this range which are previous highs, big consolidation, a big high volume spike low, another low. There's a lot of price action that pivoted through here. So, we could still see gold push up, which is going to suck more and more people into the precious metal space, but at that point is actually still a bare market trap

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[8:31] the first leg started last year um in August like right around this time and it went all the way until January. So we went to $5,600 gold and $120 silver and that was leg one and now we had a correction out of leg one and now we're going to get I firmly believe we will get a leg two and a leg three possibly a leg four.

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[9:55] 3750 is actually my target um for the correction. That would be a pretty steep correction here from 4,200. Um and so I actually think that that's in play here and I want to be wrong.

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[4:58] I'm using $7,000 gold, $200 silver, and and I I incrementally increase that as the price of gold, silver goes higher. And I do think we I think those are conservative targets.

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[12:44] The top of the mountain for me is going to be somewhere between $7,000 and $8,000 gold. But I think that's going to be early. I think this thing's probably going to 10,000.

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[25:55] So basically we're going to go to about 6,500 and then we're going to get a 15% correction back to about 5,500 and and you can get in again there.

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[27:27] most people have concluded that certainly by 2031, uh you could you're going to see gold at 13,000 to 15,000 dollars an ounce.

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[31:36] It absolutely cannot break below call it 4,200. It's really 4174 based on these series of tops. If it does, we we have to say that this breakout wasn't sustainable and we're still in a bearish high with absolutely 4 thou,000 the line in the sand. 4,200 the first line in the sand to maintain a bullish posture. Um at 4,000 we have to acknowledge any break below it that we're headed lower and we we're going to go into a multi-year not just state multimonth correction.

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[16:10] If this in fact was the conclusion of the correction, which I believe there's a really high probability of that playing out, then we're seeing a brutal correction of about 1,500.

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[12:28] I probably would be going long gold. Yeah. Which I probably when gold was going parabolic and I was saying get fudged as I like to say on X. Um I I was, you know, in the in the latter part of that momentum uh move. Uh I think a lot of that that collapse in gold um I think took the momentum traders out of gold. Gold now probably looks more like a riskoff asset. If you look notice gold, gold's having an interesting delayed reaction uh to what's going on with Japan and it's rallying. You know, it looks like it wants to rally again.

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[8:42] The second target I have been writing about this for the last few weeks again and again. The second target for that recovery for that bounce uh is the 200 day moving average at 4,490ish. So roughly speaking 4,500 has been my target for the summer and it's still active and it looks like we're marching there.

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[27:18] I don't see new all-time highs this year. Um, so I think this correction still needs more time.

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[13:43] the long-term trend is down. All the other moving averages are down. You know, we've seen a drop, a bounce, a drop. This is kind of a bearish formation. Maybe we see gold, as I mentioned, the dollar may just trade sideways for a while. The stock market rallies. We might see gold and silver and miners, you know, work themselves higher, but I still think it is a pause at that point, you know, before it potentially starts to sell off in a bigger way.

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[27:10] the price of gold based on any of those was anywhere between 8,000 and 25,000 right at by the end of this crisis and uh with the base case being in the in between 10 to 15,000

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[39:04] our projections based on our models is by 2030 you would have um gold surpassing dollar assets, right?

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[0:18] I'd expect gold to go up to at least set the 7,000 to 8,000 level um with a shot of even reaching up to uh 11,000 by 2032.

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[25:42] the metals have uh gone into this decline since January uh and most likely will continue at least into August if not the first part of 27.

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[38:27] our computer does show fine that the metals are going to go down. Uh, because a lot of people don't understand this yet. Um, but it it's looking like a pretty strong bull market from 27 all the way into 2032.

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[34:14] right now gold is at an interesting uh area. In March, I I indicated that gold uh the 200 day was at 4,100. I think we hit 4103 that day. um it reversed, had a substantial move up and not to new highs, but came back and we're sitting at that horizontal support level right around the 4,100 level. So, I'm watching that, you know, um with enthusiasm because I I think if the dollar were to weaken here, we're going to we're going to see some move in the precious metal... we may be building a bottom there from what I see.

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[25:40] I'm looking for gold to now break up to the upside and I'll start making a run uh to to new highs again... I'm looking for it to break out of 4,200 then to get to 4,500. I If I were to project and take a guess, which is all this is is a guess, I would say we're going to be somewhere north of 4,800 by the end of the year.

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[33:08] whenever there are accounting gimmicks or games or attempts to revalue a currency and do so in such a way that maintains a certain face value while diminishing the precious metal content... people start holding the old coins and then the new coins are basically trash... this is just a roundabout way of saying that the private sector individual participants in it are often wiser than the central bank and the politicians that are trying to pull the wool over their eyes.

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[18:53] I take a step back, and as a long-term investor with our clients, looking out 5 years from now, um again, let's think about this big picture, and there's no way the US or the rest of the G7 are going to balance their uh books. So, um and on top of that you see these countries and geopolitical tension servicing and the world order fracturing and I think that's just another bull case for for gold.

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[14:18] If it gets back to a normal long-term moving average, it's going to $3,000 an ounce. That's just the way it is. To get to 5,000 take something very profound would be very worrisome. So that's why look, it's hovering at 4,000.

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[11:36] I'm worried that you just get a little bit of volatility in the stock market and we're going to look back and say, 'Yeah, it was like 1980 and 2011. Those were the highs.' Yeah,

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[28:51] 4,100 is nothing. Like I said, it's got to get at least above 4,500 just to show potential. It's not a bear market.

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[45:53] he predicted the range for gold for this year to be between $4,000 an an and $6,000 an ounce and he backed it up with what appears to be reasonable data. So So, I I would highly advise people to go buy his book and read it because I think it's accurate... I think the range for this year will be $4,000-6,000.

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[25:14] back above 5,000. It could take actually maybe the rest of this year, maybe even into next year before we see that number again.

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[4:46] I don't, by the way, think gold's going to zoom right to 5600 again. It's going to take some time. It's going to take some digestion, but that's the first step in potentially seeing gold start to recover and move back to its all-time highs.

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[15:49] My the level where I will start accumulating more gold is at around 35 to 3700. So, we're almost there. We get one more little flush down.

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[10:03] it's telling me that 13,000 is going to be the next peak, but again, between 2029 and 2031.

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[15:51] My my view is that we we have to have the market come to realize that the Fed is not going to be hiking rates um and that we're not starting on a uh a hawkish monetary policy, a tighter monetary policy over the long term. The the earliest that I think that can become apparent to the market is probably September or October. given that much time left in the year, you know, my views are that we're probably going to be in the $4,400 to $4,600 range by the end of the year.

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[24:53] I think the gold price is still working off too big of a run. 5600 was too much.

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[3:12] I think this correction is almost over.

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[16:39] central bank um gold demand is around 1,000 tons uh in just one year. This this all started after the COVID crisis. And these are incredible numbers because 1,000 tons of gold that's a third of world gold mine production. And if if we if we revisit China's uh recent demands, I explained to you that their demand in June was 150 tons of gold. Well, that's 60% of world gold production... if you look at central bank total, central bank gold demand, this is this will be the fifth year uh this will probably be the fifth year where central bank um gold demand is around 1,000 tons

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[6:59] Dutch bank said that gold could easily go north of $10,000 and they said it could reach 145,000 in the process.

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[36:11] we could move back up to 40 50 60% of world's financial assets owned by central banks be being just uh physical gold but you need a gold revaluation and and we we need more um buying by central bank like we have seen in the last five years and I think this trend will continue

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[36:53] I think we're reaching almost peak gold now in production numbers.

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[1:55] I think they found now a nice little base. I look for a solid rally. The truth of the matter is is my original call was about 6,000. It may be a little tougher to get there. I could see us potentially getting back to the highs and listen I can't say we can't get to 6,000 but now my next target that I'd be looking for would be about 4600 then about 5,000 and then the highs and we could certainly go there if we get the action behind it

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[21:01] I think what's happened here is in many of the metals, not just gold, not just silver, but copper and base metals, the argument that we had 6 months ago when everybody was running to buy them has only gotten better. We're going to continue to have an ever-increasing shortages of key metals, including critical metals.

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[25:02] I think most of it is behind us, and I think that's the area where capital gains in metals, base metals, critical minerals, and otherwise are areas that to go to.

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[26:43] I think gold is going up cuz that's where the world is need to go to remonetize everything, and China is leading the way. And that's why they just continue to buy it.

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[20:33] I don't see anybody saying gold 2000 again. I I don't think that would happen.

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[21:20] now it's consolidated around 4,000. But the fact of the matter is that signal is out there. The fact that in a year something that's a monetary asset doubled.

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[22:55] you'll miss the next leg up.

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[27:00] who knows? Maybe maybe it bottoms at 3,000, but then from there I see it going to like 7500, probably even higher.

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[6:07] even if it takes three years to get to 10,000 US, I mean, how is that not still in a bull market, you know, when that goes two and a half times from where we are?

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[7:18] I still see gold I saw somebody the other day talk about um an argument for gold to be 8,000 by the end of this year in US spot. and it was very credible.

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[5:30] Give me 20 years I have no doubt we'll see much higher gold and silver prices.

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[30:06] gold is shrugging that off, right? Like I said, interest rates are making new highs here and gold stopped making new lows and so did silver and so did Bitcoin... the tape is starting to change here and I think that's important right at a time when you are telling me things like nobody wants to finance gold anymore.

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[22:07] I've been buying gold when it dips down to 4,000. And I think that's a pretty good hold. I mean, listen, there's there's always a chance it can go lower, right? I don't think it'll go lower than 35 or 3,600, and I'm willing to take that risk.

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[27:17] gold, I think, is finding its footing. Notice the last couple weeks it's starting to dig in. And I think the gold miners in particular are incredibly interesting because you know the lever plays in the gold price and when the gold price starts to go again which I think it will

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[1:33] I I I would be cautious on gold here a little bit, but longterm we still think it's 10,000. uh when we're in the teeth of this uh global slowdown, which we we we've forecasted that's coming, uh there'll be there'll be uh policy responses from the Fed and and and fiscal policy responses, but that that's out in the future and that will uh set up the the next leg of the goal move into 2030 for 10,000.

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[28:08] The bull market I I from my point of view is still intact and will will peak out probably around $6,000 an ounce.

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[37:11] Oh, yeah. It's going to take longer to hit the target. That's of 6,000, but we we we will hit it. The headwinds are uh as you say, you that chart that you had up there about the Fed funds rate, that that's a key thing because if if interest rates go up, the opportunity cost of holding gold, that goes up.

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[23:21] I think that those conditions and those buying behaviors from central banks will continue to help bring us probably to a condition that won't be flatlining for heading 20 years. It'll actually continue to be something we see where the price is appreciating over the next 5 years.

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[14:25] I think gold is in the process of making a bottom. And again, check back with me in 6 to 12 months. These are investments. They're not trades.

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[15:55] I think before it's all over, you know, gold is at 10,000 or whatever. So, I remain very the whole reflation complex generally, I'm still very positive on.

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[2:05] for gold, that's probably $35,000. It could be a little bit lower. So, gold $35,000 as a place where it starts to get interesting

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[3:02] I'm expecting to go sideways for quite a long time. And I I really don't know when it's going to rally again. Although it could be a couple of years. Yeah. Because if you look at these bubbles, there's normally a spike like an echo of of a boom a couple of years down the line. So, I believe that will probably come

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[3:20] what happens really long term, obviously, it's going to go up a long way because we're about to go into a seriously inflationary period and that gold, you know, I I I think you're brave if you're buying it now, but you're not brave if you're buying it at um 35,000 and you'll be, you know, you'll be good if you're buying it at 3,000.

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[2:26] I think that there's an opportunity now that we're going to build a fairly solid base here at 4,000. And as the world continues to to move as it is, you'll start to see things, you know, return back to to where we go with a gradual uptick in in the gold price going over time.

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[8:03] I think that the long-term trend is still up and to the right.

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[4:39] I think that the downside case for for gold is somewhat limited.

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[23:40] I still think based on the chart that there might be one final flush down to about the 3500 level, but basically anything below 4,000, I'm starting to look at it very attractively as a buy.

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[24:59] looking towards later this decade over the next couple years, I think gold is headed much much higher. And so, you know, this is where you can be a shorter term bearer, but really longer term mega bull on gold. the government spending, the lack of fiscal control, all of these things play into much much further upside over the next few years.

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[10:20] technically 4,000 seems to be a level where we're finding buyers. Multiple times over the past couple weeks, we've tried to crack this 4,000 level and and we're holding. So, I know it's just a round number. It's random. I'm picking it out of thin air, but it does seem to me that on a short-term basis, uh we're trying to find a bottom of of some sort here.

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[9:22] There's no way that silver and gold are going to make new highs. Maybe might take 10 years for that.

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[13:40] now that gold is back around 4,000, silver is back around 60, those were always kind of our targets. Not that it has to play out exactly how we would project, but this was the level we were waiting for. And now we're incrementally building those precious metals positions back into the portfolio.

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[15:21] That call has to change... Last month, you softened it saying the top might already be around 5,600. After this pullback, I mean, is is is 6,000 still a real year-end target, or is that call changed for you? That call has to change.

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[29:38] I would suspect we're in the accumulation phase... I think gold is is a is a I think it's a wonderful asset to own for the next five to 10 years.

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[2:48] I think there's a bit of a consolidation ongoing gold price and it'll be a period of time and then it will it will start to ramp up again back to those levels. But it will take some time. There's there's usually in the summer it does all um it takes some time to consolidate before in September later in the year it usually ramps up and I think that's what's going on.

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[4:03] by the back half of this year or into next year I do see another taking back off again the the gold price.

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[26:27] So I do think eventually this real rate move will end and then inflation will catch up to nominal rates. And I do think that this modest dollar rally is going to roll over again. So I think gold's a buy on this pullback.

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[22:41] We are about to be at a deficit for gold. Again, six-year running for silver for current demand. Not even talking about extra data centers or electrification, resupplying defense departments around. None of that just is current demand.

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[20:51] So if I'm investing just on the sheer logic of all of that, the numbers, the supply and demand, the the value and and where it's coming from, I'm not going to buy treasuries, I'm going to buy gold. That's just that that just makes sense.

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[28:56] it's going to try to challenge a new level on the upside with the major area being at around 4190. And the fact that's about 130 from current pricing, so short-term, I would look for gold to continue to track higher.

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[31:43] I don't see gold going below uh 3920. I think that this set of bottoms would be where we have really strong support

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[30:17] I did say a few weeks ago publicly that I thought that um that we were definitely coming to the end of the consolidation era where a lot of the many of the tourists had been washed out of the trade and gotten to the point where it was feasible that uh that this was time for fundamental players in the space to come to come tiptoeing back in.

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[33:27] I think gold's within the next couple years, gold is going to be 6,500 and uh that that's a great riskreward right here.

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[16:28] I personally I'm expecting gold to jump around within $500 of where it is right now for the next year.

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[5:19] And gold, I think, will maintain its purchasing power. Gold will today, as it has always done, buy you a very fine men's suit. Maybe not at a hotel this expensive, but at a reasonable place. It'll buy you a very fine men's suit, an ounce of gold. And 10 years from now, it'll buy you a very fine men's suit. That same men's suit in US dollars will probably be a $15,000 suit in 10 years.

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[6:00] The market share of gold and precious metals related securities in the United States relative to other savings and investment assets is 1/ half of 1%. Figuratively, this is a pimple on an elephant's behind. The four decade mean market share is 2%. If gold reverts to mean, gold and precious metals, related securities reverts to mean, demand increases four-fold in the largest savings and investment uh asset uh country in the world. And that's what I think is going to happen.

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[6:45] I think we may have bottomed. How's that for being certain? I think we may have bottomed in late June on the gold price and kind of recovering right now. But bottoming is a process and and that doesn't mean we're not going to necessarily go lower than we we got uh when we dip right below 4,000. But I think we might have gotten beyond that and we have from a seasonality standpoint a few more weeks of uh a weakness in the market, bottoming in the market before we go into the another uptrend in the fall.

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[8:33] I'm still a little bit bearish on price. We're we're getting near the bottom on silver and we have a maybe another 10% to go on gold somewhere thereabouts. That may or may not happen.

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[0:00] I I don't like to get into the numbers game, but you know, I I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people had put out these numbers, OH MY GOD, he's crazy. Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price go of these commodities go up by 7x on average

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[13:43] there's basically a 5:1 appreciation of gold relative to purchasing power, relative to inflation versus cash. And it's five times to two times versus if you invested in treasury bonds [...] it does continue to have that value [...] it definitely not just keeps up with debasement, it actually outpaces debasement.

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[4:35] My base case right now is actually a period of correction, consolidation, and the next big move will be higher. That is my expectation. Not my prediction. I don't know the future, but that's what I think is the most likely thing. But if that's true, correction and consolidation, you know, last time in 2020 when we first hit 2000, it lasted 3 years.

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[1:03] I actually think we might be in a little early this year. Um, I I tell my readers if nobody really calls a bottom in the market. If you do, you're lucky. You're not good. That That's the bottom line.

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[1:44] So far, it looks like that's holding. You know, we put a little breathing room between uh 4,000 and us. That seems to be a pretty good floor for the price right now.

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[2:12] it looks to me like it's going to be a typical market response where we're going to get into a stronger fall.

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[14:57] when they get back to work in Labor Day, after Labor Day here in the US or after the end end of the summer, they're going to look back and they're likely going to see the gold price up 5 or 10%, these mining stocks up 20 or 30%. And they've just missed those gains through sheer inattention.

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[10:43] you see gold heading as high as $6 to $8,000 by the end of this cycle.

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[11:35] We think that the number is a good number in terms of where gold should be based on our valuation models and we're looking at somewhere in the range of you know plus or minus 5% because of where we are going to tread with this uncertainty around rates for the next 6 to 12 months.

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[16:35] dependencies just on fiat currencies are going to decline over the next 5 years. And the majority, near 90% of them are going to continue to hold or increase their gold holdings over time.

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[1:05] gold actually sounds like an outstanding investment for the next 6 to 12 months in my view.

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[3:37] No, I think it's a breather in the bull market and one of the things that I think is different this time than let's say in the 2011 runup when we had gold moving that was largely driven by speculation... So yes we see these daily volatilities due to the news cycle but long term I think we continue to see that evolution of gold trending higher.

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[32:50] if you've got a 5 to 10 year time horizon, you've studied the gold market and you think everything I think and know means that gold will be higher and the commodities generally will be higher in 5 years.

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[8:49] I think we're in the sixth inning. I believe the gold bull market, at least for me, the gold bull market began in the year 2000. I think we've got 10 years left. So, we're in the sixth inning. Understand that in most financial markets, the best part of the move, the hyperbolic move, comes towards the end.

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[9:23] that the dollar will likely lose 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years, which suggests that the gold price in nominal terms, US dollar quoted terms, could be a triple over 10 years. It's not a bad move.

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[17:36] my suspicion, since you asked me, is that US interest rates will stay nominally strong and gold will be nominally weak, perhaps for the balance of 2026, but that doesn't matter. Structurally, the dollar's toast.

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[8:48] we might stay here for a little bit, but I do believe we're going to get to 6,000 by the end of the year.

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[19:52] I think a lot of the a lot of the move in gold, I think, had become overextended. I think the long-term positive outlook for gold is still there, I think. But the way to manage I think or the way we think about managing our exposure for clients is just making sure that you know we're not too far mispositioned at the wrong time because if you're full weight in gold into the high and you then have to ride it for you know a year or two years like we could be in a multi-year correction now for gold because we had a big run.

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[21:56] I can see a situation where four or five years from now they own, you know, basically just a little float of treasuries to maneuver in international markets and the rest is all other currencies, their currency or gold. And I think that's where we're going with some of these banks.

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[2:14] you look at price, you look at value, you look at sentiment, all of those things are just unbelievably lopsided right now, which as a contrarian uh it's difficult to imagine a better setup.

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[3:39] if you looked at gold backing just for the dollar, just for the dollar, we're not talking about the growth in global money supply, but just the growth in the money supply of the dollar for it to for us to have 100% backing, you would be looking at a $21,000 gold price. But you know for 25% back in you're looking at you know 56 5700. So where we are now we are very very under value.

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[3:41] Obviously, we still had a 5,500 in January. Our prediction at Prince sites was for 6,000 by the end of the year. Before that happened, we we still stand by that.

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[16:16] we are fundamentally positive on the outlook for gold given you know the debasement trade like the fiscal uh outlook across the western world is is is not not particularly rosy right and um you also still have an elevated level of geopolitical tensions they don't seem to be abating anytime soon so you know I think all of that is positive for gold as a you know diversifier risk in portfolios as a safe haven asset

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[17:04] I believe make no mistake that over 10 years the gold price the nominal gold price is going to be markedly higher than it is today.

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[21:12] it will reach a certain level of which I think is about three and a half thousand, but you know, it's not fate. Now's the time to think about DCAing again... The bottom of this, I believe, will be three and a half thousand, maybe a little lower, but who cares?

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[22:45] over the next 10 years, gold will go on a nice trend because the value of your dollar bills that you put in is going to go that way and the value of your gold in real terms will probably go sideways, but in numerical terms will be going that way.

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[27:20] If I looked at this chart and had no idea what it was, I'd say this is five perfect waves up and now the next low would be around 800 to 1,100 for gold right back at that 2015-16 bottom on your chart. ... that says gold's going to be down 60-70%.

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[3:25] it is still pointing to a little bit of a precipitous fall here. This is This is a high momentum move, and based on this chart, it is showing that we could see gold slip 38 3600. It might happen very quick... This chart is pointing to like in the next week or two, we could see gold slip right to 3600.

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[27:15] I think we're headed back to uh an ongoing of the trend that took gold from 1300 to 5,500. There's nothing that made that movement. Listen, maybe it got a little bit ahead of itself on the way up, but there's nothing to me that says this is a long-term retracement here.

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[1:20] I remain very very bullish on the precious metals and that's sort of uh where I've been bullish since uh 2018... I'm quite constructive on gold for the next 5 to 10 years and by default silver

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[33:35] the cycles are fairly bearish for the moment... I think that we're probably going to be soft into round about September this year, September 2026.

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[2:51] we could have a more prolonged pullback because of what we did but in the longer run we will base out and reassert we expect continuation rather than this being a top. Same goes for silver and platinum.

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[7:50] I think between now and October, the sell in May, I think when we last time saw you, we t we said sell in May, go away... overall this is not uh a great time to be leverage long too much.

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[13:23] my overall opinion is that people should sit on their hands now and get ready to get a bit of a discount window that might be offered in the next month. It could be two months, could be three.

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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.

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[3:48] our expectation is that the prices will start rising again in the final four months of this year into 2027 because the macroeconomic and political environment that drives investment demand hasn't gotten better. And our expectation is that while there is there has been some temporary improvement economically and politically, we think that by September things get worse again.

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[34:48] we think that the price, you know, the price has broken below 4,100 a couple times over the last few weeks. It's down below it today. We think that there's a lot of technical selling pressure with a target around 3,800 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the price spike down to that level.

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[3:22] right now, the chart of gold is looking like it wants to go to to about $3,600. That is going to be a sweet spot in terms of if it drops down to this level, to me, it's fair value or it's undervalued.

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[25:02] my guess is probably not at this point simply because to some degree things like gold are sensitive to rates uh and certainly real rates in particular if those are going to go stay higher, you know, where they are go up, um then gold typically would not benefit from that. you would only see gold uh maybe getting another tailwind if rates were going to go down if the economy really slows down substantially.

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[25:53] I think there's a great shot that we see 4500 on this next up leg, if not higher. Okay? But I will start to look at 4500 as a place to potentially lighten up my position

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[30:49] I'd say that the bull market in gold is still in motion. And this is just another fluctuation along the way. Listen, at the very beginning of the bull market uh in 1976, gold had reached $200 an ounce, up from $35. And then it collapsed down to a I remember well cuz cuz I took it This was the first I mean, it it really treated me well cuz I I took advantage of that collapse. It went down to $103.50. And then subsequently it rose to $800.

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[22:31] I don't think gold is, you know, going to make new highs and I think it will probably be sideways to down over the next year or so.

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[22:22] as we head into these more challenging times that gold is going to be preferred, continue to be preferred over Bitcoin.

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[0:43] well-known investor in the gold space, Pierre Lassonde, has said, "Just on the M2 money supply alone, we're talking about $17,000 plus dollars per ounce." And that's his prediction over the next 5 years.

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[28:28] Gold. Bullish two years.

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[17:44] We want to see gold break back into that 4,500 plus, you know, price area and and retest 5,000, hopefully within 6 months or so, right?

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[18:00] will we get back there this year? Not the way I see things right now. I think we'll see that probably in Q1 of next year.

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[4:30] I stand by the case that um gold and silver will bounce back further for all the same fundamental reason.

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[29:28] We think probably Well, I mean, maybe not unreasonably that gold is going to be elevated in the medium term because of all this debasement, either current or future. And therefore, let's take as a minimum $4,000 an ounce of gold.

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[3:30] In the very near term, I'm pessimistic as to the gold price.

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[28:20] I think it's making lower lows. So, I think you could see this continue to go down. Um I don't know where that number is going to be yet. I mean, I could see 3,800 potentially holding like 3811 is our next fib number.

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[4:19] it probably goes to 10k by 2030 or earlier but we just got to use this as a buying opportunity and accept

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[3:21] I still hold out and I still think it has likely further downside to go... your $3,500 call. you're obvious I'm assuming you're sticking to it... Now that we're below 4,000, we're now within $500 of my final target.

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[33:03] personally, I think that gold is in a correction phase as well as silver and that it may last for a while... we could have a correction in gold that lasts until, say, September, October.

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[29:04] I own it because I know in the end it's going to be much higher based upon a system that there is no way that the dollar can come back to a semblance of strength when we're 200 trillion in debt, when interest rates have nowhere to go but higher.

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[42:09] I think gold uh is going to be repriced much higher. I think commodity prices, emerging markets are going to be

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[31:06] if you don't have any gold I you should definitely be buying it you know and if you don't have enough gold you should be buying more. But, you know, I think the pullback that we've had that started around the time that the war started with Iran... it was a buy the rumor, sell the fact

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[42:19] once they're sort of flushed out the system then it'll trade sideways for a while and then it'll start the next leg up and somewhere in there is kind of the nice buying opportunity

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[9:43] Bank of America reiterated 6,000 gold by the end of this year. Goldman Sachs is at 5,400 by the end of this year. Uh, JP Morgan is at 5,50 at the end of this year. These institutions have not typically been friendly to gold over the years... I would agree with that.

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[17:02] both of these metals medium to long-term are going to be great trades. And that's that's basically my thesis.

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[3:25] So you're going to see a continuous bid from the central banks in the gold market for for years to come. Uh it's far from over yet.

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[24:13] Gold on the other hand could pick a number. Gold can go from 4,000 to some crazy number because it's a it's part of the monetary system. And and we know that the fiat experiment as we know it is falling apart.

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[27:30] gold obviously took a hit whenever you have a the market perceived that the Fed's going to be a little little bit more hawkish, you generally get a little bit, uh, of a sell-off in gold. The issue there is that gold had a really, really powerful 2-year run. Uh, so I do think that it has to like build a new base... some bears would say gold's going to round trip, you know, all of its gains from 2024, 2025. I wouldn't be in that camp. Um, but it it did rise really quickly. A lot of the asymmetry was taken out of the trade, and I think it has to kind of find a bottom and and build a new base.

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[28:57] silver and gold have had their time in the sun for now... but not new alltime highs here. This is this was gone. This was the that was that time they they had their time with the sun and now you're going to see that coming to the equities and then you're going to see it coming into crypto

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[1:48] clearly we're going higher and the only issue is when. And I I think the when is this year. Um, maybe in the, you know, now it's beginning to look more like it's a third quarter thing, but we'll see.

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[3:59] if you miss the first run, this isn't a bad in my opinion, this isn't a bad time to be getting in. you know, buying in in the low fours or buying silver in the 60s or 70s. Um, you know, that's that's a that's a decent buy because I think we've got another couple coming.

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[37:47] Listen, we're going to see it hit 10,000. You know, I My point is gold is going to become the currency once again of the realm.

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[39:37] Gold is effectively the reserve currency. That's clear. Uh we still call the dollar the reserve currency and it will at least in the popular imagination remain that for a while simply because there's so many dollars out there. So much is denominated in dollars and so much business still carries on in dollars, but ultimately it's gold will become the reserve currency.

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[16:29] gold typically when when there is a seasonal effect, gold typically bottoms between the middle of July and the middle of August. So, we're not that far away.

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[15:20] I think in my next edition I'm going to reuse the headline that I used earlier a few months back of a washout in the Middle East and and we're going to get beyond that.

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[5:21] I now think the bottom is in. And what caused the bottom for me to be in is not the common persons that are always saying goals going up or always going down from Main Street Wall Street. But the sentiment from just January and February when it was all rocket ships, we're going to 10,000 tomorrow. Silver's going to be 300. Flipped basically 180

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[10:43] I think it's going to go up, I think it's going to go to a new high. I think the talks up much higher and eventually someday being 10,000 or more legitimate.

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[21:47] that tells us that gold will probably have a number of more years to go and a good bit higher before it's all over with.

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[10:50] I think the market will kind of restabilize to it'll be just higher for longer and things will tape.

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[5:04] My sense is that I believe that around $4,000 will be a floor in gold and it's simply based upon the low that we saw last week. And if we carry that back, you can see that this was also an area of support. My assumption right now is it's going to be and later on I'll explain why I believe that to be in terms of fundamental events.

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[16:23] At the same time, we have gold overtaking US Treasuries, right, as the dominant global reserve asset.

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[9:43] I think gold will now go beyond its ra higher again. And it would not surprise me at all if gold got to back to 5,500, even an outside shot at 6,000 before the year's over.

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[5:27] I think anytime you can you get a chance to buy gold around $4,000, you know, an ounce, I think that's attractive because I think what it's telling you right now is that, you know, uh, you know, some very long-term goal holders have been forced to sell.

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[13:50] it's premature to say gold is topped out and is is going to stay down.

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[12:05] Oh, absolutely. I'd be backing the truck up for both gold and silver.

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[37:27] this is why things like Bitcoin, things like gold, uh, I think will rise over the next decade.

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[9:51] Even if the top ends up being right around 5600, granted it's not 6,000. If that's the case, I think it's going to be a hard climb back up.

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[6:53] I think the bottom is probably closer to $4,000 an ounce. We'll see. But my point is, it's not, as long as you can understand what's going on, it's not a reason to panic. It's not a reason to sell all your gold. I think it'll be foolish. Quite the opposite, if you don't have any gold or perhaps you want to increase your allocation, it's a great buying opportunity.

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[7:59] you're on the launch pad. You're now you are ready to go to the moon. You're ready for the six seven $8,000 numbers I've talked about on your way to 10,000.

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[33:52] I believe that we will over the next 10 years experience at least a reversion to mean.

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[27:37] we could have a deeper correction, but is this like a longer term fundamental end? I don't think so.

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[1:49] I think ultimately the bottom doesn't really come in the 3500. I think it's stuck in a range for years if history is a guide.

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[39:30] Still like gold and the gold miners and I think that we're opening up a very nice uh, um, reopening opportunity um, in gold. I like the hard asset theme.

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[32:06] we are in a correction right now in the metals. Once that is over I think you're going to see the next leg up which will bring new all-time highs and even and an even stronger bull market because this whole devaluation of fiat currencies is not over.

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[25:01] I still think gold is going lower and my price target still remains by year end early 2027 at 3500 give or take. So again, I still think there's another $600 downside in gold before it becomes a major buyable level.

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[17:34] I think over the long term, absolutely. Short term, clearly there's something funky going on in the funding market and with correlations and who knows with algorithms and momentum trading. So, but yes.

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[42:58] I think if we consolidate, I'm still bullish on gold and and and and commodities till the end of the decade, right?

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[3:28] I think you know if if you want to draw an analogy I think the best is um if we compare it you know to climbing a mountain climbing Mount Everest which is uh 8 almost 8,900 m high which is almost exactly our long-term price target.

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[4:43] I think the market usually wants to see like the round number. So, I think that we will test the $4,000. Um, but I think, you know, you really want to be aggressive buyer at those levels.

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[45:05] seasonality. Usually we see like a bottom mid June uh and then um kind of a kind of a bounce and then the lows usually um late July, mid August from a seasonal point of view. Um and this is basically what we already wrote in in in this year's report. Don't expect too much from gold.

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[19:45] in spite of recent price behavior in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, you know, I'm still massively bullish on all three of these things. And, and we're just in kind of one of those periods where they they got ahead of themselves last year.

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[38:44] I think the prime beneficiary will be gold because I know what the Fed's going to do, right? When the government bond market goes lower, higher yields, when certain private credit problems pop up here and there, one here, one there. All it takes is a headline or two. Uh, and then suddenly the Fed underneath the surface, while they won't be talking about it, will be doing something. Print, print, print.

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[21:50] I know when it's done, we're going to see $10,000 gold by 2030, which was I also made that call at the beginning of 2025. So, that call is intact.

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[15:45] you might see 4,300 before you see 6,300, but the day of reckoning is coming. And so and you're boxed in. If interest rates go up, your interest expense goes up. If interest rates go down up, well, your opportunity cost of owning gold goes down. And so it's all long gold. Just a question of when.

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[0:00:23] it's going to be platinum, silver, and gold. Those are your winners.

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[29:37] we continued to see gold at 6,000 by the end of the year. Um we put that as as a limit um as a level as a level for this year um when we looked at our our January um which we do every year our January sort of forecast for the commodities that we're most looking at. Um, and I I don't see that changing.

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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.

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[14:36] in the long run, as I said, gold's going up a lot, but I pay a lot of attention to what's happening to sentiment in the short run... I think I think it'll be a it'll look good in a few years.

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[33:19] gold is the stable play here. This is where whatever happens, you're going to be good and you're probably going to increase it. Because that's what history tells us. This is why the central banks are buying gold at these levels.

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[34:11] gold and silver for for the decade. And so it it has both offensive and defensive uh components

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[11:59] Will gold go up? Of course it will because what's going on is our currencies are going through the floor. And um you know you know just because it pauses it doesn't mean to say it stopped. It's going to continue at an accelerating rate

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[18:19] I think gold's telling us something. Um we live in a highly volatile world today. Um so, I mean, if you look back 5 years ago, I think we're sitting at roughly $1,600 gold. Um you know, here we are. It's just under 5,000. Let's call it 4,500 today. Uh but, you know, that's sort of roughly a 160% increase over the last 5 years. Gold is a flight to safety. Um we're in a world that's incredibly volatile. And so, I think that's what we're seeing.

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[46:25] I would be shocked if you saw a threehandle on on gold and it would last a matter of seconds as the arbitrage would just gobble it all up.

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[2:22] And then I think gold is going to break out of this consolidation because investors have been focusing on the nominal increase in yields as if somehow that is a negative for gold. It's not.

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[10:05] gold has not made a higher high yet, although it looks like it's probably going to make a higher low. It doesn't look like it's going to drop below that March low to me. So, I think it's going to make a higher low and the higher high will come during the next daily cycle

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[11:13] I think we're going to go I think we'll retest the all-time highs during this intermediate cycle. Probably make higher highs.

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[11:34] back in the wall of worry depending on how long we can keep it there. We may have two, three more years. We might even we might even make it into the next eight-year cycle low, which is going to be doing 3030 and then we get our final parabolic move in metals into the top in 32 33.

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[18:38] metals, despite the fact that they're frustrating right now, I think are probably a good play over the next 2 3 months because I I think they will get some momentum here in the not too distant future.

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[14:56] in the early phase of a recession, gold doesn't do well. It never does well simply because people have less money to spend. and governments have not started to spend, you know, the money yet to get the economy going. As soon as they start to, you know, print money, then gold does well again. But in the early phase of a recession, it doesn't... So, um I think that they will solve the issue. But in short term, the gold price can go down

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[21:09] This is what's leading to the boom in precious metals and and and crypto but also those are assets but also to the growth of hedge fund assets structured product options trading. All of these things have an AUM tripled or quadrupled in four years in AUM and are still a tiny fraction of the broader investment universe.

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[7:54] I think we've seen the pullback in gold. I think we're seeing gold in consolidation. And I think the gold has already anticipated the higher rates. It's already anticipated what was going on. And I think now you're starting to see some new money buyers come in and holding it in consolidation, waiting for the next big move. And I happen to believe the next big move in gold will be higher. I could see new highs this year. In fact, you know, I believe that we're going to get to 6,000 this year in gold.

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[21:33] it's easy to project gold around whatever it is four five today being in double doubled digit numbers in 5 years time.

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[29:58] I think at the moment it's had it had its moment and and it will that moment is not likely to come again for quite some time... quite some time probably 2 years around the same time you think the stock market's going to crash.

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[31:10] So there will be an aftershock in gold and there will be an aftershock in silver.

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[21:54] That doesn't mean we don't like it long term. I think if you if you really want to own it for the next two or three years, you'll make plenty of money.

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[34:25] I think you need to continue to have gold and silver. Uh I think you need to look at copper... when you think about a pullback in gold prices, think is there a change in the monetary landscape? No. Is there a change in the fiscal landscape? No. Is there a change in the behavior of central banks? Are central banks going to purchase more US uh or euro or Japanese or UK debt or are they going to continue to purchase more gold? Therefore, there is an opportunity in a pullback.

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[39:01] historically and the seasonality is that we see a kind of a dull summer for the metals and I think that's going to be the case again. I wrote not in the report I sent you but previous one I expected to see a broad trading range for both gold and silver probably through the summer. I still believe that

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[15:03] I know this is just setting a base from which it's gonna have to move up that much higher and I think um this is also true of oil

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[0:45] my guest today says the consensus is wrong. He argues we're entering the final parabolic meltup of a 44year bull market, a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.

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[12:30] gold probably less so maybe 30 or 40% but it could go 50

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[14:23] let's say we get 7,000, you get a 50% correction, takes you back down to, you know, 3500. From there, um, you could see 20,000 in gold by the early 2030s.

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[2:55] I'm I'm bullish on gold in the short term and the long term.

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[19:08] god forbid the price of gold goes up which I for expect it will these stocks could double triple without any problem at all... I think I think gold and gold miners go higher.

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[25:24] do you think gold, it sounds like you think gold has peaked? Yeah. And if it does, are we in in more of a fluid situation where we'll see it move up and down or is this sort of peaked and we're going to face another one of these decades long period where we're sideways? Exactly. You you nailed it. The ladder is exactly way to do it. So, typically the way it works in gold and silver, we should expect years of bad performance after a period like this of way of outperformance.

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[22:58] I think you have to get enough selling now to get rid of those momentum people. And that's probably going to mean another 500, maybe as much as $500 down from here. You know, 4,000 or lower.

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[11:00] gold will already be out of this congestion zone and silver will be well out of this congestion zone into the next massive multiple which we think is coming and largely might be seen fully or largely by the end of this summer. It's a very rapid event.

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[16:33] don't be surprised if we either retest the March low or retest the 200 day moving average because there's just that heaviness in the trading where you haven't, you know, the the the buyers haven't been able to to get the price back over to the 50-day to, you know, get it into that short-term uptrend, which just suggests that you're in that digestion period after a really powerful parabolic move

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[38:28] my interest in gold is the continued debasement of the dollar and all currencies for that matter and that's going to continue and so gold's going to continue to appreciate over time.

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[7:02] And then also keep some of the commodities in the precious metals cycle because I think that again we're going to continue to see upward pressure on a number of key commodities and also on gold just because of the monetary instability.

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[18:04] is gold going to 6,000, 8,000, 10,000. I think it is eventually... I think gold and the miners and silver and the miners are going much higher.

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[23:54] gold has now made a fool out of the dollar and it's it's going to make more of a fool of the dollar... We certainly didn't reach peak gold in 2025. We're in the very first innings because the fundamentals just haven't changed.

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[33:05] you can look out and say look do I think oil and a is going to be higher in price in a year's time in 6 months time yes but somewhere between here and there is the mother of all demand destructions coming a spike demand destruction collapse and then sort of the structural underpinning higher so it is a you know I I for me I think it depends on your time horizon you it looks to me like we are in a new sort of secular commodity bull market.

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[0:19] I think the secular bull market is still in place and gold secular bull will probably peak out at $6,000 to $7,000 an ounce.

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[15:45] Modi is on his knees. He's asking his resident. But what do you think they're going to, you know, think when your president tells you not to buy something? They're going to say, well, you know, he's going to depreciate our currency even more and it's going to have the complete total opposite effect. Okay? The demand for gold is going to go up.

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[14:37] I truly believe that we will see gold at some point before the end of the year challenge $6,000 per ounce.

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[18:47] I think that we probably won't ever get back to those levels that we had prior to where we are today. But I think that you'll see gold flatline. You'll see the flows in the west be a little bit slower than maybe they have been in terms of the investor flows.

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[24:25] I think you're still due for some volatility on the short term, but structurally, again, structurally, I think that there's a market for gold to continue to be on the upward trajectory.

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[12:08] I've been pounding the table for real assets for the last five, you know, 10 years really with the with the gold price. Um and that's just an argument that you know in an inflationary environment when the debt uh is doing what it's doing and the central bank has been ultra dovish for so long um you really want to own real assets in favor of financial assets.

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[37:06] one of the best periods to own energy stocks and precious metals and things was that 2000 to 2010 time frame, which was a lost decade in the stock market. So, you know, these things go in cycles and uh you know, it's it's really hard to kind of maintain a long-term perspective sometimes when you see what the market's doing in the short term.

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[36:38] gold get up you get you get above 4,800 again and I'd say you know wipe your brow if you've been panicked

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[6:22] the increase in US interest rates and the so-called flight to quality around the world is driving the US dollar higher and likely driving gold either sideways to down.

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For retail investors, Frisby outlines his $10,000 gold target by 2030

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I still think we're a good five or 10 years from that, if not more. It's it's it's stating at 2,00 you know, 2,300 and something tons the lowest amount it can state and be credible.

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[32:45] If you don't have gold before that moment in time, you'll probably be able to get some if the purchasing of gold hasn't been banned and governments aren't hoarding all the gold for themselves, but you're going to pay a significantly higher price for it and have to jump through a lot more hoops, I suspect.

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[8:16] And to me, it's not if it will go to 7,000 is when. Might be a couple of years, might be five years. I don't think we'll see it this year.

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[11:40] So we're at 4,600. So if you buy now, be prepared to buy even lower. I think 4,300 is my target. I think I think we're going over the next two months.

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[12:07] I think this one's going to go at least one more month. At least one more month and possibly six months. So, we're looking at a five month to six month correction. So, we won't get an all-time high. We won't get that $1,000 back for at least a month. Um, maybe two or three months.

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[27:27] And I think 2028 it'll go through 2028. But I'm not I'm not uber bullish gold in 2029. And so I want to get out. I actually want to be completely out in early 28 because I think the cycle is gonna we're starting to get towards the end.

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[25:38] So I I I so when you know gold goes to 5600 my goodness it went straight up

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[11:55] it's going to result in a tremendous amount of demand. Um you know uh tether dollar is a simply a conduit. you know, you start you convert into TAD to bring into crypto and then you're gonzo into, you know, other alternative better products and, you know, what's a better store of value than, you know, tokenized gold.

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[15:40] now and gold is only a year into a 10-year run.

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[0:09] Gold and silver trade sideways for a year or two or three.

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[30:06] By the by the end of the year, it's going to be higher than it is right now. it it it might not hit hit the six to $7,000 range because yeah that that would that would require the kind of fantastic increase we had in the past which I don't know if we'll see again but yeah we're going bank we're going up

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[18:22] we're still talking 46 $4,700 gold and 7075 silver.

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[22:27] There will be shortterm uh declines there. Short-term meaning, you know, not 10 a 10 year decline, but uh uh in in gold and silver as people run for the exits everywhere. Okay? And uh so they sell what they can and uh if you can't sell individual stocks that you want to get rid of then you have to sell stuff that you can sell where there is a bidder and that would would also be the precious metals. So the precious metals will have a decline but always bottoms out much earlier than the general stock market. And as soon as the big investors uh decide they want to get in again, they will buy it. And then you see gold and silver, they're going to fly sky high.

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[4:42] gold from a bullish standpoint has is forming what could be a very big bull flag pattern. And this points to dramatically higher pricing going forward. This depending on where we draw from, it's pointing to 8,000 plus for gold.

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[5:38] So it's saying that we could see gold come back down to about 4,000 or 4100. That's a 61% extension to the downside and it could go all the way down to about 35 3600.

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[14:25] Get it done within the next five or six weeks.

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[17:37] Gold up or down by the end of the year? >> Yeah, probably down.

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[25:54] I think gold is likely to trade between 3,000 and 6,000 for a decade.

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[0:00] I would not be the least bit surprised if we get to new all-time highs in gold and new all-time highs in silver and other commodities too because this is a commodity phenomenon. Gold and silver are just first in line and uh I expect all commodity prices to trend higher for new all-time records this year.

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[6:51] the word that they're sort of sharing um with the investment world is that that $6,000 goal is attainable.

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[23:05] So here we are today, you know, gold 4500 or or wherever it is. You're kind of at the low end of what happens in sort of historical gold inflationary periods... We actually think the equities are not discounting spot. We think spot prices can hold.

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[9:31] But I truly believe that we will conclude I would say over the next four months above 5600. It could be 6 months. It could be shorter.

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[1:31] I do think that gold is going to go through 6,000 once the dust settles on what's happening in Iran.

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[3:02] The key though when we look at gold and I'll try to pick another chart okay where we look at gold it has moved from the end of October 2025 from 4,000 to 5600 $1600 move when it retraced the bottom of that retracement is where I mark my 100 or zero point on the fib level but the the secondary high that we had was a lower high and then we had a lower low. Typically in a market where you get a lower high and lower low is significant in that it could be really anticipating what we call um a level of support or resistance that's just been broken. And the one thing that I tend to do to confirm or deny that basic assumption is put up my moving averages. I'm going to do that right now. I've also added the MACD. And so what we can see is that when we look first of all at our stochastics, you can see how it dipped and is now below or went below 20. For those unfamiliar with this technique, all a stochastic oscillator is, and we use oscillators and momentum. The oscillator is basically plotting a line comparing the highest high over a certain period to the current high. And so when the stochastics come down like this, it becomes extremely overbought. This is what we saw back in March. You can see where it got very topheavy back in January and it broke above the 80 and here below the 60. So, we've seen a real significant move up on the stochastic. We have also seen that on the MACD, which is simply moving average convergence, divergence. We are not quite overbought yet, but we're getting in that territory. When you look at commodities versus stocks, a stock that has been trending higher uh for a year, even with dips along the way, will consistently be overbought because the price target keeps moving up. That level keeps moving up. We're seeing that in gold, whereas we're not rangebound on a longer term basis by any means. We hit an all-time record high. We did get a lower high, then we did get a lower low. What we really need to see and I believe there's a good chance of it on a technical basis is this current rally which began after that extreme low of 4100 breaks through 49 4900 because if we do that there's really no resistance till about 5100

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[10:52] I think 7 $8,000 is kind of where we're going.

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[16:50] I think we're going back down to at least 4,300, maybe even lower.

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[10:45] gold is a very very big winner and anyone that has gold on on an individual level I think over the longer term is going to do exceptionally well.

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[35:12] if you look at money supply and things like that, I've, you know, gone and looked at some of the numbers and you you come up with something like 18,000.

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[13:31] I think gold might come back to life and push up to 5,000 or a little bit deeper uh 5100 or so.

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[19:36] Well longterm is the easy one. I think we're going higher. That's that's a simple one there. As I mentioned before, I I I don't think any of the reasons why we rally to $5,600 in gold or $120 in silver has disappeared. Nothing has changed fundamentally. So, the fundamentals are still in place.

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[23:37] I think the trend is still higher for gold.

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[30:44] I anytime you see gold on a year-over-year basis that is two to three times standard deviation of the average performance, it underperforms for the two next two years.

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[14:14] Well, it looks like precious metals have found their floor, doesn't it? And that's something that we discussed as being um maybe in its infancy after this big sell-off. Uh but it certainly looks like people are finding a hiding place whether they're concerned about a a credit event which is increasingly the odds are are increasing that that's going to happen because again we're still in a higher for longer regime.

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[30:12] I'm currently in long gold futures and I want to be getting long miners as well.

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[53:59] Gold and silver: why he expects a major decline from here

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[6:12] So if I'm buying gold equities today, I have a firm belief that 5 to 10 years from now, the gold price is going to be materially higher than it is today.

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[34:34] my underlying thesis, and we've shared this on your show numerous times, is that over the next nine or 10 years, the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power, while gold likely maintains its purchasing power.

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[17:10] So uh in the long term uh the gold is going a lot higher. gold is going above 10,000 an ounce. Um and and probably a lot higher than that.

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[2:10] the thing is uh our administration has a reputation for flip-flopping. So I'm not sure you know to what degree can you take these announcements... what this really does is in the long term it's very fundamentally bullish for uh gold.

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[21:53] Yes. And they're done. So, so gold is like uh one of those tests you can take that does a body scan that tells you if you're going to be sick or something. Gold runs before the crisis. If you notice, it went to a thousand March of 2008 before there was a problem six months later. It went up before the CO stuff, you know, came out like the flu panic. So, there's all these instances where gold runs and nobody can figure out why. Well, gold ran to 5600 and everybody was like, 'This is amazing.' you know this is going to be but you know it was 30 like 37 trillion was the value of gold at that point which is like more than half the value of the entire US stock market. I mean it's sort of like it got like a little bit disproportionately ahead of itself and then we have a global conflict and now the price is settling back down. I mean 4600 that's a pretty good price David for gold you know that's like that's like 334 trillion dollars worth of gold.

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[19:42] My guess is that gold probably will start to do uh do well over the coming uh months and probably years.

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[5:09] I'm still in the camp that I was a year ago that it's going to end up much higher than even it got in January.

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[19:26] I think that gold is going to go down again uh in coming weeks

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[28:36] I think there's a chance that it'll dip below 4100

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[14:29] I do think gold probably settles out at uh 7500 to 10,000 and very well could go above that

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[0:11] Gold is now trading more than it should be by historical levels. But that doesn't mean it couldn't go to $10,000 an ounce or more because who wants to hold the dollar?

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[29:56] We think gold probably goes down and touches its 200 day moving average. Probably the same with silver, but that might actually present an opportunity to buy some, um, add some.

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[7:01] And at some point, well, the what comes next is called a a crackup boom in the Austrian School of Economics. That's when a critical mass of people realizes that it's the government's policy to inflate away the currency. So, they just dump the currency. When they get paid, they convert that money into real stuff and then the currency falls off the table, which is the same thing as saying the price of the real stuff goes through the roof. And you know, look at gold and silver. We're kind of there right now.

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[19:04] So, I would just tell anybody out there, if you've got money, sure you want to put it into oil, that's going to pay off for you, oil and gas, but don't walk away from precious metals because in the long run, they are going to go through the roof.

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[27:13] We're very bullish on gold and silver. It's just beginning again. The death of the dollar is before our eyes.

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[5:46] I think we're going to see it go higher by the end of this year.

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[21:44] we're going to see most likely a big move towards in my view um you know comp countries starting to use gold uh as a currency either through a gold standard uh fix uh you know a fixed state of their currency with gold um backing gold in in a certain way with with their fiat currencies.

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[1:32] And based on longerterm charting, it's still telling me that gold is going to eventually break this 44 to 4,300 level and trade down to 3900, which you can see is a pivot low here. Eventually, I'm still looking at a retest of this major former level here going back to basically every hit from April of 2025 all the way to August of 2025 before we broke out. We should go back and test that level.

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[21:09] I think gold will continue to be a strong performer.

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[24:37] Now, they're signaling to us over the next 5 years a decline in the dependency on fiat currencies, the dollar and the euro in particular.

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[32:39] the gold price can fall to $4,000 or it could fall to $3,800. It can actually fall even further and still be in a long upward trend. We think that the gold price probably will trade stay above 3 $3,800 4,000 in the near term and that the price will probably consolidate with a slight upward bias over the next year uh and move slightly and move somewhat higher in starting in the last four months of this year and going into 2027 and possibly going into 2028.

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[25:57] I think gold now is on the way back to probably the 50-day moving average, maybe slightly above 5,000

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[24:28] I wouldn't be surprised if gold actually would want to come back down here maybe below yeah maybe below $4,000 at some point. maybe testing this whole uh uh support that the the top from last year April 3,500

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[38:48] I think um a lot of people all over the world are going to realize gold is just a much better um money than the dollar and you'd rather not be financing the US government as it does all of these crazy insane criminal uh things around the world. So I think we'll see more demand for X aut

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[12:17] gold is not going to go up after just streaking from from 2,000 to 5,000 in the last 3 years. It's part of the bubble

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[19:20] I used to have my target for a 50% crash in gold now to get back to normal levels it's going to have to crash 70 to 80 okay

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[17:04] gold once we crash here and come down to reality that means gold goes down to maybe a,000 $2,000 instead of 5600 here recently

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[4:39] I would expect gold to trade back to let's say potentially 46 to 4700.

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[6:46] I think we're still on pace for $10,000 gold. It just may be a couple years away.

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[20:43] My guess is we'll see somewhere in that $3,500 range, but it will be very short-lived. And so, you know, the idea is is that the wash out of the weak hands... My guess is 3500ish give or take. It won't last very long and we will be back towards 5,000 within 3 to 6 months.

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[6:52] I think gold could go on another, you know, maybe 30 40% run, which is why I've still got my miners because that will probably go up 50 or 60%.

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[0:15] I'm not a fan of gold. I think initially goes to 4,000. That I haven't said that in decades. I fully expect silver to go back to near 50 and gold initially to buy to drop down to 4,000.

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[36:58] I don't think gold's going to stay under 5,000 for long.

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