Gold Predictions

[0:00] I I don't like to get into the numbers game, but you know, I I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people had put out these numbers, OH MY GOD, he's crazy. Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price go of these commodities go up by 7x on average

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[13:43] there's basically a 5:1 appreciation of gold relative to purchasing power, relative to inflation versus cash. And it's five times to two times versus if you invested in treasury bonds [...] it does continue to have that value [...] it definitely not just keeps up with debasement, it actually outpaces debasement.

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[1:05] gold actually sounds like an outstanding investment for the next 6 to 12 months in my view.

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[3:37] No, I think it's a breather in the bull market and one of the things that I think is different this time than let's say in the 2011 runup when we had gold moving that was largely driven by speculation... So yes we see these daily volatilities due to the news cycle but long term I think we continue to see that evolution of gold trending higher.

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[8:48] we might stay here for a little bit, but I do believe we're going to get to 6,000 by the end of the year.

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[19:52] I think a lot of the a lot of the move in gold, I think, had become overextended. I think the long-term positive outlook for gold is still there, I think. But the way to manage I think or the way we think about managing our exposure for clients is just making sure that you know we're not too far mispositioned at the wrong time because if you're full weight in gold into the high and you then have to ride it for you know a year or two years like we could be in a multi-year correction now for gold because we had a big run.

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[21:56] I can see a situation where four or five years from now they own, you know, basically just a little float of treasuries to maneuver in international markets and the rest is all other currencies, their currency or gold. And I think that's where we're going with some of these banks.

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[2:14] you look at price, you look at value, you look at sentiment, all of those things are just unbelievably lopsided right now, which as a contrarian uh it's difficult to imagine a better setup.

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[3:39] if you looked at gold backing just for the dollar, just for the dollar, we're not talking about the growth in global money supply, but just the growth in the money supply of the dollar for it to for us to have 100% backing, you would be looking at a $21,000 gold price. But you know for 25% back in you're looking at you know 56 5700. So where we are now we are very very under value.

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[3:41] Obviously, we still had a 5,500 in January. Our prediction at Prince sites was for 6,000 by the end of the year. Before that happened, we we still stand by that.

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[16:16] we are fundamentally positive on the outlook for gold given you know the debasement trade like the fiscal uh outlook across the western world is is is not not particularly rosy right and um you also still have an elevated level of geopolitical tensions they don't seem to be abating anytime soon so you know I think all of that is positive for gold as a you know diversifier risk in portfolios as a safe haven asset

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[17:04] I believe make no mistake that over 10 years the gold price the nominal gold price is going to be markedly higher than it is today.

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[21:12] it will reach a certain level of which I think is about three and a half thousand, but you know, it's not fate. Now's the time to think about DCAing again... The bottom of this, I believe, will be three and a half thousand, maybe a little lower, but who cares?

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[22:45] over the next 10 years, gold will go on a nice trend because the value of your dollar bills that you put in is going to go that way and the value of your gold in real terms will probably go sideways, but in numerical terms will be going that way.

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[27:20] If I looked at this chart and had no idea what it was, I'd say this is five perfect waves up and now the next low would be around 800 to 1,100 for gold right back at that 2015-16 bottom on your chart. ... that says gold's going to be down 60-70%.

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[3:25] it is still pointing to a little bit of a precipitous fall here. This is This is a high momentum move, and based on this chart, it is showing that we could see gold slip 38 3600. It might happen very quick... This chart is pointing to like in the next week or two, we could see gold slip right to 3600.

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[27:15] I think we're headed back to uh an ongoing of the trend that took gold from 1300 to 5,500. There's nothing that made that movement. Listen, maybe it got a little bit ahead of itself on the way up, but there's nothing to me that says this is a long-term retracement here.

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[1:20] I remain very very bullish on the precious metals and that's sort of uh where I've been bullish since uh 2018... I'm quite constructive on gold for the next 5 to 10 years and by default silver

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[33:35] the cycles are fairly bearish for the moment... I think that we're probably going to be soft into round about September this year, September 2026.

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[2:51] we could have a more prolonged pullback because of what we did but in the longer run we will base out and reassert we expect continuation rather than this being a top. Same goes for silver and platinum.

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[7:50] I think between now and October, the sell in May, I think when we last time saw you, we t we said sell in May, go away... overall this is not uh a great time to be leverage long too much.

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[13:23] my overall opinion is that people should sit on their hands now and get ready to get a bit of a discount window that might be offered in the next month. It could be two months, could be three.

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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.

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[3:48] our expectation is that the prices will start rising again in the final four months of this year into 2027 because the macroeconomic and political environment that drives investment demand hasn't gotten better. And our expectation is that while there is there has been some temporary improvement economically and politically, we think that by September things get worse again.

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[34:48] we think that the price, you know, the price has broken below 4,100 a couple times over the last few weeks. It's down below it today. We think that there's a lot of technical selling pressure with a target around 3,800 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the price spike down to that level.

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[3:22] right now, the chart of gold is looking like it wants to go to to about $3,600. That is going to be a sweet spot in terms of if it drops down to this level, to me, it's fair value or it's undervalued.

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[25:02] my guess is probably not at this point simply because to some degree things like gold are sensitive to rates uh and certainly real rates in particular if those are going to go stay higher, you know, where they are go up, um then gold typically would not benefit from that. you would only see gold uh maybe getting another tailwind if rates were going to go down if the economy really slows down substantially.

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[32:32] Gold 3 and 1/2 thousand. It will go in and it will find its level, I believe, around there. It might go a little bit lower. It might shake about a lot. But, when all is said and done, that's where it will be and that I'll be DCA'ing in then.

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[25:53] I think there's a great shot that we see 4500 on this next up leg, if not higher. Okay? But I will start to look at 4500 as a place to potentially lighten up my position

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[30:49] I'd say that the bull market in gold is still in motion. And this is just another fluctuation along the way. Listen, at the very beginning of the bull market uh in 1976, gold had reached $200 an ounce, up from $35. And then it collapsed down to a I remember well cuz cuz I took it This was the first I mean, it it really treated me well cuz I I took advantage of that collapse. It went down to $103.50. And then subsequently it rose to $800.

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[22:31] I don't think gold is, you know, going to make new highs and I think it will probably be sideways to down over the next year or so.

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[22:22] as we head into these more challenging times that gold is going to be preferred, continue to be preferred over Bitcoin.

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[0:43] well-known investor in the gold space, Pierre Lassonde, has said, "Just on the M2 money supply alone, we're talking about $17,000 plus dollars per ounce." And that's his prediction over the next 5 years.

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[28:28] Gold. Bullish two years.

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[17:44] We want to see gold break back into that 4,500 plus, you know, price area and and retest 5,000, hopefully within 6 months or so, right?

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[18:00] will we get back there this year? Not the way I see things right now. I think we'll see that probably in Q1 of next year.

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[4:30] I stand by the case that um gold and silver will bounce back further for all the same fundamental reason.

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[29:28] We think probably Well, I mean, maybe not unreasonably that gold is going to be elevated in the medium term because of all this debasement, either current or future. And therefore, let's take as a minimum $4,000 an ounce of gold.

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[3:30] In the very near term, I'm pessimistic as to the gold price.

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[28:20] I think it's making lower lows. So, I think you could see this continue to go down. Um I don't know where that number is going to be yet. I mean, I could see 3,800 potentially holding like 3811 is our next fib number.

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[4:19] it probably goes to 10k by 2030 or earlier but we just got to use this as a buying opportunity and accept

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[3:21] I still hold out and I still think it has likely further downside to go... your $3,500 call. you're obvious I'm assuming you're sticking to it... Now that we're below 4,000, we're now within $500 of my final target.

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[33:03] personally, I think that gold is in a correction phase as well as silver and that it may last for a while... we could have a correction in gold that lasts until, say, September, October.

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[29:04] I own it because I know in the end it's going to be much higher based upon a system that there is no way that the dollar can come back to a semblance of strength when we're 200 trillion in debt, when interest rates have nowhere to go but higher.

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[42:09] I think gold uh is going to be repriced much higher. I think commodity prices, emerging markets are going to be

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[31:06] if you don't have any gold I you should definitely be buying it you know and if you don't have enough gold you should be buying more. But, you know, I think the pullback that we've had that started around the time that the war started with Iran... it was a buy the rumor, sell the fact

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[42:19] once they're sort of flushed out the system then it'll trade sideways for a while and then it'll start the next leg up and somewhere in there is kind of the nice buying opportunity

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[9:43] Bank of America reiterated 6,000 gold by the end of this year. Goldman Sachs is at 5,400 by the end of this year. Uh, JP Morgan is at 5,50 at the end of this year. These institutions have not typically been friendly to gold over the years... I would agree with that.

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[17:02] both of these metals medium to long-term are going to be great trades. And that's that's basically my thesis.

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[3:25] So you're going to see a continuous bid from the central banks in the gold market for for years to come. Uh it's far from over yet.

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[24:13] Gold on the other hand could pick a number. Gold can go from 4,000 to some crazy number because it's a it's part of the monetary system. And and we know that the fiat experiment as we know it is falling apart.

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[27:30] gold obviously took a hit whenever you have a the market perceived that the Fed's going to be a little little bit more hawkish, you generally get a little bit, uh, of a sell-off in gold. The issue there is that gold had a really, really powerful 2-year run. Uh, so I do think that it has to like build a new base... some bears would say gold's going to round trip, you know, all of its gains from 2024, 2025. I wouldn't be in that camp. Um, but it it did rise really quickly. A lot of the asymmetry was taken out of the trade, and I think it has to kind of find a bottom and and build a new base.

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[28:57] silver and gold have had their time in the sun for now... but not new alltime highs here. This is this was gone. This was the that was that time they they had their time with the sun and now you're going to see that coming to the equities and then you're going to see it coming into crypto

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[1:48] clearly we're going higher and the only issue is when. And I I think the when is this year. Um, maybe in the, you know, now it's beginning to look more like it's a third quarter thing, but we'll see.

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[3:59] if you miss the first run, this isn't a bad in my opinion, this isn't a bad time to be getting in. you know, buying in in the low fours or buying silver in the 60s or 70s. Um, you know, that's that's a that's a decent buy because I think we've got another couple coming.

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[37:47] Listen, we're going to see it hit 10,000. You know, I My point is gold is going to become the currency once again of the realm.

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[39:37] Gold is effectively the reserve currency. That's clear. Uh we still call the dollar the reserve currency and it will at least in the popular imagination remain that for a while simply because there's so many dollars out there. So much is denominated in dollars and so much business still carries on in dollars, but ultimately it's gold will become the reserve currency.

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[16:29] gold typically when when there is a seasonal effect, gold typically bottoms between the middle of July and the middle of August. So, we're not that far away.

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[15:20] I think in my next edition I'm going to reuse the headline that I used earlier a few months back of a washout in the Middle East and and we're going to get beyond that.

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[5:21] I now think the bottom is in. And what caused the bottom for me to be in is not the common persons that are always saying goals going up or always going down from Main Street Wall Street. But the sentiment from just January and February when it was all rocket ships, we're going to 10,000 tomorrow. Silver's going to be 300. Flipped basically 180

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[10:43] I think it's going to go up, I think it's going to go to a new high. I think the talks up much higher and eventually someday being 10,000 or more legitimate.

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[21:47] that tells us that gold will probably have a number of more years to go and a good bit higher before it's all over with.

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[10:50] I think the market will kind of restabilize to it'll be just higher for longer and things will tape.

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[5:04] My sense is that I believe that around $4,000 will be a floor in gold and it's simply based upon the low that we saw last week. And if we carry that back, you can see that this was also an area of support. My assumption right now is it's going to be and later on I'll explain why I believe that to be in terms of fundamental events.

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[16:23] At the same time, we have gold overtaking US Treasuries, right, as the dominant global reserve asset.

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[9:43] I think gold will now go beyond its ra higher again. And it would not surprise me at all if gold got to back to 5,500, even an outside shot at 6,000 before the year's over.

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[5:27] I think anytime you can you get a chance to buy gold around $4,000, you know, an ounce, I think that's attractive because I think what it's telling you right now is that, you know, uh, you know, some very long-term goal holders have been forced to sell.

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[13:50] it's premature to say gold is topped out and is is going to stay down.

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[12:05] Oh, absolutely. I'd be backing the truck up for both gold and silver.

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[37:27] this is why things like Bitcoin, things like gold, uh, I think will rise over the next decade.

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[9:51] Even if the top ends up being right around 5600, granted it's not 6,000. If that's the case, I think it's going to be a hard climb back up.

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[6:53] I think the bottom is probably closer to $4,000 an ounce. We'll see. But my point is, it's not, as long as you can understand what's going on, it's not a reason to panic. It's not a reason to sell all your gold. I think it'll be foolish. Quite the opposite, if you don't have any gold or perhaps you want to increase your allocation, it's a great buying opportunity.

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[7:59] you're on the launch pad. You're now you are ready to go to the moon. You're ready for the six seven $8,000 numbers I've talked about on your way to 10,000.

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[33:52] I believe that we will over the next 10 years experience at least a reversion to mean.

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[27:37] we could have a deeper correction, but is this like a longer term fundamental end? I don't think so.

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[1:49] I think ultimately the bottom doesn't really come in the 3500. I think it's stuck in a range for years if history is a guide.

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[39:30] Still like gold and the gold miners and I think that we're opening up a very nice uh, um, reopening opportunity um, in gold. I like the hard asset theme.

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[32:06] we are in a correction right now in the metals. Once that is over I think you're going to see the next leg up which will bring new all-time highs and even and an even stronger bull market because this whole devaluation of fiat currencies is not over.

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[29:24] That is actually still my base case is a period of correction and consolidation before the next big leg up.

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[25:01] I still think gold is going lower and my price target still remains by year end early 2027 at 3500 give or take. So again, I still think there's another $600 downside in gold before it becomes a major buyable level.

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[17:34] I think over the long term, absolutely. Short term, clearly there's something funky going on in the funding market and with correlations and who knows with algorithms and momentum trading. So, but yes.

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[42:58] I think if we consolidate, I'm still bullish on gold and and and and commodities till the end of the decade, right?

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[3:28] I think you know if if you want to draw an analogy I think the best is um if we compare it you know to climbing a mountain climbing Mount Everest which is uh 8 almost 8,900 m high which is almost exactly our long-term price target.

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[4:43] I think the market usually wants to see like the round number. So, I think that we will test the $4,000. Um, but I think, you know, you really want to be aggressive buyer at those levels.

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[45:05] seasonality. Usually we see like a bottom mid June uh and then um kind of a kind of a bounce and then the lows usually um late July, mid August from a seasonal point of view. Um and this is basically what we already wrote in in in this year's report. Don't expect too much from gold.

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[19:45] in spite of recent price behavior in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, you know, I'm still massively bullish on all three of these things. And, and we're just in kind of one of those periods where they they got ahead of themselves last year.

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[38:44] I think the prime beneficiary will be gold because I know what the Fed's going to do, right? When the government bond market goes lower, higher yields, when certain private credit problems pop up here and there, one here, one there. All it takes is a headline or two. Uh, and then suddenly the Fed underneath the surface, while they won't be talking about it, will be doing something. Print, print, print.

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[21:50] I know when it's done, we're going to see $10,000 gold by 2030, which was I also made that call at the beginning of 2025. So, that call is intact.

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[15:45] you might see 4,300 before you see 6,300, but the day of reckoning is coming. And so and you're boxed in. If interest rates go up, your interest expense goes up. If interest rates go down up, well, your opportunity cost of owning gold goes down. And so it's all long gold. Just a question of when.

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[0:00:23] it's going to be platinum, silver, and gold. Those are your winners.

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[29:37] we continued to see gold at 6,000 by the end of the year. Um we put that as as a limit um as a level as a level for this year um when we looked at our our January um which we do every year our January sort of forecast for the commodities that we're most looking at. Um, and I I don't see that changing.

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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.

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[14:36] in the long run, as I said, gold's going up a lot, but I pay a lot of attention to what's happening to sentiment in the short run... I think I think it'll be a it'll look good in a few years.

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[1:41] I I believe it is. I I I think what you're seeing in gold uh and also what you're seeing in silver is a digestion and a consolidation of the dramatic rise that we saw last year and the early part of this year. Uh we we know you can't sprint forever. You need to take a breather and I think that's exactly what's happening.

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[33:19] gold is the stable play here. This is where whatever happens, you're going to be good and you're probably going to increase it. Because that's what history tells us. This is why the central banks are buying gold at these levels.

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[34:11] gold and silver for for the decade. And so it it has both offensive and defensive uh components

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[11:59] Will gold go up? Of course it will because what's going on is our currencies are going through the floor. And um you know you know just because it pauses it doesn't mean to say it stopped. It's going to continue at an accelerating rate

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[18:19] I think gold's telling us something. Um we live in a highly volatile world today. Um so, I mean, if you look back 5 years ago, I think we're sitting at roughly $1,600 gold. Um you know, here we are. It's just under 5,000. Let's call it 4,500 today. Uh but, you know, that's sort of roughly a 160% increase over the last 5 years. Gold is a flight to safety. Um we're in a world that's incredibly volatile. And so, I think that's what we're seeing.

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[46:25] I would be shocked if you saw a threehandle on on gold and it would last a matter of seconds as the arbitrage would just gobble it all up.

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[2:22] And then I think gold is going to break out of this consolidation because investors have been focusing on the nominal increase in yields as if somehow that is a negative for gold. It's not.

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[10:05] gold has not made a higher high yet, although it looks like it's probably going to make a higher low. It doesn't look like it's going to drop below that March low to me. So, I think it's going to make a higher low and the higher high will come during the next daily cycle

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[11:13] I think we're going to go I think we'll retest the all-time highs during this intermediate cycle. Probably make higher highs.

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[11:34] back in the wall of worry depending on how long we can keep it there. We may have two, three more years. We might even we might even make it into the next eight-year cycle low, which is going to be doing 3030 and then we get our final parabolic move in metals into the top in 32 33.

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[18:38] metals, despite the fact that they're frustrating right now, I think are probably a good play over the next 2 3 months because I I think they will get some momentum here in the not too distant future.

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[14:56] in the early phase of a recession, gold doesn't do well. It never does well simply because people have less money to spend. and governments have not started to spend, you know, the money yet to get the economy going. As soon as they start to, you know, print money, then gold does well again. But in the early phase of a recession, it doesn't... So, um I think that they will solve the issue. But in short term, the gold price can go down

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[21:09] This is what's leading to the boom in precious metals and and and crypto but also those are assets but also to the growth of hedge fund assets structured product options trading. All of these things have an AUM tripled or quadrupled in four years in AUM and are still a tiny fraction of the broader investment universe.

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[7:54] I think we've seen the pullback in gold. I think we're seeing gold in consolidation. And I think the gold has already anticipated the higher rates. It's already anticipated what was going on. And I think now you're starting to see some new money buyers come in and holding it in consolidation, waiting for the next big move. And I happen to believe the next big move in gold will be higher. I could see new highs this year. In fact, you know, I believe that we're going to get to 6,000 this year in gold.

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[21:33] it's easy to project gold around whatever it is four five today being in double doubled digit numbers in 5 years time.

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[29:58] I think at the moment it's had it had its moment and and it will that moment is not likely to come again for quite some time... quite some time probably 2 years around the same time you think the stock market's going to crash.

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[31:10] So there will be an aftershock in gold and there will be an aftershock in silver.

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[21:54] That doesn't mean we don't like it long term. I think if you if you really want to own it for the next two or three years, you'll make plenty of money.

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[34:25] I think you need to continue to have gold and silver. Uh I think you need to look at copper... when you think about a pullback in gold prices, think is there a change in the monetary landscape? No. Is there a change in the fiscal landscape? No. Is there a change in the behavior of central banks? Are central banks going to purchase more US uh or euro or Japanese or UK debt or are they going to continue to purchase more gold? Therefore, there is an opportunity in a pullback.

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[39:01] historically and the seasonality is that we see a kind of a dull summer for the metals and I think that's going to be the case again. I wrote not in the report I sent you but previous one I expected to see a broad trading range for both gold and silver probably through the summer. I still believe that

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[15:03] I know this is just setting a base from which it's gonna have to move up that much higher and I think um this is also true of oil

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[0:45] my guest today says the consensus is wrong. He argues we're entering the final parabolic meltup of a 44year bull market, a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.

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[12:30] gold probably less so maybe 30 or 40% but it could go 50

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[14:23] let's say we get 7,000, you get a 50% correction, takes you back down to, you know, 3500. From there, um, you could see 20,000 in gold by the early 2030s.

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[2:55] I'm I'm bullish on gold in the short term and the long term.

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[19:08] god forbid the price of gold goes up which I for expect it will these stocks could double triple without any problem at all... I think I think gold and gold miners go higher.

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[25:24] do you think gold, it sounds like you think gold has peaked? Yeah. And if it does, are we in in more of a fluid situation where we'll see it move up and down or is this sort of peaked and we're going to face another one of these decades long period where we're sideways? Exactly. You you nailed it. The ladder is exactly way to do it. So, typically the way it works in gold and silver, we should expect years of bad performance after a period like this of way of outperformance.

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[22:58] I think you have to get enough selling now to get rid of those momentum people. And that's probably going to mean another 500, maybe as much as $500 down from here. You know, 4,000 or lower.

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[11:00] gold will already be out of this congestion zone and silver will be well out of this congestion zone into the next massive multiple which we think is coming and largely might be seen fully or largely by the end of this summer. It's a very rapid event.

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[16:33] don't be surprised if we either retest the March low or retest the 200 day moving average because there's just that heaviness in the trading where you haven't, you know, the the the buyers haven't been able to to get the price back over to the 50-day to, you know, get it into that short-term uptrend, which just suggests that you're in that digestion period after a really powerful parabolic move

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[38:28] my interest in gold is the continued debasement of the dollar and all currencies for that matter and that's going to continue and so gold's going to continue to appreciate over time.

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[7:02] And then also keep some of the commodities in the precious metals cycle because I think that again we're going to continue to see upward pressure on a number of key commodities and also on gold just because of the monetary instability.

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[18:04] is gold going to 6,000, 8,000, 10,000. I think it is eventually... I think gold and the miners and silver and the miners are going much higher.

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[23:54] gold has now made a fool out of the dollar and it's it's going to make more of a fool of the dollar... We certainly didn't reach peak gold in 2025. We're in the very first innings because the fundamentals just haven't changed.

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[33:05] you can look out and say look do I think oil and a is going to be higher in price in a year's time in 6 months time yes but somewhere between here and there is the mother of all demand destructions coming a spike demand destruction collapse and then sort of the structural underpinning higher so it is a you know I I for me I think it depends on your time horizon you it looks to me like we are in a new sort of secular commodity bull market.

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[0:19] I think the secular bull market is still in place and gold secular bull will probably peak out at $6,000 to $7,000 an ounce.

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[15:45] Modi is on his knees. He's asking his resident. But what do you think they're going to, you know, think when your president tells you not to buy something? They're going to say, well, you know, he's going to depreciate our currency even more and it's going to have the complete total opposite effect. Okay? The demand for gold is going to go up.

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[14:37] I truly believe that we will see gold at some point before the end of the year challenge $6,000 per ounce.

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[18:47] I think that we probably won't ever get back to those levels that we had prior to where we are today. But I think that you'll see gold flatline. You'll see the flows in the west be a little bit slower than maybe they have been in terms of the investor flows.

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[24:25] I think you're still due for some volatility on the short term, but structurally, again, structurally, I think that there's a market for gold to continue to be on the upward trajectory.

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[12:08] I've been pounding the table for real assets for the last five, you know, 10 years really with the with the gold price. Um and that's just an argument that you know in an inflationary environment when the debt uh is doing what it's doing and the central bank has been ultra dovish for so long um you really want to own real assets in favor of financial assets.

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[37:06] one of the best periods to own energy stocks and precious metals and things was that 2000 to 2010 time frame, which was a lost decade in the stock market. So, you know, these things go in cycles and uh you know, it's it's really hard to kind of maintain a long-term perspective sometimes when you see what the market's doing in the short term.

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[36:38] gold get up you get you get above 4,800 again and I'd say you know wipe your brow if you've been panicked

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[6:22] the increase in US interest rates and the so-called flight to quality around the world is driving the US dollar higher and likely driving gold either sideways to down.

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For retail investors, Frisby outlines his $10,000 gold target by 2030

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I still think we're a good five or 10 years from that, if not more. It's it's it's stating at 2,00 you know, 2,300 and something tons the lowest amount it can state and be credible.

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[32:45] If you don't have gold before that moment in time, you'll probably be able to get some if the purchasing of gold hasn't been banned and governments aren't hoarding all the gold for themselves, but you're going to pay a significantly higher price for it and have to jump through a lot more hoops, I suspect.

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[8:16] And to me, it's not if it will go to 7,000 is when. Might be a couple of years, might be five years. I don't think we'll see it this year.

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[11:40] So we're at 4,600. So if you buy now, be prepared to buy even lower. I think 4,300 is my target. I think I think we're going over the next two months.

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[12:07] I think this one's going to go at least one more month. At least one more month and possibly six months. So, we're looking at a five month to six month correction. So, we won't get an all-time high. We won't get that $1,000 back for at least a month. Um, maybe two or three months.

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[27:27] And I think 2028 it'll go through 2028. But I'm not I'm not uber bullish gold in 2029. And so I want to get out. I actually want to be completely out in early 28 because I think the cycle is gonna we're starting to get towards the end.

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[25:38] So I I I so when you know gold goes to 5600 my goodness it went straight up

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[11:55] it's going to result in a tremendous amount of demand. Um you know uh tether dollar is a simply a conduit. you know, you start you convert into TAD to bring into crypto and then you're gonzo into, you know, other alternative better products and, you know, what's a better store of value than, you know, tokenized gold.

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[15:40] now and gold is only a year into a 10-year run.

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[0:09] Gold and silver trade sideways for a year or two or three.

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[30:06] By the by the end of the year, it's going to be higher than it is right now. it it it might not hit hit the six to $7,000 range because yeah that that would that would require the kind of fantastic increase we had in the past which I don't know if we'll see again but yeah we're going bank we're going up

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[18:22] we're still talking 46 $4,700 gold and 7075 silver.

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[22:27] There will be shortterm uh declines there. Short-term meaning, you know, not 10 a 10 year decline, but uh uh in in gold and silver as people run for the exits everywhere. Okay? And uh so they sell what they can and uh if you can't sell individual stocks that you want to get rid of then you have to sell stuff that you can sell where there is a bidder and that would would also be the precious metals. So the precious metals will have a decline but always bottoms out much earlier than the general stock market. And as soon as the big investors uh decide they want to get in again, they will buy it. And then you see gold and silver, they're going to fly sky high.

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[4:42] gold from a bullish standpoint has is forming what could be a very big bull flag pattern. And this points to dramatically higher pricing going forward. This depending on where we draw from, it's pointing to 8,000 plus for gold.

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[5:38] So it's saying that we could see gold come back down to about 4,000 or 4100. That's a 61% extension to the downside and it could go all the way down to about 35 3600.

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[14:25] Get it done within the next five or six weeks.

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[17:37] Gold up or down by the end of the year? >> Yeah, probably down.

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[25:54] I think gold is likely to trade between 3,000 and 6,000 for a decade.

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[0:00] I would not be the least bit surprised if we get to new all-time highs in gold and new all-time highs in silver and other commodities too because this is a commodity phenomenon. Gold and silver are just first in line and uh I expect all commodity prices to trend higher for new all-time records this year.

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[6:51] the word that they're sort of sharing um with the investment world is that that $6,000 goal is attainable.

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[23:05] So here we are today, you know, gold 4500 or or wherever it is. You're kind of at the low end of what happens in sort of historical gold inflationary periods... We actually think the equities are not discounting spot. We think spot prices can hold.

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[9:31] But I truly believe that we will conclude I would say over the next four months above 5600. It could be 6 months. It could be shorter.

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[1:31] I do think that gold is going to go through 6,000 once the dust settles on what's happening in Iran.

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[3:02] The key though when we look at gold and I'll try to pick another chart okay where we look at gold it has moved from the end of October 2025 from 4,000 to 5600 $1600 move when it retraced the bottom of that retracement is where I mark my 100 or zero point on the fib level but the the secondary high that we had was a lower high and then we had a lower low. Typically in a market where you get a lower high and lower low is significant in that it could be really anticipating what we call um a level of support or resistance that's just been broken. And the one thing that I tend to do to confirm or deny that basic assumption is put up my moving averages. I'm going to do that right now. I've also added the MACD. And so what we can see is that when we look first of all at our stochastics, you can see how it dipped and is now below or went below 20. For those unfamiliar with this technique, all a stochastic oscillator is, and we use oscillators and momentum. The oscillator is basically plotting a line comparing the highest high over a certain period to the current high. And so when the stochastics come down like this, it becomes extremely overbought. This is what we saw back in March. You can see where it got very topheavy back in January and it broke above the 80 and here below the 60. So, we've seen a real significant move up on the stochastic. We have also seen that on the MACD, which is simply moving average convergence, divergence. We are not quite overbought yet, but we're getting in that territory. When you look at commodities versus stocks, a stock that has been trending higher uh for a year, even with dips along the way, will consistently be overbought because the price target keeps moving up. That level keeps moving up. We're seeing that in gold, whereas we're not rangebound on a longer term basis by any means. We hit an all-time record high. We did get a lower high, then we did get a lower low. What we really need to see and I believe there's a good chance of it on a technical basis is this current rally which began after that extreme low of 4100 breaks through 49 4900 because if we do that there's really no resistance till about 5100

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[10:52] I think 7 $8,000 is kind of where we're going.

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[16:50] I think we're going back down to at least 4,300, maybe even lower.

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[10:45] gold is a very very big winner and anyone that has gold on on an individual level I think over the longer term is going to do exceptionally well.

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[35:12] if you look at money supply and things like that, I've, you know, gone and looked at some of the numbers and you you come up with something like 18,000.

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[13:31] I think gold might come back to life and push up to 5,000 or a little bit deeper uh 5100 or so.

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[19:36] Well longterm is the easy one. I think we're going higher. That's that's a simple one there. As I mentioned before, I I I don't think any of the reasons why we rally to $5,600 in gold or $120 in silver has disappeared. Nothing has changed fundamentally. So, the fundamentals are still in place.

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[23:37] I think the trend is still higher for gold.

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[30:44] I anytime you see gold on a year-over-year basis that is two to three times standard deviation of the average performance, it underperforms for the two next two years.

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[14:14] Well, it looks like precious metals have found their floor, doesn't it? And that's something that we discussed as being um maybe in its infancy after this big sell-off. Uh but it certainly looks like people are finding a hiding place whether they're concerned about a a credit event which is increasingly the odds are are increasing that that's going to happen because again we're still in a higher for longer regime.

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[30:12] I'm currently in long gold futures and I want to be getting long miners as well.

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[53:59] Gold and silver: why he expects a major decline from here

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[6:12] So if I'm buying gold equities today, I have a firm belief that 5 to 10 years from now, the gold price is going to be materially higher than it is today.

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[34:34] my underlying thesis, and we've shared this on your show numerous times, is that over the next nine or 10 years, the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power, while gold likely maintains its purchasing power.

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[17:10] So uh in the long term uh the gold is going a lot higher. gold is going above 10,000 an ounce. Um and and probably a lot higher than that.

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[2:10] the thing is uh our administration has a reputation for flip-flopping. So I'm not sure you know to what degree can you take these announcements... what this really does is in the long term it's very fundamentally bullish for uh gold.

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[21:53] Yes. And they're done. So, so gold is like uh one of those tests you can take that does a body scan that tells you if you're going to be sick or something. Gold runs before the crisis. If you notice, it went to a thousand March of 2008 before there was a problem six months later. It went up before the CO stuff, you know, came out like the flu panic. So, there's all these instances where gold runs and nobody can figure out why. Well, gold ran to 5600 and everybody was like, 'This is amazing.' you know this is going to be but you know it was 30 like 37 trillion was the value of gold at that point which is like more than half the value of the entire US stock market. I mean it's sort of like it got like a little bit disproportionately ahead of itself and then we have a global conflict and now the price is settling back down. I mean 4600 that's a pretty good price David for gold you know that's like that's like 334 trillion dollars worth of gold.

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[19:42] My guess is that gold probably will start to do uh do well over the coming uh months and probably years.

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[5:09] I'm still in the camp that I was a year ago that it's going to end up much higher than even it got in January.

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[19:26] I think that gold is going to go down again uh in coming weeks

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[28:36] I think there's a chance that it'll dip below 4100

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[14:29] I do think gold probably settles out at uh 7500 to 10,000 and very well could go above that

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[0:11] Gold is now trading more than it should be by historical levels. But that doesn't mean it couldn't go to $10,000 an ounce or more because who wants to hold the dollar?

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[29:56] We think gold probably goes down and touches its 200 day moving average. Probably the same with silver, but that might actually present an opportunity to buy some, um, add some.

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[7:01] And at some point, well, the what comes next is called a a crackup boom in the Austrian School of Economics. That's when a critical mass of people realizes that it's the government's policy to inflate away the currency. So, they just dump the currency. When they get paid, they convert that money into real stuff and then the currency falls off the table, which is the same thing as saying the price of the real stuff goes through the roof. And you know, look at gold and silver. We're kind of there right now.

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[19:04] So, I would just tell anybody out there, if you've got money, sure you want to put it into oil, that's going to pay off for you, oil and gas, but don't walk away from precious metals because in the long run, they are going to go through the roof.

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[27:13] We're very bullish on gold and silver. It's just beginning again. The death of the dollar is before our eyes.

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[5:46] I think we're going to see it go higher by the end of this year.

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[21:44] we're going to see most likely a big move towards in my view um you know comp countries starting to use gold uh as a currency either through a gold standard uh fix uh you know a fixed state of their currency with gold um backing gold in in a certain way with with their fiat currencies.

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[1:32] And based on longerterm charting, it's still telling me that gold is going to eventually break this 44 to 4,300 level and trade down to 3900, which you can see is a pivot low here. Eventually, I'm still looking at a retest of this major former level here going back to basically every hit from April of 2025 all the way to August of 2025 before we broke out. We should go back and test that level.

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[21:09] I think gold will continue to be a strong performer.

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[24:37] Now, they're signaling to us over the next 5 years a decline in the dependency on fiat currencies, the dollar and the euro in particular.

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[32:39] the gold price can fall to $4,000 or it could fall to $3,800. It can actually fall even further and still be in a long upward trend. We think that the gold price probably will trade stay above 3 $3,800 4,000 in the near term and that the price will probably consolidate with a slight upward bias over the next year uh and move slightly and move somewhat higher in starting in the last four months of this year and going into 2027 and possibly going into 2028.

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[25:57] I think gold now is on the way back to probably the 50-day moving average, maybe slightly above 5,000

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[24:28] I wouldn't be surprised if gold actually would want to come back down here maybe below yeah maybe below $4,000 at some point. maybe testing this whole uh uh support that the the top from last year April 3,500

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[38:48] I think um a lot of people all over the world are going to realize gold is just a much better um money than the dollar and you'd rather not be financing the US government as it does all of these crazy insane criminal uh things around the world. So I think we'll see more demand for X aut

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[12:17] gold is not going to go up after just streaking from from 2,000 to 5,000 in the last 3 years. It's part of the bubble

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[19:20] I used to have my target for a 50% crash in gold now to get back to normal levels it's going to have to crash 70 to 80 okay

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[17:04] gold once we crash here and come down to reality that means gold goes down to maybe a,000 $2,000 instead of 5600 here recently

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[4:39] I would expect gold to trade back to let's say potentially 46 to 4700.

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[6:46] I think we're still on pace for $10,000 gold. It just may be a couple years away.

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[20:43] My guess is we'll see somewhere in that $3,500 range, but it will be very short-lived. And so, you know, the idea is is that the wash out of the weak hands... My guess is 3500ish give or take. It won't last very long and we will be back towards 5,000 within 3 to 6 months.

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[6:52] I think gold could go on another, you know, maybe 30 40% run, which is why I've still got my miners because that will probably go up 50 or 60%.

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[0:15] I'm not a fan of gold. I think initially goes to 4,000. That I haven't said that in decades. I fully expect silver to go back to near 50 and gold initially to buy to drop down to 4,000.

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[36:58] I don't think gold's going to stay under 5,000 for long.

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[5:46] I'm actually still buying today because I think the gold price is going a lot higher than than where it is today considering the amount of debt deficits.

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[5:04] I think if if we speak 12 months from now, we'll have a totally different situation. Now, it's still debatable whether the price discovery is in Shanghai or in Chicago in 12 months. everybody will agree it moved to Shanghai.

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[27:42] I actually think that you know prices of metals are going to be elevated for the next 5 to 10 years.

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[5:47] I believe gold and silver are still in long-term uptrends

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[2:26] and by the end of the decade, I'm saying gold's going to be 10,000.

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[22:30] It broke above this 5100 little resistance here. It has upside to about 5,400... you're probably headed to about 5400 in the next days or week or so.

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[2:37] I suspect gold's going a lot higher. I have no idea how high it will go. That will depend a whole number of factors, geopolitical, economic, monetary, and otherwise.

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[13:12] That's why I believe there's still a retest of those lows that were made in the high 60s in silver and around 44 4500 on gold.

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[18:51] I'd be surprised if gold, you know, didn't come back to the low 4,000s

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[4:28] with that in mind I think 6,000 is within reach in the next 12 months but it does obviously depend as well how deep the correction is going to be.

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[30:06] I'll be very very surprised if gold gets below 4,000. Okay that that that's my view

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[9:24] So, from now till the 2020 elections, I'm probably bullish on gold.

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[34:14] My floor is probably around $4,300 right now. That's a lot lower than it is now. Yes, it is. But my ceiling is probably around 5,500.

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[4:50] So a year from now, gold is going to be more expensive than it is right now. The same thing for silver.

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[9:58] And believe me, there's going to be another zero in our lifetime. And and and that will be tenfold. So you say, "Well, it can't be 10fold. That's impossible." But it did it. It went from 20 to 200 to 2,000. But here we are at $2,000. And it could be now what what I'm saying. It could be 20,000.

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[7:57] when we do correct, this 4,300 likely becomes your next base point, right? That's where you're going to hold on to the major gains most likely

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[14:02] I still think it's going to 10,000. The question is in what year?

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[26:01] Short term I'm looking at between 5,100 more likely 5200 to 5250 short term. I'm talking about before the end of this quarter.

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[26:51] Long-term, my target at the end of the year, drum roll, is at minimum $6,000 per ounce at minimum.

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[6:06] I don't think that either metal is going to move with the rapidity that they moved in 2025.

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[17:10] I guarantee you and I guarantee very little that in this bull market the gold price will from time to time fall back by at least 30%.

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[7:17] I think metals are probably going to be lower than where they are. I think stocks are going to be sharply lower.

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[7:38] I think we're also potentially just a couple weeks potentially from a precious metals uh top

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[38:43] that's good for hard commodities. So, keeps a secular bull market going in gold, silver, copper, platinum

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[13:01] 5,000 is the big psychological level in gold. I I do expect gold to to to take 5,000 um probably in the first half of this year of a high price of 5,400, which basically is a 30% yearon-year um gain.

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[13:39] basically expect gold to to average 4500 this year

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[1:00] I would expect and I would not be surprised to see gold touch 6,000 at some point during the year of uh of 2026.

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[1:24] General directions, 40 on on Bitcoin, 10 on gold. It's going to be a a mighty heave to get to 10 for gold next year, but I think that's going to be either next year or 2027.

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[28:05] That tells me gold's going to go down 74%.

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[31:40] I expect before the end of 2026 we'll be at 5,000.

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[19:56] generally speaking, we still think that there's more upside and and and we're still long these commodities

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[13:06] I will guarantee you, David, and I don't guarantee much, that the gold market in the next 10 years will fall by 30% or more at least twice.

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[9:54] I believe uh for reasons that you and I have discussed uh at infinitum perhaps even adnauseium uh that the purchasing power of the dollar declines for 10 years which means that the nominal price of gold increases for 10 years.

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[34:53] So, I think we're going to see near-term gold trade down close to 30 under 3,800. Price target is 3750.

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[25:49] And the next move from here is actually pointing to, you know, 50 uh 51 $5200 per ounce for gold... first level here is going to be the 46 $4,700 for gold and then I think we could go up here.

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[35:38] I think gold may hold up. I think the demand to move um assets or kind of exposure out of the US and the US dollar in particular uh will probably go on for a while longer at least as long as Trump is there and causing chaos. I think a lot of central banks and a lot of you know people outside the US are trying to look for alternatives to the US dollar. There aren't a lot of good alternatives. So that's why gold has been has benefited.

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[30:13] 5K next year to me is a no-brainer. 5K next year is a no-brainer.

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[29:17] And that tells me that we could come back as low as 36 to 3500 before the next bull move.

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[3:00] I really believe that $5,000 now is only a question of when, not if.

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[1:33] they're both going to go much higher and they're both ways of protecting yourself against inflation.

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[20:28] I think gold's going to 10,000 20,000 50,000 because that's how much fiat money has been printed

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[37:27] it would not surprise us if there's a pullback here in the gold and silver price over the course of couple of quarters. Um, and with the way that gold moves, just for instance, it got above $4,000. Uh, if it fell even all the way back to $3,000 an ounce, that that wouldn't shock us.

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[9:55] So the the calls outnumber the puts by about a 2:1 margins and and that suggests that the consolidation around 4,000 it it's it's going up not not going down. It'll it'll hold at 4,000 and probably go up. The the options market is betting uh that it's going up from 4,000.

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[14:50] I would say that that investors should be very cautious about um about some of the froth coming out of the recent moves in gold and that they could see a continued consolidation there.

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[4:41] it can either drop easily back a third which would be around 3500 and to go from here to 5,000 anytime soon is um would be you know I'm already pointing out how historically stretched it is now would just be um unprecedented.

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[0:00] 4,000 is really the new 3,000 for gold. So 4,000 is kind of the support. This is not, you know, the end of this. It's gold's going a lot higher.

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[11:26] when gold comes down into this area, uh, it's going to rally up to 4,800 and then about to 6,500. So, there's quite a bit of potential still to the upside. I don't think it's going to quite get to this level on this run. I think we're going to stall out probably 48, maybe 5,000 maybe.

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[1:35] gold will continue its secular rise. It never moves in a straight direction. And Frankly, we're all surprised by the speed of the last few months or the certainly last 12 months in general, but we're not surprised by the direction. And I think even at these nominal prices, gold is still very undervalued

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[29:06] You give if you give me a shot at 3500 on gold, I'm buying it right there. That's a great opportunity.

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[32:31] I'll contradict myself in that what's got the momentum and the momentum is precious metals and AI stocks. So that you know you said the last quarter that's two months to 3 months to four months. They probably will continue to be the best performers.

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[7:27] acceptable correction would easily be about a 23.6% retracement and that would take gold to around 3890

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[3:26] I'd be looking at gold to be at 5,000 by the end of the Trump administration. Well, it could be by Christmas at this rate.

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[1:55] our expectation has been all along that the gold price would be rising in through 2025 into 2026 uh and would reach new levels in 2026, maybe going into 2027

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[37:08] we have gold trading around 4,000 by the end of this year

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[37:40] we have gold trading around 4,000 4,100 for most of next year

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[9:12] I have about 4,100 as the next upside target for gold. Uh we've had this nice run. You and I actually talked about this level last time we were on. And uh and that's kind of where where gold is headed. I think we're going to see it potentially hit 41. it could actually blow past it.

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[37:06] But I still think there's quite a bit of upside in the precious metal space for gold, silver, and miners. I I don't think like I'm not saying it's topping right now.

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[18:31] I think the this secular bull market and gold that we've been in, David, will maybe end up at $6,000 an ounce, not 5,000.

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[0:18] I I truly find it difficult to envisage a scenario in the next 12 months where gold will be lower, and that makes me nervous

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[26:40] I think we can see double that in in the next uh in the next 5 years... I think we can see why not 5,000 gold prices in 5 years from now

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[10:16] So I think that ratio is going back to 100 because I see gold heading to 4,000.

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[15:14] My best guess is that the stag part will be fleeting and we probably go quickly into a more reflationary boom. And maybe then the Fed says, "Oh, you know, we need to fight inflation again." But by then it's too late. By then, Powell's hopes of being remembered as a vulker are out the window and he's going to be remembered as another Arthur Burns.

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[28:26] somebody doesn't, you know, they missed it. They don't have any gold. They haven't bought any gold stocks. I am right now, my guidance is yes, I would buy at these levels because I I think we have a floor here. I I see relatively little downside.

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[25:37] I think that will happen actually fairly if it does occur. I believe it could occur over the next uh two to three weeks. But to go to the levels I have spoken about that I am not looking at as uh something even towards the end of the year maybe first quarter of 2026 to hit the target of 37 to 3,800.

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[25:41] I believe it could occur over the next uh two to three weeks.

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[23:08] I think there is still an increase coming in the price of gold and I've been saying that when it was at the beginning of the year it was about 2600 an ounce and we are about $800 higher and I still find it very attractive in terms of where they can go

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[19:24] I would argue gold probably outperforms Bitcoin only because I do think at some point in the next 12 months, you're going to have another draw down and risk off period.

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[0:00] And that's why I think gold is performing so well and why gold I think is close to a 20 to about 40% rally depending on what happens over the next really week or two or really actually just next week.

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[31:55] structurally speaking, looking out three to five years, uh, I I continue to be quite bullish on Bitcoin and gold

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[36:17] I'm gonna say 4,000. I do think we'll pull back close to 3,000, but if I have to say by year end, I think gold is closer to 4,000. I think instability, I think, again, eventually the economy will continue to weaken slowly, but it'll weaken. Um, and I think that pushes more people into gold.

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[2:54] I think we're just in chapter 2. And I've been saying that for years because there's so much more to come.

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[14:44] the longer term implications and direction for this price as trusted store of value is way past the dollar debate or the Bitcoin debate. It's really gold is emerging as central to the new system.

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[10:06] That doesn't mean gold goes to 10,000 on July 24th, but you have to follow the direction of the puck. China, love them or hate them, are playing the long game.

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[19:25] So to me, that means positioning wise there is more juice that can push it higher.

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[24:20] Oh, I think that, you know, for the end of the year, for the next 6 months, I think that all the safe plays are going to be probably the play to go with. It's going to be energy, it's going to be gold

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[15:55] Are we suggesting that this regime is going to be perpetually bullish for gold in the next 2 3 years until at least Trump leaves office? Can we make that assessment? I think so. I think so.

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[12:18] Um but I do believe gold very long-term probably does continue to trend higher. I just worry about those periods when everybody is talking about it.

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[26:04] strong bullish bias here with upside easily to four, maybe $5,000 over the next year or two.

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[20:11] No, I think there's more opportunity in the mining companies now than than in gold. So, I'm stressing uh my investments in in mining companies uh over gold. I think gold has made its big move and I think it's going to struggle from here for for a while.

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[9:48] I honestly still feel that gold is going to stall out and roll over.

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[7:42] Bitcoin and gold will both in secular appreciation uh cycles

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[23:52] I don't think they're finished. Now, that's not to say, though, and I think people should be aware of this, that if you had a 3500 gold price and gold corrects to 2,900, let's say, you know, that's fairly normal after you get a really big move in gold. And and what you don't want to do in these sorts of things, if you believe in it over the next 5 years, which we do, you don't want to get shaken out on that down tick

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[36:37] to me, the the best currency in the world has been and is very likely to continue to be gold

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[21:49] it does point to $3687 an ounce as the next leg higher.

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[21:26] gold wants to correct down to about 31.45, which is about a 5% drop from here.

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[8:34] it can correct 10 or 20% from its high, but nevertheless, I still think eventually it'll be a lot higher than the ultimate high that it had just the other day.

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[1:28] we're looking for gold prices to average around 2700 or so uh over the next year or so and we're looking for a higher average price in 2026.

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[2:05] our annual average projected for 2025 is about $2,960. $2,956.

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[25:34] I think the way gold is moving, it's moving toward a buying climax here in the 30,000 somewhere. So I uh I'm expecting uh a buying climax

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[16:33] I think precious metals, even though they're on fire right now, I think they're going to they're going to get hit. They're going to sell off

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[24:35] My next target is 3,275. We've pretty much hit that

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[25:53] I think gold is closer to peaking here. I think if you like some gold, it's a good diversifier. It won't go down as much. I'd say 1,100 to,400 is the downside on that

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[8:37] So my sense is that at some point I believe that it will hopefully occur this week you will see gold begin to disconnect from the selling pressure that we're seeing in equities.

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[22:31] My census gold will trade to 3500. It's the when that I'm a little bit more conservative conservative than other analysts. Right now I'm I'm looking at the top potential top of gold. This of course are calculations done before the fall but they're still relevant. anywhere between 3,350 and 3,400 an ounce. 3,500 an ounce. If I had to calculate, I would have looked for a second quarter next year.

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[15:48] I don't think gold is the way to play this because now I think there's manic uh optimism on gold and typically in margin calls the first thing that investors do is sell their winners as a source of liquidity. Gold happens to be one of the few winners left in this. So I think it's going to be a a place for selling pressure.

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[15:41] I think the precious metals will do very well

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[13:59] Uh right now I'm still bullish on gold. Uh I think gold has had the majority of its upside move. I think we could see gold potentially the next upside target for gold is about 3,275.

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