Daniel Lacalle Predictions
Chief Economist at Tressis
Track Daniel Lacalle's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[5:33] sovereign bonds particularly long-term sovereign bonds have stopped being the reserve asset the safe haven that gave you a cushion of return in an environment of weakness that the 6040 portfolio used to provide. You need to look elsewhere for that 40% uh out of out of equities.
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[13:38] I think we'll get persistently higher yields because as we have seen central banks do cut rates and they have cut rates despite for example in the UK you saw uh inflation was rising and still the bank of England reduce rates but you know what happens is that the bank of England cuts rates and in very little time bond yields are back have completely offset that rate cut
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[12:27] the demolition of the of the purchasing power of the currency is is virtually inevitable. So housing is going to become more more challenging. That's why real assets are soaring in value.
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[16:25] Yeah, I think that that is exactly what what I believe is likely to continue to happen. This this enormous discrepancy between what people perceive about the real economy and what they see in markets. No. uh and and and it's and all and and that means higher markets, higher indices
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[17:50] the companies that are melting up the technology giants they're immune to inflation. they're immune to uh the geopolitical concerns or the or the weakness in manufacturing that may happen in some economies in others not etc. They're in a different league and I think that that is likely to continue.
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[18:10] We are likely to see energy melting up and then melting down very very quickly
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[34:25] I think you need to continue to have gold and silver. Uh I think you need to look at copper... when you think about a pullback in gold prices, think is there a change in the monetary landscape? No. Is there a change in the fiscal landscape? No. Is there a change in the behavior of central banks? Are central banks going to purchase more US uh or euro or Japanese or UK debt or are they going to continue to purchase more gold? Therefore, there is an opportunity in a pullback.
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[32:29] The way I see about precious metals silver and gold particularly is that you need to look at them on a longer term perspective... I think you need to continue to have gold and silver.
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[33:37] Would I be long oil at these levels? Not very not not a lot. I would be very very worried about such level of deep backwardation in the forward curve. But that doesn't mean that oil prices are going to go to $50 a barrel. they would only go to 50 if obviously there is a financial crisis as in 2008 and I don't see that happening
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[34:33] This is not very politically correct. I've been saying it for a while. Look at coal. Everybody is is ignoring coal. But China is is using more coal. Germany is using more coal. Look, we're investors. We're not here to to to to take decisions in our portfolios based on what we would like to happen. But what is likely to happen is that there will be more use of coal
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[27:34] all those things that are macro are are absolutely correct... it is better to have an overweight position in US stocks relative to others that are also interesting but don't and also the units of risk that you need to take in order to generate the same returns that you get in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ in the MSCI world or in the or in the stock 600 uh are much higher.
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[12:31] That's why real assets are soaring in value. It's not that they are soaring in value for no reason. is that the the it's discounting the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency and obviously unfortunately that is going to get worse
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[41:54] I don't think that they're going to get resolved... in the case of the Ukraine Russia war, you have Russia saying that they're winning. You have Ukraine saying that they're winning. No, none of them is winning. It's a very very sad situation.
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