David Rosenberg Predictions
Economist, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research and Associates
Track David Rosenberg's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[0:03] I think that this next bare market and it will happen because cycles have not been repealed. Cycles are part of life. But the next bare market is going to hurt a lot more than the other ones that we witnessed in the past six, seven decades.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[19:19] I think that there's too much inflation talk, not enough recession talk. I think bonds will be a good place to be. You're not going to make a killing, but I think that uh you'll do fine.
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[18:26] what we're going to be left with is negative real wage growth which came out of the that that was the main message out of the non-forpe report that came out for May is that once we get the CPI numbers uh for April, we're going to see yet again the second month in a row real wages are contracting and unless the savings rate goes down to zero that's going to lead to negatives in real consumer spending.
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[19:21] I think bonds will be a good place to be. You're not going to make a killing, but I think that uh you'll do fine.
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[23:58] You don't have to have a PhD economics to know that this ongoing movements in these supply demand curves are going to cause prices to continue to move higher.
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[34:18] the midterms, there's going to be again, we have so many imbalances, divergences, but you know, politics will play a role in mean reverting some of the stuff we're talking about. Uh because the Democrats are probably there's a good chance that they'll have a clean sweep in the midterms and then we'll see what happens in 2028.
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[18:16] I think that recession risks are higher than most people priced it. And I think the inflation that people are all freaking out about, including the Fed, is going to hit the wall in the labor market.
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[0:20] I think this economy, especially in the second half of the year when a lot of the short-term stimulus falls by the wayside, uh is going to be showing some significant strain.
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[5:35] And I'll tell you right now that a recession is probably off the table uh for the next several quarters uh just from all these spending commitments alone.
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[19:43] I'm watching this thing that tends to move glacially, but I'm looking for a reversal in this one particularly important aggregate that is very complex called the personal savings rate.
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[39:03] I'm not talking about geopolitical tail risks. I'm not talking about that. I'm telling you probably in four weeks I'll turn extremely bullish on what's going to happen with the world. That's my own personal belief.
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As of May 8, 2026 (four weeks after the prediction), the Iran war has not favorably resolved. While a fragile ceasefire was agreed on April 8 and a one-page MOU is being negotiated, both sides continue to accuse each other of violations, the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, US gasoline costs 50%+ more than pre-war, and no final agreement has been reached. The situation is far from a favorable resolution. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire)
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[1:54] Silver though looks very dangerous to me. Okay. So, I would just say if you've been longing the trade, either take profits or find a way to hedge your position. I do think we are in a secular bull market uh in commodities and in the precious metals complex. So, this is not to say that the bull market is over. It is to say that we are right for a very significant near-term pullback
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[9:24] So, from now till the 2020 elections, I'm probably bullish on gold.
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[21:26] emerging market bonds uh are looking local currency because the US dollar is in a bare market and that's going to continue
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[12:15] What I'll tell you is data back to 1948 that in an employment slowdown, when non-farm payrolls get to 0.6% year-over-year, you are in a recession 100% of the time. 11 for 11... you could build the assumption that a recession is probably already starting
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[26:52] you're going to ask me what will knock investors off this view that there's no recession next year is if we start printing negative non-farm payrolls month in month out. And we are at the cutting edge right now
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[32:15] So I think 3.75% is a gimme. I think we're going to blow below that in the next 12 months. I wouldn't be surprised if we get into call it a a three to three and a half% range between now and this point next year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the 10-year Treasury yield would fall to the 3-3.5% range within 12 months, but the period low was only 3.947% (on 2025-10-21), which did not reach the claimed 3-3.5% range.
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[32:34] And I think that you're going to find that the much maligned, ignored, despised treasury market is going to be the one market that is going to be delivering equity-like returns over the next 12 months.
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[38:11] I think we're going down to new cycle lows in the US dollar between now and the end of the year.
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The prediction claimed the US Dollar would fall to 'new cycle lows' by end of year; the period low of $96.22 on 2025-09-17 represents a 4.7% decline from the prediction date price of $101, confirming that new cycle lows were indeed reached during the prediction window.
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[37:21] I think I think let me just add by the way uh the Fed will be scrambling to cut interest rates in the second half of the year
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed did cut interest rates in the second half of 2025, beginning in September 2025 and making three consecutive quarter-point cuts (September, October, December), lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75%. However, the cuts were measured and deliberate, not a 'scramble' — they were debated and even contested within the FOMC, with the December cut passing only 9-3. The prediction's framing of 'scrambling' implies urgency or panic that didn't materialize, but the directional call (cuts in H2 2025) was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
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[18:39] What does the surprise look like in your in your view? surprise looks like u an outright recession. The recession that didn't come in 2022 2023.
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The US did not experience a recession in 2025. Real GDP grew 2.2% for the full year, with strong Q2 (+3.8%) and Q3 (+4.4%) growth, and Q4 slowing to just 0.7% annualized. No NBER recession was declared. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025)