David Rosenberg Predictions
Economist, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research and Associates
Track David Rosenberg's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
- Submit corrections
See quote
[4:12] I'm I'm still I'm still if you're talking long-term 3 to five years, I'm still bullish on gold and the gold mining stocks.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[28:39] I think inflation is going to surprise to the downside. And all the reasons for the Fed to swing hawkish is they're going to pivot the other way.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[36:45] we have no population growth. So the supply side is almost as weak as the demand side is. That's not good news for the Canadian dollar. Uh that's for sure.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:22] I think the Fed will be making the next move a cut and has nothing to do with Kevin Morris having a cow tout at President Trump. That's not going to happen. It's going to be the data. I think people will be surprised where inflation is by year end. And I think they'll be surprised at how weak the US economy is by year end as well.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[24:58] I think the economy is going to be far weaker in the second half of the year. The fiscal fund and games uh underpinning the consumer. uh the stepped up income tax refunds, that's in the review mirror. The stimulus from the World Cup, that's in the review mirror. You're going to find the second half of the year in the United States, there's going to be a spending vacuum.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[37:21] Um that's not my expectation. I I think yields have peaked. I think they will come down. I think they'll come down most at the front end of the yield curve. So it'll steepen cuz I think that those rate hike expectations are going to come out. I think in the US we'll revert back to those two rate cut expectations.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[26:51] the markets are priced for the Bank of Canada still hike interest rates. I think the next move will be to cut, not to hike. Uh at a minimum just stay on hold indefinitely.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[11:31] but now oil prices look set to level off uh potentially go down. They won't go down to pre-war levels, I don't think. Um, but the inflation from energy has been broken.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
Right now, the market thinks we're going to get rate hikes both in Canada and the US. He doesn't. the market is betting that inflation can go higher. We've had many guests say the same. He thinks we're in for a disinflationary environment.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[39:30] I do agree with it and I think I I mean I don't have a big inflation view because I think that we are going to be seeing disinflation uh in the service sector uh which dominates the economy but I think we're going to see inflation in the good sector or the product sector uh more broadly speaking
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[30:07] It's hard to say if it breaks the market rally. It It makes me more bullish on bonds than most other people because I think all the concerns about fiscal policy are going to be redressed. Um because I think the fiscal large is going to be I think we're going to have fiscal inertia.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:45] This gravy train, I think, ends in November with the midterms. And it'll be interesting to see what falls out of that because you're right, the fiscal stimulus, six years, uh, that's coming to an end.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:34] tell me what happens after November if uh one of the two chambers goes Democrat and and they probably both will the the House and now the Senate's up for grabs.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[39:30] Still like gold and the gold miners and I think that we're opening up a very nice uh, um, reopening opportunity um, in gold. I like the hard asset theme.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[39:30] I'm making a bet on the future of commodity inflation. Just looking at those supply demand curves in the future and what is still going to be in a supply deficit going forward. Um, yeah, 100%. Uh, I'm a big fan of Rare Earth's uh, the base metals uh, energy infrastructure.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[0:03] I think that this next bare market and it will happen because cycles have not been repealed. Cycles are part of life. But the next bare market is going to hurt a lot more than the other ones that we witnessed in the past six, seven decades.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[18:26] what we're going to be left with is negative real wage growth which came out of the that that was the main message out of the non-forpe report that came out for May is that once we get the CPI numbers uh for April, we're going to see yet again the second month in a row real wages are contracting and unless the savings rate goes down to zero that's going to lead to negatives in real consumer spending.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:21] I think bonds will be a good place to be. You're not going to make a killing, but I think that uh you'll do fine.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[34:18] the midterms, there's going to be again, we have so many imbalances, divergences, but you know, politics will play a role in mean reverting some of the stuff we're talking about. Uh because the Democrats are probably there's a good chance that they'll have a clean sweep in the midterms and then we'll see what happens in 2028.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[18:16] I think that recession risks are higher than most people priced it. And I think the inflation that people are all freaking out about, including the Fed, is going to hit the wall in the labor market.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[0:20] I think this economy, especially in the second half of the year when a lot of the short-term stimulus falls by the wayside, uh is going to be showing some significant strain.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[5:35] And I'll tell you right now that a recession is probably off the table uh for the next several quarters uh just from all these spending commitments alone.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:43] I'm watching this thing that tends to move glacially, but I'm looking for a reversal in this one particularly important aggregate that is very complex called the personal savings rate.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[39:03] I'm not talking about geopolitical tail risks. I'm not talking about that. I'm telling you probably in four weeks I'll turn extremely bullish on what's going to happen with the world. That's my own personal belief.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
As of May 8, 2026 (four weeks after the prediction), the Iran war has not favorably resolved. While a fragile ceasefire was agreed on April 8 and a one-page MOU is being negotiated, both sides continue to accuse each other of violations, the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, US gasoline costs 50%+ more than pre-war, and no final agreement has been reached. The situation is far from a favorable resolution. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire)
See quote
[1:54] Silver though looks very dangerous to me. Okay. So, I would just say if you've been longing the trade, either take profits or find a way to hedge your position. I do think we are in a secular bull market uh in commodities and in the precious metals complex. So, this is not to say that the bull market is over. It is to say that we are right for a very significant near-term pullback
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[9:24] So, from now till the 2020 elections, I'm probably bullish on gold.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[21:26] emerging market bonds uh are looking local currency because the US dollar is in a bare market and that's going to continue
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[12:15] What I'll tell you is data back to 1948 that in an employment slowdown, when non-farm payrolls get to 0.6% year-over-year, you are in a recession 100% of the time. 11 for 11... you could build the assumption that a recession is probably already starting
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
By the target date, the US was clearly not in a recession: Q1 2026 GDP grew at 2.1% (BEA third estimate), nonfarm payrolls added 172K in May 2026 well above forecasts, and the NBER made no recession declaration. The specific NFP slowdown trigger cited by the predictor did not materialize. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-1st)
See quote
[26:52] you're going to ask me what will knock investors off this view that there's no recession next year is if we start printing negative non-farm payrolls month in month out. And we are at the cutting edge right now
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[32:15] So I think 3.75% is a gimme. I think we're going to blow below that in the next 12 months. I wouldn't be surprised if we get into call it a a three to three and a half% range between now and this point next year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the 10-year Treasury yield would fall to the 3-3.5% range within 12 months, but the period low was only 3.947% (on 2025-10-21), which did not reach the claimed 3-3.5% range.
See quote
[32:34] And I think that you're going to find that the much maligned, ignored, despised treasury market is going to be the one market that is going to be delivering equity-like returns over the next 12 months.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed 'equity-like returns' (typically 8-10%+ annually) over 12 months, but TLT only reached a period high of $89.51 (a ~9.4% gain from $81.84), which could arguably qualify as equity-like, but the final return was only 3.2% by the target date; however, using the period high rule for a rally prediction, the ~9.4% peak gain during the period could be considered equity-like returns, making this prediction correct.
See quote
[38:11] I think we're going down to new cycle lows in the US dollar between now and the end of the year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the US Dollar would fall to 'new cycle lows' by end of year; the period low of $96.22 on 2025-09-17 represents a 4.7% decline from the prediction date price of $101, confirming that new cycle lows were indeed reached during the prediction window.
See quote
[37:21] I think I think let me just add by the way uh the Fed will be scrambling to cut interest rates in the second half of the year
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed did cut interest rates in the second half of 2025, beginning in September 2025 and making three consecutive quarter-point cuts (September, October, December), lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75%. However, the cuts were measured and deliberate, not a 'scramble' — they were debated and even contested within the FOMC, with the December cut passing only 9-3. The prediction's framing of 'scrambling' implies urgency or panic that didn't materialize, but the directional call (cuts in H2 2025) was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
See quote
[18:39] What does the surprise look like in your in your view? surprise looks like u an outright recession. The recession that didn't come in 2022 2023.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The US did not experience a recession in 2025. Real GDP grew 2.2% for the full year, with strong Q2 (+3.8%) and Q3 (+4.4%) growth, and Q4 slowing to just 0.7% annualized. No NBER recession was declared. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025)