AI Stocks Predictions

[21:30] I think this continues to be perhaps the biggest misallocation of uh capital in the history of the world. Right now, the market doesn't care about it broadly speaking... the MAG 7's done well the last few weeks, but prior to that, it did poorly for 5 6 months. It made up that underperformance in a relatively short period of time. And I think we're soon going back to that.

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[15:16] It's almost inconceivable that there won't be a major pullback. Maybe that's not six Maybe that's six months from now. Maybe it's a year. Maybe it's a year and a half, but it will occur. Please be careful.

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[19:44] Yes, it's going to be deflationary, but definitely not in the short term. We still have huge capex. The capital of co the cost of capital with the capex deployment is very high. The demand for skilled labor associated with the deployment of capital and the buildout of infrastructure is demand, you know, is creating a huge demand on that limited talented skill set.

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[19:00] So I I I I believe that we are uh looking at a time of speculate excess that will give way to uh remorse and ironically enough uh the vindication of the u of the optimists who foresaw what will turn out to be a step forward and in u in uh human condition thanks to these inventions.

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[35:50] technology, AI, be very careful where you invest. They've gone up substantially and they are the ones who can be vulnerable to a decline.

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[18:47] all these glamour indust is is I've called it magic in the past. It's amazing what AI is the greatest thing since the industrial revolution. But we had other glamour sectors before 1920s for example anything related to flight airplanes airlines etc. the stock shot up. Okay. So uh it was basically straight line up and then came the crash and then from 1929 to 1932 airline sector went down 87%.

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[26:31] I don't think data center spending is going to continue at the radio ones

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[6:12] you're going to have big capex for 26 and 27 for sure and I think the reason Nvidia is so cheap is that people are like yeah but then it's going roll over um in and 28 and we just we just think this trend is so big. We just think that's very implausible. Um so we think these lines continue to go up.

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[29:25] Absolutely. Um and I think it's already starting to happen... that's going to eventually lead to I believe billion-dollar companies with one person. Um where certain people will be able to build a large product very fast that people want um and be able to kind of fulfill a niche to a million or a billion dollar valuation. So I definitely think it's going to be possible and we'll probably see more of that very soon.

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[34:16] China is going to take the lead in AI and these American companies that they've overinvested in are going to go bust. Not all of them, but many of them. And that's going to crash the markets even more.

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[6:34] I think it's going to be about 670 close to 700 billion from the hyperscalers in 2026 capex. So that's almost like it's approaching 2 and a.5% of GDP.

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[30:50] So there's going to be this giant buildout, $150 trillion dollars worth of buildout spread over however many two or three years.

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[3:44] I do think that the AI tech trade is exhausting itself. I think the bell is ringing here and Oracle is the one that rang the bell not with their last quarter when the stock fell sharply but after the spike in the previous quarter in the stock and that come down that was the bell ringing when it gave back all of those gains

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[0:02] We are going to have a huge huge problem meeting the needs of the expectations that the market has built in these AI stocks. And the moment when people realize it's not happening or certainly close, that's when it will cave.

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[26:52] I think the second half of the year is probably going to be a very good one... the whole game here as many people know um is the AI game right if you are looking to be long things that's the place to be long things that benefit from AI

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