Iran Predictions

[28:04] my call on that front is that that war will come back after the midterms. It's a finely balanced thing. I can change that view if the evidence changes for the moment. I think there's at least a 50 versus other lower percentage outcomes. Therefore, my base >> Iran after the midterms. >> Iran after the midterms. Yeah, absolutely. I don't believe that's in any way done at all. This isn't sorted.

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[33:50] Poly market right now is giving only a less than 20% chance that Iran is going to walk away from theou negotiation. I would give before the end of July. I would say the odds are at least double that, if not triple.

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[10:41] it looks like um you know, America's going to bomb Iran imminently. Absolutely. Could be this weekend, right? Because you've got all the military stuff going through the roof... we're on a knife edge with Iran. I think oil oil non Middle Eastern oil is kicked up... So that might come up in the next week or two. Could be on the weekend.

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[5:48] I believe this is there's no end in sight. There's going to be a false flag event, something that reignites this war.

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[3:23] Whether or not this is going to, you know, uh break break down the the the ceasefire and the MOU, I don't think so. I think that what caused this deal in the first place, David, is that Iran had successfully weaponized the Strait of Hormuz against the United States, had coerced the United States to back down. And so, I don't think that there's really any political will in Washington right now to to re-re-initiate hostilities with Iran.

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[15:58] I would say it's pretty damn unlikely that they have agreed to do what one side are saying they have because the other side in Iran is saying they haven't agreed to it... That still strikes me as less than a 50% probability. So the greater than 50% is that that hasn't been agreed and therefore we haven't actually resolved this complex crisis yet.

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[28:06] Not going to happen, but very very important. Very important because they see them as a defensive shield, but also an offensive weapon uh against others in the region... I don't think there's any chance that Iran is going to say, 'Right, okay, we can give up Hezbollah and just say there you go.'

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[26:54] do you really think we're going to kick off again to in 60 days from Friday, so mid August, given how much closer that would be to the midterm? And I would argue, look, probabilistically, no. But logically, you would then say, well, you know what, we can extend for another 60 days. It's not difficult the way things are at the moment to extend another 60 or another 90 days until you get to the other side of the midterms, at which point then everything can begin again.

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[38:35] my call is he's going to cut a deal within between now and the end of the end of the um end of this month and I think Bent's in there saying look at the credit markets are telling you and now the equity markets are telling you stop yapping on X and cut a deal with Iran.

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[25:55] I I don't think that's in the cards quite frankly because you you've you've got a a spoiler in the mix and that's Israel. Israel doesn't want does not want the thing to be resolved... So So that's why I'm quite skeptical that there'll be any uh reasonable resolution to the to the war that the US and Israel started.

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[24:02] We expect the US Iran deal. So more than a ceasefire, I guess, and a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine. Uh we think that's way more likely than your prediction markets predict. I think right now that prediction is like 6% by the end of the summer. Uh we think it's much much higher.

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[17:22] Spoiler alert. Um there won't be any deal. I promise you there won't be any deal. I wish I wish I could be more optimistic. This is just this is political theater.

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[49:48] some of that production is never going to come back. Now, I don't know what percentage of that production, but I can tell you where it is. And most of that older production that has been underwater flood, as we call it, is in Iraq. Iraq's a big producer, huge producer. All right. So a lot of that Iraqi and and Iran by the way.

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[2:36] I don't expect the market to settle down for at least another two years uh even if we get an agreement next week

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[35:58] My base case is that there will be some sort of a piece within the next two months

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[0:05] If you look at Holly market, it's pricing a 65% chance there will be a permanent peace deal between the US and and and and Iran by the end of May. I mean, to me that's a laughable notion.

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[10:52] we think we've passed the peak uncertainty and the peak sort of um challenges with the conflict. Now, that's not to say things can't get worse... the conflict plan plane is continuing its descent and will land sometime in Q2

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[15:08] I think what's next is a massive air and missile campaign that begins sometime on Monday that is designed to destroy the Iranian state and cause the disintegration of the Iranian society.

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[39:03] I'm not talking about geopolitical tail risks. I'm not talking about that. I'm telling you probably in four weeks I'll turn extremely bullish on what's going to happen with the world. That's my own personal belief.

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[7:41] my base case scenario is that the war goes on for another three or four weeks. President Trump declares victory. He leaves.

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[26:10] I don't think so. And that's only because I I have a pretty rational belief that the war in Iran will end whether it ends in two weeks or whether it ends in a month and a half. Um with the midterms looming in the United States, I believe that eventually we'll see an end to that war.

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[0:36] The Iranians are going to make this an asymmetric war, a long war. That's bad news for us here in the West.

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[29:03] I think the Iranians are going to come out on top of this. The uh I don't think the US or the Israelis really know what they're doing here.

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[10:29] They're not going to crush Iran. Point number one and Iran will in with a high probability continue to control the strait and and that means that functionally it'll it'll be closed.

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[21:33] I think this could be the death nail for sanctions. I think the sanctions regime will start coming off.

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[19:54] I honestly think um the war is going to go on for a very long time and I hope that I'm wrong.

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[4:59] we should expect air strikes either this weekend or very soon afterwards.

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[16:49] perhaps it's a mix of analysis and advocacy, but we think the likely outcome is this sort of peters out in the next week.

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