Iran Predictions
Browse Iran market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
See quote
[2:36] I don't expect the market to settle down for at least another two years uh even if we get an agreement next week
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[35:58] My base case is that there will be some sort of a piece within the next two months
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[0:05] If you look at Holly market, it's pricing a 65% chance there will be a permanent peace deal between the US and and and and Iran by the end of May. I mean, to me that's a laughable notion.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[10:52] we think we've passed the peak uncertainty and the peak sort of um challenges with the conflict. Now, that's not to say things can't get worse... the conflict plan plane is continuing its descent and will land sometime in Q2
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[15:08] I think what's next is a massive air and missile campaign that begins sometime on Monday that is designed to destroy the Iranian state and cause the disintegration of the Iranian society.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
No massive air and missile campaign against Iran began on Monday, April 20, 2026. Instead, the US-Iran ceasefire (in effect since April 7-8) continued, with Trump stating it would end 'Wednesday evening Washington time' and VP Vance traveling to Pakistan for further negotiations. While tensions escalated with a US seizure of an Iranian ship, no new massive bombing campaign was launched that Monday. (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/20/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel)
See quote
[39:03] I'm not talking about geopolitical tail risks. I'm not talking about that. I'm telling you probably in four weeks I'll turn extremely bullish on what's going to happen with the world. That's my own personal belief.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
As of May 8, 2026 (four weeks after the prediction), the Iran war has not favorably resolved. While a fragile ceasefire was agreed on April 8 and a one-page MOU is being negotiated, both sides continue to accuse each other of violations, the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, US gasoline costs 50%+ more than pre-war, and no final agreement has been reached. The situation is far from a favorable resolution. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire)
See quote
[7:41] my base case scenario is that the war goes on for another three or four weeks. President Trump declares victory. He leaves.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
While Trump did declare victory shortly after the prediction (April 7, 2026 ceasefire), the US has not left Iran. As of May 4, 2026, US forces remain heavily engaged with a blockade, Trump announced US Central Command will guide ships through Strait of Hormuz with 15,000 service members, and Trump explicitly said 'we're not leaving right now.' A definitive end to the war is nowhere in sight. (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/03/world/live-news/iran-war-news)
See quote
[26:10] I don't think so. And that's only because I I have a pretty rational belief that the war in Iran will end whether it ends in two weeks or whether it ends in a month and a half. Um with the midterms looming in the United States, I believe that eventually we'll see an end to that war.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[0:36] The Iranians are going to make this an asymmetric war, a long war. That's bad news for us here in the West.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[29:03] I think the Iranians are going to come out on top of this. The uh I don't think the US or the Israelis really know what they're doing here.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[10:29] They're not going to crush Iran. Point number one and Iran will in with a high probability continue to control the strait and and that means that functionally it'll it'll be closed.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[21:33] I think this could be the death nail for sanctions. I think the sanctions regime will start coming off.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:54] I honestly think um the war is going to go on for a very long time and I hope that I'm wrong.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[4:59] we should expect air strikes either this weekend or very soon afterwards.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[16:49] perhaps it's a mix of analysis and advocacy, but we think the likely outcome is this sort of peters out in the next week.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was correct. The Israel-Iran 'Twelve-Day War' (which started June 13, 2025) ended with a ceasefire announced by Trump on June 23 and taking effect June 24, 2025 — right within the predicted one-week window from the June 23 prediction date. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Day_War_ceasefire)