Gareth Soloway Predictions

[12:22] I do, but more so that the S&P P plays catch-up. So, so for instance, I think you might see a little outperformance on Bitcoin. That doesn't mean both are going to go up. What it to me would mean would be that the S&P actually starts to play catch-up um to the downside and maybe Bitcoin doesn't fall percentage-wise quite as much.

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[20:56] I would say that's a very low probability scenario. The reason I say that is that ultimately we have now broken a key ups sloping trend line from the lows of March... these are beginning signals that you may be entering a downtrend period.

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[21:52] I would just caution if you look at midterms, there's usually a sell-off in the summer before the midterms. There's other factors also inclusive of the overbought semis that probably bring this market back in a little bit.

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[17:56] I think the first day on Friday when it become it's it could literally you could see your screen freezing up. it's probably going to be that crazy of people trying to rush in and buy it. Um, once the dust settles, I think it will fade. I still think it's going to be up well above the 135 IPO price because the institutions have to make sure they're bringing this company public. It has to be a success. But I wonder at at the after the first day, after that initial big pop, does it start to fade like Facebook did back in the day?

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[25:01] I still think gold is going lower and my price target still remains by year end early 2027 at 3500 give or take. So again, I still think there's another $600 downside in gold before it becomes a major buyable level.

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[26:41] I even think silver is probably headed to $50 an ounce or lower.

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[29:23] I do think that eventually the economy is going to slow down and that will bring in rates... I do think that shorter term the economy or the stock market coming in could bring yields back in a little bit.

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[30:13] I expect a very measured I mean, this is going to be how Kevin Worsh is remembered going forward. His first press conference. He's going to be very measured, very calming, and he's probably going to walk the line of saying, 'Hey, listen. We're not going to cut rates, but we're here if the economy weakens to cut rates, and we're also going to make sure we monitor inflation.' So, I think it's going to be a very like right down the middle description. Um, but I don't expect a rate hike or cut.

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[2:08] I'm still overall short-term bearish. I still think we're heading down sub4,000, maybe even as low as 3500. But I certainly am going to be a buyer when it gets below that 4,000 marker.

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[8:57] I also have this longer term major support level going back basically to 2023 that I do think palladium will come down to and that's just below 1250.

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[11:47] in general, I'm leaning towards 2029 to 2030. And the reason I say that is more so with the hundredyear cycle uh from the Great Depression. And I think things are going to get really bad.

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[15:31] I think honestly in the near term, yields probably are going to start to come back in. I don't think the government's going to let things get too far out of control without the Fed trying to intervene.

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[32:38] I bet we come down to the low end of this parallel, David, and we're all the way back to 350. That would be a $200ish drop on Micron back to the low end of that parallel. I do think by year end we're back down there.

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[35:15] I do honestly think we're probably headed back to about 50,000. That's my next target. 50,000 on Bitcoin.

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[11:15] once you get that down you still have the issue of what's going on even prior to those oil price spikes and that's where I think you get this longer term high-end inflation probably between three and 4%.

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[1:32] And based on longerterm charting, it's still telling me that gold is going to eventually break this 44 to 4,300 level and trade down to 3900, which you can see is a pivot low here. Eventually, I'm still looking at a retest of this major former level here going back to basically every hit from April of 2025 all the way to August of 2025 before we broke out. We should go back and test that level.

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[6:13] still that same impact of looking at this major level of 49 to 54 that is where I expect this to come down to and likely it'll coincide with the gold level as well.

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[6:49] I do think that oil number comes down significantly within a week or two. I do think there will be a resolution here.

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[7:51] And that means that rate cuts will occur um later this year even though the market is not pricing them in at that this point.

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[12:04] I am bullish now on Bitcoin as we've gotten some signals here. I'm looking for a move up to potentially 80,000 maybe 85,000

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[15:24] Logic dictates we probably are coming back to that $5700 target, which would be the low end of the parallel. And I would argue that that's a year-end or early 2027 target

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[4:39] I would expect gold to trade back to let's say potentially 46 to 4700.

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[6:46] I think we're still on pace for $10,000 gold. It just may be a couple years away.

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[11:05] I think there's a swing trade here for upside B on GDX back into the 94 range.

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[20:43] My guess is we'll see somewhere in that $3,500 range, but it will be very short-lived. And so, you know, the idea is is that the wash out of the weak hands... My guess is 3500ish give or take. It won't last very long and we will be back towards 5,000 within 3 to 6 months.

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[22:49] the dollar is likely going to weaken further here. And this is just in that bigger ddollarization scenario which will take years to play out, right? But slowly the dollar likely goes lower. And I'm I'm a bear on the dollar.

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[3:43] I would expect a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel.

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[6:12] And again, I'm looking at a downside move by mid year back to about 6,100 on the S&P. That would be our first major technical support.

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[7:10] my guess is is even though we'll have plenty of bounces eventually we do find our way all the way down to 5600 or so on the S&P

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[8:30] We could be in a year or two, even if the economy slides into recession. Oil could be $100 per barrel. That would not shock me one bit.

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[10:53] I'm unbelievably bullish on Bitcoin here... you look at a scenario where we could be seeing a big relief rally all the way up to 80 to 85,000.

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[12:15] I actually still think Bitcoin is going to eventually go lower... probably sub 50,000 down the line.

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[22:30] It broke above this 5100 little resistance here. It has upside to about 5,400... you're probably headed to about 5400 in the next days or week or so.

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[7:57] when we do correct, this 4,300 likely becomes your next base point, right? That's where you're going to hold on to the major gains most likely

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[14:02] I still think it's going to 10,000. The question is in what year?

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[25:54] this to me is like likely going to be a continued big rally here to the upside. But great breakout on oil. I'm a big bull on oil

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[3:25] I'm in the camp that the stock market has topped for at least a 10% 15% correction.

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[9:06] based on this chart, we should be due for a sizable correction in the semiconductor trade.

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[21:36] But the level you're looking for Bitcoin, and this is where I will add quite a bit of my exposure here, is what we're going to do is we're going to look at, let me see here, right in here. There's a big area of support around 70 to 3 to 75,000 right here.

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[30:13] 5K next year to me is a no-brainer. 5K next year is a no-brainer.

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[29:17] And that tells me that we could come back as low as 36 to 3500 before the next bull move.

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[0:03] For a major recession. Like, we're going to I think this what I think what's coming is going to be far worse than 089. When this happens, whether it's in a year or two or whenever once the Margo round stops and the music stops, this is going to be far worse, folks. This is going to be the worst thing since the drops in 2000 and probably even going back closing in on 1929.

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[29:06] You give if you give me a shot at 3500 on gold, I'm buying it right there. That's a great opportunity.

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[35:01] And I'm looking for the low 3% by early 2026.

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[6:26] I would expect inflation to continue to creep higher, not just because of Trump's tariffs. There's other factors here. We talked about the deportations having an impact as well. But also, I would just point out is that one of the biggest drivers about a year ago of inflation was the stock market. And the stock market was at all-time highs. We had the big correction in March into April. We're now back at all-time highs. So, the wealth effect, people are feeling that again. They're feeling well. they look at their 401ks up 25% since April. That's a huge move that makes people want to go out and spend u on goods for instance new TVs etc. And so I think that that can also play a role here. So I think a combination of all those things that I mentioned you will see inflation continue to hold up. Again I don't expect a massive spike unless new high tariffs of 30% go into play. But is it going to stay stubbornly around 3% inflation? I actually do think so.

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[35:36] Upside target. I'll give you guys my upside target. See this last major low right here, kind of right in this same level. So, I'd be looking for the dollar to get back to about 100 on the DXY. And then once we get in there, that'll be the first test of major resistance. But I think right now we're probably going back to 100 on the DXY.

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[36:17] I'm gonna say 4,000. I do think we'll pull back close to 3,000, but if I have to say by year end, I think gold is closer to 4,000. I think instability, I think, again, eventually the economy will continue to weaken slowly, but it'll weaken. Um, and I think that pushes more people into gold.

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[36:45] 90. I think 90. And I think that's solely on that I love Bitcoin longer term and do think it's going to 150. But I do think also it if we get in a heavy selloff in the markets, which looks like we're close to, then I would be looking for a risk off in Bitcoin near-term and a pull back into the '9s, maybe even that 87 80 88 level we were just talking about on the chart.

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[37:16] 5800. Yeah, definitely based on what I'm seeing in the charts. Um, doesn't mean we can't get close to 7,000, but we'd have to fight through a lot of these big resistance levels at this point. And right now, again, it looks like the markets ignoring some of this good news with Nvidia.

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[12:22] I still think that at some point the bottom is going to fall out of this market and we will see a major drop... this market goes down 10, 20, 30%.

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[26:04] strong bullish bias here with upside easily to four, maybe $5,000 over the next year or two.

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[29:16] This go I could easily see, you know, palladium and platinum north of 1500 in the not too distant future.

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[29:16] This go I could easily see, you know, palladium and platinum north of 1500 in the not too distant future.

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[30:37] I would be a buyer of bonds, meaning I think yields are going to go lower... this is resistance, and it's going to reject price and price is going to fall. And in this case, it's the 10-year yield.

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[16:46] I think right now they're pricing in two rate cuts the remainder of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if we have three by year end

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[9:15] could I make a quick 10% on a, you know, 3 to five trading day hold? I think so on something like Amazon.

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[11:54] If off of this high we came back to this line in theory, where's the NASDAQ going? Probably down here.

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[13:55] recession is the most likely answer here later this year.

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[21:09] eventually, this is my target on the 10-year yield. That's at 3.47, 3.45% on the 10 years.

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[22:02] This here, this 70 to 74,000 range, which was the previous highs. This is the major technical support I expect to be tagged on Bitcoin probably over the next couple weeks, if not sooner.

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