Gareth Soloway Predictions
President of Verified Investing
Track Gareth Soloway's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[2:08] I'm still overall short-term bearish. I still think we're heading down sub4,000, maybe even as low as 3500. But I certainly am going to be a buyer when it gets below that 4,000 marker.
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[8:57] I also have this longer term major support level going back basically to 2023 that I do think palladium will come down to and that's just below 1250.
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[11:47] in general, I'm leaning towards 2029 to 2030. And the reason I say that is more so with the hundredyear cycle uh from the Great Depression. And I think things are going to get really bad.
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[15:31] I think honestly in the near term, yields probably are going to start to come back in. I don't think the government's going to let things get too far out of control without the Fed trying to intervene.
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[32:38] I bet we come down to the low end of this parallel, David, and we're all the way back to 350. That would be a $200ish drop on Micron back to the low end of that parallel. I do think by year end we're back down there.
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[35:15] I do honestly think we're probably headed back to about 50,000. That's my next target. 50,000 on Bitcoin.
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[11:15] once you get that down you still have the issue of what's going on even prior to those oil price spikes and that's where I think you get this longer term high-end inflation probably between three and 4%.
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[1:32] And based on longerterm charting, it's still telling me that gold is going to eventually break this 44 to 4,300 level and trade down to 3900, which you can see is a pivot low here. Eventually, I'm still looking at a retest of this major former level here going back to basically every hit from April of 2025 all the way to August of 2025 before we broke out. We should go back and test that level.
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[6:13] still that same impact of looking at this major level of 49 to 54 that is where I expect this to come down to and likely it'll coincide with the gold level as well.
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[6:49] I do think that oil number comes down significantly within a week or two. I do think there will be a resolution here.
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The prediction claimed oil would come down 'significantly' within a week or two; the period low of $86.96 on 2026-04-14 represents a 14.2% decline from the $101.38 prediction date price, which clearly qualifies as a significant drop and meets the bearish prediction within the specified timeframe.
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[7:51] And that means that rate cuts will occur um later this year even though the market is not pricing them in at that this point.
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[12:04] I am bullish now on Bitcoin as we've gotten some signals here. I'm looking for a move up to potentially 80,000 maybe 85,000
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The prediction called for Bitcoin to move up to $80,000-$85,000, and the period high reached $82,792.21 on trading day 36, which falls within the $80,000-$85,000 target range, confirming the prediction was correct.
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[15:24] Logic dictates we probably are coming back to that $5700 target, which would be the low end of the parallel. And I would argue that that's a year-end or early 2027 target
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[4:39] I would expect gold to trade back to let's say potentially 46 to 4700.
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The prediction claimed gold would trade back to $4,600-$4,700, and the period high reached $4,879.7 on trading day 18, which exceeds the $4,700 upper bound of the predicted range, confirming the target was met during the window.
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[6:46] I think we're still on pace for $10,000 gold. It just may be a couple years away.
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[11:05] I think there's a swing trade here for upside B on GDX back into the 94 range.
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The prediction claimed GDX would bounce back to $94, and the period high reached $102.39 on trading day 18, which exceeds the $94 target, confirming the prediction was correct.
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[20:43] My guess is we'll see somewhere in that $3,500 range, but it will be very short-lived. And so, you know, the idea is is that the wash out of the weak hands... My guess is 3500ish give or take. It won't last very long and we will be back towards 5,000 within 3 to 6 months.
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[22:49] the dollar is likely going to weaken further here. And this is just in that bigger ddollarization scenario which will take years to play out, right? But slowly the dollar likely goes lower. And I'm I'm a bear on the dollar.
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[3:43] I would expect a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel.
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[6:12] And again, I'm looking at a downside move by mid year back to about 6,100 on the S&P. That would be our first major technical support.
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The period low of $6,316.91 on 2026-03-30 did not reach the predicted 6,100 level (which would require a decline from $6,837.75 to at or below 6,100), falling short of the target by approximately $216.
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[7:10] my guess is is even though we'll have plenty of bounces eventually we do find our way all the way down to 5600 or so on the S&P
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[8:30] We could be in a year or two, even if the economy slides into recession. Oil could be $100 per barrel. That would not shock me one bit.
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The prediction claimed oil could reach $100 per barrel within one to two years; the period high of $119.48 on 2026-03-09 exceeded the $100 target, so the prediction was correct.
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[10:53] I'm unbelievably bullish on Bitcoin here... you look at a scenario where we could be seeing a big relief rally all the way up to 80 to 85,000.
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The prediction claimed a rally to 80,000-85,000, but the period high reached only $75,988.4 on 2026-03-17, which falls short of the $80,000 minimum target by approximately $4,011.60 (5.3% below target).
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[12:15] I actually still think Bitcoin is going to eventually go lower... probably sub 50,000 down the line.
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[22:30] It broke above this 5100 little resistance here. It has upside to about 5,400... you're probably headed to about 5400 in the next days or week or so.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would reach about $5,400 in the next days or week, and the period high of $5,405 on the target date (2026-03-02) met and exceeded this specific price target, confirming the prediction was correct.
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[7:57] when we do correct, this 4,300 likely becomes your next base point, right? That's where you're going to hold on to the major gains most likely
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[14:02] I still think it's going to 10,000. The question is in what year?
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[25:54] this to me is like likely going to be a continued big rally here to the upside. But great breakout on oil. I'm a big bull on oil
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The prediction claimed oil would 'continue to rally significantly to the upside' following a bullish breakout, and the period high of $119.48 represents an 88.9% gain from the prediction date price of $63.21, far exceeding any reasonable interpretation of 'significant' upside rally.
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[3:25] I'm in the camp that the stock market has topped for at least a 10% 15% correction.
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The prediction claimed a 10-15% correction would occur, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.2% decline from the prediction date price of $6672.41, falling significantly short of the 10% minimum threshold required for the prediction to be correct.
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[9:06] based on this chart, we should be due for a sizable correction in the semiconductor trade.
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The prediction claimed a 'sizable correction' (bearish), but the period low of $314.07 represents only a 7.4% decline from the prediction date price of $339.24, which is modest rather than sizable, and the price ultimately rose 20.1% by the target date, contradicting the bearish thesis.
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[21:36] But the level you're looking for Bitcoin, and this is where I will add quite a bit of my exposure here, is what we're going to do is we're going to look at, let me see here, right in here. There's a big area of support around 70 to 3 to 75,000 right here.
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The prediction claimed $70-75k would be major support; the period low was $60,074, which broke below the claimed support level, invalidating the prediction.
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[30:13] 5K next year to me is a no-brainer. 5K next year is a no-brainer.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would reach $5,000 by end of 2026, and the period high reached $5,586.2 on 2026-01-29, which exceeds the $5,000 target, making this prediction correct.
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[29:17] And that tells me that we could come back as low as 36 to 3500 before the next bull move.
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The prediction claimed gold could decline to $2,360-$3,500, but the period low was $4,019.4 (on the prediction date itself), meaning gold never came close to the $3,500 target and instead rose to a high of $5,586.2.
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[0:03] For a major recession. Like, we're going to I think this what I think what's coming is going to be far worse than 089. When this happens, whether it's in a year or two or whenever once the Margo round stops and the music stops, this is going to be far worse, folks. This is going to be the worst thing since the drops in 2000 and probably even going back closing in on 1929.
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[29:06] You give if you give me a shot at 3500 on gold, I'm buying it right there. That's a great opportunity.
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The prediction claimed gold would pull back to $3,500, but the period low during the 55 trading days was $3,913.7 on 2025-10-30, which fell short of the $3,500 target by $413.7, so the specific price target was never reached.
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[35:01] And I'm looking for the low 3% by early 2026.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the 10-year Treasury yield would decline to 'low 3%' levels (below 3.0%) by early 2026, but the period low was $3.95 on 2025-10-21, which is still in the high 3% range and never reached the low 3% target claimed.
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[6:26] I would expect inflation to continue to creep higher, not just because of Trump's tariffs. There's other factors here. We talked about the deportations having an impact as well. But also, I would just point out is that one of the biggest drivers about a year ago of inflation was the stock market. And the stock market was at all-time highs. We had the big correction in March into April. We're now back at all-time highs. So, the wealth effect, people are feeling that again. They're feeling well. they look at their 401ks up 25% since April. That's a huge move that makes people want to go out and spend u on goods for instance new TVs etc. And so I think that that can also play a role here. So I think a combination of all those things that I mentioned you will see inflation continue to hold up. Again I don't expect a massive spike unless new high tariffs of 30% go into play. But is it going to stay stubbornly around 3% inflation? I actually do think so.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
December 2025 CPI came in at 2.7% year-over-year, below the ~3% threshold the predictor specified. Inflation stayed below 3% throughout 2025, ranging from a high of 3.0% in September down to 2.7% by November and December, not 'stubbornly around 3%'. (https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-price-index-2025-in-review.htm)
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[35:36] Upside target. I'll give you guys my upside target. See this last major low right here, kind of right in this same level. So, I'd be looking for the dollar to get back to about 100 on the DXY. And then once we get in there, that'll be the first test of major resistance. But I think right now we're probably going back to 100 on the DXY.
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The prediction claimed the dollar would reach 100 on the DXY, and the period high during the target window reached $100.4 on 2025-11-21, which exceeds the $100 target, making this prediction correct.
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[36:17] I'm gonna say 4,000. I do think we'll pull back close to 3,000, but if I have to say by year end, I think gold is closer to 4,000. I think instability, I think, again, eventually the economy will continue to weaken slowly, but it'll weaken. Um, and I think that pushes more people into gold.
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The prediction claimed gold would reach $4,000 by year end; the period high was $4,556.3 on 2025-12-26, which exceeds the $4,000 target, and the price on the target date (2025-12-31) closed at $4,325.6, also exceeding $4,000, so the prediction was correct.
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[36:45] 90. I think 90. And I think that's solely on that I love Bitcoin longer term and do think it's going to 150. But I do think also it if we get in a heavy selloff in the markets, which looks like we're close to, then I would be looking for a risk off in Bitcoin near-term and a pull back into the '9s, maybe even that 87 80 88 level we were just talking about on the chart.
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin would drop to $90,000 by end of year; the period low of $80,659.81 on 2025-11-21 falls below the $90,000 target, confirming the prediction was met during the prediction window.
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[37:16] 5800. Yeah, definitely based on what I'm seeing in the charts. Um, doesn't mean we can't get close to 7,000, but we'd have to fight through a lot of these big resistance levels at this point. And right now, again, it looks like the markets ignoring some of this good news with Nvidia.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would drop to 5,800 by end of year, representing a 7.1% decline from the prediction date price of $6,243.76. The period low was $6,201.59 (0.68% decline), which did not reach the target of 5,800 or approach the claimed magnitude of decline, so the prediction is wrong.
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[12:22] I still think that at some point the bottom is going to fall out of this market and we will see a major drop... this market goes down 10, 20, 30%.
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The prediction claimed a 10-30% drop would occur, but the period low of $5943.23 on 2025-06-23 represents only a 1.6% decline from the prediction date price of $6038.81, which falls well short of the claimed 10% minimum threshold.
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[26:04] strong bullish bias here with upside easily to four, maybe $5,000 over the next year or two.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Graded early 2026-03-22. GC=F rose from $3,320.90 (2025-06-10) to $4,382.40, up 32%, hitting the $4,000-5,000 target range well ahead of the 2027-06-10 deadline.
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[29:16] This go I could easily see, you know, palladium and platinum north of 1500 in the not too distant future.
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The prediction claimed palladium would go 'north of 1500' and the period high reached $1984.7 on 2025-12-26, which exceeds the $1500 target by a significant margin, confirming the prediction was correct.
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[29:16] This go I could easily see, you know, palladium and platinum north of 1500 in the not too distant future.
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The prediction claimed platinum would go above $1,500 in the not too distant future, and the period high of $2,467.7 on 2025-12-26 far exceeded this target, representing a 103.8% gain from the prediction date price of $1,209.8.
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[30:37] I would be a buyer of bonds, meaning I think yields are going to go lower... this is resistance, and it's going to reject price and price is going to fall. And in this case, it's the 10-year yield.
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The prediction claimed 10-year Treasury yields would go lower, and the period low of $3.95 on 2025-10-21 represents an 11.6% decline from the prediction date price of $4.47, confirming yields did fall significantly during the prediction window.
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[16:46] I think right now they're pricing in two rate cuts the remainder of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if we have three by year end
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 — in September, October/November, and December 10, 2025 — ending the year with the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, exactly matching the prediction of three cuts by year end. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
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[9:15] could I make a quick 10% on a, you know, 3 to five trading day hold? I think so on something like Amazon.
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The prediction claimed a 10% gain was possible over 3-5 trading days, and while the stock reached a high of $192.65 (7.95% above the prediction price of $178.41) during the period, this fell short of the claimed 10% magnitude.
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[11:54] If off of this high we came back to this line in theory, where's the NASDAQ going? Probably down here.
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[13:55] recession is the most likely answer here later this year.
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[21:09] eventually, this is my target on the 10-year yield. That's at 3.47, 3.45% on the 10 years.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the 10-year Treasury yield would reach 3.45-3.47%, but the period low was 3.89% and the period high was 4.63%, meaning the yield never came close to the target range of 3.45-3.47% during the prediction window.
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[22:02] This here, this 70 to 74,000 range, which was the previous highs. This is the major technical support I expect to be tagged on Bitcoin probably over the next couple weeks, if not sooner.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed Bitcoin would drop to the $70,000-74,000 range, and the period low reached $74,436.68 on April 7th, which falls within the predicted range, confirming the specific price target was met during the timeframe.