Ron Butler Predictions
Principal Mortgage Broker
Track Ron Butler's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[4:37] Sure. Uh I think that there are so many different factors. So we could list them off over a long haul but there are a lot of different factors that that just don't support any softening of the rate position. I mean there just there's nothing you could point at that say yes this will definitely move rates down.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[27:20] There is no question that pressure on home prices will continue throughout Ontario and British Columbia through the whole of this year and into next year and that the best outcome in 27 would be it just stops falling and stays flat. Uh the idea of an immediate rebound is not sensible to me. I I I just don't see it.
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[28:09] this is the the idea that there's going to be a rebound in home prices in Ontario in 2026, I think, is a a it's a significant error.
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[26:23] I I I told everybody that there'd be more units sold this year than last year. I told everybody that in January or February uh because we're going to go from 32-year lows, 32year lows in sales in 2025 to 15 or 12 year lows in sales in 2026. But for the real estate industry to suggest that that's some kind of buoyancy or some kind of uh happy days are here again is absolutely crazy.
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[29:04] We will see continued foreclosures and power sales in residential real estate in Ontario and British Columbia. They will continue. They will grow throughout this year.
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[34:34] No chance of a change. No, no chance of a change for the rest of this year unless inflation really really takes off in Canada. like there there is no there's no chance
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[19:43] There is no question that even if they buy all 2200 of these units in the next 3 weeks that there will be no new condo projects started in Vancouver this year or next year or likely the year after.
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[4:11] I believe we will see some slowdown in purchase activity again. It's a big big country. There's all kinds of different markets, but I would suggest on average we will see a slowdown in in new home purchase.
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[22:02] condos and town homes obviously because that's that's rental stock. You don't see too many single family rentals. That's a much lower percentage of single family are rented. So they are the most impacted. Condos absolutely like it's just it's it's it's a horror show out there. Uh but we have to anticipate that there's going to be some there could be some price improvement eventually. not now, not this year, maybe not even next year
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[26:10] I don't think so. And that's only because I I have a pretty rational belief that the war in Iran will end whether it ends in two weeks or whether it ends in a month and a half. Um with the midterms looming in the United States, I believe that eventually we'll see an end to that war.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[25:22] But I am absolutely certain that by 2028 we will see a return to reduced immigration numbers something like 325 to 375,000.
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[27:21] Well, right now the math favors renters. I mean, rents are falling. They'll continue to fall. They'll continue to fall all this year. They'll probably continue to fall into next year.
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[1:48] that will push mortgage rates back over 7%.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The 'Big Beautiful Bill' was signed into law on July 4, 2025, but mortgage rates did not rise above 7% as predicted. For much of 2025 rates hovered near 6.6%, and by late December 2025 the 30-year fixed rate had fallen to approximately 6.15%, well below the predicted 7% threshold. (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mortgage-rates-loan-lowest-in-2025/)
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[12:54] I've talked to law firms that believe, firmly believe a 200 person law firm will soon, and I'm talking 18 months, be a 110 or even a 90 person law firm. They just won't need the people in the seats.
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[15:42] we suspect there'll be a almost catastrophic crash in construction jobs uh by the end of this year and continue into the first uh two quarters of next year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Data shows only a 0.4% decline in Canadian construction employment between January 2025 and January 2026, far from 'catastrophic.' Industry outlooks for Q1-Q2 2026 remain generally optimistic, with ~1.65 million actively employed and strong civil/infrastructure demand, directly contradicting the prediction. (https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/labour/2026/02/navigating-workforce-challenges-facing-the-canadian-construction-industry)
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[16:03] we're starting to talk about a housing building disaster that's going to be about the same as 1990.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Canada's national housing starts rose 6% in 2025 to ~259,000 units (CMHC), far above the ~170,000-level 1990 historic low. While condo segments weakened, record rental construction drove overall gains, making the '1990 disaster' comparison clearly inaccurate. (https://storeys.com/spring-2026-supply-report-cmhc/)
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[26:02] there's going to be a a bloodbath of losses that are going to be incurred by the people who signed those contracts and there's about 45,000 50,000 of those contracts out there in just in the GTA.
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[32:35] There could absolutely be a kind of a rally in low-rise prices, single family townhouse prices uh in 2028 29.
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