Private Credit Predictions
Browse Private Credit market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[38:15] investors are saying yes, but in a year or 18 months, will you be able to say that? And the answer we think as investors is no, you can't. The massive disruption is coming.
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[39:03] So since it is a technological disruption, I'm going to argue no, I don't think it's going to be a systemic problem.
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[35:44] That's the epicenter of the credit bubble. the private credit market...Now it's $2 trillion dollars in private credit. The entire subprime mortgage market was 1.3 trillion. So we're way ahead of it. I mean that alone is enough to to to start to crater banks and crater the re the um the money markets to freeze the repo market to to fracture. That's where it's going to happen.
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[36:53] stay tuned. I think if we had this interview in six months from now, I think we'd have a totally different conversation. We don't have to wait that long. And we still have to see like, you know, what the June redemptions are going to look like with some of these credit funds.
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[9:06] I think we're going to see more large write downs. I think we're we're not going to see a cessation in high redemption requests from these funds.
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[10:07] But for now what lies ahead of us I think is the culmination of a cycle rather than anything resembling a new beginning of a cycle... this is a cycle I think like most others and it will end as most others do and a um uh gale of fear and of contrition and of uh and of liquidation
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[17:00] and everybody wants to wish away this private credit thing, but it doesn't appear to be going anywhere... what we publish almost every day is that as a factor of time, the policy error just keeps growing.
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[23:07] private credit is a total unmitigated disaster and it's going to get worse
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[38:20] you're going to see some pretty wild redemption requests come June of 2026.
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[0:00] You don't need to be a statistician or an actuary or, you know, a CFA level three to know that the front page of the Wall Street Journal is now every day showing another private credit fund under stress. And so, you know, I think we're on the doorstep of of a credit event.
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[18:03] wealthy individuals in the US in other words have about 2% of their assets in private credit and private equity and people are really projecting that to grow to maybe 10%
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