Collin Kettell Predictions
Founder and CEO, Palisades Goldcorp Ltd.
Track Collin Kettell's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[7:33] We're big believers in the junior space. We think we're hitting a secular bull market and we wanted to figure out what's the way that we can capture the most money for our shareholders and this is what we came up with.
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[23:13] And then the final question I had is if TSX Venture Index simply goes back to where it was in 2011 at 2500. And it was at 3500 in 2007. But if it simply goes back to 2011, what increase should I expect in my junior gold stocks? Because remember the TSX Venture Index is 60% juniors, but it's also got 40% other stuff that tend to be bigger companies or non-mining companies. And so I was looking what kind of beta does Claude think I should apply to the move? And so it estimates anywhere from 1 and 1/2 X on a conservative basis to 2 and 1/2 X in a bull case. And therefore it gave a multiplier from anywhere from 3.6X to 5 and 1/2X if the TSX Venture simply goes back to where it was in 2011. So I don't think it's too far out to assume that it's possible that you could get a 5X return if we get a bull market, which it does seem starting to materialize.
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[22:41] And so then I said, 'Run another model and assume that half of the warrants we have be just remain out of the money, that they'd never hit anything, those companies somehow, uh you know, never have their time in the sun during a bull market, and then show me what the numbers would be.' And so you can see we've highlighted on the left side here, but in the 5X case it's a billion and 10X case, it's it's 2 and 1/2 billion.
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[27:57] We're going to have to decide on individual sets of warrants if we're going to exercise and sell immediately or for other positions if we're going to exercise and hold. We have the benefit with how much equity we have in our portfolio that the capital is already there to exercise and hold a majority of those positions.
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[31:57] We have good reason to think that this this one is not going to fizzle.
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[32:42] We don't expect to have a tax bill this year. Maybe not one next year.
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