Chris Vermeulen Predictions
Chief Market Strategist
Track Chris Vermeulen's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[5:06] gold is rallying up into resistance. It's had a very nice move this week, but it was based on news. And that is that always scares me when you have a strong bounce and everybody becomes very bullish and excited. We're seeing people pile into gold miners like like it's going out of style. Everybody's jumping into the leverage plays around here thinking things have turned around and maybe they have, but right now to me gold is is if it has put in a bottom, it still has more work to do.
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[10:56] It's a series of bare flags. A drop, a pause, a drop, a pause, a drop. This is another pause. It's just another rally within a downtrend.
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[27:44] I'm waiting to see what happens after tomorrow, after the 21st, if that 3-day typical kind of emotional stampede into an asset class runs out of steam and we start to see it roll over next week or if it's going to hold its ground and and push up.
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The prediction claimed gold would 'roll over' (decline) the week after August 21, but instead gold rose from $4516.3 to a period high of $4670.9 on August 24 and closed at $4627.6 on the target date, a 2.5% gain with no significant rollover occurring.
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[16:55] this monthly chart, you know, is is pointing to an 8% move. That's what is showing. and it's starting to break out of this huge pattern. Now, obviously, if it goes there, everything blows up.
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[19:04] if I was a bond trader, like especially like trading bonds themselves, like TLT, I I think we're going to continue to see see them weaken. I think bonds are going to be struggling. I think rates are going to keep creeping up.
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[20:50] just based on the most recent over the last month price action, it is pointing to roughly like 8,100 8,200 for the S&P 500, which is a a pretty decent move from where we are. That's about a 6% move.
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[21:19] it shows where this big pattern is actually pointing to. So, it is saying we get to about 8,500, which from where we are right now, that's about a a 10 or so percent move. And that's a really nice looking chart pattern. This is a big move up. It's consolidated in a very healthy manner. Now it's breaking out.
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[21:44] the NASDAQ is is similar, not quite the same, but it does have a large bull flag, and it is pointing to about an 18 20% move to the upside still.
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[19:20] I think eventually we're going to see the AI bubble, you know, this surge come to an end. High interest rates is not good for all this borrowing, all of this stuff uh for the data centers.
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[0:08] I think we're going to have one more push here and that's going to create that feeding frenzy where everybody's like okay forget it. AI is here to stay. Let's get in. Let's keep making money and uh that could be almost a 20% move in the NASDAQ which could be 30 40 50% in the semiconductors
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[10:27] If we look at this recent rally and this pullback using Fibonacci extensions, this tells us the upside move is about 8500 in the S&P 500. So, we're looking at potentially the second leg. It's about a 10% move uh in in that space.
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[27:02] the chart and the Fibonacci extensions are pointing to about $100 per barrel for oil. Uh do I think this war is over? No. I think uh it's going to continue to go for a long time. And I think eventually we're just going to see oil continue to go back up and and carry these higher levels.
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[28:05] there's there's no doubt the chart of of the 5year yield the 10year the 30-year they're all pointing to higher pricing and and you and I have talked about this for many many months. I'm like the chart is the charts are actually pointing to for the for the 10 year and the 30-year 8%.
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[32:48] I do believe actually gold could drift up to about 4500 and 4,500 to me is kind of this this overall range kind of like right in in this range which are previous highs, big consolidation, a big high volume spike low, another low. There's a lot of price action that pivoted through here. So, we could still see gold push up, which is going to suck more and more people into the precious metal space, but at that point is actually still a bare market trap
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[10:20] the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have these beautiful bull flag patterns and it is pointing to much higher pricing. Right? If we look at this recent rally and this pullback using Fibonacci extensions, this tells us the upside move is about 8500 in the S&P 500. So, we're looking at potentially the second leg. It's about a 10% move uh in in that space. And the NASDAQ has potential has the same chart pattern pretty much. It's got about an 18% upside move.
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[15:14] I do feel like this this last move may be that that one that goes really really vertical. It could be a very strong move that happens in the next 1 to two months hits those targets and and then we could probably start to see the market become very very volatile.
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[4:03] I think we could see the dollar continue to trade sideways for a while. I don't see the dollar rallying right away... the dollar is going to trade sideways until maybe the stock market starts to stall out and then we'll probably see the dollar start to pick up speed and break out again while the equities market rolls over. So the dollar here is at support. I think it's going to hold its ground over the next uh month or two.
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[7:26] small caps are on the verge of hitting some all-time highs and so is the micro caps. Micro caps, they're not quite up near the highs, but there's big moves in micro caps telling us people want to put risk on.
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[11:06] this bounce in the market in the precious metal space really is just at this point is just a bounce within a downtrend... we can't quite quite trust it yet... based on that, you know, just looking at this chart pattern, we could say, okay, well, just based on this chart pattern, you know, here's where this tiny little moving average crossover could carry you, which is about to 8050, which again, it's not that much upside from where we are.
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[13:43] the long-term trend is down. All the other moving averages are down. You know, we've seen a drop, a bounce, a drop. This is kind of a bearish formation. Maybe we see gold, as I mentioned, the dollar may just trade sideways for a while. The stock market rallies. We might see gold and silver and miners, you know, work themselves higher, but I still think it is a pause at that point, you know, before it potentially starts to sell off in a bigger way.
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[15:32] I do think we're going to see most likely silver uh miners and gold potentially move higher while the stock market rallies over the next few weeks or or couple of months. But you know it's it's going to be what happens after that like how how is this price action going to unfold.
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[3:25] it is still pointing to a little bit of a precipitous fall here. This is This is a high momentum move, and based on this chart, it is showing that we could see gold slip 38 3600. It might happen very quick... This chart is pointing to like in the next week or two, we could see gold slip right to 3600.
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The prediction claimed gold would slip to $3,600 within 1-2 weeks. The period low was $3,985.9 on 2026-07-13, which is still $385.9 above the $3,600 target — the price never came close to reaching $3,600.
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[10:23] it is pointing to about $40 per ounce. And And that's why I'm excited cuz I love silver in that way cuz it is extremely volatile... I love it if we can get silver down to these levels. It'll be like back the truck up because it'll be a very short-lived window. It may only tag 40 for minutes or maybe even hours and rebound, right? That's what this chart is kind of pointing to. It's going to be a a couple big red bars, and then it's probably going to bounce right back up into the 60 range.
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[12:22] Based on that, we should see it come to the 618, and if it finds support and bounces, we should see it drop to the 100% measured move, which if we look at that, is about $45,000 for Bitcoin... it actually looks like a pretty straightforward downward trend. It's a bear market. It's bouncing on Fibonacci levels. It's starting to give way today... the odds are it's going lower at this point.
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[3:22] right now, the chart of gold is looking like it wants to go to to about $3,600. That is going to be a sweet spot in terms of if it drops down to this level, to me, it's fair value or it's undervalued.
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[11:28] this is a long way down from where we are. This is $40 silver. But what it does, Jeremy, is it actually goes right back... All of those people who chase returns are chasing performance and trading on emotions. The market loves to try to put them under pressure and try and get them back out before they go.
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[10:54] The chart for the dollar is actually pointing to a rally up to about 109. That's a 9% move in in it, which is going to hurt precious metals.
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[26:15] look at the mega caps they the magnificent 7 they have been going down. Utilities have been going up. Big smart money is they they can't just liquidate because they have to stay actively investing... So they move to slower sectors... we are definitely seeing money looking for safety, smart money, and it's coming out of the Magnificent Seven, which to me is an early warning sign.
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[13:57] we could see it pull back to roughly about 6,000 on the S&P 500 down to about 5,500. And so, that is from, you know, the current price today. That is about 18 to a 24% uh pullback in the equities market.
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[14:39] If we take a look at this one from a a zoomed in perspective, this current leg, it is showing that we could see about to 7100 down to about 7,000. So, if the S&P 500 pulls back here, we got about a 3 and a half to about 6% drop. And that'll be a healthy correction.
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[11:22] The next downside target for Bitcoin is $44. Sorry, $44,000. That will break this low from back in 2024. It will be a big cleanse. It's about another 17, I think, percent haircut
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[24:09] I I would say Bitcoin has the most downside potential. If we if we take a look at the the Bitcoin monthly chart, this chart is pointing to a very significant drop... The downside move, this sell-off, and this bounce is pointing to 16,000, which comes back down to a previous low in 2022. So, I think that has the most percentage- wise from where we are right now. I mean, we're looking at another 72% haircut from where it was.
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[33:05] It is still showing that we're going to see a very precipitous drop in gold, silver, and miners. uh they're they're going to continue to unwind, I think... is saying we could see GDX, for example, come all the way down to 69. It could come all the way down to about uh 58. So, from where it's trading right now, we could see another 20% haircut fairly easily.
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[34:34] I feel like the dollar is putting in, you know, one of these types of bases. It's had an unwinding event. Now we we've put in one of these bases and each time we see a big leg higher. And so I think we are on the verge of seeing the US dollar move up... You can see these moves previously when we came out of this type of pattern. 20% move, 20% move, and 20% move.
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[3:20] Yeah, I do. I I I do expect we'll see eventually tech have a very sharp correction.
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[19:21] I think 6,000 is probably a very reasonable level that I think we could see the S&P 500 hit.
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[22:18] it is saying we could potentially work our way up to 8500 which from where that is today that's another you know 11 12%.
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[7:24] this is telling us we should see RSP the equal weighted stock market based on the current price at 208. It should actually run up to about 217. It's about a 4% move.
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The prediction claimed RSP would rally to approximately $217 (a ~4% move from $208.44). The period high reached $218.11 on trading day 38, which exceeds the $217 target, confirming the prediction was correct.
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[7:51] we've got the NASDAQ breaking out and really starting to run again. If we go back to the NASDAQ, it just broke out from this high and it is showing signs that it wants to keep melting up.
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[7:38] technically, the NASDAQ could run about almost about 10% to its first target. That's just saying the current vibrations and the momentum in the market is saying we should see the NASDAQ rally about 10%. The 100% measured move is way up here at 35,400. So, it's showing about a 18% move to the upside.
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[29:37] the downside for silver is pretty dramatic. Like from where we are, as you and I are speaking today, which is uh May 28th, there's a 46% haircut that could come into silver, which is quite substantial.
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[4:52] I do think we could see the markets potentially rally another six, seven percent to the upside, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, maybe even more than that, depending on the time frame we look at.
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[19:20] Silver's got a, you know, $175 upside target
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[24:35] I think oil is going to stay elevated for a while. I think it's going to stay, you know, probably above 88 and and you know, 120.
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[32:04] based on this chart pattern it is pointing to like roughly like you know 8% % interest rates.
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[0:00] What I say longterm is I'm I'm bearish. I do believe we're coming into a huge market correction and it's going to devastate most investors.
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[0:09] Gold and silver trade sideways for a year or two or three.
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[0:09] Gold and silver trade sideways for a year or two or three.
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[0:18] By the end of this year, I think real estate pricing is going to be sharply lower.
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[5:57] The S&P 500 could move all the way up to about 8,500. And so that is a obviously a very significant move. That is about a 20% move.
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[6:50] if we were to just look at where that upside target could be, we're looking at the NASDAQ running to about 32800, it actually ends up being about 20% as well.
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[4:42] gold from a bullish standpoint has is forming what could be a very big bull flag pattern. And this points to dramatically higher pricing going forward. This depending on where we draw from, it's pointing to 8,000 plus for gold.
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[5:38] So it's saying that we could see gold come back down to about 4,000 or 4100. That's a 61% extension to the downside and it could go all the way down to about 35 3600.
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[28:55] I think when the the stock market has a 30 to 50% correction, it's going to pull gold, silver down with it.
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[2:24] the markets are threatening and pushing up to maybe hit all-time highs here in the um next couple of sessions.
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The S&P 500 hit a period high of $7147.52 on 2026-04-17, surpassing the all-time high of $7002.28 set on 2026-01-28, confirming the prediction that it would hit all-time highs within the next couple of sessions.
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[13:31] I think gold might come back to life and push up to 5,000 or a little bit deeper uh 5100 or so.
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The prediction claimed gold would push up to $5,000-$5,100, but the period high was only $4,879.7 on trading day 3, which never reached the $5,000 target.
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[18:48] I think in the next, you know, 5 years from now, we're going to probably see gold and silver up hundreds of percent from here.
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[28:41] You can see here the S&P 500 has potential to rally another 10 or so percent. And then if it if it continues from there, we could see it go another 20%.
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[11:43] Based on the chart pattern right now, the first major level is 140.
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[3:36] At this point, I kind of think that's what's going to happen. And I think we'll fall back down into this range.
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The prediction claimed oil would 'fall back down into its previous trading range' after a news-driven spike, but instead oil spiked from $71.23 to a period high of $119.48 (66.7% gain) and closed at $111.54 (56.6% gain) by the target date, moving dramatically away from the previous range rather than falling back into it.
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[12:27] I would think the markets will want to run uh somewhere all the way up to we could very easily see it the S&P 500 run up to like um 600 and or 6,945 somewhere up here.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 could run up to 6,945, but the period high during the 23 trading days was only 6,901.01 on the prediction date itself, falling 43.99 points short of the 6,945 target, so the specific price target was not met.
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[13:09] It might want to come right back up into resistance. That's around the 25 500 level. And percentage wise, I don't think it's all that much. It's probably one and a half or 2%. Yeah, it's about 2% upside and then we're going to run into resistance from there.
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The prediction claimed a 2% rally to 25,500, which would require the NASDAQ to reach approximately $23,205 (2% above the $22,748.86 prediction date price), but the period high during the target window was only $22,906.72, representing a 0.7% gain—falling short of the claimed 2% upside.
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[20:24] we still might see another couple green bars for Bitcoin, uh, because I think it's going to follow the stock market, but I do feel like things are going to fizzle out and we're probably going to see it head lower.
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin would 'head lower' after a short-term bounce, and while there was an initial bounce to $75,988.40 on trading day 15, the period low of $64,971.71 on trading day 27 represents a -5.5% decline from the prediction price of $68,775.85, confirming the bearish directional forecast was correct.
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[27:15] I think silver has potential to pop to about 140. That would be the next upside target based on technical patterns.
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[21:20] I think you could get a bounce up to 95,000, which is, you know, $7,000 move from here. So, you're looking at 6 7 8% potential gain.
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin could bounce to $95,000 (an 8% gain from $88,270.56), and the period high of $97,860.6 on 2026-01-14 exceeded this target, meeting the specific claim of reaching $95,000.
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[25:49] And the next move from here is actually pointing to, you know, 50 uh 51 $5200 per ounce for gold... first level here is going to be the 46 $4,700 for gold and then I think we could go up here.
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[31:10] I think the dollar could go a lot higher. This is only about to 110. I think the dollar could go to about 116, potentially 121.
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[11:26] when gold comes down into this area, uh, it's going to rally up to 4,800 and then about to 6,500. So, there's quite a bit of potential still to the upside. I don't think it's going to quite get to this level on this run. I think we're going to stall out probably 48, maybe 5,000 maybe.
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[19:17] I think we're walking through a landmine and I think we're very close to the markets going for a nose dive.
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The prediction claimed the markets would go for a 'nose dive' (a sharp, significant decline), and while the period low of $6473.52 on 2026-03-20 represents a -3.9% decline from the prediction date price of $6735.35, the market also rallied to $7002.28 (a +3.96% gain) during the period, demonstrating that the market did not experience a clear 'nose dive' but rather volatility with both significant gains and losses, making the directional prediction only partially correct.
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[38:30] I I do think we're going to see the real estate market and and the the REITs themselves as well fall dramatically again. I think it's going to be an amazing opportunity and I think you can make a lot of money with REITs
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[9:12] I have about 4,100 as the next upside target for gold. Uh we've had this nice run. You and I actually talked about this level last time we were on. And uh and that's kind of where where gold is headed. I think we're going to see it potentially hit 41. it could actually blow past it.
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The prediction claimed gold would reach approximately $4,100 and potentially blow past it. The period high of $4,556.3 exceeded the $4,100 target by a significant margin ($456.30 above target), confirming the prediction was correct.
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[39:08] there's an upside target around 680 SPY. So, this this target is showing us we've got about 3% upside.
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The prediction claimed 3% upside to a target of 680 SPY (approximately $6800 on S&P 500), and the period high reached $6945.77, which represents a 4.6% gain from the prediction date price of $6637.97, exceeding the claimed 3% upside target.
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[37:06] But I still think there's quite a bit of upside in the precious metal space for gold, silver, and miners. I I don't think like I'm not saying it's topping right now.
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The prediction claimed 'quite a bit of upside remaining' for precious metals (gold, silver, and miners). Gold gained 15.9%, silver gained 60.2%, and miners (GDX) gained 19.5% by the target date, with all three reaching significantly higher peaks during the period (gold +22.1% to $4556.3, silver +82.1% to $79.7, GDX +27.5% to $91.67), confirming substantial upside materialized across all three asset classes mentioned.
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[0:00] And that's why I think gold is performing so well and why gold I think is close to a 20 to about 40% rally depending on what happens over the next really week or two or really actually just next week.
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The prediction claimed a 20-40% rally over the next week or two, but the period high of $3477 only represents a 1.1% gain from the prediction date price of $3439.1, falling far short of the minimum 20% target required.
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[19:50] I still have a 136,000 upside target for Bitcoin
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin would reach $136,000, but the period high during the prediction window was $126,198.07 on 2025-10-06, which falls short of the $136,000 target by approximately $9,802, representing an 86% achievement of the stated goal.
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[30:38] I think we're probably going to see oil back down at 56 $57.
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The prediction claimed oil would decline to $56-57 per barrel, and the period low of $54.98 on 2025-12-16 fell below the target range, confirming the decline was reached during the prediction window.
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[9:48] I honestly still feel that gold is going to stall out and roll over.
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The prediction claimed gold would 'stall out and roll over' (bearish sentiment expecting a decline), but gold rose 30.2% from $3322.7 to $4325.6 by the target date, with only a minor 2.1% dip to the period low of $3253.8 before rallying to $4556.3, demonstrating a strong sustained uptrend rather than a stall-out and rollover.
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[10:36] I I would say this rollover should be should be starting to happen somewhere right up here. I think we could potentially push a little bit higher. I think somewhere between where we are right now and maybe just breaking to new all-time highs nominally for a few days or something. I think I think we're in this this zone for the market to roll over.
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The prediction claimed a rollover should start 'somewhere around current levels' with potential to reach new all-time highs for a few days before rolling over; instead, the S&P 500 reached a period low of $5943.23 (0.95% decline) on day 10 before rallying to $6427.02 (7.1% gain) by the target date, showing a continued uptrend rather than the predicted rollover and decline.
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[38:45] I think the stock market is going to try to push a little bit higher and I think Bitcoin is going to go higher with it and um, yeah, you still want to be long Bitcoin.
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin would 'go higher' with the stock market, and the period high of $124,457.12 (up 19.2% from the prediction price of $104,390.34) during the evaluation window confirms Bitcoin did move substantially higher, meeting the bullish directional claim.
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[4:43] this is still a bounce and it's sucking investors and traders in, uh, just before it's probably going to roll over and I think head a whole lot lower
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'roll over and head a whole lot lower,' but instead the index only declined 2.1% from the prediction date price ($5892.58) to the period low ($5767.41 on day 7), then rallied 6.4% by the target date, contradicting the bearish forecast of a significant decline.
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[21:27] 135 is the next upside move
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The prediction claimed an upside target of $135,000, but the period high during the 184-day window was only $126,198.07 on 2025-10-06, which falls $8,801.93 short of the $135,000 target, so the specific price target was not reached.
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[12:23] we're looking at potentially a 15% to another 23 24% drop to the downside. Uh, From where we are right now.
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The prediction claimed a 15-24% drop from the $5569.06 prediction date price, which would require a period low of $4232-$4733.70, but the actual period low was $5433.24 (a 2.4% decline), falling far short of the 15% minimum threshold.
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[21:49] it does point to $3687 an ounce as the next leg higher.
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The prediction claimed gold would reach $3,687 per ounce, but the period high during the 85-day window was only $3,477 on 2025-08-08, falling $210 short of the target price and representing a 5.2% gain versus the 11.6% gain required to hit $3,687.
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[21:26] gold wants to correct down to about 31.45, which is about a 5% drop from here.
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The prediction claimed a 5% drop to $3,145, which would require a decline from $3,305 to $3,145 (a 4.85% drop); the period low of $3,125 on 2025-05-15 exceeded this target magnitude at 5.45% decline, meeting the specific claim.
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[23:21] when we look at the the monthly chart of Bitcoin, it is pointing to $135 an ounce to the upside.
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin would reach $135,000, but the period high during the prediction window was $126,198.07 on 2025-10-06, which falls short of the $135,000 target by approximately $8,802, representing a 6.5% shortfall from the claimed price target.
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[14:16] we could see it pull back to about 4600 all the way down to about 4100. So in in the reality from the ultimate highs we're looking at about a 25 uh to roughly 30% pullback
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The prediction claimed a 25-30% pullback to the 4600-4100 range from highs; however, the period low of $5101.63 represents only a 5.5% decline from the prediction date price of $5396.63, falling well short of the 25-30% pullback magnitude claimed.
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[16:33] I think precious metals, even though they're on fire right now, I think they're going to they're going to get hit. They're going to sell off
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The prediction claimed gold would 'get hit' and 'sell off' despite current strength, but gold only declined 2.9% from the prediction date ($3218.7) to the period low ($3125), which is a minimal pullback that does not constitute a meaningful 'sell off' as claimed; instead, gold rallied 34.4% by year-end and reached a high of $4556.3, completely contradicting the bearish forecast.
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[24:35] My next target is 3,275. We've pretty much hit that
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The prediction claimed a target of $3,275, and the period high reached $3,485.6, which exceeds the $3,275 target by $210.6, confirming the price target was met during the prediction window.
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[30:03] I do I do believe my next kind of downside target is about 72,000
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The prediction claimed a downside target of $72,000, but the period low during the 122-day window was $83,100.62, which never reached the $72,000 target, so the prediction was wrong.
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[34:47] I think we're going to see home prices drop another 15 to 20% uh on average across the board
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The prediction claimed a 15-20% drop in home prices, but the period low of $81.62 represents only a 1.93% decline from the prediction date price of $83.23, falling far short of the claimed 15-20% magnitude.
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[2:07] I think we are in striking distance in the next uh more or less week or two uh to actually enter bare market territory. And if we take a look at the S&P 500 using technical analysis, using a Fibonacci extension, which tells us based on the current price action, the past price action, where price should go, that is going to give us where the full downside target is, which is about 15 uh 5183 on the SP500
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The prediction claimed S&P 500 would drop to 5183 within 1-2 weeks, and the period low of 4835.04 on trading day 5 clearly exceeded this target, making the specific price target achieved during the prediction window.
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[2:44] I think the NASDAQ has got a potential to drop about almost 11% in the next week or two... And so the NASDAQ I think in the next week or two will be down about 22%. And that's about 10% lower 11% down from where we are right now.
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The prediction claimed an 11% drop in 1-2 weeks; the period low of $14,784.03 represents a 14.5% decline from the prediction date price of $17,299.29, exceeding the claimed 11% magnitude, so the prediction was correct.
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[13:59] Uh right now I'm still bullish on gold. Uh I think gold has had the majority of its upside move. I think we could see gold potentially the next upside target for gold is about 3,275.
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The prediction claimed gold would reach approximately $3,275, and the period high of $4,556.3 far exceeded this target price during the evaluation window, making the prediction correct.
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[27:13] There's a very critical line in the sand around the $65 per barrel area, which I believe it's going to break at some point... So I believe we're going to see oil break down.
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[29:25] I was just talking with um some uh traders earlier. Uh the next level is about 72,000. And um you know that's a pretty good haircut from where we are. And if Bitcoin is it falls down to this level about 15% it probably means the stock market the NASDAQ is selling down as well.
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin would drop to approximately $72,000 (about 15% downside from $82,597.59), and while the period low of $74,436.68 came close, it fell short of the $72,000 target price, representing only a 9.9% decline rather than the claimed 15%.
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[6:39] I think we're we're primed and ready for another 50 plus percent selloff breaking the 2022 lows on the on the S 500
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[4:51] we should have some type of bounce up into like March 24th March 25th area
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[21:17] I think there's a lot of downside uh in the NASDAQ in the SP 500 both of them I think will break the 2022 lows
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[28:25] I think 75,000 is the next downside Target just based on this this little move
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