Semiconductors Predictions
Browse Semiconductors market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[3:50] semiconductor stocks are up 80% in nine weeks. These are these are blowoff tops. We've seen this before in the dotcom era and there are shortages but shortages lead to glutes and we think this is the last gasp the last the last takeoff in the AI stocks
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[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.
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[10:24] This is what's called a parabolic move. This is not sustainable... your first correction point is at $320 a share. You're at 600. You're talking about a 50% correction just to get to your first level of support. and and the 50-month moving average is the long-term running support of this rally... this is about a 75% decline in the markets just to get back to that moving average, which it will most likely do.
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[13:44] the semiconductors, you know, they're like, you know, that's that's probably the high you'll see for five years in that group. They're way overpriced.
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[14:04] I think I think the stock prices themselves are telling you the end is not in semiconductors at least. Whether that causes a general market problem remains to be seen.
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[14:44] which is why we're very bullish on the Chinese um semiconductor companies.
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[19:25] This is a bad time to be buying semis. Forward returns from this point in the cycle are horrendous... I think forward returns looking at 12 months, 24 months are going to be pretty poor for some.
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[29:09] Uh I think the sevies are going to break sometime in the next 6 months because of this whole artificial intelligence capbacks over overpromising.
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[25:22] I think semi capex has to accelerate and I think you'll see that. I think wafer starts will accelerate
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[9:06] based on this chart, we should be due for a sizable correction in the semiconductor trade.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a 'sizable correction' (bearish), but the period low of $314.07 represents only a 7.4% decline from the prediction date price of $339.24, which is modest rather than sizable, and the price ultimately rose 20.1% by the target date, contradicting the bearish thesis.
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[33:51] that's why I'm super super bullish on Chinese semiconductor companies because they are going to power not just China's AI boom, but the global majority's AI boom because nobody trusts America as a steady trading partner right now.
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