Jeff Currie Predictions
Executive Co-Chairman, Abaxx Markets
Track Jeff Currie's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[17:54] Oh, up and uh because the situation you just it whether if it's 17, nine or six, you are drawing inventory somewhere between four and six million barrels per day.
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[6:26] I think at this point is when we're going to see diesel cracks, but I don't think diesel prices are going to go down. They're going to stay or go up.
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[22:23] I think here's the time you want to be short the crack and long the crude. I think we're going to see a correction in that and part of the reason Chinese are chasing it.
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[38:47] That's a recipe for much higher grain prices. So, you know, I, you know, again, I, you know, oil, grains, and I look for the grain indices.
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[39:04] So, you got the whole oil complex, which I'm comfortable in saying the whole oil complex is going to go higher.
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[36:35] I thought the risk-reward to getting long again is my confidence and my 100% max bullish. I'm not that. Yesterday was a really difficult day in gold. Today we're back up because of Waller statements. But you really got to think, you know, the things could get uglier on this war front and you know, places like Pakistan could have a problem. you could lose, you know, um, you know, places like UAE could have a problem again, but I I think those risks outweigh and that's why I want to be long right now.
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[39:16] own the basket of you know gold silver platinum platium um don't try to take a view here just own the hard assets
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[39:30] when we think about the commodity index it's the best performing asset class since October 2020 when we started to call for the super cycle um because the rotation may change sometimes It's coffee, sometimes it's cocoa, sometimes it's diesel, sometimes it's oil, sometimes it's gold, sometimes it's silver, but the trend is one thing. It just keeps going higher and higher.
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[28:12] I'm also really worried about the grains I don't you know wheat's had a big run I you know people are telling me this morning you know we come off on this on us um in corn as well. But but two things... I'd argue copper is the new oil it's going to be the strategically most important commodity when when we begin to electrify.
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[11:42] I like to call them as a group the municent seven, the big top seven oil producers. But municent means gifting lavishly. They give you cash. Um so investors should be focused on them right now.
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[0:00] I I don't like to get into the numbers game, but you know, I I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people had put out these numbers, OH MY GOD, he's crazy. Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price go of these commodities go up by 7x on average
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[0:00] I I don't like to get into the numbers game, but you know, I I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people had put out these numbers, OH MY GOD, he's crazy. Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price go of these commodities go up by 7x on average
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[0:00] Do I want to be long oil, and do I want to be long the companies and you know, all of the associated assets to them? The answer is absolutely yes. And I'll always like to say, you know, get long, buckle your seatbelt, and hang on for the ride. Um, and that's it usually the case in commodities. There is a long-term story here that's very much intact. It's been pulled forward and stronger. Today's pullback gives you a buying opportunity that's probably I you know, it's a very unique opportunity right now today. You have a stronger fundamental picture on a already very bullish long-term outlook. So, I I'm I'm a buyer here.
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[2:53] you know, it's not going to make it past July or August. So, that's part of the reason they're rushing to try to get a deal done so quickly.
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While global oil inventories were severely strained throughout mid-2026 (OECD stocks at lowest since December 1990, drawing at ~3.8 mb/d), a literal 'Day Zero' critical depletion did not occur by mid-July. In fact, the IEA's July 2026 report noted that global observed inventories actually rose for the first time in four months in June, as Gulf exports partially recovered. U.S. commercial crude was 6% below the five-year average in mid-July—low but not catastrophically depleted. (https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2026)
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[11:59] the risk is going to take longer than what people suspected and that's what happened with with COVID. Everybody was super bearish on oil thinking it's going to stay down these low levels forever. But what happens it just took a lot longer
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[26:59] the companies have dropped crazily. They're back to like January levels. That's why I like the companies better than the oil right now.
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[26:59] every valuation metric you look on it tells you that it's probably over the most important one I think that's overlooked is these tech guys now look like commodity guys. They produce AI compute... They're putting steel in the ground. These guys don't get People who put steel in the ground don't get 30-plus multiples. They get like 10 to 12.
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[26:59] Historically it's always been a rotation this rotation started in 21 22... it's a matter of time. They just I mean, every valuation metric you look on it tells you that it's probably over
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