Lance Roberts Predictions

Portfolio Manager

Track Lance Roberts's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

17 forecasts 1 wrong 16 pending

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17 forecasts

Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome

Lance Roberts AI Stocks AI capex productivity benefits will begin to materialize within approximately one year (by mid-2027)

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[21:44] We haven't actually fostered off into the productivity side of that yet. That's probably another year out. So I'll probably update this in the next year or so

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-11 2027-07-11 pending

Lance Roberts Fed Funds Rate The Fed's next move will be a rate cut, not a hike

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[3:42] we think the odds are more likely that the Fed is the next thing the Fed's going to do. We don't know when it's going to be, but we'll likely cut, not hike. And the market right now is expecting a hike.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-04 2027-07-04 pending

Lance Roberts GDP Full-year 2026 GDP growth will come in closer to 1.8-2% rather than 2.3-2.6%

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[9:17] there's a real probability that the time we finish up this year, we're going to be closer to 1.8 to 2% GDP growth versus 2.3 to 2.6, right?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-04 2027-01-30 pending

Lance Roberts AI Stocks The AI infrastructure development trade will end within one to two years, after which the infrastructure buildout opportunity will be gone

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[24:06] if you're playing the infrastructure development trade, that's got another year, 18 months to it, maybe two years, but that's going to end. And that whole infrastructure side of the trade is going to go away, and you're going to have to move to the revenue generation side of of the trade.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-27 2028-06-27 pending

Lance Roberts S&P 500 S&P 500 earnings growth will be negatively impacted by the depreciation bill from hyperscaler capex coming due over the next couple of years

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[16:55] S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow north of 20% and and you know, that's all fine, but you know, when you take a look at the five hyperscalers, they're talking about spending, I'm looking at my notes real quick, 760 billion this year. They're going to only expense about 211 billion of that. So, the depreciation bill that nobody's paying attention to is coming due over the next couple of years, and that's going to impact earnings growth as well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-27 2028-06-27 pending

Lance Roberts Semiconductors Semiconductors are poised for a pullback in the near term due to being overbought and overly concentrated

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[0:18] I think your big risk is in semiconductors. Those stocks have gotten way ahead of themselves right now. There's a lot of concentration in that sector. I would be careful with that sector. I would take profits. I would hedge um and then kind of let this market kind of work its way through.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-20 2026-07-31 pending

Lance Roberts Semiconductors Semiconductors will experience a major mean reversion in the near future

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[19:40] what's going to happen to semiconductors in the notsodistant future is going to be a very major reversion back to its mean.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-20 2026-12-31 pending

Lance Roberts Etf Inflows ETF net inflows will not reach $2 trillion by end of 2026, though the annualized pace suggests it

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[27:55] In theory, this is six months. In theory, that's $2 trillion of net inflows by the end of this year. I don't think we get there, but that's the annual that would be the annualized pace of

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-20 2026-12-31 pending

Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will experience a pullback of approximately 7.5% from current levels

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[5:33] we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market. So what this is is this is a Fibonacci retracement. And and if you're not fi familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels... a retracement of you know back to kind of the 50% retracement level which you would kind of expect after such a big advance. Not saying that's got to happen but and that's where the previous breakout high was. So it' be a retracement of the previous breakout. That's about a 7 and a half% decline from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-30 2026-09-30 pending

Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will be higher by end of 2026 despite an intervening correction

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[28:37] the fundamental underpinnings of the market suggest markets will be higher by the end of this year, but you're going to have a correction most likely between now and and then.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-30 2026-12-31 pending

Lance Roberts Semiconductors Semiconductors will eventually decline approximately 75% from current levels to revert to their 50-month moving average

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[10:24] This is what's called a parabolic move. This is not sustainable... your first correction point is at $320 a share. You're at 600. You're talking about a 50% correction just to get to your first level of support. and and the 50-month moving average is the long-term running support of this rally... this is about a 75% decline in the markets just to get back to that moving average, which it will most likely do.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-30 2028-05-30 pending

Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will enter a period of low returns for a decade or two as the current secular bull market ends

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[30:28] we're getting towards the end of that secular bull market period. Valuations are elevated. We've got a lot of exuberance in the markets. um you know there's a whole variety of demographic issues that are going on with the economy that are going to lead up to having this period of low returns for a decade or two

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-16 2036-12-31 pending

Lance Roberts Passive Investing Passive capital flows into markets will peak and begin to diminish within a few single-digit years

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[26:28] I think we can actually start to see the peak of the mountain on these passive capital flows. is like I don't know exactly when it's going to happen but I think it could be within a couple years like singledigit years we get to the point where those um those passive flows start to diminish you know first in in their rate of increase but then they actually start to to decrease

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-16 2031-12-31 pending

Lance Roberts Germany Germany will be pushed into a recession due to high oil prices

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[15:10] Germany which was already struggling just barely above recession levels anyway. This is almost assuredly going to push Germany into a recession.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-04-04 2026-12-31 pending

Lance Roberts Oil West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will drop back to the $60 range by the end of 2026

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[6:09] what markets are expecting, this will be a fairly short-lived event and then we're going to get back to business of growing the economy.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-21 2026-12-31 pending

Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will rally back above the 200 day moving average to 6720-6750 next week

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[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-21 2026-03-28

Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will rally starting within the next week through April, experience volatility through summer midterm elections, then rally into year end.

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[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-14 2026-12-31 pending