Lance Roberts Predictions
Portfolio Manager
Track Lance Roberts's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[5:33] we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market. So what this is is this is a Fibonacci retracement. And and if you're not fi familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels... a retracement of you know back to kind of the 50% retracement level which you would kind of expect after such a big advance. Not saying that's got to happen but and that's where the previous breakout high was. So it' be a retracement of the previous breakout. That's about a 7 and a half% decline from here.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[28:37] the fundamental underpinnings of the market suggest markets will be higher by the end of this year, but you're going to have a correction most likely between now and and then.
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[10:24] This is what's called a parabolic move. This is not sustainable... your first correction point is at $320 a share. You're at 600. You're talking about a 50% correction just to get to your first level of support. and and the 50-month moving average is the long-term running support of this rally... this is about a 75% decline in the markets just to get back to that moving average, which it will most likely do.
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[30:28] we're getting towards the end of that secular bull market period. Valuations are elevated. We've got a lot of exuberance in the markets. um you know there's a whole variety of demographic issues that are going on with the economy that are going to lead up to having this period of low returns for a decade or two
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[32:25] if you just look at the historical length of secular bull markets, we're close to the end of this cycle. Next three, four years probably.
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[26:28] I think we can actually start to see the peak of the mountain on these passive capital flows. is like I don't know exactly when it's going to happen but I think it could be within a couple years like singledigit years we get to the point where those um those passive flows start to diminish you know first in in their rate of increase but then they actually start to to decrease
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[0:00] I still believe uh because momentum is very overbought here because relative strength is very overbought here that we could see a bit of a pullback you know back toward this deviation to the 20-day moving average is very large the deviation to the 100 and the 50-day is is very very large. This is a very big gap over the 50-day moving average. So you're eventually going to get a correction back to this level.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction called for a pullback to the 20-day or 50-day moving averages due to overbought conditions, implying a decline from the prediction date price of $7200.75, but the period low was $7174.12 (only a ~0.4% dip) and the price then rallied 5.7% to $7609.78 by the target date, never experiencing a meaningful pullback toward those moving averages.
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[15:10] Germany which was already struggling just barely above recession levels anyway. This is almost assuredly going to push Germany into a recession.
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[6:09] what markets are expecting, this will be a fairly short-lived event and then we're going to get back to business of growing the economy.
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[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a rally back above the 200-day moving average to 6720-6750, but the period high during the target week was only $6651.62 on 2026-03-23, which falls short of the claimed 6720-6750 price target range by at least $68.38.
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[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.