Cem Karsan Predictions

Founder and CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors

Track Cem Karsan's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

7 forecasts 7 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
  • Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
  • Submit corrections
7 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Cem Karsan S&P 500 The S&P 500 will deliver a lost decade or more of nominal equity returns with meaningful real losses over the next 10+ years
See quote
[1:10] He believes that we're on the cusp of a lost decade plus in nominal equity returns and meaningful real losses if investors keep using the same old 40-year buy the dip stayong growth playbook.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-24 2036-05-24 pending
Cem Karsan Inflation Rate Structural inflation will rise and persist over the coming 15-20 year regime shift driven by deglobalization, populism, and fiscal dominance
See quote
[2:28] we've entered a generational time of populism... deglobalization, and rising structural inflation... This is when you start to see commodity scarcity because if we start splitting up and doing protectionism... inflation through fiscal spending and fiscal dominance ends up slowing things the broad growth and definitely profits down

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-24 2041-05-24 pending
Cem Karsan S&P 500 S&P 500 profit margins will contract as inflation and higher interest rates compress multiples over the coming years
See quote
[0:38] higher interest rates leads to multiple contraction and profit margin contraction... about 75% of businesses have profit margins collapse as inflation gets going. And yes, revenue increases, but the actual profit margin decreases.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-24 2031-05-24 pending
Cem Karsan Gold Precious metals will continue to see growing demand and AUM as investors adopt alternative, non-correlated assets during the current regime shift
See quote
[21:09] This is what's leading to the boom in precious metals and and and crypto but also those are assets but also to the growth of hedge fund assets structured product options trading. All of these things have an AUM tripled or quadrupled in four years in AUM and are still a tiny fraction of the broader investment universe.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-24 2028-05-24 pending
Cem Karsan Commodities Commodity costs will rise due to protectionism, deglobalization, and geopolitical tensions over the coming years
See quote
[8:18] This is when you start to see global conflict. This is when you start to see commodity scarcity because if we start splitting up and doing protectionism, we have plenty of commodities in this world if we all just trade and share. But when commodities are sequestered in certain countries and certain places, commodity cost starts to rise as well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-24 2031-05-24 pending
Cem Karsan S&P 500 The S&P 500 could see further upside between now and fall 2026, but investors should be very cautious around the midterm election period and after
See quote
[32:09] as you get into, uh, fall, particularly near the election or post-election, uh, you have to be incredibly cautious what happens between now and then. Uh, very well could see a little bit more of this.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-05-13 2026-11-30 pending
Cem Karsan S&P 500 A market downturn or significant inflection point is more likely to occur after summer 2026
See quote
[33:07] you see a timing window of of after the summer as more likely.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-05-13 2026-12-31 pending