Fed Balance Sheet Predictions
Browse Fed Balance Sheet market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[15:00] I think under Wor, he's not going to be able to dial that back. He's not going to be able to take away the end of QT because I don't think it's in the best interest of the US Treasury. It's not in the best interest of managing the inflation of the country in managing the cost of servicing the massive debt that keeps growing that the country has.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[14:11] I don't see them going to a QT I don't see them stopping um what what is already in motion which is effectively QE um but not called QE
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[25:17] No, he can't shrink the balance sheet. He's going to expand the balance sheet. In fact, it expanded last week. If he wants to shrink it, why isn't he shrinking it right now?
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[9:59] My expectation is that the tapering of the balance sheet, what is known as quantitative tightening is unlikely to resume anytime soon... I don't think it is going to happen anytime soon
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[3:45] I published the book in February of 25. And so we're over the book has been out now over a year, almost a year and a half. Uh, and I said at that time frame I thought would happen within two years. I might be proven wrong, but we'll see what happens between now and next February.
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[23:09] it would not surprise me at all. And like I said, I look forward to seeing the language of this um that there's some loosening of language related to QE or some sort of bond buying by the FOMC committee when they um release their statement in two weeks.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The June 17, 2026 FOMC statement contained no language loosening the stance on QE or bond buying. Instead, the statement moved in the opposite direction: it removed the prior easing bias, focused on delivering price stability amid elevated inflation, and Chair Warsh explicitly dispensed with forward guidance. Multiple sources confirm the statement marked 'a clear move away from the easing bias.' (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[13:49] I think the Fed is inevitably going to have to pick up the pace of purchases of Treasury securities. They're going to let their mortgage book run off. And I still think there's a good chance that Kevin Worsh is going to swap the mortgage securities that he owns with the Treasury to get Treasury securities
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[37:02] we're going to see a I'll say continuation of QE because they really started QE again back in December. the nonQEQ. Um um but I think we're going to see a continuation of that and perhaps you know that will get even more dramatic in terms of size if they feel they can't really lower interest rates
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[15:03] The real TINA isn't stocks. The real TINA is QE in my view.
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[41:11] I have said many times in the last several years that I expect the Fed balance sheet to grow by at least 20 trillion.
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[30:20] The question is when do they start QE? When do they start buying bonds? Um and I think that's coming soon.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed ended quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, but did NOT restart QE (active bond buying). As Babypips noted, 'ending QT is not the same as restarting full-scale quantitative easing' and 'the Fed has not launched a new bond-buying spree.' The prediction specifically claimed the Fed would start 'buying bonds,' which did not occur within the target period. (https://www.babypips.com/news/explainer-2025-12-03-fed-ends-qt-why-it-matters)