US Dollar Predictions

[16:35] The the US dollar, which is such a key part of US hedgeimonyy geopolitically uh and financially and militarily, all of those things are changing. Again, it's not the end of Rome or the end of the Dutch or the end of the British empires, but in terms of they still exist, but they're no longer hegemonic. And the same is going to happen to the US. It's happening right now

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[27:35] the dollar should be headed to the downside over the next year. And if we can keep growth and we can keep interest rates from going up too high, then that absolutely will be beneficial, I think, to earnings.

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[27:19] even if we bounce after the yen gets to say 151 I don't sense it'll get much higher versus the dollar. So I I do sense that dollar yen's move will prove shortlived for their own reasons of say gradualism.

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[7:49] I would suggest that the deterioration of the purchasing power of the US dollar is proceeding along at 8 or 9% per annum compounded.

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[22:11] Yeah, I mean you know people you know there was quite a bit of chatter for a while that the dollar was strong and it was only relatively strong. It was really kind of nowhere. The dollar index was 100. Now what is it 98 change? Yeah. 98 99. I mean, it's it's yeah, it'll be under it'll be under somewhat pressure

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[34:32] when the system itself starts crumbling, when the dollar starts losing its value even more than it is today, because believe me, we've lost so much just in the last few years.

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[7:17] there are a lot of people especially non-Americans who think that this is a moment to sell the crap out of the US dollar because they think that you know that this strategic defeat is inevitable and that this is going to be bullish gold and very bearish for the US dollar and then you know it's difficult to disagree with

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[10:08] I would continue to play despite the short-term counter trend move. I would continue to play weaker dollar over the coming couple of years and stronger yen.

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[9:22] The lower interest rates go, the deeper the dollar falls. The deeper the dollar falls, the higher gold prices go. And also the world has had enough of the United States geopolitical and socioeconomic agy. The death of the dollar is on the doorstep.

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[20:17] we will slowly default on the reserve status. let the dollar collapse slowly, it still will have the rails of commerce, but if you save in it, you're dead.

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[0:35:44] I don't think the dollar's going to fall in the next 6 months because so much capital is coming into America because of the fear of the war.

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[0:35:56] But after that dust is kind of settled, I think you're going to see them go pedal to the metal and try and work off the debt through revaluation of gold. uh releasing of US federal lands which are enormous and extremely valuable out in the western half of the United States and then uh through printing money

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[30:02] I think the dollar index may have completed its correction today. So, you know what that implies to me, David, is we're close to seeing a rebound rally in the dollar index

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[4:03] I think we could see the dollar continue to trade sideways for a while. I don't see the dollar rallying right away... the dollar is going to trade sideways until maybe the stock market starts to stall out and then we'll probably see the dollar start to pick up speed and break out again while the equities market rolls over. So the dollar here is at support. I think it's going to hold its ground over the next uh month or two.

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[17:49] the dollar is breaking an uptrend. We just fell through some support levels right at the 100 101 level. So I I would want to see us retake that.

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[16:17] the dollar continues, not fastly, but slowly, to be more and more sold and not bought, uh irregardless of how the dollar index may rebound. We're still seeing less usages of the dollar as world currency

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[25:14] I think the dollar is going to continue to go higher as long as there's uncertainty around the world, around the globe. I could see it going as high as 102, 103, maybe higher, depending on how these markets react.

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[27:17] I think all this fiat currency is going to devalue against real assets, which is one of the reasons why I still like gold very much and gold miners.

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[23:04] watch the US dollar uh in a global slowdown. uh the US dollar will strengthen because uh there'll be a scramble for dollar liquidity and I think the dollar put in a very important cycle low in January and it broke out above its uh it went to a new 52- week high about a month ago. It back tested that breakout and now it's rising again

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[36:25] It It that the strength will continue. >> Okay. >> At least At least in the short run, that's the The dollar's very very strong

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[9:22] So, I'm confident that the dollar rally is coming to an end, particularly if tech starts itself more pronounced in a more pronounced way.

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[5:04] My belief, and I can bore your audience if you want with all arithmetic, is that the US dollar will duplicate its performance in the decade of the 1970s, which is to say it will lose 75% of its remaining purchasing power the next 10 years.

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[16:35] dependencies just on fiat currencies are going to decline over the next 5 years.

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[9:23] I believe specifically, and I said this the last time you and I interviewed, that the dollar will likely lose 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years, which suggests that the gold price in nominal terms, US dollar quoted terms, could be a triple over 10 years.

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[5:48] I think there's less pressure on the US Fed to lower interest rates. I think ultimately they will, but I don't think they'll have to in calendar two 2026. That means relatively strong US dollar.

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[0:00] you're in the fourth turning and it it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. And if it gets worse, then that likely means the dollar goes up and starts destroying and and being more of a problem uh for all these other currencies.

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[34:07] I think the trends are going in the wrong way. Um, and part of the reason is because I think we've had this shiny object called the Middle East for quite some time.

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[10:22] So America won't will be relatively strong. Yeah. But the buying power will go down. But the buying power of everything else will go down more.

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[43:43] Dollar forecast: DXY to 93–94 short term, then a run toward 120+

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[27:36] Not buying that at all. I can see the dollar softening.

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[17:11] The system that the China uh has put in place is a very slow but deadly erosion of dollar dominance and anyone who doesn't see that is not watching the game turn. It's slow motion uh but it's coming each time it's coming you know uh and it's bleeding away on you.

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[10:54] The chart for the dollar is actually pointing to a rally up to about 109. That's a 9% move in in it, which is going to hurt precious metals.

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[30:19] I would also look at, you know, the dollar, the Dixie doesn't trade enough for me to want to get involved with it. But if I were going to trade the Dixie, I would sell it here.

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[21:10] I think the US dollar is going higher. Uh so especially if you are um comparing gold to the US dollar, right? There are other economies that look at gold in terms of their currencies, but in terms of the US dollar, I think this bet is flatout wrong. And I would be uh intrigued by the opportunity to take the other side of that.

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[34:34] I feel like the dollar is putting in, you know, one of these types of bases. It's had an unwinding event. Now we we've put in one of these bases and each time we see a big leg higher. And so I think we are on the verge of seeing the US dollar move up... You can see these moves previously when we came out of this type of pattern. 20% move, 20% move, and 20% move.

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[5:12] I think we'll be right back to that dollar weakness gold strength silver strength the fundamentals will support the silver story

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[14:11] I think perceptions of a much stronger dollar are likely uh a very likely. Uh the Walsh has indicated he wants the markets to tighten, and that really means a stronger dollar and rising yields or a steepening curve, for sure.

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[12:53] In the decade of the 70s, according to the office of management and budget, the US dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years, which is what I believe happens over the next 10 years.

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[29:09] there is no way that the dollar can come back to a semblance of strength when we're 200 trillion in debt, when interest rates have nowhere to go but higher.

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[0:18] I think the US dollar is going to lose a lot of value relative to other currencies. And I I'm just, you know, I'm playing for the endgame.

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[17:40] but overall, I think that the dollar is going to weaken because traders are focused more on nominal rates. The Fed is going to hike rates. They've gone from forecasting rate cuts to now two or three more hikes between now and the end of the year. But, these are quarter point rate hikes. 75 basis point hike is not going to do anything to slow the inflation train.

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[13:39] there there's a very good chance we're going to see a US dollar crisis a run on the dollar a panic. Okay. and and that would change, you know, the dynamics forever.

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[29:44] I expect the dollar to weaken a little somewhat here actually down to 94 maybe a little lower than that on the Dixie

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[16:11] The percentage of dollar global foreign exchange reserves, right, has been on the decline for the last 25 years. We're about to drop under 50%. The dollar's about to drop under 50%.

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[16:46] ultimately, the dollar is going to continue to be worth less, that we have a global debt crisis, right, and the United States is going to have inflation that leads to rapid inflation and hyperinflation and eventually a currency reset, right? That's where we're heading.

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[2:38] what's what you're going to see is you're going to see fiat currencies devalue themselves, if you will, like they did back in 1933 in the United States. You're going to see uh fiat currencies being devalued to try to bring inflation back into the system.

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[6:54] more money printing is only a question of time. Only a question of time.

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[29:01] the average life span of a reserve currency is right at 90 years old. Okay, we're already there. So, if you go back, you know, before us it was Britain and then it was France, Netherlands, Spain, and on and on. So, the average just in the last 5 600 years the average life span, if you do the math, is right at 90. Well, we're over 100.

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[30:04] I think since 2000 to now, so for the last 25 years, the use of the dollar in international trade has dropped 40%.

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[32:25] the dollar is going to depreciate uh and that's going to continue to provide a tailwind for the rest of the world. Everyone likes to say, well, it hasn't happened yet. The point is that it's happening, but it's it's happening slowly and will just build over time.

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[3:57] we're going to be looking at a sovereign debt crisis and a US dollar crisis I think before the end of the Trump term.

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[21:16] breaking support in terms of the the uh foreign exchange value of the US dollar. That's also uh looks weak. It looks like it's on a precipice. uh it's been testing uh up in the high 90s right now. It's broken through down through a 100.

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[32:44] I don't necessarily think that the dollar will rally from here. It could actually, you know, continue to turn sideways to lower. That's the way I think it's going to go.

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[38:30] Oh, I'm very confident of that. It's hard not to be confident in that projection because it's it's it's actually accelerated over the last 50 years or so. Um, and since we've gone on off the gold exchange standard, it was it was still it was declining before that, but now now it's accelerated. And so, yeah, you have to be, you know, you have to be in other assets because that's where the the the p, you know, that's where everything flows to... and you are going to inflate your way uh into a uh ever less valuable purchasing power of the dollar... that's how I see the future a continued decline in the purchasing power of the dollar.

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[28:34] since 1971 right after I was born US dollar versus commodities the dollar has fallen 99% versus gold 96% versus oil 89% versus copper... Paper money is failing... we're going to see more liquidity, more money printing, it's going to continue.

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[34:43] the dollar will still be reserve currency but if we want if we want to actually make things here again, then we need a much weaker dollar. I'm not talking about, you know, 97 on DXY. I'm talking about 60 on DXY over a span of, say, 3 years, 65, something like that, maybe even lower.

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[22:02] we will go back to a gold standard of sorts while everybody figures out their new place in the new world order because they will need something.

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[9:26] We're kind of the end run of the dollar as a world's reserve currency. Um, you know, where it loses tremendous amounts of value, you know, quickly.

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[0:32] The facts are that the debt keeps climbing, the dollar keeps being devalued, and those who are not position for what comes next risk losing everything.

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[19:37] I think um the momentum on the downside for the dollar is real um because the momentum in emerging markets on the upside is real, right? So, if you continue to see, you know, people being people, you know, they're going to chase they're going to chase emerging markets.

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[17:54] I think uh the US dollar will be safer than some of the other currencies the European currency.

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[36:24] we might be getting the best growth that debt can buy and that can be associated with a weaker currency and that would be my baseline scenario in the medium term.

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[15:52] I just think the US dollar will slowly give up its global reserve currency

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[15:39] this whole thing has a much bigger picture view. And what you just said, yes, absolutely. This is the way it'll go. The US is not making any friends in in many ways in in terms of trade or in terms of NATO, in terms of the UK, Canada, the EU. And this is all bearish for the dollar

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[34:34] my underlying thesis, and we've shared this on your show numerous times, is that over the next nine or 10 years, the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power, while gold likely maintains its purchasing power.

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[18:28] I think the dollar is going to be stuck between 96 cents and a dollar2 right now trading at 98 cents.

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[27:01] I think it's due to come down another 15 or 20% particularly against the Asian currencies.

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[28:22] does this mean the dollar is going to go down another 7 to 10% in 2026? That would be on the high side, but I would say 5% would be my guess of what we see at the end of the year.

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[19:50] That next push higher will take the dollar above 10050

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[33:08] the dollar just in this. You're going to have counter trend rallies, but you're just in a massive secular decline.

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[34:02] But I do still think that that's where the capital will come. I do think that the United States will outperform the rest of the world. Um, and I don't I don't think it's over yet.

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[6:13] It plays out with a um a decline in the value of the currency that becomes unmanageable and disorderly uh which is followed by a collapse in that currency and then a reset, some kind of new currency system is created going forward. So, we're we're deep into that process now. I would say that we're in the death spiral part of that because uh the the numbers are just so immense.

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[28:06] I think the dollar ddollarization is unstoppable.

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[0:35] The death of the dollar is before our eyes.

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[9:06] I think the dollar is going to probably start trending back up here maybe to around like 105 106 somewhere in in that ballpark. Maybe a little maybe a little higher maybe like 107 or something.

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[4:49] the dollar loses 90% of its value every 20, 30 years or so. And there's no stopping that train. There's going to be more government spending. There's going to be more inflation.

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[22:49] the dollar is likely going to weaken further here. And this is just in that bigger ddollarization scenario which will take years to play out, right? But slowly the dollar likely goes lower. And I'm I'm a bear on the dollar.

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[13:11] There will be no death of the dollar. It will be a slow maybe not too controlled but pretty controlled I expect devaluation

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[12:35] I think it's going to be a US dollar crisis, a sovereign debt crisis.

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[20:35] a lot of countries uh to offset the risk of a plummeting US dollar are willing to put R&B in their reserves

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[2:14] I believe that this uh conflict that has escalated with the US and Iran will continue to drive uh central banks out of the dollar

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[6:16] I have been a US dollar bear and um I acknowledge that right now the US dollar is going up of course but I don't think this lasts.

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[25:55] you're going to have a scenario most likely where rates go lower and the dollar goes lower.

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[11:06] So that's why I think we're in for the collapse of the US dollar. As a worst case scenario, I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm prepared for it if it does happen.

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[0:00] the Fed's forcing rates down to three or four. That means buyers of the US debt today are going to get paid back in money that's worth a lot less than they're paying for it today. That feeds the hard asset trade.

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[21:26] emerging market bonds uh are looking local currency because the US dollar is in a bare market and that's going to continue

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[11:40] do I see the dollar lower? Yeah, I do.

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[20:54] the weak dollar is going to be a theme for the next two years.

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[8:22] I think the dollar could actually hold its value because I think we could see a lot of other currencies. I think we see a lot of other commodities and equities markets sell off as well.

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[16:09] I also do think that the US dollar which has had a tough year this year will continue to weaken

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[40:46] I think the short short dollar is a is a good idea. Um long things like the yen, long things like Canada I think are becoming good ideas here.

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[42:46] I think there's a chance that we're going to see a fairly significant rally over the next 12 months in the dollar index and some of it could be due to a liquidity squeeze

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[31:10] I think the dollar could go a lot higher. This is only about to 110. I think the dollar could go to about 116, potentially 121.

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[0:14] There's basically been the demand to move assets or kind of exposure out of the US and the US dollar in particular uh will probably go on for a while longer. At least as long as Trump is there and causing chaos.

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[46:02] people will continue to use the the US dollar I think for uh I mean this this issue has been debated so many times you know is this is this the end of dollar dominance we've called we've we've called the end so many times and it continues

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[6:19] the dollar is simply losing purchasing power because it's overs supplied, overextended, and less trusted and less credible.

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[17:30] interest rates are coming down in America and therefore bonds are going to bond yields are going to go down and bond values are going to go up and that's that's what's and the dollar is going to go down

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[0:12] I am expecting a near-term rally in the dollar but longer term I think the dollar has structural problems

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[37:50] Dollar is going to keep keep weakening and and get into my the the key the key dollar price is a dollar euro rate and and I think the fair value is 120 to 140 and and we're at about uh let's just look. look around 11718... So I think that the dollar will slip into the fair value range. It will it will go from 117 to weaken to 120 and and further into that range.

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[17:54] I mean I think the dollar uh the dollar is going to continue to be weak

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[15:52] I think there's a very plausible case to be made that the dollar needs to go a lot lower in the next 3 to 5 years.

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[35:40] this looks like a pretty important break. So, this is we we think threeyear uh either support or resistance is important. This is 5 years. The longer it is, the more important it is. Uh so this is I think a sign that the dollar is in a structural downtrend

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[2:51] I think the dollar itself is probably likely to be in a sideways rangebound type of movement unless you have a real riskoff policy in case the dollar were to rebound.

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[0:00] They pay you 4.5% in a currency which I believe is deteriorating in terms of purchasing power at 7.5% a year. You're losing 3% a year for 10 years. 3% compounded which means over 10 years gold likely goes in nominal terms much higher or rather gold holds its real value while the purchasing power of the dollar declines by 75%.

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[35:36] Upside target. I'll give you guys my upside target. See this last major low right here, kind of right in this same level. So, I'd be looking for the dollar to get back to about 100 on the DXY. And then once we get in there, that'll be the first test of major resistance. But I think right now we're probably going back to 100 on the DXY.

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[9:48] It's due for a bounce, but eventually I think the dollar goes even lower

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[20:17] we are debasing our dollar and we are debasing our currency to sustain our bond market to buy bonds and keep those yields fictionally lower or controlled.

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[17:32] Yeah, well I think we've got a long way to go uh in terms of adjusting the dollar to essentially where it's uh it's closer to being of fair value... we're likely entering a longer term phase where the dollar sees a lot of, you know, is sort of getting the short end of the stick in terms of, you know, global investment flows.

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[14:44] I actually think the dollar could surprise on the upside. Everyone and their brothers, sister's boyfriend's roommate is now bearish on the dollar. U everyone talks about the dollar going lower. Again, I tend to be a little bit more contrarian in my thinking. It wouldn't surprise me to see the dollar make a comeback, at least for a moment in time.

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[13:38] The dollar has been losing value for the last 6 months. This is a very dangerous uh uh a a a separation or gap if you will between what is normally a a a cons consensus a a a movement together that you often see but you're not seeing it now.

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[38:11] I think we're going down to new cycle lows in the US dollar between now and the end of the year.

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[12:18] So I think a correction now is certainly in the cards. Uh is certainly you know uh a a strong possibil probability but I don't see I don't see it going back to where we started the year.

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[0:00] And this is why we think we're early innings of a a secular dollar bare market.

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[16:26] So I think the general direction of travel here for the dollar is is down.

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[7:04] I think the dollar eventually breaks that support and on the dollar index it gets down to the 89.990 area. So there's still another 10% or more decline in my eyes for the US dollar sometime later in the year.

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[30:37] I think in the long run I think uh you know you're going to get that and then also if you get inflation you'll get a lower dollar too I think I think I think those things will press against us here

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