Treasury Yields Predictions

[20:25] We're going to punch through the yield highs. We're going to go through the price lows. And when you do that, the Fed, it's not one of their mandates. You know, it doesn't say we we're here to defend the government debt. Okay? But that's that's their mandate.

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[31:04] a lot of people think we will and, you know, could have big losses because you you look at these price charts for these major bond markets around the world, they look sick... we're going from five to six on the long-term Treasury

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[32:49] Y, yeah, yields are going up. Yields are going up anyway because the interest rate is a function of the inflation rate... And I think that I think they'll remain elevated. And that's why you've got the 10year at uh you know, almost 4 and a.5%.

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[2:52] I mean I think that it will actually hit the markets when we see bond yields run up again um particularly at the long end. And um they're breaking out. I mean they're all some of them have already broken out. I mean Germany's for example um France's Japan's they're already breaking out on the upside. The other G7s will follow.

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[2:10] I think yields are going a lot higher on the longer end in particular. And eventually the stock market is going to notice that and you're going to start to see some weakness there.

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[20:38] we're pretty much poised on a precipice of interest rates on long-term government debt breaking out to the upside.

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[25:16] that's when you will have a temporary collapse in long bond yields, governments and central banks throwing everything into the kitty so that you get a resurgence of inflation. Take us into the real collapse some somewhere between 2030 and 2032.

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[13:38] I think we'll get persistently higher yields because as we have seen central banks do cut rates and they have cut rates despite for example in the UK you saw uh inflation was rising and still the bank of England reduce rates but you know what happens is that the bank of England cuts rates and in very little time bond yields are back have completely offset that rate cut

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[12:00] I expect we'll probably see more of those pressures, especially if wars actually endeavors to shrink the balance sheet.

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[25:09] I do think rates will continue to move higher. I don't think I'm at the point where I'm going to say that we're at imminent risk of breaking something. That could be later, but not right now.

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[6:11] We spoke last time about the possibility of the yields going to 5% or higher. U, you asked me, do I have more conviction in that view now? Yes, I certainly do.

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[15:31] I think honestly in the near term, yields probably are going to start to come back in. I don't think the government's going to let things get too far out of control without the Fed trying to intervene.

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[21:03] we're suggesting that u investors should um should be very cautious and and and really take a defensive posture and that means being long um treasury bonds being out of stocks or possibly short major stock indices.

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[7:47] I think bonds are mispriced. I think yields are heading up.

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[32:04] based on this chart pattern it is pointing to like roughly like you know 8% % interest rates.

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[14:17] I think duration is the actually investment opportunity. you know, as much as people think yields are going to keep on rising, quite the opposite.

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[22:32] I still think there'll be enough of an inflation shock up ahead here and concerns that it's it's spreading that we will see four and 3/4%. But I would view that as a a tremendous buying opportunity.

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[8:47] even if we go into a recession, I think uh long-term interest rates on Treasury bonds will go higher, not lower, and that will break the pattern of the f the first 40 years of my career. And I think that's what's going to happen.

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[14:08] I'm projecting that TLT could double or a little more in this crisis when everything else including now gold and silver uh go down

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[31:11] they will go that or lower. They could go negative. So, if you're holding that 10-year Treasury and it goes from 4 and a half today down to zero, you know how much that bond's going to be worth? Double.

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[1:26] I think it's about time we're going to get a pretty significant reversion next year in stock market bond yields to go lower

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[39:08] the high in 2023 on the tenure was a 5%. I think we're going to go about 5%.

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[13:26] there's all sorts of these forces that are moving in an inflationary direction and that of course is going to be another significant force um um pushing bond yields higher

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[0:07] Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down, that bonds are going to go down.

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[35:01] And I'm looking for the low 3% by early 2026.

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[17:30] interest rates are coming down in America and therefore bonds are going to bond yields are going to go down

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