Agricultural Commodities Predictions

[9:07] As we look forward into the remainder of 2026 and into the start of 2027, the supplies that we're missing that are not there anymore hurts the global SMD. And so who does that put more pressure on? It's the buyer because that manufacturer for the rest of this year and into next year is going to be able to sit there and say supplies are tight. You need the tons. I can afford to sit back and wait for you to step forward and buy my price because I just don't feel that pressure. I feel like I'm in a more powerful position. And that's where you start to get some of these points of view that as a whole these markets are going to be higher priced.

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[25:03] I think this year, if they start coming back and saying, 'Hey, we've done the crop tour. These yields are not looking good.' But I think they are going to be taken a little more seriously because the fear is going to be there that they didn't fertilize. So the yields are going to be impacted and that's going to be the first thing the market gets to see to actually show there's going to be lower yields across the board.

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[39:09] at some point, I do think you're going to see a price response in the big row crops like corn, soybean, and wheat that the farmer desperately needs to be able to afford the big rise in fertilizer prices. Unfortunately, those of us that eat every day, we're not going to be too happy about a big jump in crop prices because that's going to flow through into general food prices. Uh so that's the dynamic I think that you're in. But I do think there's an a bull market ahead of us both in terms of of crop prices and a further rise in fertilizer prices that will benefit the fertilizer producers.

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[15:29] This fragile environment is likely to rise over the next couple of years. We will have shortages of... You have shortages of food. You then have civil unrest.

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[11:37] I think the agricultural approaches, soybeans first and foremost, but um I think that's probably the most sensitive area and the one where the US has got plenty of supply and and Chinese have the basic demand. So I think that's the one that's probably most likely to to see to see considerable actions and agreements.

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[4:08] If you look at the price increases in your grocery stores in the months ahead, it will be worse than it is now. Uh but these rising prices will arise or arrive quietly and mercilessly.

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[17:54] So, they're going to be uh you know that that means that land is going to have to be nonoptimally used and uh less land is going to be put into production. So that we will see, you know, the impact of that uh after the fall harvest uh is actually realized.

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[32:11] by the way, a third of the world's fertilizer comes through the straight of Hormuz. Well, it hasn't been coming through. And fertilizer prices are through the over 50% increase in those. So, farmers aren't aren't buying fertilizer. We're going to have food problems. Food prices will go up.

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[23:09] I'm expecting a 25 to 30% rally across the board.

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[17:16] the crop yields, uh, you know, 6 months from now will be undoubtedly softer. I'll use the word soft, which is a nice a nice um a nice neutral word, but they'll be softer uh than maybe anticipated.

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[31:55] Whatever you do, invest in anything that comes out of the ground. Food. If you grow it, it's going to be a lifesaver. The world is not going to have enough food. We know that now.

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[17:18] a lot of what's going into food at home prices are intermediate inputs and various shocks that have been hitting these for the last two to five years really. Um I I don't quite understand why we never recovered as as fully as we thought we would from the CO shocks, but I mean we really haven't. Uh and and I think that's like a good illustration that we're, you know, we're still expecting 2 and a half% food inflation.

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[24:07] I thought the grain I think the grains are bottom. So, I'm certainly bullish the grain market.

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[24:13] I'm certainly bullish cotton.

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[36:08] Once energy starts inflecting, you see natural gas, diesel prices, all that going up. You're going to see ammonia prices going up. You're going to see fertilizers going up. Eventually, what do you see? Corn prices going up, cocoa going up. All these things are going to go up in price

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[23:19] I'm very bullish on energy right now and agricultural commodities. I think they're going to move. I think gold and silver are just leading the way.

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