US Housing Market Predictions

[30:33] if you're a homeowner in US and Canada um get used to seeing your home value likely decrease over the next couple years.

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[4:13] the only thing that's going to enable homes to be purchased will be a dramatic decline in prices, maybe 30 to 50% decline in real estate prices nationwide, which would be as big if not bigger than the drop that we had uh you know in 2007 2008

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[27:33] the correction that has to happen just to bring prices back to you know equilibrium is about is over 50% on equity prices and about 25 to 30% at a minimum in the real estate market

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[30:58] Housing great location. Houses in a world of hurt now.

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[10:14] By keeping interest rates high in an attempt to forestall inflation, you are preventing new homes from being built. Those new homes mean that there will be a relative shortage of homes available and home prices and rents will be higher than they otherwise would be.

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[18:59] there is one ingredient you absolutely positively must have to have a housing crash and we should define crash. Okay, so that means prices declining by 20 maybe 25%. That would definitely be considered a crash to me... If you want to have a crash, you must have tens of millions... of home owners who become suddenly millions of distressed home sellers. There is just not enough distress to matter.

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[35:19] if these people enter the market when you've got what give or take 8 900,000 homes for sale you can have bidding wars again it it's you know it's going to happen uh but we'll see

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[23:01] I will become very bearish on the housing market in the mid 2040s. Okay? That's when I get really bearish because we're going to have a problem there.

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[16:09] the average house in Ohio going to have to go down 60% versus 34% in the last recession

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[16:25] imagine what high-end real estate does in New York or California, you know, or places like that. Um 70-80%. This has never happened.

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[36:30] in in the real estate market you need a between at le I would say around my work shows around 30%. Between 25 and 30% that would bring the home price to income ratio close to where it should be. Um so that's a minimum uh drop.

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[2:30] home prices are up mid single digits there and likely to continue to rise. I live in Cleveland, similar story, really no development, home prices are still up mid single digits.

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[18:30] multifamily should be back poised to see better rent growth. And we think that starts to happen in '27.

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[16:13] that's set to pick back up again because there was an exclusion where you can build for rent would be allowed for institutional investors and there was legislation that kind of was suggesting that wasn't going to be the case.

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[17:38] Home prices have to drop using that same logic, home price income ratios have to drop about 30% just to go back to historical normal levels.

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[5:43] Home prices are about 30% overvalued. That's 20% of our economy. The real estate market is essentially frozen... They need to reset. And they will eventually.

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[0:07] we're going to round the corner to Q4 and we're going to have a lot more distressed sales than we've seen uh previously.

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[1:39] Yes, I still believe that because there's no buyers. um there's no buyers and so the general state of the housing market right now is that the selling season was an extreme disappointment for everyone... I do believe that this will be likely worse than what we went through because of our demographics and because the institutional investors, you know, kind of bailed us out last time by buying up those homes to do long-term rental.

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[13:57] we are going to see an increase and a significant one by Q1 of foreclosure sales.

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[9:28] already K. Schiller has seen in 41 of the largest 100 markets in the country year-over-year price declines. And so, like, let's take my series. Last year, there were 23 year-over-year in June. This, you know, there's 32 this year. So this thing is just it's moving Adam is just moving very very slowly

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[3:03] I don't want to sugarcoat the fact that I think there's still a lot of negativity ahead on average for the national housing market.

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[10:02] What I think we're going to see even more of in the future is people who bought with these high prices and high payments are going to end up selling in distress.

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[15:29] What I think we're going to see is just more of that pressure build over the next year, especially as more and more of the existing owner population converts to the higher mortgage rates.

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[20:02] I think we could just continue to see this low demand that we've now seen for four years. I think we could see it for another four years. Now, it'll improve a little bit over those four years, but I don't think we're anywhere close to buyers jumping back in.

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[12:39] This is the first time that we're actually really starting to see price points that are 2017, 2018, 2019 price points for sale on the market. And uh this is actually something I did myself two or three months ago as well.

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[38:33] If you see a big downward forecast like in Colorado, 6% in a year at a state level is a huge downward forecast. Washington were minus 6% as well.

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[30:09] Housing's going to go down not as much as the stock market, but 50-60-70% and David, that is what's the worst thing for the economy.

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[30:38] real estate will never be the same when we come out of this downturn, okay? Because real estate lasts forever, unlike stocks and other investments, and and basically is the baby boom dies out, there's going to be not enough investment to keep real estate will actually have negative net demand trends because baby boomers will start selling faster than millennials are buying

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[35:40] we're we're very positive on yield sensitive, rate sensitive industries like housing and to some extent financials. And bond yields coming down as inflation sort of cools off through the rest of year, I think it's going to be positive for the broader markets as a whole, not just tech.

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[21:34] home building activity is going to remain structurally squeezed... it's going to be an area that I think remains uh difficult uh regardless of what happens with energy costs just because of the structural underinvestment that's been going on over the last 20 years and what's likely to persist.

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[38:18] we're seeing home price declines expand beyond just the sunb belt.

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[47:03] my view would be that there is a big disappointment coming. That both home prices will go down and stocks price will go down.

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[1:33] home prices g nationally are starting to roll. There's still some bright spots in the blue cities. So, uh nationally, they're starting to roll over and that's 20% of the economy... So that should should filter in over the next uh 6 to 12 months as construction layoffs continue.

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[38:39] So we like the home builders. It's you have to buy the home builders when there's no hope. Right. That there's lots of people that don't have a home, but there's no hope. And that means you're getting low prices... we own LAR, we own Horton, and we own NVR. And and and and we we we think they have a bright future.

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[26:07] I just can't see mortgage rates really coming down... it's really hard to see the housing market at large picking up with interest rates where they are.

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[3:56] Housing prices are finally starting to give up the ghost. We had some bad home price declines in March, February, and March... home price declines really started in the south near the border... we're starting to see national prices come down

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[30:46] Residential I think will be I think it'll be under the water for a long long time because of your demographics. You have this baby boomers that own all the big houses or all the houses and they have this idea in their mind about the house is worth. So they're stuck on it and they and they'll take it off the market and put it back on but it doesn't sell. And we're probably in that situation for a long time now.

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[27:36] I think the first wave will be you know significant wave probably the first 10 to 12% will happen over the next couple of years.

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[18:22] what that means is likely about a 35 to 50% correction depending on where you are... I think at this point it's very likely... this is going to take a very long time to happen.

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[29:54] we are going to start to see foreclosure sales go up significantly by the end of this year.

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[20:42] we're starting to see our first prime weakness now. So, FHA had been the driver... But now, what you're starting to see is the Prime books. That's Fanny and Freddy, and this should be pristine credit. And now, what they've done over the past several years... now you're seeing it on in the agency books. Um like it's happening.

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[15:16] What's happening is big cities, San Francisco, LA, New York are going to see a decline in in housing prices, but we're going to see a rise in housing prices in secondary markets.

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[36:52] and then by Q4 uh you are going to have a material population as those people that called in November um are basically uh cuz those three months they didn't pay their trial payments they're al they're going that would have to go into the forbearance. So, right around Q4 after the election is when you're going to start to see uh and I'm not laughing about this, it's just the data just got really interesting and and so but you're you're going to start to see a real material buildup of sales.

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[20:57] Again, you still think nationally prices could go down somewhere in the 35% range. And nationally, we're still what I mean, are we even down more than a%? We're not even negative yet.

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[21:43] Um, but when I saw that Freddy Mack home price index, um, I I I think it was yesterday or two days ago, I was like, 'Oh, no.' like this this actually could we could for the first time in many many many years not peak out completely in June.

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[18:05] so it's we're going to see that correction and it could actually happen a little bit faster in the Midwest because I think their realization will come faster.

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[20:20] I don't think we've hit the bottom. I think a lot of people are saying we've hit the bottom in San Francisco. Um I think if we have any sort of correction and uh any of these stocks like Nvidia like the B we haven't even begun there. So I think we're again at this sort of turning point. Um but no I don't think Austin is dawn. I really don't.

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[0:18] By the end of this year, I think real estate pricing is going to be sharply lower.

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[23:21] my own time frame for real estate is that we peak this or next year and pull back into probably 28 20 20 and that should be a cyclical long-term low for the real estate market.

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[4:11] I believe we will see some slowdown in purchase activity again. It's a big big country. There's all kinds of different markets, but I would suggest on average we will see a slowdown in in new home purchase.

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[2:52] I think we do here at Reventure, Adam. I mean, we have downward forecasts for about half of the US housing market in 2026 based on current data, based on the current data and inventory and days on market. That's not really yet factoring in this recent sales report. And if this demand continues to trend negatively uh like we expected to over the next couple months, I think we're going to probably have to revise down our forecasts in quite a few different states and cities.

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[4:51] I think probably by the middle to the end of 2026, Reenture might have some buy signals in markets like Austin, uh potentially some markets in Florida where the values have really gone down a lot already.

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[20:48] I think housing prices are in fact going to be coming down uh slowly but surely that will erode the confidence in the spending habits

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[10:28] we're already sowing the seeds for a further acceleration in rents probably sometime in the back half of next year into 2027

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[15:51] I think home prices over the next handful of years are going to decline.

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[0:09] Rents are going to double in the next 15 years in America. They're going to go from 2 grand to 4,500 bucks a month.

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[27:29] I think we're going to see a slow, steady improvement in home sales as affordability, while still really poor, is improving and we should see some more transactions.

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[17:54] we're going to see home prices decline.

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[13:58] that means that there will be continued downward pressure on prices

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[19:38] housing values at best go flat nationwide which means some markets half the markets in the country are going to experience declines.

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[27:02] I think uh US real estate is uh has peaked again it had a good run in the last few years but real estate home prices have peaked.

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[34:47] I think we're going to see home prices drop another 15 to 20% uh on average across the board

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