US Housing Market Predictions

[3:56] Housing prices are finally starting to give up the ghost. We had some bad home price declines in March, February, and March... home price declines really started in the south near the border... we're starting to see national prices come down

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[30:46] Residential I think will be I think it'll be under the water for a long long time because of your demographics. You have this baby boomers that own all the big houses or all the houses and they have this idea in their mind about the house is worth. So they're stuck on it and they and they'll take it off the market and put it back on but it doesn't sell. And we're probably in that situation for a long time now.

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[27:36] I think the first wave will be you know significant wave probably the first 10 to 12% will happen over the next couple of years.

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[18:22] what that means is likely about a 35 to 50% correction depending on where you are... I think at this point it's very likely... this is going to take a very long time to happen.

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[29:54] we are going to start to see foreclosure sales go up significantly by the end of this year.

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[20:42] we're starting to see our first prime weakness now. So, FHA had been the driver... But now, what you're starting to see is the Prime books. That's Fanny and Freddy, and this should be pristine credit. And now, what they've done over the past several years... now you're seeing it on in the agency books. Um like it's happening.

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[15:16] What's happening is big cities, San Francisco, LA, New York are going to see a decline in in housing prices, but we're going to see a rise in housing prices in secondary markets.

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[36:52] and then by Q4 uh you are going to have a material population as those people that called in November um are basically uh cuz those three months they didn't pay their trial payments they're al they're going that would have to go into the forbearance. So, right around Q4 after the election is when you're going to start to see uh and I'm not laughing about this, it's just the data just got really interesting and and so but you're you're going to start to see a real material buildup of sales.

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[20:57] Again, you still think nationally prices could go down somewhere in the 35% range. And nationally, we're still what I mean, are we even down more than a%? We're not even negative yet.

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[21:43] Um, but when I saw that Freddy Mack home price index, um, I I I think it was yesterday or two days ago, I was like, 'Oh, no.' like this this actually could we could for the first time in many many many years not peak out completely in June.

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[18:05] so it's we're going to see that correction and it could actually happen a little bit faster in the Midwest because I think their realization will come faster.

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[20:20] I don't think we've hit the bottom. I think a lot of people are saying we've hit the bottom in San Francisco. Um I think if we have any sort of correction and uh any of these stocks like Nvidia like the B we haven't even begun there. So I think we're again at this sort of turning point. Um but no I don't think Austin is dawn. I really don't.

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[4:11] I believe we will see some slowdown in purchase activity again. It's a big big country. There's all kinds of different markets, but I would suggest on average we will see a slowdown in in new home purchase.

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[2:52] I think we do here at Reventure, Adam. I mean, we have downward forecasts for about half of the US housing market in 2026 based on current data, based on the current data and inventory and days on market. That's not really yet factoring in this recent sales report. And if this demand continues to trend negatively uh like we expected to over the next couple months, I think we're going to probably have to revise down our forecasts in quite a few different states and cities.

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[4:51] I think probably by the middle to the end of 2026, Reenture might have some buy signals in markets like Austin, uh potentially some markets in Florida where the values have really gone down a lot already.

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[20:48] I think housing prices are in fact going to be coming down uh slowly but surely that will erode the confidence in the spending habits

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[10:28] we're already sowing the seeds for a further acceleration in rents probably sometime in the back half of next year into 2027

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[15:51] I think home prices over the next handful of years are going to decline.

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[0:09] Rents are going to double in the next 15 years in America. They're going to go from 2 grand to 4,500 bucks a month.

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[27:29] I think we're going to see a slow, steady improvement in home sales as affordability, while still really poor, is improving and we should see some more transactions.

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[17:54] we're going to see home prices decline.

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[13:58] that means that there will be continued downward pressure on prices

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[19:38] housing values at best go flat nationwide which means some markets half the markets in the country are going to experience declines.

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[27:02] I think uh US real estate is uh has peaked again it had a good run in the last few years but real estate home prices have peaked.

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[34:47] I think we're going to see home prices drop another 15 to 20% uh on average across the board

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