Predictor Rankings

Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
Pending predictions are excluded from scores and could significantly change rankings once resolved.
Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
Score = Wilson score lower bound (95% confidence interval). Penalizes small samples — 1/1 ranks lower than 10/13.
Raw accuracy shown as X/Y.
Only predictors with 5+ graded predictions are shown.

# Person Total Correct Wrong Pending Accuracy Score

1 Peter Grandich 32 10 3 19 10/13 (77%) 50%

2 Gary Wagner 23 9 3 11 9/12 (75%) 47%

3 Clem Chambers 51 7 3 41 7/10 (70%) 40%

4 Thomas Hayes 26 4 1 21 4/5 (80%) 38%

5 Gareth Soloway 60 17 15 28 17/32 (53%) 36%

6 Jason Shapiro 13 5 2 6 5/7 (71%) 36%

7 Sam Burns 9 4 2 3 4/6 (67%) 30%

8 Chris Vermeulen 67 16 21 30 16/37 (43%) 29%

9 Lobo Tiggre 14 3 2 9 3/5 (60%) 23%

10 Jeff Christian 16 4 5 7 4/9 (44%) 19%

11 David Hay 19 4 5 10 4/9 (44%) 19%

12 David Rosenberg 28 3 3 22 3/6 (50%) 19%

13 Michael Gayed 26 4 6 16 4/10 (40%) 17%

14 Jim Bianco 18 3 4 11 3/7 (43%) 16%

15 Doomberg 11 2 3 6 2/5 (40%) 12%

16 Komal Sri-Kumar 12 2 3 7 2/5 (40%) 12%

17 David Woo 15 2 3 10 2/5 (40%) 12%

18 Mark Skousen 8 2 4 2 2/6 (33%) 10%

19 Danielle DiMartino Booth 27 2 5 20 2/7 (29%) 8%

20 Steve Hanke 45 2 8 35 2/10 (20%) 6%

21 Mike McGlone 35 1 4 30 1/5 (20%) 4%